Thomastown
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thomastown reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Thomastown's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 21,214 people. This figure represents an increase of 1,216 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,998. The growth from June 2024's estimated resident population of 20,918, along with 353 validated new addresses, accounts for this increase. Thomastown's population density is 1,444 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average. Its 6.1% growth since the census places it within 2.5 percentage points of the national average of 8.6%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 85.1% of Thomastown's recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a weighted aggregation method to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Thomastown is projected to have a population increase of 5,583 persons, reflecting a total increase of 23.1% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thomastown according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thomastown has averaged approximately 79 new dwelling approvals annually. Development approval data, produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, shows 396 homes approved over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with 15 approvals recorded so far in FY-26. Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas, benefiting buyers. The average expected construction cost of new homes is $382,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options.

In FY-26 alone, there have been $44.8 million in commercial approvals, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thomastown has significantly less development activity, with 73.0% fewer approvals per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. New building activity comprises 44.0% detached dwellings and 56.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift towards compact living to offer affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This marks a significant change from the current housing mix of 84.0% houses. With around 267 people per dwelling approval, Thomastown exhibits a developing market. Population forecasts project Thomastown will gain 4,907 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Thomastown has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 30 such projects likely affecting this region. Notable ones include Thomastown Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), Thomas Green Townhomes, Edgars Creek Trail Extension, and New Epping Health Hub, with the following list outlining those most pertinent.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment drivers in Thomastown are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Thomastown has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.3% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 4.0% over the past year.

As of this date, 8,876 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Thomastown lagged significantly at 49.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents included health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. Manufacturing had particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services had limited presence with 5.1% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The ratio of workers to residents was 0.9 as at the Census, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 4.0%, labour force grew by 1.4%, and unemployment fell by 2.3 percentage points in Thomastown. This contrasted with Greater Melbourne where employment rose by 3.5%, labour force grew by 4.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thomastown's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.0%% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Thomastown's median income among taxpayers was $45,243 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $51,885 during the same period. These figures are lower than Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. By March 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest Thomastown's median income could be approximately $49,817 and the average around $57,131. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Thomastown fall between the 4th and 15th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 28.6% of locals (6,067 people), earning between $1,500 - 2,999 annually. This pattern is similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% of residents fall within this income range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Thomastown, with only 83.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 15th percentile nationally.

Thomastown is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Thomastown's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consists of 84.3% houses and 15.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 87.2% houses and 12.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thomastown stands at 44.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.0% and rented dwellings at 29.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area is $1,700, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,900. Median weekly rent in Thomastown is $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $371. Nationally, Thomastown's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Thomastown has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.5% of all households, including 31.2% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 27.5%, with lone person households at 24.4% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Educational outcomes in Thomastown fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 20.4%, substantially lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 26.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (17.0%). Educational participation is high at 27.3%, comprising 7.8% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 5.1% in tertiary education.

Thomastown has a robust network of 8 schools educating approximately 2,203 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 985) and balanced educational opportunities. There are 7 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups, with school places per 100 residents at 10.4, below the regional average of 13.1. Some students may attend schools in adjacent areas due to this discrepancy.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thomastown has 115 operational public transport stops, offering a combination of train and bus services. These stops are served by ten unique routes, facilitating a total of 11,756 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Thomastown is deemed good, with residents on average situated 202 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 1,679 trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 102 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Thomastown are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Thomastown has below-average health outcomes, with common conditions more prevalent than average across both younger and older age groups. Only approximately 46% of Thomastown residents have private health cover, compared to 49.8% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 8.5%) and diabetes (7.1%), with 69.7% reporting no medical ailments, compared to 74.0% in Greater Melbourne.

Thomastown has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 22.1%, compared to 13.2% in Greater Melbourne.

Thomastown is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thomastown has one of the highest levels of cultural diversity in Australia, with 54.2% of its population born overseas and 68.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Thomastown, accounting for 50.3% of the population. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's average, comprising 16.2% of Thomastown's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (22.8%), Italian (12.3%), and Australian (10.2%), with Other being substantially higher than the regional average. Notably, Macedonian, Greek, and Vietnamese ethnicities are also overrepresented in Thomastown compared to regional averages: Macedonian at 8.4% vs 4.6%, Greek at 6.8% vs 4.1%, and Vietnamese at 6.1% vs 1.6%.

Thomastown's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Thomastown is 39 years, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and close to the national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Thomastown at 8.7%, while the 5-14 age group is under-represented at 9.8%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has increased from 7.9% to 8.7% of the population, while the 65-74 cohort has decreased from 11.3% to 10.1%. By 2041, Thomastown's population is forecasted to experience significant demographic changes. Notably, the 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 50%, adding 918 people and reaching a total of 2,758 from its current count of 1,839. The 0-4 age group is projected to grow at a more modest rate of 7%, with an increase of 76 residents.