Eltham

An assessment of population growth drivers in Eltham reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Eltham's population is approximately 23,993 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 549 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 23,444. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,554 in June 2024 and an additional 148 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 1,231 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Eltham's growth rate of 2.3% since the Census is within 0.5 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.8%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends project above median population growth, with Eltham expected to grow by 4,193 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 15.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Eltham, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Eltham has seen approximately 43 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 215 homes were approved, with an additional 28 approved in FY26 so far. Despite a population decline over this period, new supply appears to have kept pace with demand, offering good choice for buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $510,000, indicating focus on the premium market. This financial year has seen $12.3 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting steady commercial investment activity. Comparatively, Eltham records about three-quarters the building activity per person relative to Greater Melbourne. Nationally, it places among the 27th percentile of areas assessed, suggesting limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. This lower-than-average national activity reflects the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

New building activity comprises 53.0% standalone homes and 47.0% townhouses or apartments, showing a growing mix providing options across different price points. This shift from the area's existing housing (currently 88.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles. At around 598 people per approval, Eltham demonstrates its established nature. Population forecasts indicate it will gain approximately 3,754 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Eltham has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 21 projects that could affect the region. Notable initiatives include the Eltham and Diamond Creek Major Activity Centres Structure Plans, the Eltham High School Upgrade and Modernisation project, the Eltham Lower Park Upgrade, and the Andrew Pocket Park Development. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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Employment performance in Eltham ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Eltham has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 1.8% in September 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation is similar to the regional average at 71.0%.

A high proportion of residents, 41.2%, work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Notably, education & training has a higher share of employment in Eltham compared to the regional level. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing shows lower representation at 3.0% versus the regional average of 5.2%.

Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by resident population vs working population count. Over the year ending September 2025, employment increased by 0.3%, labour force grew by 0.0%, and unemployment fell by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 14.0% over ten years. Applying these projections to Eltham's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Eltham SA2 has a high national income level according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Eltham is $62,901, with an average income of $86,421. This compares to Greater Melbourne's figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $68,090 (median) and $93,551 (average). Census data shows Eltham's household, family, and personal incomes rank highly nationally, between the 77th and 90th percentiles. In income distribution, 29.5% of Eltham's population (7,077 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, consistent with regional trends showing 32.8% in the same category. A substantial proportion of high earners (41.1% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout Eltham. After housing costs, residents retain 88.1% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Eltham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Eltham's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 88.4% houses and 11.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Eltham stood at 43.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.0% and rented ones at 10.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,297, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Eltham was $446, higher than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Eltham's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,297 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Eltham features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.9% of all households, including 44.8% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 17.1%, with lone person households at 16.2% and group households comprising 0.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Eltham demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 40.3% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and the SA4 region's rate of 32.8%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.9%) and graduate diplomas (5.2%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 11.9% and certificates for 17.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.7% in primary, 9.4% in secondary, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Eltham has 71 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 11 different routes that together facilitate 7,935 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of public transport in Eltham is rated as good, with residents typically located 361 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most commuting is outward-bound. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 90%, while 5% use trains. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling in Eltham, which exceeds the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 41.2% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 1,133 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 111 weekly trips per individual stop.

Eltham's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Eltham's health outcomes show notable results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, with very low prevalence across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 62% of Eltham's total population (14,875 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%. Asthma and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 8.0% and 7.8% of residents respectively.

70.2% of Eltham residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. Eltham has 21.0% of residents aged 65 and over (5,045 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 14.9%. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Eltham records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Eltham's cultural diversity aligns with the wider region's average, as seen in its population born in Australia (81.2%), citizens (92.0%), and English speakers at home (89.2%). Christianity is the predominant religion in Eltham (43.3%), slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 35%. Notably, Judaism is underrepresented in Eltham (0.1%) compared to Greater Melbourne (1.0%).

In terms of ancestry, Eltham has higher proportions of English (28.2% vs regional average 20.1%), Australian (24.1% vs 18.4%), and Irish (9.9%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Italian is slightly overrepresented (5.9% vs 5.2%), Macedonian is underrepresented (0.6% vs 0.7%), and Maltese is also underrepresented in Eltham (0.9% vs 1.1%).

Eltham's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Eltham is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 12.6% of the population, while those aged 25-34 constitute a smaller proportion at 6.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.0% to 6.8%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 12.6% to 13.9%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has declined from 8.1% to 6.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Eltham's age structure. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to rise substantially, with an increase of 1,356 people (83%), from 1,631 to 2,988. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 64% of total population growth, reflecting Eltham's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 and 25 to 34 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.