Thomastown

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thomastown reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Thomastown's population is approximately 21,174 as of February 2026. This represents an increase of 1,176 individuals, a rise of 5.9% since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 19,998. This growth can be inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,541 in June 2024 and an additional 357 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is around 1,441 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 85.1% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Thomastown is projected to have a population of 26,757, an increase of 5,583 persons or 23.4% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thomastown according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thomastown averaged approximately 79 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with a total of 396 homes approved during this period. In FY26 up until now, there have been 36 dwelling approvals. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction cost value for new properties is $248,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year has seen $44.8 million in commercial approvals, indicating strong local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thomastown has significantly less development activity, with 73.0% fewer approvals per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New building activity consists of 44.0% detached dwellings and 56.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift towards compact living to offer affordable entry pathways and attract downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (84.0%), likely due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Thomastown has approximately 267 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low-density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Thomastown is projected to gain 4,947 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Thomastown has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 28 projects that may impact the area. Key projects include Thomastown Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), Edgars Creek Trail Extension, Thomas Green Townhomes, and New Epping. The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Thomastown faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Thomastown has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented. The unemployment rate was 7.9% in September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.3% over the past year. As of this date, 8,804 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 3.2% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation lagged significantly at 54.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 16.1% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries among residents were health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. Thomastown showed strong specialization in manufacturing with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services had limited presence at 5.1%, compared to 10.1% regionally. The ratio of 0.9 workers per resident indicated substantial local employment opportunities. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.3% while labour force grew by 0.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued in May-25, projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thomastown's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The latest postcode level ATO data from AreaSearch for financial year 2023 shows Thomastown SA2's median income among taxpayers is $48,576. The average income for the area was $55,414. Nationally, this is lower than average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $57,688 and the average was $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Thomastown would be approximately $52,584 (median) and $59,986 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family, and personal incomes in Thomastown all fall between the 3rd and 15th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 28.6% of residents (6,055 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Thomastown, with only 83.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 15th percentile nationally.

Thomastown is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Thomastown's housing structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.3% houses and 15.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thomastown was at 44.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.0% and rented ones at 29.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,700, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000, while median weekly rent stood at $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Thomastown's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Thomastown has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 72.5% of all households, including 31.2% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 27.5%, with lone person households at 24.4% and group households comprising 3.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational outcomes in Thomastown fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate was 20.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials were held by 26.0% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.0% and certificates at 17.0%. Educational participation was high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This included 7.8% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thomastown has 117 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 14 different routes that collectively facilitate 8,435 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as good, with residents typically located 202 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward using their cars, which remain the dominant mode of transportation at 83%. Eleven percent of residents use the train for commuting. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling in Thomastown.

According to the 2021 Census data, some 16.1% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 1,205 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 72 weekly trips per individual stop. An accompanying map displays the locations of the 100 nearest stops to the area's centrepoint.

The level of general health in Thomastown is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Thomastown shows superior health outcomes based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 47% of Thomastown's total population (~10,036 people), significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and diabetes are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 8.5% and 7.1% of residents respectively. However, 69.7% of Thomastown residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. The under-65 population has better health outcomes than average. Thomastown has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 22.7% (4,800 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%, but ranks lower nationally than the broader population.

Thomastown is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thomastown has one of the most diverse populations in the country, with 54.2% of its residents born overseas and 68.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Thomastown, making up 50.3% of the population. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's average, comprising 16.2% of Thomastown's population.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (22.8%), Italian (12.3%), and Australian (10.2%). Notably, Macedonian (8.4%), Greek (6.8%), and Vietnamese (6.1%) ethnicities are also significantly overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Thomastown's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Thomastown is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 75-84 age group is notably over-represented at 9.0% locally, while the 35-44 age group is under-represented at 13.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has grown from 7.9% to 9.0%, and the 65-74 age group has declined from 11.3% to 10.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Thomastown, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 38%, adding 865 people to reach a total of 3,144 from 2,278. The 0-4 age group is projected to grow at a more modest rate of 8%, adding 93 residents.