Eltham (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Eltham reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Eltham's population is estimated at around 19,192 people. This reflects an increase of 345 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,847. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 19,020 in June 2024, based on ABS ERP data and validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,155 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they utilise the Victorian State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them employing weighted aggregation methods. Future population dynamics anticipate an above median growth for national statistical areas. By 2041, Eltham is projected to expand by 3,558 persons, reflecting a total increase of 17.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Eltham, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Eltham has seen around 40 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY21 and FY25, approximately 201 homes were approved, with another 22 in FY26 so far. Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to population change.

New properties are constructed at an average cost of $811,000, indicating a focus on premium segment. This year, $10.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered. New developments consist of 52% detached houses and 48% attached dwellings, offering diverse housing options.

This shift from the area's existing housing (86% houses) reflects decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles. Eltham has around 513 people per dwelling approval, indicating a developed market. By 2041, Eltham is expected to grow by 3,367 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and price growth.

Eltham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Eltham and Diamond Creek Major Activity Centres Structure Plans, Eltham High School Upgrade and Modernisation, Eltham Lower Park Upgrade, and Alistair Knox Park Changing Places Facility. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Eltham rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Eltham has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 1.6% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 2.1% over the past year.

This figure is based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, 11,174 residents were in work, with an unemployment rate of 3.0%, which is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was fairly standard at 66.5% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents included health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

Notably, the area had a concentration in education & training, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing employed just 2.9% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 5.2%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited employment opportunities locally, indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.1%, while labour force increased by 1.5%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment by 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, with an increase in unemployment of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offered further insight into potential future demand within Eltham. These projections suggested that national employment would expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Eltham's employment mix indicated that local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, although this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not take into account localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Eltham had a median income among taxpayers of $59,250 and an average level of $82,654 in financial year 2022. These figures are among the highest in Australia, compared to Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $66,455 (median) and $92,705 (average), based on a 12.16% growth in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, Eltham's household, family, and personal incomes rank highly nationally, between the 75th and 87th percentiles. The largest income bracket comprises 29.3% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (5,623 residents), with a substantial presence of higher earners at 39.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 88.1% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking in the 9th decile.

Eltham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Eltham, evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 85.9% houses and 14.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 0.0% houses and 0.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Eltham stood at 43.1%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (44.8%) or rented (12.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,250, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $440, compared to Melbourne metro's figures of $0 and $0 respectively. Nationally, Eltham's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $2,250 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375 at $440.

Eltham features high concentrations of family households, with a median household size of 2.8 people

Family households comprise 81.4% of all households, including 42.7% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 10.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.6%, with lone person households at 17.7% and group households comprising 0.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people.

Eltham demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 40.2% among residents aged 15+, exceeding the Australian average of 30.4%. This rate is also higher than that of the SA4 region at 32.8%, indicating a strong focus on higher education in the community. Bachelor degrees are the most common, held by 25.0% of residents, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.1%) and graduate diplomas (5.1%).

Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (17.2%). Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education. Eltham has a robust network of 6 schools educating approximately 3,327 students, demonstrating significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement (ICSEA: 1115). Educational provision is split between 3 primary and 3 secondary institutions, with 17.3 school places per 100 residents, indicating strong educational infrastructure serving both local and surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Eltham has 53 active public transport stops operating currently. These include a mix of train and bus services. There are 9 individual routes serving these stops, collectively providing 7,342 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good in Eltham, with residents typically located 372 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 1,048 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 138 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Eltham is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Eltham shows superior health outcomes for both young and elderly populations, with low prevalence rates for common conditions.

Approximately 59% of its total population of 11,403 have private health cover, a notably high figure. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 8.1 and 7.9% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 69.6%, report no medical ailments, contrasting with the 0% reported across Greater Melbourne. The area has a senior population (aged 65 and over) of 21.7%, comprising 4,164 individuals. Health outcomes among seniors in Eltham are particularly strong, outperforming general population health metrics.

In terms of cultural diversity, Eltham records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Eltham's cultural diversity aligns with its wider region, with 81.0% born in Australia, 91.9% being citizens, and 89.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 43.0%. Judaism, however, is overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to None% in Greater Melbourne.

Top ancestry groups include English (28.3%), Australian (24.1%), and Irish (9.9%). Notable divergences exist for Hungarian (0.4% vs None%), Macedonian (0.6% vs None%), and Italian (5.7% vs None%).

Eltham hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Eltham is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 12.8% of the population, while those aged 25-34 make up only 6.2%. Since 2021, the percentage of people aged 75 to 84 has grown from 5.3% to 7.1%, and the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.5% to 13.8%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has declined from 8.0% to 6.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Eltham's age structure. The number of individuals aged 75 to 84 is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 1,161 people (an 85% increase) from 1,362 to 2,524. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above are expected to account for 65% of total population growth, reflecting Eltham's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the age groups of 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 are projected to experience population declines.