Eltham
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Eltham reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Eltham's population was 23,770 as of August 2025. This shows an increase of 326 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,444. The change is inferred from ABS data: Eltham had an estimated resident population of 23,560 in June 2024 and gained 147 validated new addresses since the Census date. This gives a density ratio of 1,219 persons per square kilometer. Eltham's growth rate of 1.4% since the census is within 0.9 percentage points of its SA3 area (2.3%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.2% to overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project above median growth for the area, with an expected increase of 4,193 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 16.7%.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Eltham, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Eltham has seen approximately 72 new homes approved annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, showing 360 homes approved over the past five years from Financial Year 2020 to Financial Year 2025, with one approval so far in Financial Year 2026. Despite recent population decline, Eltham's development activity has been adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced housing market with good buyer choice. New homes are being built at an average construction cost of $812,000, indicating a focus on the premium market and high-end developments.

This financial year has seen $12.3 million in commercial development approvals, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Eltham has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person, placing it among the 28th percentile nationally, which results in relatively constrained buyer choice and supports interest in existing dwellings. This is also lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity shows 53.0% standalone homes and 47.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a growing mix of housing types to provide options across different price points. This shift reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse, affordable housing options.

Eltham has around 598 people per approval, demonstrating its status as a mature, established area. By 2041, Eltham is projected to grow by 3,977 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Eltham has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 23 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include North East Link, Eltham and Diamond Creek Major Activity Centres Structure Plans, Eltham Lower Park Upgrade, and Eltham High School Upgrade and Modernisation. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Eltham rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Eltham's workforce is highly educated with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 1.6% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 2.1%.

As of June 2025, 13,982 residents are employed at a 3.0% lower unemployment rate than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%, with workforce participation at 67.3%. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Education & training shows particular specialization, being 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing has lower representation at 3.0% versus the regional average of 5.2%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 2.1%, labour force by 1.5%, and unemployment fell by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had higher employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Eltham's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8%% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Eltham's median income among taxpayers was $60,033 according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. The average income stood at $83,775 in the same period. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. As of March 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% suggest Eltham's median income could be approximately $66,102 and the average around $92,245. Census data shows Eltham's household, family, and personal incomes rank highly nationally, between the 77th and 90th percentiles. Income distribution in Eltham sees 29.5% of residents (7,012 individuals) earning within the $1,500 - 2,999 range, similar to regional trends at 32.8%. A significant proportion of high earners, 41.1%, have incomes above $3,000 per week, indicating strong economic capacity in Eltham. After housing costs, residents retain 88.1% of their income, reflecting robust purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Eltham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Eltham's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 88.4% houses and 11.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Melbourne metro's 93.9% houses and 6.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Eltham was at 43.1%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (46.0%) or rented (10.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Eltham was $2,297, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent figure for Eltham was $446, compared to Melbourne metro's $431. Nationally, Eltham's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Eltham features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.9% of all households, including 44.8% that are couples with children, 27.7% that are couples without children, and 9.8% that are single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 17.1%, with lone person households making up 16.2% and group households comprising 0.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Eltham demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally. University qualification rates exceed the Australian average of 30.4%, with 40.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications. This rate is also higher than that of the SA4 region at 32.8%.

Bachelor degrees are most common, held by 25.2% of residents, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.9%) and graduate diplomas (5.2%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (17.6%). Educational participation is high, with 30.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (9.7%), secondary education (9.4%), and tertiary education (5.3%). Eltham has a robust network of 7 schools educating approximately 3843 students. The area shows significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, with an ICSEA score of 1115. Education provision is balanced, with 4 primary and 3 secondary schools serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of Eltham's public transport system shows that there are currently 70 active transport stops in operation. These comprise a mix of train stations and bus stops, serving the town effectively. There are ten individual routes running through these stops collectively providing 9,007 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 362 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency across all routes stands at around 1,286 trips per day, which equates to roughly 128 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Eltham is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Eltham exhibits above-average health outcomes, with both younger and older age groups showing low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 61% of Eltham's total population of 14,571 have private health cover, which is higher than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, affecting 8.0% and 7.8% of residents respectively. In comparison, 70.2% of Eltham's residents report being completely free from medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 70.6%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 21.0% (4,998 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 19.2%. Health outcomes among Eltham's senior residents are notably strong, even outperforming the general population in health metrics.

In terms of cultural diversity, Eltham records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Eltham's cultural diversity aligns with the broader area, as 81.2% of its residents were born in Australia, 92.0% are citizens, and 89.2% speak English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Eltham, practiced by 43.3%. While Judaism is similarly represented in both Eltham (0.1%) and Greater Melbourne, notable differences exist in some ethnic groups' representation: Italian (5.9% vs 6.2%), Macedonian (0.6% vs 0.7%), and Maltese (0.9% vs 1.0%).

The top three ancestry groups in Eltham are English (28.2%), Australian (24.1%), and Irish (9.9%).

Eltham hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Eltham is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 years make up 12.6%, while those aged 25-34 years comprise only 6.4%. Between 2021 and the present, the proportion of those aged 75-84 years has increased from 5.0% to 6.8%, and the 15-24 age group has risen from 12.6% to 13.9%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has decreased from 8.1% to 6.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Eltham's age structure. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 1,371 people (85%) from 1,616 to 2,988. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 63% of total population growth, reflecting Eltham's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 25-34 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.