Mernda

Mernda lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Mernda's estimated population is around 26,327. This reflects an increase of 2,958 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,369. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 25,564 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 456 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,105 persons per square kilometer. Mernda's growth of 12.7% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (9.7%) and state averages, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period, with the area expected to expand by 17,456 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 63.4% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Mernda was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Mernda averaged approximately 149 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 745 homes. By FY26, 64 approvals have been recorded. Each year between FY21 and FY25, an average of 4.7 people moved to the area per dwelling built. This high demand coupled with limited supply typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition.

The average construction value for new dwellings is $407,000. In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $849,000, indicating a predominantly residential focus in Mernda. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mernda has significantly reduced construction activity (55.0% below regional average per person), which usually strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New building activity consists of 81.0% detached dwellings and 19.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with an average of around 174 people per approval.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mernda is projected to add approximately 16,693 residents by 2041. If current construction levels continue, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Mernda has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 34 projects likely impacting this region. Notable projects are Mernda Town Centre, Regional Sports Precinct Mernda, Mernda Rise Estate, and River Run. The following details projects expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Mernda exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Mernda has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.6%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.1%. As of September 2025, 14,274 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0% below Greater Melbourne's and a workforce participation rate of 71.0%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area specializes in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 5.6%, compared to 10.1% regionally. Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by Census data comparing working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 1.1%, while labour force grew by 0.6%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0% and a slight increase in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mernda's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

The suburb of Mernda had a median taxpayer income of $54,995 and an average income of $63,145 in financial year 2023, according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Melbourne's median income being $57,688 and average income being $75,164. By September 2025, estimates based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth project the median income to be approximately $59,532 and the average income to be around $68,354. The 2021 Census shows household, family, and personal incomes in Mernda clustering at the 64th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate that 41.9% of Mernda's population (11,031 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, which is similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 18.0% of income in Mernda, yet strong earnings place disposable income at the 63rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Mernda is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Mernda, as per the latest Census evaluation, 89.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 10.7% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This is compared to Melbourne metro's 87.2% houses and 12.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mernda stood at 14.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 57.0% and rented ones at 28.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,937, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,900. The median weekly rent in Mernda was $381, compared to Melbourne metro's $371. Nationally, Mernda's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Mernda features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 83.2% of all households, including 48.5% couples with children, 20.0% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 16.8%, with lone person households at 15.0% and group households making up 1.8%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Mernda shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Mernda's educational qualifications trail Greater Melbourne's benchmarks, with 31.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 37.0%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 19.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 34.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.3%) and certificates (21.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 13.5% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mernda has 82 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 9 different routes, together facilitating 8,016 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 252 meters to the nearest stop.

Daily service frequency averages 1,145 trips across all routes, translating to about 97 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mernda's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Mernda's health outcomes data shows excellent results across all age groups, with younger cohorts having particularly low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 52% (~13,642 people) of Mernda's total population has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.3% and 6.9% of residents respectively. A majority, 76.7%, report being free from medical ailments, compared to 74.0% across Greater Melbourne. Mernda has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 9.2% (2,422 people), versus Greater Melbourne's 13.2%. While health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population, they present some challenges that need to be addressed.

Mernda is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Mernda has a high cultural diversity, with 36.4% of its population born overseas and 40.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Mernda, comprising 47.0% of its people. Hinduism is overrepresented in Mernda compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 9.9% versus 6.3%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (18.2%), Other (17.9%), and English (16.7%). Notably, Macedonian (2.8%) and Indian (9.1%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Mernda compared to regional averages of 4.6% and 6.2%, respectively. Sri Lankan ethnicity is also slightly overrepresented at 1.1%.

Mernda's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Mernda's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Mernda has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (21.2%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (7.3%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.2%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of Mernda's population aged 45 to 54 has increased from 11.2% to 12.8%, while the proportion of those aged 75 to 84 has risen from 2.2% to 3.3%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 16.5% to 13.6%, and the proportion of children aged 0 to 4 has dropped from 9.6% to 7.7%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Mernda, with the 45 to 54 age group projected to grow by 112%, adding 3,777 residents and reaching a total of 7,147.