St Helena

An assessment of population growth drivers in St Helena reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the St Helena statistical area (Lv2) has an estimated population of around 3,036 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 146 people (5.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,890 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,025, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 65 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,851 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. St Helena's 5.1% growth since census positions it within 2.9 percentage points of the SA3 area (8.0%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 70.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas is forecast, with the St Helena (SA2) expected to expand by 1,208 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 37.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in St Helena, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

St Helena recorded around 8 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past 5 financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 40 homes were approved, with another 3 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 0.1 people moved to the area for each dwelling built over these years.

This suggests that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially driving population growth beyond current expectations. The average value of new homes being built is $488,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. In FY-26, there have been $1.2 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, St Helena has significantly less development activity, at 59.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Recent construction comprises 55.0% standalone homes and 45.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current housing mix of 84.0% houses.

The location has approximately 328 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts estimate St Helena will gain 1,152 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

St Helena has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely to influence the region. Notable ones are St Helena Place, Nillumbik Play Space Renewal Projects, Hurstbridge Rail Line Upgrades between Watsonia and Eltham, and the Nillumbik Waste Management Facility Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

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St Helena ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

St Helena has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. The unemployment rate is 2.0% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne at 64.1%. Key employment industries are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Accommodation & food has a limited presence at 3.9% compared to 6.4% regionally.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities. In the year ending September 2025, employment increased by 0.5% while labour force rose by 0.3%, reducing unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, and a rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. In Victoria, as of 25-November-25, employment grew year-on-year by 1.13% (adding 41,950 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to St Helena's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch released postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023. St Helena's median income among taxpayers was $61,023, with an average of $75,433. Nationally, the median income was lower at $54,898 and the average was $78,781. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $57,688 and the average was $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for St Helena would be approximately $66,057 (median) and $81,656 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in St Helena ranked highly nationally, between the 70th and 81st percentiles. Income analysis showed that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominated with 28.9% of residents (877 people). This pattern was similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupied this range. A substantial proportion of high earners (35.8%) had incomes above $3,000 per week, indicating strong economic capacity in the area. After housing costs, residents retained 89.4% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

St Helena is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

St Helena's dwellings, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 84.0% houses and 16.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 76.0% houses and 24.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in St Helena stood at 42.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.4% and rented ones at 13.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $163, compared to Melbourne metro's $399. Nationally, St Helena's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

St Helena features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.9% of all households, including 42.3% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 7.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.1%, with lone person households at 19.4% and group households at 0.5%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

St Helena demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in St Helena trail regional benchmarks, with 32.4% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 41.2% in SA3 area. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 21.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.3%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 32.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (20.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 11 active transport stops operating within St Helena. These stops are serviced by 4 individual routes, collectively providing 2,092 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 191 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 298 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 190 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in St Helena are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

St Helena's health indicators show below-average results, with common health conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is high at approximately 57% of the total population (around 1,718 people), compared to 60.9% in Greater Melbourne.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.8 and 7.6% of residents respectively. About 67.3% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 69.3% in Greater Melbourne. As of 2021, approximately 24.4% of St Helena's population is aged 65 and over (around 740 people), higher than the 19.8% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, St Helena records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

St Helena's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region's average, with 81.6% of its population born in Australia and 91.5% being citizens. English is spoken exclusively at home by 86.7%. The predominant religion is Christianity, practiced by 53.5%, compared to 47.1% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (26.2%), Australian (23.6%), and Italian (9.5%). Notably, Macedonian (1.6%) and Maltese (1.9%) populations are higher than regional averages of 1.1% and 0.8%, respectively. Hungarian ancestry is also slightly more prevalent at 0.4%.

St Helena hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in St Helena is 46 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. The 55-64 age cohort makes up 15.1% of St Helena's population, compared to just 9.2% in Greater Melbourne, indicating an over-representation of this age group locally. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is under-represented in St Helena at 6.1%, compared to 10.7% in Greater Melbourne. Between the 2021 Census and present day, the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.9% to 8.5% of the population, while the 25-34 cohort has declined from 7.5% to 6.1%. By 2041, projections show significant growth in the 75-84 age cohort, with an increase of 219 people (85%) from 258 to 478 residents. The 0-4 age group is expected to grow more modestly at 2%, adding only 2 residents by 2041.