Mernda - South
Statistical Area - sa2

Mernda - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Mernda - South's population is approximately 14,047 as of November 2025. This figure reflects a growth of 2,107 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,940 people. The increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,526 in June 2024 and an additional 350 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,627 persons per square kilometer, which exceeds the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Mernda - South's growth rate of 17.6% since the 2021 census is higher than both the national average (8.9%) and the state average, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 42.4% of overall population gains during recent periods, with overseas migration and interstate migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Mernda - South is expected to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of national areas, with a predicted increase of 9,576 persons to 2041. This reflects an overall increase of 64.5% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Mernda - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Mernda - South has seen approximately 113 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years ending June 2025. This totals to 569 homes. By May 2026, 41 approvals have been recorded. On average, 4.5 new residents per year arrive for each dwelling constructed between July 2020 and June 2025.

The supply of dwellings is lagging behind demand, which may lead to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $303,000, in line with regional trends. In the current financial year ending June 2026, $702,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to previous years.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Mernda - South records around 66% of the building activity per person and ranks among the 86th percentile of areas assessed nationally for residential construction activity. Recent construction comprises 87.0% detached dwellings and 13.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 112 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts indicate Mernda - South will gain 9,055 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

Mernda - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 23 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Mernda Community Hospital, Regional Sports Precinct Mernda, Mernda Villages by Stockland, and Mernda Town Centre. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Mernda - South demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Mernda - South has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.2% as of June 2025, below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.2%. As of June 2025, 7,536 residents were in work and workforce participation was 73.1%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance employs 1.3 times the regional level share of workers.

Professional & technical services employ 5.7% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.2%, labour force grew by 1.4%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate of 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points during the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May 2025, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mernda - South's employment mix suggests local growth could approximate these rates over the respective periods.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022 indicates Mernda - South's median income among taxpayers is $56,435, with an average of $64,798. This places it approximately at the national average, compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from financial year ending June 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $63,297 (median) and $72,677 (average). Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Mernda - South cluster around the 70th percentile nationally. Income distribution reveals that 44.8% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to regional levels at 32.8%. High housing costs consume 17.8% of income, yet strong earnings place disposable income at the 69th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Mernda - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Mernda - South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 95.3% houses and 4.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 87.2% houses and 12.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mernda - South was 12.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.7% and rented ones at 27.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, above Melbourne metro's $1,900. Median weekly rent in Mernda - South was $390, compared to Melbourne metro's $371. Nationally, mortgage repayments averaged $1,863 and rents were $375.

Mernda - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 86.2% of all households, including 52.7% couples with children, 18.9% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 13.8%, with lone person households at 11.8% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 3.2 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Mernda - South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Mernda South indicate that 31.1% of residents aged 15+ have university degrees, compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. The area has potential for educational development and skills enhancement as it trails the regional benchmark. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 19.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 35.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (13.9%) and certificates (21.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 34.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (13.9%), secondary education (7.8%), and tertiary education (4.5%). Mernda South's four schools have a combined enrollment of 2,383 students. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions, with an ICSEA score of 1058. The educational mix includes one primary school and three K-12 schools. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 17.0 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 13.1, suggesting that Mernda South serves as an educational center for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mernda - South has 47 active public transport stops serving a mix of train and bus routes. These stops are serviced by 9 individual routes that collectively provide 11,377 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 238 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 1,625 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 242 weekly trips per stop.

Mernda - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Mernda - South shows excellent health outcomes with low prevalence of common conditions across both young and elderly residents. Private health cover stands at approximately 52%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 49.8%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (7.2%) and mental health issues (6.9%). A total of 78.6% of residents report no medical ailments, higher than the 74.0% in Greater Melbourne. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 6.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 13.2%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors warrant more attention due to being above average.

Mernda - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Mernda-South has notable cultural diversity, with 37.1% of its population born overseas and 42.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Mernda-South, accounting for 46.2% of its population. However, the most significant overrepresentation is seen in the 'Other' category, which comprises 5.6% of the population compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.4%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (18.1%), Australian (17.7%), and English (15.3%). There are also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Macedonian is overrepresented at 3.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.6%, Indian at 10.5% versus regional 6.2%, and Sri Lankan at 1.2% against regional 0.8%.

Mernda - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Mernda-South has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national median age of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mernda-South has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (21.4%), but fewer residents aged 65-74 (4.3%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.2%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 45 to 54 has increased from 11.7% to 13.2%, while the proportion of those aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 17.1% to 14.5%. The population of children aged 0 to 4 has also declined, from 9.9% to 8.1%. By 2041, demographic forecasts indicate substantial changes in Mernda-South's age distribution, with the strongest projected growth occurring among residents aged 45 to 54, who are expected to increase by 120%, adding 2,219 residents to reach a total of 4,069.