Mernda - North

Mernda - North lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Mernda - North's population was around 12,061 as of May 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 634 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,427. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,061 in June 2025 and an additional 119 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 793 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Mernda - North has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 4.9%, outpacing its SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 51.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth, placing Mernda - North in the top 10 percent of Australian statistical areas, is predicted over the period with an expected population increase of 7,612 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 63.1% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Mernda - North when compared nationally

Mernda - North has seen approximately 35 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, with a total of 176 homes approved between FY21-FY25 and an additional 13 approved in FY26. This results in an average of around 5.3 new residents arriving per dwelling constructed each year during this period. The demand for housing significantly outpaces supply, which typically exerts upward pressure on prices and intensifies competition among buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $143,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. Commercial approvals registered in FY26 amount to $147,000, suggesting minimal commercial development activity in the area. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mernda - North records significantly lower building activity, at 78.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new homes tends to strengthen demand and prices for existing properties. The building activity in Mernda - North is also below national averages, which can reflect the area's maturity and potential planning constraints. New building activity comprises 44.0% standalone homes and 56.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift towards higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable change from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 84.0% houses.

The estimated population per dwelling approval in Mernda - North is 1668 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch quarterly estimates, the population is forecasted to grow by 7,612 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the area.

Mernda - North has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 35thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones are Mernda Town Centre, Regional Sports Precinct Mernda, Mernda Rise Estate, and River Run. The following list details projects of highest relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Mernda - North maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Mernda - North has a well-educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.4% as of December 2025, which is 0.4% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.2%.

There were 6,590 residents in work by December 2025, with workforce participation at 73.5%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. Approximately 23.4% of residents worked from home based on Census responses. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.5% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census working population versus resident population data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.2%, labour force grew by 1.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia for May-25 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Mernda - North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Mernda - North SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $56,680 and an average of $65,021. Both figures are below the national averages. Greater Melbourne's median was $57,688 with an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $62,133 (median) and $71,276 (average). Census data indicates Mernda - North's household, family, and personal incomes are around the 59th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 39.0% of individuals in this area earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to regional levels at 32.8%. High housing costs consume 18.4% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 56th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Mernda - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Mernda - North's dwelling structure at the latest Census showed 83.8% houses and 16.1% other dwellings, compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mernda - North was 16.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 54.6% and rented at 28.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,900, below Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $378, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Mernda - North's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,900 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375 at $378.

Mernda - North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 80.2% of all households, including 44.4% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 13.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 19.8%, with lone person households at 18.1% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Mernda - North shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Mernda, as of 2021 data, 31.1% of residents aged 15 and above held university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. The most common degree was the Bachelor's (19.8%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials were also prevalent, with 33.3% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (20.6%). Educational participation was high, with 33.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including primary (13.1%), secondary (7.4%), and tertiary (4.2%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.1% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 35 active transport stops operating in Mernda - North. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling seven individual routes that provide 3,140 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 267 metres from the nearest transport stop. In this primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward. The car remains the dominant mode of transport at 88%, while train use stands at 8%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, some 23.4% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 448 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 89 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Mernda - North is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Mernda North shows better-than-average health outcomes according to AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average for older and at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 51% (~6,175 people) have private health cover, lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. Common medical conditions include asthma (7.4%) and mental health issues (7.0%), with 74.8% reporting no medical ailments compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 12.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,483 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Mernda - North was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Mernda-North scores highly in cultural diversity, with 35.6% of its population born overseas and 38.5% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, comprising 47.8%. Hinduism is notably overrepresented at 9.5%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 4.4%.

In ancestry, the top three groups are Australian (18.7%), English (18.1%), and Other (17.6%). Some ethnic groups show notable divergences: Macedonian is overrepresented at 2.5% (vs regional 0.7%), Indian at 7.6% (vs 4.2%), and Sri Lankan at 0.9% (vs 0.8%).

Mernda - North hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Mernda North's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 35-44 age group has a strong representation at 21.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 11.7%. This concentration in the 35-44 age group is well above the national average of 14.3%. Between 2021 and present, residents have aged by an average of 1 year, with the median age rising from 34 to 35 years. Key changes include the growth of the 45 to 54 age group from 10.8% to 13.2%, and the increase of the 15 to 24 cohort from 9.9% to 11.9%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 15.9% to 11.7%, and the 0 to 4 age group dropped from 9.2% to 6.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Mernda North, with the strongest projected growth in the 45 to 54 cohort, which is expected to grow by 95%, adding 1,507 residents to reach a total of 3,098.