Eltham (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Eltham reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of November 2025, Eltham's population is estimated at around 19,371. This reflects an increase of 524 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,847. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 19,011 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,166 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median growth is projected for the area, expected to expand by 3,559 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 16.5% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Eltham, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Eltham has received approximately 40 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, about 202 homes have been approved, with an additional 26 approved in FY26 so far. Despite a declining population, development activity has remained adequate relative to population changes, benefiting buyers.

The average construction cost of new properties is $811,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. Commercial approvals totaling $12.4 million have been registered in FY26, demonstrating steady commercial investment activity. New developments consist of 52% detached houses and 48% attached dwellings, offering diverse housing options from spacious family homes to more affordable compact choices.

This shift reflects decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles. Eltham has a developed market with around 506 people per dwelling approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Eltham is expected to grow by 3189 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Eltham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 13 projects that could affect the area. Key projects include Eltham and Diamond Creek Major Activity Centres Structure Plans, Eltham High School Upgrade and Modernisation, Eltham Lower Park Upgrade, and Alistair Knox Park Changing Places Facility. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Eltham ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Eltham has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 1.8%.

Over the past year, it maintained relative employment stability. As of September 2025, 10,983 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.9%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation is 66.5%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

Notably, education & training has employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing employs only 2.9% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 5.2%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.3%, while labour force grew by 0.0%, leading to a decrease in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. State-wide, Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year as of 25-November 2025, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Nationally, employment is forecast to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Eltham's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Eltham had a median income among taxpayers of $59,249 and an average level of $82,655. These figures rank among the highest in Australia, compared to Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, current estimates for Eltham are approximately $64,137 (median) and $89,474 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Eltham rank highly nationally, between the 75th and 87th percentiles. The largest income segment comprises 29.3% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (5,675 residents), reflecting regional patterns where 32.8% fall within this range. A substantial presence of higher earners is evident, with 39.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 88.1% of income, indicating strong purchasing power. Eltham's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Eltham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with strong rates of outright home ownership

Eltham's dwelling structure in its latest Census comprised 85.9% houses and 14.1% other dwellings such as semi-detached properties, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. Home ownership stood at 43.1%, with 44.8% of dwellings mortgaged and 12.1% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,250, while the median weekly rent figure was $440. Nationally, Eltham's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Eltham features high concentrations of family households, with a median household size of 2.8 people

Family households constitute 81.4% of all households, including 42.7% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 10.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 18.6%, with lone person households at 17.7% and group households comprising 0.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people.

Eltham demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 40.2% among residents aged 15+ exceeding the Australian average of 30.4% and the SA4 region rate of 32.8%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.1%) and graduate diplomas (5.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 29.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (17.2%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.5% in primary, 9.3% in secondary, and 5.1% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Eltham has 54 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 10 individual routes that collectively facilitate 6,727 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good with residents typically located 372 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 961 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 124 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Eltham is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Eltham shows superior health outcomes for both younger and older age groups, with low prevalence rates for common health conditions.

Approximately 59% of Eltham's total population of 11,512 have private health cover, which is exceptionally high. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (8.1%) and arthritis (7.9%), while 69.6% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 0% across Greater Melbourne. As of the latest data (June 30, 20XX), 21.7% of Eltham's residents are aged 65 or over, totaling 4,203 people. Health outcomes among seniors in Eltham are particularly strong and outperform those of the general population across various health metrics.

In terms of cultural diversity, Eltham records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Eltham's population, like the wider region, was predominantly Australian-born with 81.0%. Citizenship stood at 91.9%, and English-only speakers were 89.2%. Christianity was the dominant religion at 43.0%.

Judaism, however, was overrepresented in Eltham at 0.2% compared to None% regionally. Top ancestry groups were English (28.3%), Australian (24.1%), and Irish (9.9%). Notable divergences included Hungarian (0.4% vs None%), Macedonian (0.6% vs None%), and Italian (5.7% vs None%) populations in Eltham.

Eltham hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Eltham is 43 years, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows a prominence of 65-74 year-olds (12.8%) compared to Greater Melbourne. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group is smaller at 6.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 5.3% to 7.1%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 12.5% to 13.8%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 8.0% to 6.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Eltham's age structure. The 75-84 age group is projected to rise substantially by 1,148 people (84%), from 1,375 to 2,524. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 66% of total population growth, reflecting Eltham's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 5-14 and 25-34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.