Thomastown

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thomastown reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population updates for Thomastown, the suburb's population is estimated at around 21,265 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,031 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 20,234. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 20,953 following examination of ABS' latest Education Region Population (ERP) data release in Jun 2024 and an additional 362 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,459 persons per square kilometer, which is above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 85% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, significant population growth is forecast for Thomastown, with an expected increase of 5,661 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 23.8% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thomastown according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thomastown has received around 78 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 391 homes. By June 2026, 25 approvals had been recorded. Thomastown's population has declined, but housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with diverse buyer options. The average expected construction cost of new dwellings is $382,000, below the regional average.

In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $44.8 million, indicating strong local business investment. New development consists of 44% detached houses and 56% medium to high-density housing, a shift from the area's existing 84% houses, suggesting decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles. Thomastown has a low density, with around 263 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate an increase of 5,057 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Thomastown has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes to its local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 27 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are the Thomastown Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), Edgars Creek Trail Extension, 44-46 Derrick Street Townhouses, and Thomastown and Lalor Place Framework. The following list details those projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Thomastown lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Thomastown has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.4% as of the past year.

Employment growth was estimated at 3.9%. As of June 2025, Thomastown had 8,876 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.8%, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Thomastown was 49.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among Thomastown residents are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction.

Manufacturing employment levels were particularly notable, at 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 5.1% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.9, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. In the year ending June 2025, employment increased by 3.9% while labour force grew by 1.4%, leading to a drop in unemployment rate by 2.3 percentage points. For comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, and an increase in unemployment by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thomastown's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022 shows Thomastown had a median income among taxpayers of $45,194 and an average level of $51,831. These figures are below the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 for Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from financial year ending June 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $50,690 and average income is $58,134 as of the latter date. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Thomastown fall between the 4th and 15th percentiles nationally. Income distribution data indicates that 28.8% of Thomastown's population (6,124 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this income bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Thomastown, with only 83.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 15th percentile nationally.

Thomastown is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Thomastown's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.4% houses and 15.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had no houses or other dwellings recorded at that time. Home ownership in Thomastown stood at 44.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.1% and rented ones at 29.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,690, matching Melbourne metro's average. The median weekly rent was $350, while Melbourne metro had no recorded figures for rents. Nationally, Thomastown's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and its rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Thomastown has a typical household mix, with a median household size of 2.6 people

Family households comprise 72.6% of all households, including 31.3% couples with children, 24.8% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 27.4%, with lone person households at 24.3% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people.

Educational outcomes in Thomastown fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate in 20.4% was significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials were prevalent, with 26.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (17.0%). Educational participation was high at 27.3%, including 7.8% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Thomastown had a network of 8 schools educating approximately 2,203 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 985) and balanced educational opportunities. The area's 7 primary and 1 secondary schools served distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thomastown has 115 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus stations. They are serviced by 10 routes in total.

Collectively, these routes provide 11,756 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent. Residents typically live 198 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 1,679 trips per day across all routes. This equates to approximately 102 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Thomastown are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Thomastown's health indicators show below-average outcomes, with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average among both younger and older age groups. The area has a private health cover rate of approximately 47% (~10,081 people), lower than the national average of 55.3%.

Arthritis and diabetes are the most common medical conditions in Thomastown, affecting 8.5 and 7.1% of residents respectively. A total of 69.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 0% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 22.2% of residents aged 65 and over (4,720 people), broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

Thomastown is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thomastown has one of the most culturally diverse populations in Australia, with 54.2% born overseas and 69.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Thomastown, accounting for 50.2% of its population. Islam is significantly overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 16.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (22.8%), Italian (12.3%), and Australian (10.1%). Notably, Macedonian (8.3%) Greek (6.8%), and Vietnamese (6.1%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Thomastown's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Thomastown is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and close to the national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thomastown has a notable over-representation of the 75-84 age group (8.7% locally) and an under-representation of 5-14 year-olds (9.8%). According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group grew from 7.9% to 8.7%, while the 65-74 cohort declined from 11.2% to 10.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Thomastown. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 50% (adding 925 people), reaching 2,776 from 1,850. Meanwhile, the 0-4 age group will experience more modest growth of 8%, adding only 94 residents.