Lalor - East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lalor - East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Lalor - East's population, according to AreaSearch's analysis, is approximately 10,243 as of November 2025. This figure indicates a rise of 296 individuals, representing a 3.0% increase since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 9,947. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,202 as of June 2024 and an additional 67 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,085 persons per square kilometer, placing Lalor - East in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 82.9% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Lalor - East is forecasted to experience significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas, with an expected rise of 3,789 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 36.5% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lalor - East according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lalor - East has seen approximately 35 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 175 homes were approved, with an additional 8 approved so far in FY26. Despite a decline in population during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to the population change, which is positive for buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new properties is $337,000. This year, $278,000 worth of commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Lalor - East has shown significantly reduced construction activity, with 76.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes, which is also below the national average, suggesting possible planning constraints. The new building activity shows 43.0% detached houses and 57.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 83.0% houses. This skew towards compact living offers affordable entry pathways, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 281 people per dwelling approval, Lalor - East shows characteristics of a low-density area.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Lalor - East is projected to add approximately 3,741 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Lalor - East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 14 such projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are the 2 David Street Apartments project, the Lalor Recreation Reserve Master Plan, the Melbourne Wholesale Markets initiative, and the New Epping Health Hub development. The following list provides details on those projects likely to have the most relevance.

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Employment conditions in Lalor - East face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lalor - East has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented. The unemployment rate was 8.0% as of September 2025.

Employment stability has been relative over the past year. There are currently 4,403 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.3%, which is 3.3 percentage points above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation lags significantly at 50.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing.

The area has a particular employment specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical employs only 4.8% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, labour force increased by 0.2%, while employment remained unchanged at 0.0%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0% and labour force grow by 3.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points during this period. State-level data from 25-Nov-2025 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-2025, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lalor - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data shows Lalor - East SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $46,257 and an average of $53,307 in financial year 2022. These figures are below the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 for Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since FY2022, estimated median income is approximately $51,882 and average is $59,789 by September 2025. Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Lalor - East fall between the 4th and 15th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 29.6% of locals (3,031 people) earn $1,500-$2,999, similar to the broader area at 32.8%. Housing affordability is severe, with only 82.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 14th percentile.

Lalor - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Lalor - East's dwellings were 82.9% houses and 17.0% other types at the latest Census, compared to Melbourne metro's 87.2% houses and 12.8% others. Home ownership in Lalor - East was 40.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.0% and rented ones at 34.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,663, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,900. Median weekly rent in Lalor - East was $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $371. Nationally, Lalor - East's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,663 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were less at $350 compared to the national figure of $375.

Lalor - East features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 70.7% of all households, including 30.7% couples with children, 23.4% couples without children, and 14.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 29.3%, with lone person households at 24.9% and group households comprising 4.5%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Educational outcomes in Lalor - East fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 21.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 27.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (17.9%). Educational participation is high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.3% in primary education, 6.5% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lalor - East has 41 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that collectively facilitate 3,562 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is considered good, with residents typically situated about 200 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 508 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 86 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lalor - East is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Lalor East faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47%, compared to 49.8% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 8.8% of residents) and mental health issues (7.3%), while 69.0% report being free from medical ailments, compared to 74.0% in Greater Melbourne.

As of June 2021, 20.8% of Lalor East's population is aged 65 and over (2,126 people), higher than the 13.2% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to these challenges.

Lalor - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lalor-East is among the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 52.8% of its population born overseas and 65.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lalor-East, comprising 48.8% of the population. Islam is notably overrepresented in Lalor-East, making up 14.3% compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 9.1%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are 'Other' at 22.6%, Australian at 11.0%, and English at 10.9%. Notably, Macedonian is overrepresented at 6.2%, Greek at 7.5%, and Vietnamese at 5.5% compared to regional averages of 4.6%, 4.1%, and 1.6% respectively.

Lalor - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Lalor-East is 38 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Lalor-East has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (7.8%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.4%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 85+ has grown from 2.9% to 3.6%, while the 5-14 age group has declined from 10.4% to 9.4%. By 2041, Lalor-East's age composition is expected to shift significantly. Notably, the 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 57% (662 people), reaching 1,827 from its current total of 1,164.