Eltham

An assessment of population growth drivers in Eltham reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Eltham's population is around 23,996 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 552 people (2.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,444 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,554 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 147 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,231 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Eltham's 2.4% growth since the census positions it within 0.4 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.8%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 68.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, an above-median population growth of national areas is projected, with the area expected to grow by 4,193 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 15.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Eltham, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Eltham has seen around 43 new homes approved each year, with 215 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 29 so far in FY-26. Given population has fallen over the past period, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers, while new dwellings are developed at an average construction cost of $510,000, showing that developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. Also, $12.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating steady commercial investment activity.

Relative to Greater Melbourne, Eltham records about three-quarters the building activity per person while it places among the 27th percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning more limited choices for buyers, supporting demand for existing homes. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. New building activity shows 53.0% standalone homes and 47.0% townhouses or apartments, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points, from family homes to more affordable compact living. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 88.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. At around 598 people per approval, Eltham shows a mature, established area.

Population forecasts indicate Eltham will gain 3,751 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Eltham has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 21 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Eltham and Diamond Creek Major Activity Centres Structure Plans, the Eltham High School Upgrade and Modernisation, the Eltham Lower Park Upgrade, and the Andrew Pocket Park Development, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Eltham ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Eltham possesses a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.0%, and 1.2% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 13,859 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.8% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a high 41.2% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area has a particular employment specialization in education & training, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing shows lower representation at 3.0% versus the regional average of 5.2%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 1.2% alongside the labour force increasing by 1.2%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Eltham. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Eltham's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Eltham SA2's income level is extremely high nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Eltham SA2's median income among taxpayers is $62,901 and the average income stands at $86,421, which compares to figures for Greater Melbourne's of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $68,090 (median) and $93,551 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Eltham, between the 77th and 90th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, 29.5% of the population (7,078 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. The substantial proportion of high earners (41.1% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout Eltham. After housing costs, residents retain 88.1% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Eltham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Eltham, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 88.4% houses and 11.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Eltham was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 43.1%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (46.0%) or rented (10.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Melbourne metro average at $2,297, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $446, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Eltham's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Eltham features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 82.9% of all households, comprising 44.8% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 17.1%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households comprising 0.9% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Eltham demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile stands out regionally, with university qualification rates (40.3% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the Australian average of 30.4% and that of the SA4 region (32.8%), reflecting the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees lead at 25.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.9%) and graduate diplomas (5.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (17.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 71 active transport stops operating within Eltham, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 11 individual routes, collectively providing 7,935 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 361 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 5% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 41.2% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 1,133 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 111 weekly trips per individual stop.

Eltham's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Eltham, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 62% of the total population (14,877 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 8.0% and 7.8% of residents, respectively, while 70.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 22.0% of residents aged 65 and over (5,274 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Eltham records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Eltham was found to be roughly in line with the wider region's average in terms of cultural diversity, with 81.2% of its population born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 89.2% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Eltham is Christianity, which makes up 43.3% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.1% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Eltham are English, comprising 28.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 24.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Irish, comprising 9.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Italian is notably overrepresented at 5.9% of Eltham (vs 5.2% regionally), Macedonian at 0.6% (vs 0.7%) and Maltese at 0.9% (vs 1.1%).

Eltham's median age exceeds the national pattern

The 43-year median age in Eltham is considerably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 as well as substantially exceeding the 38-year national average. The age profile shows 65 - 74 year-olds are particularly prominent (12.9%), while the 25 - 34 group is comparatively smaller (6.1%) than in Greater Melbourne. In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.0% to 7.3% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 12.6% to 14.0%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 8.1% to 6.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Eltham's age structure. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to rise substantially, expanding by 1,245 people (72%) from 1,742 to 2,988. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 61% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. On the other hand, the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.