Eltham

An assessment of population growth drivers in Eltham reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Eltham's population is around 23,772 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 328 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,444 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,560 in June 2024 and an additional 148 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,219 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Eltham's growth rate of 1.4% since census positions it within 0.9 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.3%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 68.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth for national areas, with Eltham expected to grow by 4,193 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 16.7% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Eltham, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Eltham has seen approximately 43 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 215 homes were approved, with an additional 27 approved so far in FY26. Despite a falling population during this period, new supply appears to have kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $510,000, indicating developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This financial year has seen $12.3 million in commercial approvals registered, suggesting steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Eltham records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks at the 27th percentile nationally for building activity, offering more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. This lower-than-average national activity reflects the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 53.0% standalone homes and 47.0% townhouses or apartments, with a growing mix providing options across different price points.

This shift from the area's existing housing (currently 88.0% houses) suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 598 people per approval, Eltham shows a mature, established area. Population forecasts indicate Eltham will gain approximately 3,975 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Eltham has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 21 projects that could affect the area. Key projects include the Eltham and Diamond Creek Major Activity Centres Structure Plans, Eltham High School Upgrade and Modernisation, Eltham Lower Park Upgrade, and Andrew Pocket Park Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Eltham ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Eltham has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 1.8%, showing relative stability over the past year.

As of September 2025, 13,748 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.8% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is at 67.3%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area specializes in education & training, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing shows lower representation at 3.0% compared to the regional average of 5.2%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 0.3%, labour force remained stable (0.0%), leading to a decrease in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Eltham's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The median income among taxpayers in Eltham SA2 was $60,033 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $83,775 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest Eltham's median income would be approximately $67,333 and its average income around $93,962, based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.16%. According to Census data, household, family, and personal incomes in Eltham rank highly nationally, between the 77th and 90th percentiles. In terms of income distribution, 29.5% of Eltham's population (7,012 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. A substantial proportion of high earners (41.1%) have incomes above $3,000 per week, indicating strong economic capacity throughout Eltham. After housing costs, residents retain 88.1% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Eltham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Eltham's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.4% houses and 11.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 93.9% houses and 6.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Eltham was at 43.1%, similar to Melbourne metro, with the rest being mortgaged (46.0%) or rented (10.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Eltham was $2,297, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Eltham was $446, compared to Melbourne metro's $431. Nationally, Eltham's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Eltham features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.9% of all households, including 44.8% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 17.1%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households comprising 0.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Eltham demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 40.3% of residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and the SA4 region's rate of 32.8%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.9%) and graduate diplomas (5.2%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas comprise 11.9% while certificates account for 17.6%.

Educational participation is notably high at 30.1%, including 9.7% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Eltham has 70 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 10 different routes, which collectively facilitate 9,007 weekly passenger trips. The town's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average situated 362 meters from their nearest stop.

Service frequency across all routes averages 1,286 trips daily, amounting to approximately 128 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Eltham is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Eltham shows superior health outcomes for both younger and older age groups with low prevalence of common health conditions. The private health cover rate is notably high at approximately 61% of the total population (14,572 people), surpassing the national average of 55.3%.

Asthma and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 8.0% and 7.8% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 70.2%, declare themselves completely free from medical ailments, closely following Greater Melbourne's figure of 70.6%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.0% (4,999 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 19.2%. Notably, health outcomes among seniors in Eltham are particularly strong, outperforming the general population in various health metrics.

In terms of cultural diversity, Eltham records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Eltham's cultural diversity aligns with its wider region, with 81.2% of residents born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 89.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 43.3%. Judaism, at 0.1%, is slightly higher than the regional average of 0.1%.

The top three ancestral groups are English (28.2%), Australian (24.1%), and Irish (9.9%). Italian (5.9%) is overrepresented compared to the region's 6.2%, while Macedonian (0.6%) and Maltese (0.9%) also show slight excesses over their regional averages of 0.7% and 1.0%, respectively.

Eltham's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Eltham is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 years make up 12.6% of the population, while those aged 25-34 years comprise only 6.4%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of people aged 75 to 84 has increased from 5.0% to 6.8%, and the 15 to 24 age group has risen from 12.6% to 13.9%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 8.1% to 6.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Eltham's age structure. The number of people aged 75 to 84 is projected to rise by 1,371 people (an 85% increase) from 1,616 to 2,988. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 63% of total population growth, reflecting Eltham's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.