Eltham (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Eltham reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since Feb 2026, Eltham's estimated population is around 19,373. This reflects an increase of 526 people (2.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,847. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 19,011 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 130 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,166 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth rate for the suburb of Eltham (Vic.), expected to expand by 3,562 persons to reach a total population of approximately 23,935 by 2041, reflecting a gain of 16.4% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Eltham, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Eltham averaged around 40 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 202 homes were approved, with an additional 26 approved so far in FY-26. Despite a population decline over the past period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction value of new properties is $811,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year has seen $12.4 million in commercial approvals, reflecting balanced commercial development activity. New developments consist of 52.0% detached houses and 48.0% medium and high-density housing, showing an expanding range of medium-density options across various price brackets.

This represents a shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 86.0% houses. Eltham indicates a mature market with around 506 people per approval. Population forecasts estimate Eltham will gain 3,175 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Eltham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 13 projects that could impact the area significantly. Key initiatives include the Eltham and Diamond Creek Major Activity Centres Structure Plans, the Eltham High School Upgrade and Modernisation project, the Eltham Lower Park Upgrade, and the Andrew Pocket Park Development. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Eltham ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Eltham has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 1.8%. Over the past year, employment stability has been relative.

The unemployment rate in Eltham is 2.9% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%, and workforce participation is at par with Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 41.4% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Eltham shows strong specialization in education & training with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence at 2.9% compared to the regional average of 5.2%. The predominantly residential area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, Eltham's employment increased by 0.4%, labour force by 0.1%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with an increase in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Eltham's employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Eltham's employment mix.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Eltham had a median income among taxpayers of $59,249. The average income stood at $82,655 in this period. Nationally, these figures are high compared to median and average incomes of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively across Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated median income for Eltham as of September 2025 is approximately $64,137. The estimated average income during this period is around $89,474. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Eltham rank highly nationally, between the 75th and 87th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 29.3% of individuals in Eltham earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this earnings band. Economic strength is evident with 39.7% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 88.1% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Eltham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Eltham's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.9% houses and 14.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Eltham stood at 43.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.8% and rented ones at 12.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,250, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Eltham was $440, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Eltham's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Eltham features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.4% of all households, consisting of 42.7% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 10.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 18.6%, with lone person households at 17.7% and group households making up 0.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Eltham demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 40.2% among residents aged 15+, exceeding the Australian average of 30.4% and the SA4 region's rate of 32.8%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.1%) and graduate diplomas (5.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas constitute 11.9% while certificates account for 17.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Eltham indicates there are currently 54 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops cater to a mix of bus routes, with a total of 10 individual routes servicing them. Collectively, these routes facilitate 6,727 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 372 meters from their nearest transport stop. As Eltham is predominantly residential, most residents commute outward to other areas for work or leisure. The car remains the primary mode of transportation, used by 90% of residents, while train usage stands at 5%.

Vehicle ownership in the area averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a significant proportion, 41.4%, of Eltham's residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 961 trips per day, equating to approximately 124 weekly trips per individual stop.

Eltham's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Eltham's health outcomes data shows exceptional results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 59% of the total population (11,513 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne. Asthma and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 8.1 and 7.9% of residents respectively. A total of 69.6% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population in Eltham has better than average health outcomes. The area has 22.7% of residents aged 65 and over (4,397 people), which is higher than the 15.1% figure for Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with those of the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Eltham records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Eltham's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, with 81.0% of residents born in Australia, 91.9% being citizens, and 89.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Eltham, accounting for 43.0% of its population. The most significant deviation from regional norms is seen in Judaism, comprising 0.2% of Eltham's population compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, English (28.3%), Australian (24.1%), and Irish (9.9%) are the top groups represented in Eltham, each substantially higher than their respective regional averages of 20.1%, 18.4%, and not specified. Other notable differences include Hungarian at 0.4% (regional: 0.3%), Macedonian at 0.6% (regional: 0.7%), and Italian at 5.7% (regional: 5.2%).

Eltham hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Eltham is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 make up 13.1% of the population, while those aged 25-34 constitute only 5.9%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of those aged 75-84 has increased from 5.3% to 7.6%, and the 15-24 age group has grown from 12.5% to 13.9%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has decreased from 8.0% to 5.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Eltham's age structure. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to rise by 1,044 people (71%), from 1,472 to 2,517. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above are expected to account for 62% of total population growth. Conversely, the 0-4 and 35-44 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.