Mernda - South

Mernda - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Mernda - South's population was approximately 14,047 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 2,107 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 11,940. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates showing an ERP of 13,526 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses totalling 350 since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,627 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Mernda - South's growth rate of 17.6% since the 2021 Census exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 42.4% to overall population gains during recent periods, with all demographic drivers being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population projections indicate exceptional growth, placing Mernda - South in the top 10% of national areas, with an expected increase of 9,576 persons by 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 64.5%.

The level of residential development activity in Mernda - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Mernda South has seen approximately 113 new home approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 569 homes. As of FY26, 50 approvals have been recorded. On average, 4.5 new residents arrive per dwelling constructed each year between FY21 and FY25. Commercial development approvals in FY26 totalled $702,000, indicating minimal commercial activity compared to residential development.

Mernda South records around 66% of Greater Melbourne's building activity per person and ranks among the 86th percentile nationally for assessed areas. Recent construction comprises mostly detached dwellings (87.0%) and a smaller proportion of attached dwellings (13.0%), maintaining the area's suburban character focused on family homes. There are approximately 112 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Population forecasts suggest Mernda South will gain 9,055 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Mernda - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 23 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Mernda Community Hospital, Mernda Town Centre, Regional Sports Precinct Mernda, and Mernda Villages by Stockland. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Mernda - South exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Mernda - South has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.3%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.2%. As of September 2025, 7,721 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.3% below Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation in Mernda - South is 73.1%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Health care & social assistance employs 1.3 times the regional level, while professional & technical employs only 5.7% of local workers compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment levels increased by 1.2% in Mernda - South during the year to September 2025, with labour force increasing by 0.8% and unemployment falling by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections vary significantly. Applying these projections to Mernda - South's employment mix indicates potential local employment increases of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch released its latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022. In Mernda - South SA2, the median income among taxpayers was $56,435 with an average of $64,798. Nationally, this is approximately average. Compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761, Mernda - South's figures are slightly higher. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year ending June 2022, current estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $63,297 (median) and $72,677 (average). Census 2021 income data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Mernda - South cluster around the 70th percentile nationally. In terms of income distribution, 44.8% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, reflecting regional patterns where 32.8% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 17.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 69th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Mernda - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Mernda - South, as per the latest Census evaluation, 95.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 4.7% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Melbourne's metropolitan area, where 87.2% of dwellings are houses. Home ownership in Mernda - South stood at 12.8%, lower than Melbourne metro's rate. Most dwellings were either mortgaged (59.7%) or rented (27.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Melbourne's average of $1,900 but close to the national average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Mernda - South was $390, slightly above Melbourne's $371 and the national figure of $375.

Mernda - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 86.2% of all households, consisting of couples with children (52.7%), couples without children (18.9%), and single parent families (13.5%). Non-family households account for the remaining 13.8%, with lone person households at 11.8% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 3.2 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Mernda - South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Mernda's residents aged 15+ have a university degree rate of 31.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 19.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 35.3% of residents, including advanced diplomas (13.9%) and certificates (21.4%). Educational participation is high, with 34.6% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (13.9%), secondary (7.8%), and tertiary (4.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.9% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mernda - South has 47 active public transport stops operating, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 9 different routes, collectively facilitating 11,377 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 238 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 1,625 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 242 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mernda - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Mernda - South shows excellent health outcomes with low prevalence rates for common conditions across both young and elderly cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 52%, slightly higher than the SA2 average of 49.8%.

This compares to a rate of 49.8% across Greater Melbourne, covering around 7,290 people. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (7.2%) and mental health issues (6.9%). 78.6% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 74.0% in Greater Melbourne. Only 6.6% of the population is aged 65 or over (931 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 13.2%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

Mernda - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Mernda-South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 37.1% of its population born overseas and 42.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Mernda-South, accounting for 46.2% of people. The most significant overrepresentation is seen in the 'Other' category, which comprises 5.6% of the population compared to 4.4% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (18.1%), Australian (17.7%), and English (15.3%). Notably, Macedonian is overrepresented at 3.1%, Indian at 10.5%, and Sri Lankan at 1.2% compared to regional percentages of 4.6%, 6.2%, and 0.8% respectively.

Mernda - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Mernda-South has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mernda-South has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (21.4%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (4.3%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.2%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of residents aged 45 to 54 has increased from 11.7% to 13.2%, while the percentage of those aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 17.1% to 14.5%. Additionally, the proportion of children aged 0 to 4 has dropped from 9.9% to 8.1%. By the year 2041, population forecasts suggest substantial demographic changes for Mernda-South, with the 45 to 54 age group projected to grow by 120%, adding 2,219 residents and reaching a total of 4,069.