Eltham

An assessment of population growth drivers in Eltham reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Eltham's population was 23,685 as of May 2026. This figure shows an increase of 241 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 23,444. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,669 in June 2025 and an additional 152 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,215 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Eltham's growth rate of 1.0% since the census is within 0.8 percentage points of the SA3 area (1.8%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 71.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends project above median population growth for national areas, with Eltham expected to grow by 4,231 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 17.8% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Eltham, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Eltham has seen approximately 43 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 215 homes were approved, with an additional 36 approved in FY26 so far. This level of approvals suggests that new supply is likely keeping pace with demand despite a falling population, providing good options for buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $510,000, indicating a focus on the premium market. In terms of commercial activity, $12.3 million in approvals have been registered this financial year. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Eltham records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 27th percentile nationally, suggesting more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. This lower-than-average national activity reflects the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. The new building activity consists of approximately 53.0% standalone homes and 47.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the area's current housing mix of 88.0% houses.

Population forecasts indicate Eltham will gain around 4,215 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Eltham has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch identified 20 projects likely to impact the area, with key ones including Eltham and Diamond Creek Major Activity Centres Structure Plans, Eltham High School Upgrade and Modernisation (commenced in late 2018), Eltham Lower Park Upgrade (scheduled for completion by mid-2020), and Alistair Knox Park Changing Places Facility (opened in October 2019). Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

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Employment performance in Eltham ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Eltham has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.0% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.2%. As of December 2025, 13,859 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.8%, below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation was 72.1%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 41.2% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Notably, education & training has a high representation at 1.4 times the regional level, while transport, postal & warehousing shows lower representation at 3.0% compared to the regional average of 5.2%.

Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 1.2%, with labour force increasing by 1.2%, and unemployment remaining largely unchanged. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a slight rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Eltham's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Eltham SA2 has a high national income level according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Eltham is $62,901 and the average income stands at $86,421. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $68,952 (median) and $94,735 (average). Census data shows that household, family and personal incomes in Eltham rank highly nationally, between the 77th and 90th percentiles. Income distribution reveals that 29.5% of Eltham's population falls within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, consistent with broader regional trends at 32.8%. A substantial proportion of high earners (41.1%) indicates strong economic capacity throughout Eltham. After housing costs, residents retain 88.1% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Eltham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Eltham, as per the latest Census, 88.4% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 11.5% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This is compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Eltham stood at 43.1%, with mortgaged properties at 46.0% and rented ones at 10.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,297, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent was $446, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Eltham's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Eltham features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.9% of all households, including 44.8% that are couples with children, 27.7% that are couples without children, and 9.8% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 17.1%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households comprising 0.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Eltham demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 40.3% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and that of the SA4 region at 32.8%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.9%) and graduate diplomas (5.2%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 17.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.7% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Eltham has 71 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These are served by 11 different routes that together facilitate 7,935 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents typically located 361 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Eltham's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 90%, while trains account for 5%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.8, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 41.2% of residents work from home, a figure possibly influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 1,133 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 111 weekly trips per individual stop.

Eltham's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Eltham's health outcomes show excellent results according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups. Approximately 62% of Eltham's total population (14,684 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%.

Nationally, the average is 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions in Eltham are asthma and arthritis, affecting 8.0% and 7.8% of residents respectively. 70.2% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Under-65 health outcomes in Eltham are better than average. The area has 21.6% of residents aged 65 and over (5,111 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Senior health outcomes in Eltham align with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Eltham records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Eltham's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, with 81.2% of residents born in Australia and 92.0% being citizens. English is spoken at home by 89.2%. Christianity is the dominant religion at 43.3%.

Judaism is overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to 1.0% regionally. Top ancestral groups are English (28.2%), Australian (24.1%), and Irish (9.9%). Italian, Macedonian, and Maltese groups show notable variations in representation: Italians are 5.9% vs regional 5.2%, Macedonians 0.6% vs 0.7%, and Maltese 0.9% vs 1.1%.

Eltham's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Eltham is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that the 65-74 year-old group constitutes 12.6% of the population, while the 25-34 year-old group makes up only 6.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 5.0% to 7.2%, and the 15 to 24 age group has risen from 12.6% to 14.3%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 year-old cohort has decreased from 8.1% to 6.5%, and the 45 to 54 year-old group has fallen from 15.8% to 14.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Eltham's age structure. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to rise by 1,273 people (75%), from 1,695 to 2,969. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 57% of total population growth, reflecting Eltham's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 year-old cohorts are projected to experience population declines.