Panton Hill - St Andrews
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Panton Hill - St Andrews reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Panton Hill-St Andrews' population, as of Aug 2025, is approximately 5,158, reflecting a 67-person increase from the 2021 Census figure of 5,091. This growth, representing a 1.3% rise since the census, was inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses. The population density stands at 17.7 persons per square kilometer. Panton Hill-St Andrews' 1.3% growth since the census is within one percentage point of its SA3 area's 2.3%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 54.6% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, the area is expected to grow above median national statistical areas' averages, with a projected increase of 1,051 persons by 2041, representing a total growth of 20.3% over 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Panton Hill - St Andrews is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Panton Hill - St Andrews has recorded approximately eight residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, with 41 homes approved over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25. One property has been approved so far in FY26. Despite population decline in the area, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas, which could be beneficial for buyers.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost of $814,000, indicating a focus on premium properties. This year, $1.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Panton Hill - St Andrews has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 24th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice. This is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

All new construction has been detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. As of now, there are an estimated 688 people per dwelling approval in the area. By 2041, Panton Hill - St Andrews is expected to grow by 1,046 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Panton Hill - St Andrews has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 42 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Diamond Creek Trail Extension to Hurstbridge, Winneke Solar Farm, 1025 Yan Yean Road Development Plan, and Kangaroo Ground intersection maintenance works. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Panton Hill - St Andrews ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Panton Hill - St Andrews has an educated workforce. In the construction sector specifically, it has a high representation with just 1.9% unemployment and 1.4% employment growth in the past year as of June 2025.

There are 3,088 residents employed, with an unemployment rate at 2.7% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is on par with Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Major employment areas include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction stands out with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average, while retail trade has lower representation at 6.7% versus the regional average of 9.8%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 1.4% alongside labour force increasing by 1.4%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, labour force expand by 4.0%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Panton Hill - St Andrews's current employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5%% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode-level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Panton Hill - St Andrews had a median taxpayer income of $52,858 and an average income of $81,821. These figures are among the highest in Australia, compared to Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, current estimates for March 2025 would be approximately $58,202 (median) and $90,093 (average). The 2021 Census ranks household incomes at the 81st percentile with a weekly income of $2,254. Income analysis reveals that 30.4% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, mirroring the region where 32.8% fall into this bracket. The district shows significant affluence with 36.9% earning over $3,000 weekly, supporting premium retail and services. After housing costs, residents retain 89.0% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Panton Hill - St Andrews is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Panton Hill - St Andrews, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.8% houses and 0.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 93.9% houses and 6.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Panton Hill - St Andrews was at 48.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.9% and rented ones at 6.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in the area was $300, lower than Melbourne metro's $431 and Australia's national figure of $375. Nationally, Panton Hill - St Andrews' mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,200 compared to the Australian average of $1,863.

Panton Hill - St Andrews features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 83.9% of all households, consisting of 40.2% couples with children, 33.1% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 16.1%, with lone person households at 13.9% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which corresponds to the Greater Melbourne average.

Panton Hill - St Andrews shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Panton Hill-St Andrews, 31.1% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. This difference indicates potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees are the most common (19.7%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.7%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 37.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 13.3% and certificates at 23.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 9.3% in secondary, 8.9% in primary, and 5.2% in tertiary education. There are nine schools operating within Panton Hill-St Andrews, educating approximately 1,303 students. The area's socio-educational conditions are above average (ICSEA: 1064). The educational mix includes seven primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. Panton Hill-St Andrews functions as an education hub with 25.3 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 14.9, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Panton Hill - St Andrews has two operational public transport stops, served by a mix of bus routes. These stops collectively facilitate 623 weekly passenger trips via one route. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents generally residing 5559 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 89 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 311 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Panton Hill - St Andrews is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Panton Hill - St Andrews shows superior health outcomes for both young and elderly residents, with low prevalence of common conditions. Approximately 61% of its total population of 3,136 has private health cover, exceeding the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (9.0%) and mental health issues (7.7%), while 69.4% report no medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 70.6%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.9% (1,231 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 19.2%. Notably, health outcomes among seniors in Panton Hill - St Andrews are stronger than those of the general population in terms of health metrics.

Panton Hill - St Andrews is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Panton Hill-St Andrews showed below-average cultural diversity, with 87.0% of its population born in Australia, 91.9% being citizens, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 38.3%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.1%.

In ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.4%), Australian (28.1%), and Irish (10.7%). Scottish ancestry was notably overrepresented at 9.4% versus the regional 8.2%, while Dutch and Italian ancestries showed less divergence at 1.5% each compared to their respective regional percentages of 1.5% and 6.2%.

Panton Hill - St Andrews hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Panton Hill - St Andrews has a median age of 48 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that the 65-74 year-old group makes up 14.6% of the population, a figure notably higher than both the Greater Melbourne percentage and the national average of 9.4%. In contrast, the 25-34 year-old group constitutes only 6.3%, which is smaller compared to Greater Melbourne's proportion. From 2021 onwards, the 75-84 age group has increased from 5.3% to 7.8%, while the 15-24 cohort has risen from 13.1% to 14.2%. Conversely, the 45-54 year-old group has decreased from 15.6% to 13.8%, and the 55-64 year-old group has dropped from 18.2% to 16.9%. By 2041, population forecasts suggest substantial demographic changes for Panton Hill - St Andrews. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 74%, adding 295 residents and reaching a total of 695. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 61% of the population growth, indicating prominent demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, the 0-4 year-old cohort is expected to grow modestly by 1%, with an increase of just one person.