Panton Hill - St Andrews

An assessment of population growth drivers in Panton Hill - St Andrews reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Panton Hill - St Andrews' population is around 5,155 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 64 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,091 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 5,153 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 4 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 17.6 persons per square kilometer. Panton Hill - St Andrews' 1.3% growth since census positions it within 1.5 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.8%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 54.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of statistical areas across the nation is forecast, with the area expected to expand by 1,051 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 20.4% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Panton Hill - St Andrews is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Panton Hill - St Andrews has seen approximately eight new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 41 homes were approved, with an additional five approved so far in FY26. Despite a falling population during this period, the development activity has been relatively adequate, which is positive for buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $525,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year has seen $1.1 million in commercial approvals, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Panton Hill - St Andrews has about two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person. Nationally, it ranks around the 23rd percentile of areas assessed, offering more limited housing choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings.

This level is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and suggesting possible planning constraints. All new construction in the area has been standalone homes, maintaining its traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 688 people, indicating a quiet, low-activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Panton Hill - St Andrews will gain 1,049 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Panton Hill - St Andrews has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 41 projects likely impacting the region. Notable projects include Diamond Creek Trail Extension to Hurstbridge, Winneke Solar Farm in Kangaroo Ground, intersection maintenance works, and Yan Yean Road Development Plan at 1025 Yan Yean Road. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Panton Hill - St Andrews demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Panton Hill - St Andrews has a well-educated workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. As of September 2025, unemployment stands at 2.1%. Over the past year, employment stability has been relatively consistent.

Compared to Greater Melbourne's unemployment rate of 4.7%, Panton Hill - St Andrews' rate is 2.5% lower. Workforce participation matches Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Census responses indicate that 32.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Construction employment levels are particularly high at 2.1 times the regional average, while retail trade shows lower representation at 6.7%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force levels increased by 0.1%, but employment declined by 0.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% over the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth rates of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, applying these projections to Panton Hill - St Andrews' specific industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Panton Hill - St Andrews SA2 had median income among taxpayers of $56,933 with average level at $77,103. This is above national average and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $61,630 (median) and $83,464 (average) as of September 2025. From the Census conducted in August 2021, household incomes rank at 81st percentile ($2,254 weekly). Income analysis shows that 30.4% of community (1,567 individuals) falls within $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band, similar to the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. The district exhibits considerable affluence with 36.9% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. After housing costs, residents retain 89.0% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. Area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Panton Hill - St Andrews is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Panton Hill - St Andrews, according to the latest Census, had 99.8% houses and 0.2% other dwellings compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Panton Hill - St Andrews was 48.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.9% and rented ones at 6.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in the area was $300, lower than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Panton Hill - St Andrews' mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Panton Hill - St Andrews features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 83.9% of all households, including 40.2% couples with children, 33.1% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 16.1%, with lone person households at 13.9% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Panton Hill - St Andrews shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Panton Hill show that 31.1% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. This indicates a potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 19.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 6.7% and graduate diplomas at 4.7%. Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 37.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 13.3% and certificates at 23.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in secondary education, 8.9% in primary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows two active stops operating in Panton Hill - St Andrews, with a mix of bus services. These stops are served by one individual route, collectively offering 368 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically located 5559 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature, and cars remain the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.4 per dwelling, above the regional average. A high 32.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census).

Service frequency averages 52 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 184 weekly trips per individual stop.

Panton Hill - St Andrews's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Panton Hill - St Andrews shows excellent health outcomes according to AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups. Private health cover is high at approximately 57% of the total population (around 2,938 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 9.0% and 7.7% of residents respectively. 69.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are typical. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 24.9% (1,281 people), compared to 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Senior health outcomes are strong and align with national rankings.

Panton Hill - St Andrews is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Panton Hill-St Andrews, as per the 2016 Census, showed low cultural diversity with 87.0% of its population born in Australia, 91.9% being citizens, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 38.3%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, English (32.4%) and Australian (28.1%) were significantly higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4% respectively. Irish ancestry stood at 10.7%. Notable divergences included overrepresentation of Scottish (9.4%), Dutch (1.5%), and Italian (3.8%) groups compared to regional averages.

Panton Hill - St Andrews hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Panton Hill - St Andrews has a median age of 48 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that the 65-74 year-old group comprises 15.1% of the population, compared to the national average of 9.5%. This group has increased from 13.8% in 2021 to 15.1% currently. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has decreased from 15.6% to 13.5%, and the 55-64 group has dropped from 18.2% to 16.3%. The 75-84 age group has grown from 5.3% in 2021 to 8.1% currently, with projections indicating a significant increase of 66% by 2041, adding 277 residents to reach 695. This strong projected growth for the 75-84 cohort suggests that senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 56% of population growth in Panton Hill - St Andrews by 2041. In contrast, the 35-44 age group is projected to grow by a modest 2%, adding only 8 people.