Thomastown

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thomastown reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Thomastown's population was around 21,212 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 1,214 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,998. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,898 in June 2024 and an additional 360 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,444 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Thomastown's growth rate of 6.1% since the census positions it within 2.8 percentage points of the national average (8.9%). Overseas migration contributed approximately 85.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, Thomastown is forecasted to experience significant population increase, with an expected growth of 5,583 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 23.1% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thomastown according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thomastown averaged approximately 79 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY21 and FY25396 homes were approved, with an additional 28 approved in FY26 to date. Despite a declining population during this period, housing supply has been adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with diverse buyer options.

The average construction cost of new properties was $248,000, lower than the regional average, indicating more affordable housing choices for buyers. In FY26, commercial approvals totaled $44.8 million, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thomastown has significantly less development activity, 73.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New building activity comprises 44.0% detached dwellings and 56.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift towards compact living that appeals to downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This change is notable compared to the current housing mix of 84.0% houses, likely due to reduced development site availability and evolving lifestyle demands.

Thomastown has a low-density character with around 267 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, population forecasts indicate Thomastown will gain approximately 4,909 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Thomastown has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 28 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects are Thomastown Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), Edgars Creek Trail Extension, Thomas Green Townhomes, and New Epping Health Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Thomastown faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Thomastown has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 7.9%, showing an estimated employment growth of 1.3% over the past year.

There are 8,804 residents in work while the unemployment rate is 3.2% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation lags significantly at 49.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. Manufacturing shows particularly strong specialization with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services have limited presence with 5.1% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The ratio of 0.9 workers for each resident indicates substantial local employment opportunities. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.3% while labour force increased by 0.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thomastown's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates Thomastown SA2's median income among taxpayers is $45,243. The average income is $51,885. This is lower than the national average. Greater Melbourne has a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates suggest approximately $50,745 (median) and $58,194 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows household, family and personal incomes in Thomastown fall between the 3rd and 15th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile reveals the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 28.6% of residents (6,066 people), similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 15th percentile.

Thomastown is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Thomastown's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.3% houses and 15.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 84.2% houses and 15.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thomastown stood at 44.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.0% and rented ones at 29.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,700, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,900. Median weekly rent in Thomastown was recorded at $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $371. Nationally, Thomastown's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Thomastown has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.5% of all households, including 31.2% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.5%, with lone person households at 24.4% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Educational outcomes in Thomastown fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 20.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 26.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (17.0%). Educational participation is high at 27.3%, comprising primary education (7.8%), secondary education (6.7%), and tertiary education (5.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.8% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thomastown has 115 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 10 routes that facilitate 11,756 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 202 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency is high, averaging 1,679 trips per day across all routes, which translates to about 102 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Thomastown are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Thomastown shows below-average health outcomes, with common conditions more prevalent than average across all age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 46%, covering around 9,799 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 49.8% and the national average of 55.3%. Arthritis and diabetes are the most common conditions, affecting 8.5% and 7.1% of residents respectively.

About 69.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 74.0% in Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over, at 22.1%, or around 4,698 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 13.2%. This aligns with the general population's health profile.

Thomastown is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thomastown has one of the most culturally diverse populations in the country, with 54.2% of its residents born overseas and 68.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Thomastown, accounting for 50.3% of the population. However, Islam is notably overrepresented, comprising 16.2%, which is substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 9.1%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups in Thomastown are Other at 22.8%, Italian at 12.3%, and Australian at 10.2%. The latter is notably lower than the regional average of 17.3%. There are also notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Macedonian is overrepresented at 8.4% compared to the regional average of 4.6%, Greek at 6.8% (regional average 4.1%), and Vietnamese at 6.1% (regional average 1.6%).

Thomastown's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Thomastown is 39 years, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and very close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thomastown has a notably higher percentage of individuals aged 75-84 (8.7% locally vs. an average), while those aged 5-14 are under-represented (9.8%). Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group grew from 7.9% to 8.7%, while the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 11.3% to 10.1%. Population forecasts for Thomastown in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes, with the 75 to 84 group expected to grow by 50% (adding 918 people), reaching a total of 2,758 from 1,839. The 0 to 4 age group is projected to grow modestly at 7%, adding only 76 residents.