Thomastown

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thomastown reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, Thomastown's population is estimated at around 21,268, reflecting an increase of 1,034 people since the 2021 Census. The 2021 Census reported a population of 20,234 in the suburb. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 20,637 following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, and an additional 359 validated new addresses since the Census date. Thomastown's population density as of February 2026 is estimated at 1,459 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 85% of overall population gains during recent periods in the suburb.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, Thomastown is forecasted to experience significant population growth, with an expected increase of 5,666 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 23.8% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thomastown according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thomastown has received approximately 78 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 394 homes. As of April 2026, 36 dwellings have been approved this financial year. The average construction cost value for new dwellings is $382,000.

Thomastown has also seen $43.0 million in commercial approvals registered by April 2026. New building activity consists of 43.0% standalone homes and 57.0% townhouses or apartments. The current housing mix is 84.0% houses. Population forecasts indicate Thomastown will gain approximately 5,054 residents by 2041.

At the current development rate of around 258 people per dwelling approval, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth.

Thomastown has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 27 projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include Thomastown Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), New Epping, Edgars Creek Trail Extension, and 44-46 Derrick Street Townhouses. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Thomastown faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Thomastown has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.9% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.2% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of that date, 8,818 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 3.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation in Thomastown lagged behind Greater Melbourne at 54.7% compared to 71.0%. According to Census responses, 16.1% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction, with manufacturing notably concentrated at 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 5.1% compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

The ratio of workers to residents was 0.9 as of the Census, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.2%, labour force grew by 0.2%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment by 0.9 percentage points, according to AreaSearch's analysis of SALM and ABS data. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% over the same period, with labour force growth of 3.3% and an increase in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thomastown's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Thomastown had a median taxpayer income of $45,195 and an average income of $51,832. Both figures are below the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively for Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% from June 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income in Thomastown is approximately $48,924, while average income is estimated at $56,108 by the same period. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data from 2021, incomes in Thomastown fall between the 4th and 15th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution shows that 28.8% of Thomastown's population (6,125 individuals) earn within the $1,500 to $2,999 range, similar to regional levels where 32.8% fall into this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Thomastown, with only 83.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 15th percentile nationally.

Thomastown is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Thomastown's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.4% houses and 15.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thomastown was at 44.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.1% and rented ones at 29.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,690, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Thomastown's median monthly mortgage repayments were lower at $1,690 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also less at $350 compared to the national figure of $375.

Thomastown has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 72.6% of all households, including 31.3% couples with children, 24.8% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 27.4%, with lone person households at 24.3% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational outcomes in Thomastown fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 20.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 26.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (17.0%). Educational participation is high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 7.8% in primary, 6.7% in secondary, and 5.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.8% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Thomastown indicates 117 active transport stops operating within the area, consisting solely of bus services. These stops are served by 14 individual routes, collectively facilitating 8,435 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 198 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential region, most residents commute outward. The dominant mode of transport remains car usage at 83%, while train use accounts for 11%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, some 16.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 1,205 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 72 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Thomastown's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Thomastown's health metrics are close to national benchmarks. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~10,083 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and diabetes, impacting 8.5% and 7.1% of residents respectively. 69.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population has better than average health outcomes. Thomastown has 22.6% of residents aged 65 and over (4,806 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. National rankings are broadly in line with the general population.

Thomastown is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thomastown's population is culturally diverse, with 54.2% born overseas and 69.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 50.2%. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 16.2% in Thomastown versus 5.6% regionally.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (22.8%), Italian (12.3%), and Australian (10.1%). Notably, Macedonian (8.3%) and Greek (6.8%) are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.7% and 2.7%, respectively. Vietnamese is also significantly represented at 6.1%.

Thomastown's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Thomastown is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thomastown has a notably higher proportion of people aged 75-84 (9.0% locally) but fewer people aged 35-44 (13.4%). According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has grown from 7.9% to 9.0%, while the 65-74 cohort has declined from 11.2% to 10.2%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Thomastown. The 45-54 age group is expected to grow by 39%, adding 889 people and reaching a total of 3,165 from the current 2,275. The 0-4 age group will experience more modest growth of 8%, with an increase of 94 residents.