Thomastown

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thomastown reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Thomastown's population is around 21,174 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,176 people (5.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,998 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,541 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 357 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,441 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 85.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 5,583 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 23.4% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thomastown according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thomastown has averaged around 79 new dwelling approvals per year, with 396 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 38 so far in FY-26. Given population has fallen over the past period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $248,000—below the regional average—suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Additionally, $44.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting robust local business investment.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Thomastown has significantly less development activity (73.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New building activity shows 44.0% detached dwellings and 56.0% attached dwellings. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 84.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 267 people per dwelling approval, Thomastown shows characteristics of a low density area.

Population forecasts indicate Thomastown will gain 4,947 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Thomastown has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 28 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Thomastown Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), Edgars Creek Trail Extension, Thomas Green Townhomes, and New Epping, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Thomastown face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Thomastown has a skilled workforce, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, an unemployment rate of 8.8%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,794 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 4.1% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (55.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 16.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care and social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. The area has a particular employment specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Meanwhile, professional and technical services have a limited presence, with 5.1% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The ratio of 0.9 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates substantial local employment opportunities.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.4% while the labour force increased by 1.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Thomastown. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Thomastown's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Thomastown SA2's median income among taxpayers is $48,576, with an average of $55,414. This is lower than average on a national basis, and compares to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $52,584 (median) and $59,986 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Thomastown all fall between the 3rd and 15th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 28.6% of residents (6,055 people), reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 15th percentile.

Thomastown is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Thomastown, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 84.3% houses and 15.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Thomastown was higher than that of Melbourne metro, at 44.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (26.0%) or rented (29.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,700, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Thomastown's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Thomastown has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 72.5% of all households, comprising 31.2% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.5%, with lone person households at 24.4% and group households comprising 3.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.6 people matches the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational outcomes in Thomastown fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (20.4%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 26.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (17.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.8% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 117 active transport stops operating within Thomastown, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 14 individual routes, collectively providing 8,435 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 202 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 83%, with 11% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling. Some 16.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 1,205 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 72 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

The level of general health in Thomastown is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Thomastown demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population, though higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~10,036 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and diabetes, impacting 8.5% and 7.1% of residents, respectively, while 69.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 22.7% of residents aged 65 and over (4,800 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Thomastown is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thomastown is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 54.2% of its population born overseas and 68.9% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Thomastown is Christianity, which makes up 50.3% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Islam, which comprises 16.2% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Thomastown are Other, comprising 22.8% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, Italian, comprising 12.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 5.2%, and Australian, comprising 10.2% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 18.4%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Macedonian is notably overrepresented at 8.4% of Thomastown (vs 0.7% regionally), Greek at 6.8% (vs 2.7%) and Vietnamese at 6.1% (vs 1.9%).

Thomastown's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The 39-year median age in Thomastown is somewhat higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and similarly very close to the 38-year national average. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 75 - 84 cohort is notably over-represented (9.0% locally), while 35 - 44 year-olds are under-represented (13.4%). Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.9% to 9.0% of the population. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 11.3% to 10.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Thomastown. Leading the demographic shift, the 45 to 54 group will grow by 38% (865 people), reaching 3,144 from 2,278. The 0 to 4 group displays more modest growth at 8%, adding only 93 residents.