Doreen - South

Doreen - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Doreen - South's population was around 12,111 as of November 2025. This reflected an increase of 1,640 people from the 2021 Census figure of 10,471. The growth was inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 11,810 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 2,412 persons per square kilometer, placing Doreen - South in the upper quartile nationally. The area's growth rate of 15.7% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, indicating strong growth leadership. Natural growth contributed approximately 43.6% to overall population gains recently, with all drivers including interstate migration and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted via weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Doreen - South is projected to grow by 6,658 persons, reflecting a total increase of 52.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Doreen - South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Doreen - South has seen approximately 83 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 418 homes. As of FY-26, 10 approvals have been recorded. On average, 5.8 new residents arrive per year for each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25.

The supply of dwellings is substantially lagging demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties are constructed at an average value of $232,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Doreen - South has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 52nd percentile nationally.

Recent construction comprises 96.0% standalone homes and 4.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With approximately 303 people per dwelling approval, Doreen - South shows a developing market. According to AreaSearch quarterly estimates, Doreen - South is forecasted to gain 6,357 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Doreen - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. A single project has been identified by AreaSearch as likely impacting this area. Notable projects include Mernda Community Hospital, River Run, Mernda Rise Estate, and Station Road Development Plan. These are detailed below for their potential relevance:.

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Employment conditions in Doreen - South demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Doreen - South has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate as of September 2025 is 2.9%.

Over the past year, employment growth was estimated at 0.6%. In September 2025, 6718 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.8% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Doreen - South is 74.7%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 6.7% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 0.6% while labour force grew by 0.5%, with unemployment remaining unchanged. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced higher employment growth at 3.0%. State-level data from November 25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Nationally, employment grew by 0.14%, with a lower unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Doreen - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Doreen - South SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $60,502 and an average of $69,468. This is higher than the national average. Greater Melbourne's median income was $54,892 with an average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $67,859 (median) and $77,915 (average). The 2021 Census data indicates incomes in Doreen - South cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 45.2% of residents (5,474 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, similar to regional levels at 32.8%. High housing costs consume 17.9% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 70th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Doreen - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Doreen - South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.6% houses and 8.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 87.2% houses and 12.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Doreen - South was at 14.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 62.5% and rented ones at 23.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,900 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $386, compared to Melbourne metro's $371 and the national figure of $375.

Doreen - South features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 83.6% of all households, including 46.5% couples with children, 21.8% couples without children, and 14.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 16.4%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 1.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Doreen - South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Doreen's residents aged 15+ have 28.2% university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are held by 38.5% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 13.4% and certificates at 25.1%. Educational participation is high, with 33.0% currently enrolled in formal education: 13.2% in primary, 7.3% in secondary, and 4.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.2% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 33 operational stops within Doreen - South area, all of which are bus services. These stops are served by three distinct routes, together facilitating 2027 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents generally located 241 meters away from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 289 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 61 weekly trips per individual stop.

Doreen - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Doreen-South, particularly for younger cohorts who have a very low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 54% of the total population (~6,588 people) has private health cover, compared to 49.8% across Greater Melbourne.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.5% and 8.3% of residents respectively. 75.2% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.0% across Greater Melbourne. Doreen-South has 8.0% of its population aged 65 and over (965 people), lower than the 13.2% in Greater Melbourne. While health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population, overall results are outstanding.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Doreen - South was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Doreen-South, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data from June 2016, had a higher level of cultural diversity compared to most local markets. The overseas-born population was 24.6%, with 24.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 43.5% of Doreen-South's population.

However, the 'Other' religious category was overrepresented in Doreen-South at 2.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.4%. In terms of ancestry, Australian (24.7%) and English (22.5%) were significantly higher than regional averages of 17.3% and 15.5% respectively. 'Other' ancestry was notably lower at 11.4%, compared to the region's 17.4%. Certain ethnic groups showed notable differences: Macedonian (1.5%), Sri Lankan (0.9%), and Italian (6.7%) were overrepresented in Doreen-South relative to regional averages of 4.6%, 0.8%, and 9.6% respectively.

Doreen - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Doreen-South has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Doreen-South has a higher concentration of residents aged 35-44 (21.6%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (7.3%). This 35-44 age group is significantly higher than the national average of 14.2%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 20.1% to 21.6%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has risen from 10.8% to 12.3%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 17.9% to 13.7%, and the 0 to 4 age group has dropped from 10.4% to 9.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic shifts in Doreen-South, with the 45 to 54 cohort projected to grow by 99%, adding 1,476 residents to reach a total of 2,961.