Eltham (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Eltham reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As per AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated by them, the suburb of Eltham (Vic.) had an estimated population of around 19,373 as of Feb 2026. This figure represents a rise of 526 people (2.8%) since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 18,847. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 19,011 in Jun 2024 and an additional 130 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 1,166 persons per square kilometer, aligning with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed around 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving growth for the area.

AreaSearch is employing ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they are utilising VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, the suburb of Eltham (Vic.) is projected to experience above median population growth in Australian statistical areas. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, it is expected to expand by 3,560 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 16.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Eltham, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Eltham has averaged approximately 40 new dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Around 202 homes were approved in the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with an additional 27 approved so far in FY-26. Despite a decrease in population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with varied buyer choices.

The average construction value of new properties is $811,000, indicating that developers are targeting the premium market segment. This year, $12.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting steady commercial development activity. New developments consist of 52.0% detached houses and 48.0% medium to high-density housing, offering a range of medium-density options across different price brackets.

This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 86.0% houses) suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse housing choices. Eltham currently averages around 506 people per approval, indicating a mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 3,198 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Eltham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects that may affect this region. Notable initiatives include the Eltham and Diamond Creek Major Activity Centres Structure Plans, Eltham High School Upgrade and Modernisation, Eltham Lower Park Upgrade, and Andrew Pocket Park Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Eltham rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Eltham has a highly educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 2.0% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.2%. As of December 2025, 11,089 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 2.8% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation was on par with Greater Melbourne at 71.3%. According to Census responses, 41.4% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Education & training had a particularly strong share of employment at 1.4 times the regional level, while transport, postal & warehousing had limited presence at 2.9% compared to the regional average of 5.2%.

The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparing working population and resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 1.2% alongside labour force growth of 1.2%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 3.0%. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, and an unemployment rate increase of 0.3 percentage points to 5.1%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts projected a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Eltham's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Eltham suburb had median taxpayer income of $59,249 and average income of $82,655. Nationally, these figures are high compared to $57,688 (median) and $75,164 (average) in Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% from financial year ended June 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $64,137 and average income is $89,474 as of September 2025. Eltham's incomes rank high nationally: household (75th-87th percentile), family (75th-87th percentile), personal (75th-87th percentile). Income distribution shows 29.3% (5,676 individuals) earn between $1,500 - $2,999, similar to surrounding region's 32.8%. High weekly earnings exceeding $3,000 are achieved by 39.7% of households, indicating strong consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 88.1% of income. Eltham's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Eltham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Eltham's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 85.9% houses and 14.1% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Eltham was 43.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.8% and rented ones at 12.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Eltham was $2,250, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent in Eltham was $440, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Eltham's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,250 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Eltham features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.4% of all households, including 42.7% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 10.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 18.6%, with lone person households at 17.7% and group households making up 0.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Eltham demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 40.2% among residents aged 15+, surpassing both the Australian average of 30.4% and the SA4 region's rate of 32.8%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 25.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.1%) and graduate diplomas (5.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 11.9% while certificates make up 17.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Eltham has 54 active public transport stops operating within it, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that together facilitate 6,727 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility in Eltham is considered good, with residents typically living an average of 372 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward. The car remains the primary mode of transportation for 90% of residents, while 5% use the train. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling in Eltham, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant 41.4% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 961 trips per day, equating to approximately 124 weekly trips per individual stop.

Eltham's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Eltham's health outcomes show excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Approximately 59% of Eltham's total population (11,513 people) have private health cover, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 56.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 8.1 and 7.9% of residents respectively. A total of 69.6% of Eltham residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Under-65 population health outcomes are better than average. Eltham has 23.0% of residents aged 65 and over (4,455 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors in Eltham align with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Eltham records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Eltham's cultural diversity aligns with the wider region, with 81.0% born in Australia, 91.9% being citizens, and 89.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 43.0%. Judaism, at 0.2%, is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

Top ancestral groups are English (28.3%), Australian (24.1%), and Irish (9.9%). Hungarian (0.4%) and Macedonian (0.6%) show notable overrepresentation, while Italian (5.7%) is slightly higher than the regional average.

Eltham hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Eltham is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are most prominent at 13.2%, while the 25-34 group is smaller at 6.0% compared to Greater Melbourne. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 5.3% to 7.7%, and the 15-24 cohort has increased from 12.5% to 14.0%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort has declined from 8.0% to 6.0%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Eltham's age structure. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to rise substantially by 71%, from 1,491 to 2,545 people. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 62% of total population growth, reflecting Eltham's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 35-44 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.