Thomastown

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thomastown reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Thomastown's population was 19,998 according to the 2021 Census. By May 2026, it had increased to around 20,608, reflecting a rise of 610 people (3.1%). This increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 20,601 in June 2025 and the addition of 369 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was therefore 1,402 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 83.9% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for SA2 areas released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they use Victorian Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Thomastown is forecasted to have a significant population increase, with an expected expansion of 5,604 persons by 2041. This reflects a total increase of 27.1% over the 16-year period, using the latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thomastown according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thomastown has averaged approximately 79 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 396 homes. As of FY2025-26, 49 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline suggests that new supply may be keeping pace with demand, offering buyers good choice while new properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $248,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms. This financial year has seen $44.8 million in commercial development approvals, indicating high levels of local commercial activity.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thomastown has significantly less development activity, with 72.0% fewer approvals per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New building activity shows a skew towards compact living, with 44.0% detached dwellings and 56.0% attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a considerable shift from the current housing mix of 84.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 267 people per dwelling approval, Thomastown exhibits characteristics of a low density area. Population forecasts indicate Thomastown will gain approximately 5,591 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Population forecasts indicate Thomastown will gain 5,591 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Thomastown has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 27 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include the Thomastown Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), Edgars Creek Trail Extension, Thomas Green Townhomes, and Thomastown High Street Improvements. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Thomastown face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Thomastown has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 8.8% as of December 2021, showing relative employment stability over the past year compared to Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. As of December 2025, Thomastown's unemployment rate is 4.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's, indicating room for improvement.

Workforce participation in Thomastown lags behind Greater Melbourne at 55.0% versus 69.9%. According to Census responses from 2021, a moderate 16.1% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction sectors. Manufacturing has a particularly high employment share of 1.6 times the regional level, while professional & technical services have limited presence at 5.1%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

The ratio of workers to residents as of the Census is 0.9, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment in Thomastown increased by 0.4% while labour force grew by 1.2%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced stronger growth with employment increasing by 2.4% and labour force growing by 2.8%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate overall expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thomastown's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are illustrative extrapolations based on national figures.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Thomastown SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $48,576 and an average of $55,414. This is lower than the national average. Greater Melbourne, meanwhile, had a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimates for March 2026 would be approximately $53,249 (median) and $60,745 (average). Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Thomastown fall between the 3rd and 15th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 28.6% of residents (5,893 people), similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 15th percentile.

Thomastown is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census data shows that Thomastown's dwelling structures were 84.3% houses and 15.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thomastown was at 44.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.0% and rented ones at 29.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,700, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure for Thomastown was $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Thomastown's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Thomastown has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 72.5% of all households, including 31.2% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 27.5%, with lone person households at 24.4% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational outcomes in Thomastown fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 20.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 26.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas account for 9.0% and certificates for 17.0%. Educational participation is high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 7.8% in primary, 6.7% in secondary, and 5.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.8% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Thomastown indicates that there are 117 active transport stops currently operating, serving a variety of bus routes. These stops are serviced by 14 individual routes, collectively providing 8,435 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in the area is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 202 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward for work purposes. The dominant mode of transportation remains the car at 83%, while 11% of residents use the train for their commutes. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling in Thomastown.

According to the 2021 Census, some 16.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect conditions related to COVID-19. The service frequency averages 1,205 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 72 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanying the analysis shows the locations of the 100 nearest stops to the area's centrepoint.

The level of general health in Thomastown is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Thomastown shows superior health outcomes based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 47% (~9,768 people) have private health cover, which is significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%.

Nationally, this figure stands at 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and diabetes, affecting 8.5% and 7.1% of residents respectively. A total of 69.7% claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Health outcomes for the under-65 population are better than average. Thomastown has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 22.1% (4,564 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. However, this figure is lower nationally when considering the broader population.

Thomastown is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thomastown has a high level of cultural diversity, with 54.2% of its population born overseas and 68.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Thomastown, making up 50.3% of the population. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented, comprising 16.2%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (22.8%), Italian (12.3%), and Australian (10.2%). Notably, Macedonian (8.4%) and Greek (6.8%) groups are overrepresented in Thomastown compared to regional averages of 0.7% and 2.7%, respectively. Additionally, the Vietnamese population is notably higher at 6.1% compared to the regional average of 1.9%.

Thomastown's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Thomastown is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thomastown has a notably higher proportion of people aged 75-84 (8.8% locally), while those aged 5-14 are under-represented (9.5%). According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 7.9% to 8.8%, while the 65 to 74 cohort has decreased from 11.3% to 9.9%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Thomastown, with the 45 to 54 age group expected to grow by 42%, reaching 3,097 people from 2,174.