Thomastown

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thomastown reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, Thomastown's population is estimated at around 21,268. This reflects an increase of 1,034 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 20,234. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 20,637 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 359 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,459 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and for areas not covered, utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, Thomastown is forecasted to grow significantly, with an expected increase of 5,663 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 23.7% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thomastown according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Thomastown has received approximately 78 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years to June 2021, totalling around 394 homes. By May 2026, 38 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline in the area, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with varied buyer choices. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost of $382,000.

This financial year, commercial approvals valued at $43.0 million have been registered, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Building activity shows 43.0% standalone homes and 57.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses at 84.0%. The location has approximately 258 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Thomastown's population is forecasted to increase by 5,032 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially leading to increased buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Thomastown has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 27 projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include Thomastown Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), New Epping, Edgars Creek Trail Extension, and 44-46 Derrick Street Townhouses. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Thomastown face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Thomastown has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate is 8.9%, showing stability over the past year according to AreaSearch data aggregation. There are 8,807 residents employed while Thomastown's unemployment rate is 4.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Thomastown lags at 54.9% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, 16.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. Manufacturing is notably concentrated with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.1%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.9, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and 2025, employment levels increased by 0.4% while labour force grew by 1.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with a smaller unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thomastown's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not consider localized population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Thomastown had a median income among taxpayers of $45,195. The average income stood at $51,832. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $48,924 (median) and $56,108 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Thomastown all fall between the 4th and 15th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows 28.8% of the population (6,125 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 15th percentile.

Thomastown is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Thomastown's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.4% houses and 15.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thomastown stood at 44.2%, with the remaining dwellings being mortgaged (26.1%) or rented (29.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,690, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Thomastown was $350, less than Melbourne metro's $390 and the national figure of $375.

Thomastown has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 72.6% of all households, including 31.3% couples with children, 24.8% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 27.4%, with lone person households at 24.3% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational outcomes in Thomastown fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 20.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 26.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (17.0%). Educational participation is high at 27.3%, including 7.8% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.8% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 117 active public transport stops in Thomastown, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 14 different routes, collectively facilitating 8,435 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 198 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward. The dominant mode of transport is car at 83%, while train use stands at 11%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, some 16.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 1,205 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 72 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Thomastown's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Thomastown's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low, at approximately 47% of the total population (~10,083 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and diabetes are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 8.5 and 7.1% of residents respectively. However, 69.7% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. Thomastown has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 22.9%, with 4,870 people in this age group, compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. National rankings for the area are broadly in line with the general population.

Thomastown is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thomastown's population is among the most culturally diverse in the country, with 54.2% born overseas and 69.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 50.2%. However, Islam is overrepresented, making up 16.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (22.8%), Italian (12.3%), and Australian (10.1%). Notably, Macedonian (8.3%) and Greek (6.8%) groups are overrepresented in Thomastown compared to regional averages of 0.7% and 2.7%, respectively. Additionally, Vietnamese representation is higher at 6.1% versus the region's average of 1.9%.

Thomastown's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Thomastown is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thomastown has a notably higher proportion of people aged 75-84 (9.1% locally) and a lower proportion of those aged 35-44 (13.4%). According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has grown from 7.9% to 9.1% of Thomastown's population, while the 65-74 cohort has declined from 11.2% to 10.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Thomastown. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 38%, adding 874 people and reaching a total of 3,171 from the current 2,296. The 0-4 age group is expected to grow at a more modest rate of 8%, with an increase of 95 residents.