Lower Plenty

Lower Plenty has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, as of Nov 2025, Lower Plenty's estimated population is around 4,141. This reflects a 179 person increase (4.5%) since the 2021 Census figure of 3,962 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 4,057 in Jun 2024 and 21 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 608 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration (60.0% of gains).

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Lower Plenty area is forecasted to grow by 1,664 persons, reflecting a total increase of 39.0% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lower Plenty according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lower Plenty has recorded approximately 13 residential properties granted approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 67 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved so far in FY-26. Over these five financial years, an average of 0.8 new residents per year per dwelling was observed.

This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $784,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $4.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating limited commercial development focus compared to residential. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Lower Plenty has significantly less development activity, being 50.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

Recent construction comprises 62.0% standalone homes and 38.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. With around 263 people per dwelling approval, Lower Plenty shows characteristics of a low density area. Future projections show Lower Plenty adding 1,615 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Lower Plenty has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 11 projects that are likely to impact the area, significantly influencing its performance. Notable projects include Montmorency North Pavilion Refurbishment, Plenty River Trail Upgrades, Hurstbridge Rail Line Upgrades between Watsonia and Eltham, and Level Crossing Removal - North Eastern Program Alliance along the Hurstbridge corridor.

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The labour market in Lower Plenty shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Lower Plenty has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. The unemployment rate is 2.6%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment stability was maintained over the past year. As of September 2025, 2,174 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.0% below Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation is at 61.5%, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training, with a notable concentration in construction at 1.4 times the regional average.

Accommodation & food employs only 4.3% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 6.4%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparison between working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.2%, labour force decreased by 0.3%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% and a rise in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13%, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Lower Plenty's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.9% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Lower Plenty suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $59,818 with an average level standing at $79,268. Nationally, this is extremely high compared to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates for Lower Plenty would be approximately $64,753 (median) and $85,808 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Lower Plenty cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. Distribution data shows that 30.4% of the population (1,258 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, mirroring the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 33.9% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. After housing costs, residents retain 87.8% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Lower Plenty is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Lower Plenty's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.2% houses and 24.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is similar to Melbourne metro's composition of 76.0% houses and 24.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lower Plenty stood at 44.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.0% and rented ones at 15.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent in Lower Plenty was $400, slightly above Melbourne metro's figure of $399. Nationally, Lower Plenty's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Lower Plenty has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 72.5% of all households, including 33.4% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 27.5%, with lone person households at 26.0% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

Lower Plenty shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 38.2%, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and the SA4 regional rate of 32.8%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.4%) and graduate diplomas (4.8%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 27.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (16.1%).

Educational participation is high at 27.3%, with 9.2% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 5.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lower Plenty has 13 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 5 individual routes providing service to the area. Each week, these routes facilitate 1,140 passenger trips in total.

The accessibility of public transport is rated as good, with residents typically located 378 meters away from the nearest transport stop on average. The service frequency across all routes averages 162 trips per day, which equates to approximately 87 weekly trips per individual stop.

Lower Plenty's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Lower Plenty's health metrics align closely with national benchmarks. Common health conditions are seen across both young and old age cohorts at a fairly standard level.

Private health cover is very high, at approximately 58% of the total population (~2,406 people), compared to 60.9% in Greater Melbourne. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 9.0% of residents) and mental health issues (7.7%). A majority, 67.0%, report being completely free from medical ailments, slightly lower than the 69.3% across Greater Melbourne. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 24.6% of the population (1,018 people), higher than the 19.8% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly matching the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Lower Plenty records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lower Plenty's population was found to be roughly similar to the wider region in terms of cultural diversity, with 81.3% born in Australia, 91.2% being citizens, and 86.7% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Lower Plenty is Christianity, making up 52.0% of its population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented, comprising 0.2% compared to the regional average of 0.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (26.5%), Australian (23.1%), and Irish (9.4%). There are also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Macedonian is overrepresented at 1.4% compared to the regional average of 1.1%, Italian is similarly represented at 7.8% versus 7.7%, and Serbian is slightly higher at 0.5% against a regional average of 0.3%.

Lower Plenty hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Lower Plenty is 45 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Lower Plenty has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (11.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.6%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 increased from 10.9% to 12.4%, while the 75-84 cohort rose from 7.6% to 8.8%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group decreased from 9.5% to 7.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Lower Plenty's age structure. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 171%, reaching 472 people from the current 173. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort will grow by a modest 4% (5 people).