Hurstbridge

An assessment of population growth drivers in Hurstbridge reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Hurstbridge's population was around 3,521 as of May 2026. This showed a decrease of 33 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,554. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,521 in June 2025 and an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 237 persons per square kilometer. While Hurstbridge saw a 0.9% decline since census, the SA3 area had 1.8% growth, indicating divergent trends. Overseas migration contributed approximately 50.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they use VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, statistical areas are projected to have above median population growth, with this area expected to grow by 575 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 16.3% over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Hurstbridge is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Hurstbridge has recorded approximately four residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 24 homes were approved, with three more approved so far in FY26. This rate of new supply may have been keeping pace with demand despite population decline, offering buyers good choice while new properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $285,000, which is under regional levels, indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers.

In the current financial year, $2.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to Greater Melbourne. Hurstbridge has about half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 12th percentile of areas assessed nationally, suggesting more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. Recent development has been entirely comprised of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 1324 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Future projections show Hurstbridge adding 575 residents by 2041, which could lead to housing supply lagging population growth if current construction levels persist, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Hurstbridge has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely impacting the region: Diamond Creek Trail Extension to Hurstbridge. Other key projects include Diamond Creek Community Infrastructure Master Plan, North East Link - Tolling Services Package (commencing 2021), and North East Link - Early Works (beginning late 2020).

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Employment conditions in Hurstbridge demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Hurstbridge has a well-educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% as of December 2025, which is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. The estimated employment growth over the past year was 1.1%.

In Hurstbridge, 74.7% of residents participate in the workforce, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 31.5% of residents work from home. Dominant employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction has a notably high concentration with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 7.0% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 1.1%, while labour force increased by 1.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, resulting in a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Hurstbridge's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, although this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest data for financial year 2023 shows Hurstbridge SA2 had a median income of $57,271 and an average income of $74,630. Nationally, these figures are high compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. By March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $62,780 (median) and $81,809 (average), based on a 9.62% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census reveals Hurstbridge's household, family, and personal incomes cluster around the 71st percentile nationally. Incomes in the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominate with 35.2% of residents (1,239 people), similar to the surrounding region at 32.8%. High weekly earnings exceeding $3,000 are achieved by 31.4% of households, indicating strong consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 86.7% of income, reflecting robust purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Hurstbridge is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Hurstbridge's dwellings, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 97.5% houses and 2.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Hurstbridge was at 36.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.0% and rented ones at 10.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $420, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390 respectively. Nationally, Hurstbridge's mortgage repayments were higher than Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Hurstbridge features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 81.5% of all households, including 43.1% couples with children, 26.1% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 18.5%, with lone person households at 17.3% and group households comprising 1.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Hurstbridge shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

University qualification levels in Hurstbridge are at 32.2%, slightly below Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 20.9% of residents holding one. Postgraduate qualifications and graduate diplomas follow, at 6.7% and 4.6% respectively.

Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.9% of residents aged 15+ possessing them. Advanced diplomas account for 11.9%, while certificates make up 26.0%. Educational participation is high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Hurstbridge has five active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by five different routes, offering a total of 2013 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is limited, with residents typically located 782 meters from the nearest stop. Most Hurstbridge residents commute outward daily. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 91% of residents. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 31.5% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 287 trips per day, equating to approximately 402 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Hurstbridge is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Hurstbridge shows better-than-average health outcomes according to AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence across both young and elderly age groups.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low in this area. Approximately 56% (~1975 people) have private health cover, which is quite high. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 9.5% and 8.5% of residents respectively. Around 67.7% claim to be free from medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among working-age individuals in Hurstbridge are generally typical. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 19.9% (701 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Senior health outcomes in Hurstbridge are notably strong, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Hurstbridge is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Hurstbridge, as per data collected in 2016, had a low cultural diversity with 87.8% of its residents born in Australia and 94.3% being citizens. In terms of language, 95.9% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 34.9%.

However, Judaism was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 1.0%. Regarding ancestry, English (28.6%) and Australian (28.4%) were significantly higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4% respectively. Irish ancestry stood at 11.3%. Notable overrepresentations included Welsh (1.0%), Scottish (9.6%), and Maltese (1.0%).

Hurstbridge's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Hurstbridge's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Hurstbridge has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (12.3% locally) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (9.7%). According to the 2021 Census, the 65-74 age group increased from 10.4% to 12.3%, while the 75-84 cohort grew from 4.3% to 6.0%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group decreased from 14.0% to 11.7%, and the 35-44 age group dropped from 12.6% to 11.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Hurstbridge's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 91%, adding 192 residents to reach 405. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 58% of the population growth, while the 5-14 and 15-24 age groups are projected to decline in population.