Thomastown

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thomastown reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, Thomastown's population is estimated at around 20,727, reflecting an increase of 493 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a growth rate of 2.4%. The resident population estimate of 20,720 was derived from AreaSearch's analysis of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025, along with an additional 371 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,422 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch has adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, making adjustments using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Looking ahead, Thomastown is forecasted to experience significant population growth, with an increase of 5,680 persons expected by the year 2041. This projection reflects a total increase of 27.4% over the 16-year period, placing the suburb in the top quartile of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thomastown according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thomastown has seen approximately 78 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totaling an estimated 394 homes. In FY26 so far, 49 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline has maintained adequate housing supply relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with varied buyer choices. New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $382,000.

This year, $43.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating high local commercial activity. Building activity comprises 43.0% standalone homes and 57.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living to accommodate affordability requirements and lifestyle changes from the current housing mix of 84.0% houses. Thomastown has around 257 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts estimate an increase of 5,673 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Thomastown has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects that could affect this region. Notable initiatives include the Thomastown Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), Edgars Creek Trail Extension, 44-46 Derrick Street Townhouses, and Thomastown and Lalor Place Framework. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Thomastown face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Thomastown has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 8.9% as of December 2025. Employment stability over the past year was relative.

There were 8,836 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 4.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 54.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. Moderate home work rates were observed, with 16.1% of residents working from home. Key industries included health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction.

Manufacturing employment was notably high, at 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services had lower representation at 5.1%. There was a substantial local employment opportunity ratio of 0.9 workers per resident. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.4% while labour force grew by 1.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded higher employment growth at 2.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand in Thomastown. National employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industries. Applying these projections to Thomastown's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Thomastown had a median income among taxpayers of $45,195. The average income stood at $51,832. This is below the national average which was $57,688 in Greater Melbourne during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from financial year ended June 2023 to March 2026, current estimates for Thomastown would be approximately $49,543 (median) and $56,818 (average). According to the 2021 Census figures, household incomes in Thomastown fall between the 4th and 15th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows that 28.8% of Thomastown's population (5,969 individuals) have income within the $1,500 - 2,999 range, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Thomastown, with only 83.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 15th percentile nationally.

Thomastown is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Thomastown's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.4% houses and 15.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thomastown stood at 44.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.1% and rented ones at 29.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,690, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Thomastown was $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Thomastown's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Thomastown has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 72.6% of all households, including 31.3% couples with children, 24.8% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 27.4%, with lone person households at 24.3% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational outcomes in Thomastown fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 20.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 26.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (17.0%). Educational participation is high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 7.8% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 117 active transport stops in Thomastown, consisting of buses. These stops are served by 14 individual routes, facilitating 8,435 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 198 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to the area's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode at 83%, while trains account for 11%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 16.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 1,205 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 72 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Thomastown's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Thomastown's health metrics are close to national benchmarks. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low, at approximately 47% of the total population (~9,826 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (impacting 8.5%) and diabetes (7.1%), with 69.7% of residents declaring themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population has better health outcomes than average. Thomastown has 22.5% of residents aged 65 and over (4,663 people), higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Thomastown is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thomastown has one of the highest levels of cultural diversity in Australia, with 54.2% of its population born overseas and 69.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Thomastown, comprising 50.2% of the population. However, Islam is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's average, making up 16.2% of Thomastown's population.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups are Other (22.8%), Italian (12.3%), and Australian (10.1%). Notably, Macedonian (8.3%) is significantly overrepresented compared to regional averages (0.7%), as are Greek (6.8%) and Vietnamese (6.1%).

Thomastown's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Thomastown is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thomastown has a notably over-represented cohort of 75-84 year-olds (8.9% locally), while those aged 5-14 are under-represented (9.5%). Post-2021 Census data shows the 75-84 age group grew from 7.9% to 8.9%, and the 65-74 cohort declined from 11.2% to 10.0%. By 2041, demographic forecasts indicate significant changes in Thomastown's population structure, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 42%, reaching 3,124 people from its current total of 2,197.