Eltham

An assessment of population growth drivers in Eltham reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, Eltham's population is approximately 23,996, indicating a growth of 552 people (2.4%) since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 23,444. This increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,554 as of June 2024 and an additional 147 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is around 1,231 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Eltham's growth rate of 2.4% since census is within 0.4 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.8%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.2% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth in the area. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth for national areas, with Eltham expected to grow by 4,193 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 15.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Eltham, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Eltham has seen around 43 new homes approved annually. Between financial years FY21 and FY25215 homes were approved, with a further 28 approved in FY26 so far. The population has fallen during this period, suggesting that new supply has kept pace with demand, offering good choice to buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $510,000, indicating focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY26, $12.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, showing steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Eltham records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 27th percentile nationally, suggesting limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. New building activity comprises 53.0% standalone homes and 47.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 88.0% houses). This change may indicate decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse, affordable housing options.

Eltham has an estimated population density of around 598 people per approval, suggesting it is a mature, established area. Population forecasts estimate that Eltham will gain 3,751 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Eltham has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 21 projects that could affect this region. Notable projects include the Eltham and Diamond Creek Major Activity Centres Structure Plans, Eltham High School Upgrade and Modernisation, Eltham Lower Park Upgrade, and Andrew Pocket Park Development. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Eltham ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Eltham has a highly educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 1.8% as of September 2025. This rate is 2.9 percentage points lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation in Eltham is similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 41.2% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area has a high employment specialization in education & training, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing shows lower representation at 3.0% compared to the regional average of 5.2%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 0.3%, labour force increased by 0.0%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with an increase in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Eltham's employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment profile.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Eltham SA2 has a high national income level according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers is $62,901 and the average income stands at $86,421. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. As of September 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $68,090 (median) and $93,551 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023. Census data shows Eltham's household, family, and personal incomes rank highly nationally, between the 77th and 90th percentiles. In income distribution, 29.5% of Eltham's population falls within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, consistent with broader regional trends at 32.8%. A substantial proportion of high earners (41.1%) indicates strong economic capacity in Eltham. After housing costs, residents retain 88.1% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Eltham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Eltham, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.4% houses and 11.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Eltham stood at 43.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.0% and rented ones at 10.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,297, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Eltham was $446, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Eltham's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Eltham features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.9% of all households, including 44.8% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 17.1%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households at 0.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Eltham demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 40.3% among residents aged 15+ exceeding the Australian average of 30.4% and that of the SA4 region at 32.8%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.9%) and graduate diplomas (5.2%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 17.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Eltham has 71 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by 11 routes, offering a total of 7,935 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically living 361 meters from the nearest stop. Most commutes are outward-bound due to Eltham's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant transport mode at 90%, while trains account for 5%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 41.2% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 1,133 trips per day, equating to around 111 weekly trips per individual stop.

Eltham's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Eltham's health outcomes data shows excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 62% of Eltham's total population (14,877 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 8.0 and 7.8% of residents respectively. A significant portion, 70.2%, of Eltham's residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Under-65s in the area have better than average health outcomes. Eltham has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.0% (5,274 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, ranking broadly in line with the general population nationally.

In terms of cultural diversity, Eltham records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Eltham's cultural diversity aligns with its wider region, having 81.2% born in Australia, 92.0% as citizens, and 89.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 43.3%. Judaism stands out at 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

The top ancestry groups are English (28.2%), Australian (24.1%), and Irish (9.9%), all higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4% respectively. Italian, Macedonian, and Maltese groups show notable variations in representation compared to regional figures: Italian at 5.9% vs 5.2%, Macedonian at 0.6% vs 0.7%, and Maltese at 0.9% vs 1.1%.

Eltham's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Eltham is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 12.9% of the population, while those aged 25-34 make up only 6.1%. Between 2021 and the present, the percentage of people aged 75 to 84 has grown from 5.0% to 7.3%, and the percentage of those aged 15 to 24 has increased from 12.6% to 14.0%. Conversely, the percentage of those aged 25 to 34 has declined from 8.1% to 6.1%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Eltham's age structure. The number of people aged 75 to 84 is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 1,245 people (72%) from 1,742 to 2,988. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and over will account for 61% of total population growth, reflecting Eltham's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the age cohorts of 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 are expected to experience population declines.