Eltham (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Eltham reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Eltham's population is estimated at around 19,116 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 269 people (1.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,847 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 19,102 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 136 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,150 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of national statistical areas is projected, with the suburb expected to expand by 3,585 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 18.7% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Eltham, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Eltham has seen approximately 40 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between financial years FY-21 to FY-25, around 202 homes were approved, with an additional 34 approved so far in FY-26. Despite population decline in recent years, development activity has been adequate relative to the population change, which could benefit buyers.

The average expected construction cost value for new properties is $811,000, indicating a focus on premium segment dwellings. This financial year, $12.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting steady commercial investment activity. New developments consist of 52.0% detached houses and 48.0% attached dwellings, offering choices across price ranges from spacious family homes to more compact options.

This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 86.0% houses) suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. With around 506 people per dwelling approval, Eltham indicates a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Eltham is projected to grow by 3,571 residents by 2041. If current construction levels continue, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Eltham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 13 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Eltham and Diamond Creek Major Activity Centres Structure Plans, Eltham High School Upgrade and Modernisation, Eltham Lower Park Upgrade, Andrew Pocket Park Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Eltham rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Eltham has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.0% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.2%. As of December 2025, 11,122 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.8%, below Greater Melbourne's 4.8%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 41.4% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Notably, education & training had employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average, while transport, postal & warehousing employed just 2.9% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 5.2%.

Employment opportunities appeared limited locally, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.2%, labour force by 1.3%, with unemployment remaining largely unchanged. In contrast, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a slight increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industries. Applying these projections to Eltham's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

In financial year 2023, Eltham suburb had a median taxpayer income of $59,249 and an average income of $82,655. These figures are among the highest in Australia, compared to Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. By March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $64,949 (median) and $90,606 (average), based on a 9.62% increase since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, Eltham's household, family, and personal incomes rank highly nationally, between the 75th and 87th percentiles. The largest income segment comprises 29.3% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (5,600 residents), similar to regional levels where 32.8% fall within this range. Notably, 39.7% of residents earn more than $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power. After housing costs, residents retain 88.1% of their income, reflecting robust purchasing power, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Eltham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Eltham's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.9% houses and 14.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Eltham stood at 43.1%, with the rest being mortgaged (44.8%) or rented (12.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,250, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Eltham was $440, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Eltham's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,250 against the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Eltham features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.4% of all households, including 42.7% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 10.3% single parent families. Non-family households consist of the remaining 18.6%, with lone person households at 17.7% and group households comprising 0.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Eltham demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 40.2% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and the SA4 region's rate of 32.8%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.1%) and graduate diplomas (5.1%). Vocational credentials are held by 29.1% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas accounting for 11.9% and certificates for 17.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.5% in primary, 9.3% in secondary, and 5.1% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Eltham has 54 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that collectively facilitate 6,727 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as good, with residents typically living within 372 meters of the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuting in Eltham is outward-bound. Cars are the primary mode of transportation, used by 90% of residents, while trains account for only 5%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, which exceeds the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant proportion of residents, 41.4%, work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 961 trips per day, equating to approximately 124 weekly trips per individual stop.

Eltham's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Eltham's health outcomes, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence data, show outstanding results across all age groups, with a very low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 59% of Eltham's total population (11,360 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne.

Asthma and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in Eltham, affecting 8.1 and 7.9% of residents respectively. A higher proportion of Eltham residents, at 69.6%, report being completely clear of medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. The under-65 population in Eltham demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has a higher percentage of seniors aged 65 and over, with 22.6% (4,320 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors in Eltham are particularly strong, ranking broadly in line with the general population nationally.

In terms of cultural diversity, Eltham records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Eltham's population, as of the 2016 Census, showed cultural diversity levels similar to its wider region. 81.0% were born in Australia, 91.9% held citizenship, and 89.2% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 43.0%.

Judaism's representation stood at 0.2%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 1.0%. In terms of ancestry, English (28.3%) and Australian (24.1%) groups were notably higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4% respectively. Irish ancestry was present at 9.9%. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Hungarian at 0.4%, Macedonian at 0.6%, and Italian at 5.7%, compared to their respective regional averages of 0.3%, 0.7%, and 5.2%.

Eltham hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Eltham is 43 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 years make up 13.0% of the population, while those aged 25-34 years comprise only 6.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.3% to 7.6%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 12.5% to 14.3%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 8.0% to 6.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Eltham's age structure. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 1,068 people (74%) from 1,452 to 2,521. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 59% of total population growth, reflecting Eltham's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.