Mernda - South

Mernda - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Mernda - South's population was around 13,854 as of May 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 1,914 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,940. The change is inferred from ABS estimates: 13,854 in June 2025 and an additional 349 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 1,605 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Mernda - South's growth rate of 16.0% since the Census exceeded both state (9.3%) and national averages. Overseas migration contributed approximately 42.6% to overall population gains recently, with all drivers being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024, based on 2022 data. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made using weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Mernda - South is predicted to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of Australian statistical areas. By 2041, the area is expected to increase by 9,359 persons, reflecting a total increase of 67.5% over the 16-year period, according to the latest annual ERP population numbers.

The level of residential development activity in Mernda - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Mernda - South averaged approximately 113 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 569 homes. As of FY26, 70 approvals have been recorded. On average, 4.5 new residents arrived per year for each dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25. This suggests supply is lagging demand, potentially leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

The average construction value of new homes was $303,000, consistent with regional patterns. In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $702,000, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mernda - South shows around 65% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 86th percentile nationally in terms of assessed areas.

New developments consisted of 87.0% standalone homes and 13.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes. With approximately 112 people per dwelling approval, Mernda - South exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mernda - South is projected to add 9,359 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Mernda - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 23 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Mernda Town Centre, Regional Sports Precinct Mernda, Mernda Villages by Stockland, and Mernda Rise Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Mernda - South shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Mernda - South has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.6%, with a 1.3% employment growth over the past year (ending December 2025). As of this date, 7,772 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation is high at 77.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. A moderate 22.9% of residents work from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries include health care & social assistance (1.3 times the regional average), construction, and retail trade. Professional & technical services have limited presence at 5.7%, compared to 10.1% regionally.

Local employment opportunities appear limited, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.3%, labour force grew by 1.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4%, labour force grow by 2.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May-25) project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mernda - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not consider localised population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The Mernda - South SA2 has an income level slightly above average nationally based on latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in this area is $59,796 and the average income stands at $68,595. These figures compare to those of Greater Melbourne, which are $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Mernda - South's median income would be approximately $65,548 and the average income $75,194 as of March 2026. According to Census 2021 income data, incomes in Mernda - South cluster around the 70th percentile nationally. Income analysis shows that 44.8% of locals (6,206 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consume 17.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 69th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Mernda - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Mernda - South's dwellings, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 95.3% houses and 4.7% other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In contrast, Melbourne metropolitan area had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mernda - South was at 12.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.7% and rented ones at 27.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Mernda - South was $390, matching Melbourne metro's figure but higher than the national average of $375. Nationally, Mernda - South's median monthly mortgage repayment was higher at $1,950 compared to the Australian average of $1,863.

Mernda - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 86.2% of all households, including 52.7% couples with children, 18.9% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 13.8%, with lone person households at 11.8% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 3.2 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Mernda - South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Mernda's residents aged 15+ have a university degree rate of 31.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 19.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 35.3% of residents, with advanced diplomas at 13.9% and certificates at 21.4%. Educational participation is high, with 34.6% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (13.9%), secondary (7.8%), and tertiary (4.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.9% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mernda - South has 47 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 9 different routes that collectively facilitate 8,016 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically residing 237 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential region, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 88%, while 8% use trains. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, which exceeds the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 22.9% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 1,145 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 170 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mernda - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Mernda - South shows excellent health outcomes according to AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence across different age groups. Both younger and older residents have low prevalence of common health conditions.

The area has a high rate of private health cover at approximately 53% of its total population (~7,384 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. Asthma and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 7.2% and 6.9% of residents respectively. Notably, 78.6% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 6.9%, with 953 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Although health outcomes among seniors are above average, they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Mernda - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Mernda-South has notable cultural diversity, with 37.1% of its population born overseas and 42.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Mernda-South, accounting for 46.2% of people. However, there's an overrepresentation in the 'Other' religious category, comprising 5.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (18.1%), Australian (17.7%), and English (15.3%). There are significant divergences in certain ethnic groups: Macedonian is overrepresented at 3.1% versus 0.7% regionally, Indian at 10.5% versus 4.2%, and Sri Lankan at 1.2% versus 0.8%.

Mernda - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Mernda-South has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mernda-South has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (17.2%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (4.4%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.0%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, residents have aged by an average of 1.0 years, with the median age rising from 32 to 33. Specifically, the 45 to 54 age group has increased from 11.7% to 13.7% of the population, while the 55 to 64 cohort has risen from 6.4% to 7.8%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 17.1% to 14.3%, and the 0 to 4 age group has dropped from 9.9% to 7.6%. Demographic projections suggest that Mernda-South's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 45 to 54 age cohort projected to grow exceptionally, expanding by 2,168 people (115%) from 1,891 to 4,060.