Menai

Menai has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Menai is around 10,507. This figure reflects an increase of 88 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 10,419. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, following examination of the June 2024 ABS ERP data release and address validation since the Census date, is 10,483. This level of population results in a density ratio of 812 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Menai's growth rate of 0.8% since the census places it within 2.3 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.1%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 59.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the suburb.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth, with the suburb expected to grow by 162 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 0.0% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Menai is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Menai averaged around 27 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 135 homes. As of FY-26, 5 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average value of $847,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment.

This financial year, there have been $8.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting Menai's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Menai has 19.0% less new development per person and ranks among the 10th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This lower development rate reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 76.0% detached dwellings and 24.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Menai's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated population per dwelling approval in Menai is 1726 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show Menai adding 2 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Menai has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified two relevant projects: Heathcote Road Upgrade (Infantry Parade to The Avenue), Blaxland Riverside Estate, Revesby Workers Club Redevelopment, and M6 Stage 2.

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Employment conditions in Menai demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Menai has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 2.6% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 1.5%. As of September 2025, 6,000 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.6%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is 73.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. A high 44.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Education & training has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have limited presence at 8.4%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the working population vs resident population count. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 1.5% while the labour force grew by 0.9%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney where employment rose by 2.1%, the labour force grew by 2.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Menai's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Menai's median income among taxpayers was $61,623, with an average of $81,191. Nationally, these figures are extremely high compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year ending June 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $67,083 (median) and $88,385 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Menai rank highly nationally, between the 78th and 92nd percentiles. Income distribution shows that 30.2% of Menai's population, equating to 3,173 individuals, fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the broader area where 30.9% occupy this range. Economic strength is evident with 42.4% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 14.5% of income, while strong earnings rank residents within the 91st percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Menai is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Menai's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.3% houses and 24.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Menai stood at 36.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.5% and rented ones at 14.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,600, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Menai was $560, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Menai's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Menai features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.5% of all households, including 48.3% couples with children, 24.2% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 14.5%, with lone person households at 13.6% and group households comprising 0.9%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Menai shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Menai trails Greater Sydney's educational qualifications benchmark, with 28.7% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the regional average of 38.0%. This gap presents potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 20.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 36.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.0%) and certificates (23.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Menai has 66 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 35 different routes that together facilitate 1,629 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a resident's home to the nearest transport stop is 172 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. Most residents commute outside Menai, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 88%. Train usage stands at 7%. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling in Menai, higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 44.1% of residents work from home, a figure possibly influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 232 trips per day, equating to approximately 24 weekly trips per individual stop.

Menai's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

AreaSearch's assessment indicates Menai exhibits robust health metrics, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Approximately 59% of its total population (6,197 people) has private health cover, which is exceptionally high. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 7.7 and 7.3% of residents respectively. Notably, 72.3% of Menai's residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The under-65 population in Menai demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 16.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,712 people), with seniors' health outcomes aligning broadly with the general population's national rankings.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Menai was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Menai's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 19.9% born overseas and 17.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Menai, accounting for 70.3%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (25.6%), English (24.0%), and Other (8.8%).

Notably, Macedonian (2.0%) and Greek (3.7%) groups are overrepresented in Menai compared to regional averages of 0.4% and 1.9%, respectively. Conversely, the Lebanese group is underrepresented at 1.6%, with a regional average of 2.6%.

Menai's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Menai is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and close to Australia's national average of 38 years. Comparing Menai with Greater Sydney, the cohort aged 5-14 is over-represented at 14.5% locally, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 10.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the age group 75 to 84 has grown from 4.0% to 5.9% of Menai's population. Conversely, the age group 55 to 64 has declined from 14.8% to 12.7%, and the age group 25 to 34 has dropped from 11.3% to 10.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Menai, with the age group 75 to 84 expected to grow by 56% (344 people), reaching a total of 964 from 619. This growth is led by residents aged 65 and older, who represent 75% of anticipated population growth. Conversely, the cohorts aged 15-24 and 25-34 are expected to experience population declines.