Thomastown
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thomastown reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Thomastown's population was approximately 19,998 as of March 2021. By November 2025, it had increased to around 21,212, reflecting a growth of 6.1% since the census. This increase is inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses between June 2024 (population: 20,898) and March 2021. The population density in Thomastown was approximately 1,444 persons per square kilometer as of November 2025, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Thomastown's growth rate since the census (6.1%) is within 2.8 percentage points of the national average (8.9%). Overseas migration contributed approximately 85.1% of overall population gains during recent periods in Thomastown.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in June 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from December 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Thomastown is projected to experience a significant population increase, with an expected growth of 5,583 persons, reflecting a total increase of 23.1% over the 17-year period from November 2025.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thomastown according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thomastown has averaged approximately 79 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 396 homes were approved, with an additional 25 approved so far in FY26. Despite a decrease in population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction cost value for new properties is $248,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year has seen $44.8 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thomastown has significantly less development activity, with 73.0% fewer approvals per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. The new building activity shows a split of 44.0% detached dwellings and 56.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift towards compact living that appeals to downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (84.0%). With around 267 people per dwelling approval, Thomastown exhibits characteristics of a low-density area.

Population forecasts indicate that Thomastown will gain approximately 4,909 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Thomastown has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 28 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Thomastown Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), Thomas Green Townhomes, Edgars Creek Trail Extension, and Thomastown High Street Improvements. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Thomastown faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Thomastown has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate is 7.3%, with an estimated employment growth of 4.0% over the past year.

As of June 2025, Thomastown has 8,876 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.7% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Thomastown is significantly lower at 49.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. Thomastown shows strong specialization in manufacturing with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have limited presence at 5.1% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The ratio of 0.9 workers per resident indicates substantial local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment in Thomastown increased by 4.0%, while the labour force grew by 1.4%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate of 2.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5% during the same period, with an increase in unemployment of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project that Thomastown's employment could grow approximately 6.0%% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Thomastown's median income among taxpayers is $45,243. The average income in Thomastown was $51,885 during this period. Nationally, incomes were higher on average. Greater Melbourne had a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761 in the same year. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes for Thomastown are approximately $50,745 (median) and $58,194 (average), as of September 2025. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Thomastown fall between the 4th and 15th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 28.6% of residents (6,066 people) earn within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Thomastown, with only 83.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 15th percentile nationally.

Thomastown is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Thomastown's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.3% houses and 15.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Melbourne metro's 87.2% houses and 12.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thomastown was higher at 44.3%, with the rest being mortgaged (26.0%) or rented (29.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,700, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,900 and the national average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Thomastown was $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $371 and the national figure of $375.

Thomastown has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 72.5% of all households, consisting of 31.2% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 27.5%, with lone person households at 24.4% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Educational outcomes in Thomastown fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 20.4%, substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 6.0% and graduate diplomas at 1.4%. Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 26.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 9.0% and certificates at 17.0%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.8% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education. A robust network of 8 schools operates within Thomastown, educating approximately 2,203 students while the area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 985) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with 7 primary and 1 secondary schools serving distinct age groups. School places per 100 residents at 10.4 fall below the regional average of 13.1, with some students likely attending schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Thomastown shows that there are 115 active transport stops operating. These comprise a mix of train and bus services. The area is served by 10 individual routes which collectively provide 11,756 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good with residents typically located 202 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 1,679 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 102 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Thomastown are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Thomastown shows below-average health outcomes, with common conditions slightly more prevalent across both younger and older age groups compared to average. Private health cover rate is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~9799 people), versus Greater Melbourne's 49.8% and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.5%) and diabetes (7.1%), while 69.7% of residents declare no medical ailments, compared to 74.0% in Greater Melbourne.

Thomastown has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 22.1% (4698 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 13.2%.

Thomastown is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thomastown has a culturally diverse population, with 54.2% born overseas and 68.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Thomastown, comprising 50.3% of its population. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's average, making up 16.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (22.8%), Italian (12.3%), and Australian (10.2%). Notably, Macedonian (8.4%), Greek (6.8%), and Vietnamese (6.1%) ethnicities have higher representations than the regional averages.

Thomastown's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Thomastown is 39 years, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and close to the national average of 38. Comparing with Greater Melbourne, the 75-84 age group is notably higher at 8.7% locally while the 5-14 age group is lower at 9.8%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has increased from 7.9% to 8.7%, and the 65-74 cohort has decreased from 11.3% to 10.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Thomastown. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 50% (918 people), reaching 2,758 from 1,839. The 0-4 age group shows modest growth of 7%, adding only 76 residents.