Mernda - South
Statistical Area - sa2

Mernda - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Mernda - South's population is around 14,047 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 2,107 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,940 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,526 in June 2024 and an additional 350 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,627 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Mernda - South's growth rate of 17.6% since the 2021 census exceeded both the national average (8.6%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 42.4% of overall population gains during recent periods, with overseas migration and interstate migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate exceptional growth, placing Mernda - South in the top 10 percent of national areas, with an expected growth of 9,576 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 64.5% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Mernda - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Mernda - South has seen approximately 113 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 569 approvals across the past five financial years from FY2021 to FY2025, with 18 approvals so far in FY2026. Over these five years, an average of 4.5 new residents arrived per dwelling constructed annually. Supply has substantially lagged demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $408,000, which is under regional levels, indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers. This financial year has seen $702,000 in commercial development approvals recorded, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mernda - South shows approximately 66% of the construction activity per person and places among the 86th percentile of areas assessed nationally.

New development consists of 87.0% standalone homes and 13.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 112 people per dwelling approval, Mernda - South shows characteristics of a growth area. Future projections show Mernda - South adding 9,055 residents by 2041. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Mernda - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 24 projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include Mernda Villages by Stockland, Mernda Community Hospital, Regional Sports Precinct Mernda, and Mernda Town Centre. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market in Mernda - South shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Mernda - South has a well-educated workforce with low unemployment. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 3.2%, below Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.2%. There are 7,536 residents in work and workforce participation is high at 73.1%. Key industries of employment include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance has particularly notable concentration with levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have limited presence, at 5.7% compared to the regional 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data. From June 2024 to June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.2% and labour force by 1.4%, reducing unemployment by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5%. State-level data to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with differing rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Mernda - South's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Mernda - South's median income among taxpayers was $56,435 and average income was $64,798 in financial year 2022. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $62,141 (median) and $71,349 (average). Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Mernda - South cluster around the 70th percentile nationally. Income analysis reveals that 44.8% of locals (6,293 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. High housing costs consume 17.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 69th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Mernda - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Mernda - South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.3% houses and 4.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 87.2% houses and 12.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mernda - South stood at 12.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.7% and rented ones at 27.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,900. The median weekly rent was $390, compared to Melbourne metro's $371. Nationally, Mernda - South's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863, and rents exceeded the national average of $375.

Mernda - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 86.2% of all households, including 52.7% couples with children, 18.9% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 13.8%, comprising 11.8% lone person households and 1.8% group households. The median household size is 3.2 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Mernda - South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Mernda South's educational qualifications indicate 31.1% of residents aged 15+ have university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 19.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 35.3% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 13.9% and certificates at 21.4%. Educational participation is high, with 34.6% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (13.9%), secondary (7.8%), and tertiary (4.5%).

As of the 2021 census, Mernda South has four schools with a combined enrollment of 2,383 students. The area's socio-educational conditions are above average, with an ICSEA score of 1058. The educational mix includes one primary school and three K-12 schools. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 17.0 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 13.1, suggesting Mernda South serves as an educational hub for the broader region.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis indicates 47 active transport stops operating within the Mernda - South area, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 9 individual routes, collectively facilitating 11,377 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 238 meters from their nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages around 1,625 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly 242 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mernda - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Mernda - South, with both younger and older age cohorts experiencing a low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~7,290 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area's 49.8%.

This compares to Greater Melbourne's 49.8%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.2 and 6.9% of residents respectively. Conversely, 78.6% report being completely free of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 74.0%. There are 6.6% residents aged 65 and over (931 people), lower than the 13.2% in Greater Melbourne. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

Mernda - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Mernda-South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 37.1% of its population born overseas and 42.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Mernda-South, accounting for 46.2% of people there, compared to 4.4% across Greater Melbourne as of 2016. The proportion of Other religions in Mernda-South was notably higher at 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were Other (18.1%), Australian (17.7%), and English (15.3%). There were also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Macedonian was overrepresented at 3.1% compared to 4.6% regionally, Indian at 10.5% versus 6.2%, and Sri Lankan at 1.2% compared to 0.8%.

Mernda - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Mernda-South has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mernda-South has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (21.4%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (4.3%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.2%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 45 to 54 has increased from 11.7% to 13.2%, while the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 17.1% to 14.5%. The percentage of residents aged 0 to 4 has also dropped, from 9.9% to 8.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic shifts in Mernda-South. The 45 to 54 age group is projected to grow by 120%, adding 2,219 residents and reaching a total of 4,069.