Panton Hill - St Andrews

An assessment of population growth drivers in Panton Hill - St Andrews reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Panton Hill - St Andrews's population is around 5,155 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 64 people (1.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,091 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 5,153 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 4 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 17.6 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Panton Hill - St Andrews's 1.3% growth since the census positions it within 1.5 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.8%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 54.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of statistical areas across the nation is forecast, with the area expected to expand by 1,051 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 20.4% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Panton Hill - St Andrews is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Panton Hill - St Andrews has seen around 8 new homes approved annually, with 41 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 6 so far in FY-26. Given population has fallen over the past period, development activity has been adequate in relative terms, which is a positive for buyers, while new homes are being built at an average value of $525,000, demonstrating a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. There have also been $1.1 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating minimal commercial development activity.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Panton Hill - St Andrews has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 23rd percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. This level is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. Meanwhile, new construction has been completely comprised of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 688 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Panton Hill - St Andrews will gain 1,049 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Panton Hill - St Andrews has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 41 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Diamond Creek Trail Extension to Hurstbridge, Winneke Solar Farm, Kangaroo Ground intersection maintenance works, and the 1025 Yan Yean Road Development Plan, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Panton Hill - St Andrews demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Panton Hill - St Andrews features a well-educated workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.3%, and 0.8% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 3,070 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.5% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is on par with Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a high 32.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average. Conversely, retail trade shows lower representation at 6.7% versus the regional average of 9.8%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.8% while the labour force increased by 1.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. This compares to Greater Melbourne, where employment grew by 2.4%, the labour force expanded by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Panton Hill - St Andrews. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to the employment mix of Panton Hill - St Andrews suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Panton Hill - St Andrews SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $56,933 with the average level standing at $77,103. This is well above average nationally and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $61,630 (median) and $83,464 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household incomes rank exceptionally at the 81st percentile ($2,254 weekly). Income analysis reveals the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 30.4% of the community (1,567 individuals), mirroring the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. The district demonstrates considerable affluence with 36.9% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. After housing costs, residents retain 89.0% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Panton Hill - St Andrews is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Panton Hill - St Andrews, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 99.8% houses and 0.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Panton Hill - St Andrews was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 48.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (44.9%) or rented (6.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Melbourne metro average at $2,200, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Panton Hill - St Andrews's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Panton Hill - St Andrews features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 83.9% of all households, comprising 40.2% couples with children, 33.1% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 16.1%, with lone person households at 13.9% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.9 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Panton Hill - St Andrews shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Panton Hill - St Andrews trail regional benchmarks, with 31.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 19.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.7%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 37.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (13.3%) and certificates (23.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.6% of residents aged 15+ currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in secondary education, 8.9% in primary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 2 active transport stops operating within Panton Hill - St Andrews, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 1 individual route, collectively providing 368 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 5559 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.4 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 32.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 52 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 184 weekly trips per individual stop.

Panton Hill - St Andrews's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Panton Hill - St Andrews, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~2,938 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.0% and 7.7% of residents, respectively, while 69.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 24.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,281 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Panton Hill - St Andrews is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Panton Hill - St Andrews was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 87.0% of its population born in Australia, 91.9% being citizens, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Panton Hill - St Andrews is Christianity, which makes up 38.3% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.2% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Panton Hill - St Andrews are English, comprising 32.4% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 28.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Irish, comprising 10.7% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Scottish is notably overrepresented at 9.4% of Panton Hill - St Andrews (vs 5.6% regionally), Dutch at 1.5% (vs 1.2%) and Italian at 3.8% (vs 5.2%).

Panton Hill - St Andrews hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

At 48 years, Panton Hill - St Andrews's median age is significantly above the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and similarly considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows 65 - 74 year-olds are particularly prominent (15.1%), while the 25 - 34 group is comparatively smaller (6.2%) than in Greater Melbourne. This 65 - 74 concentration is well above the national 9.5%. In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.3% to 8.1% of the population, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 13.8% to 15.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 15.6% to 13.5% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 18.2% to 16.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Panton Hill - St Andrews. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 66%, adding 277 residents to reach 695. Senior residents (65+) will drive 56% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, the 35 to 44 cohort grows by a modest 2% (8 people).