Thomastown

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thomastown reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Thomastown statistical area (Lv2) is around 21,269 people. This reflects an increase of 1,035 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 20,234 people in the area. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 20,637 following examination of the ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 362 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,459 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The primary driver for this population growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 85% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, the Thomastown (SA2) is forecasted to experience significant population growth in the top quartile of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. By the year 2041, the area's population is expected to increase by 5,660 persons, reflecting a total increase of 23.8% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thomastown according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Thomastown has received around 78 dwelling approvals per year on average over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 394 homes. As of FY-26, 36 approvals have been recorded. The area has experienced population decline, but housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $382,000. This financial year has seen $43.0 million in commercial approvals, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Building activity shows 43.0% standalone homes and 57.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is currently 84.0% houses, due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands.

Thomastown has approximately 258 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. Population forecasts suggest Thomastown will gain 5,052 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Thomastown has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 27 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Thomastown Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), New Epping, Edgars Creek Trail Extension, and 44-46 Derrick Street Townhouses. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Thomastown faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Thomastown has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.9% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.2% over the past year.

This is based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of that date, 8,819 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 3.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Thomastown lagged at 49.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction.

Manufacturing showed notable concentration with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services had lower representation at 5.1% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The ratio of workers to residents was 0.9, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and 2025, employment levels increased by 1.2%, while labour force grew by 0.2%, resulting in a 0.9 percentage point decrease in unemployment. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% with a 0.3 percentage point increase in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 showed Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thomastown's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Thomastown had a median income among taxpayers of $45,195 with average income standing at $51,832. Both figures are below the national averages of $67,887 and $93,900 respectively. By September 2025, estimated median and average incomes in Thomastown would be approximately $48,924 and $56,108 respectively, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data from 2021, household, family and personal incomes in Thomastown fall between the 4th and 15th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 28.8% of Thomastown's population (6,125 individuals) have incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, similar to regional patterns where 32.8% fall within this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Thomastown, with only 83.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 15th percentile nationally.

Thomastown is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with strong rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Thomastown, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, comprised 84.4% houses and 15.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). The level of home ownership within Thomastown was 44.2%, with 26.1% of dwellings mortgaged and 29.7% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,690, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $350. Nationally, Thomastown's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, as reported by the ABS on 27 June 2021, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Thomastown has a typical household mix, with a median household size of 2.6 people

Family households constitute 72.6% of all households, including 31.3% couples with children, 24.8% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 27.4%, with lone person households at 24.3% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people.

Educational outcomes in Thomastown fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate was 20.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials were held by 26.1% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 17.0%. Educational participation was high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This included 7.8% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thomastown has 117 active public transport stops. These include a mix of train and bus services. There are 14 individual routes operating in total.

Collectively, they provide 8,435 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent accessibility to transport, with an average distance of 198 meters to the nearest stop. Service frequency is high, with an average of 1,205 trips per day across all routes. This equates to approximately 72 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Thomastown are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Thomastown shows below-average health outcomes, with common conditions slightly more prevalent than average among both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~10,083 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (8.5%) and diabetes (7.1%), while 69.7% report no medical ailments. This is lower than Greater Melbourne's 0%. Thomastown has 22.2% residents aged 65 and over (4,721 people), broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

Thomastown is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thomastown has a culturally diverse population, with 54.2% born overseas and 69.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Thomastown, making up 50.2% of its population. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 16.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (22.8%), Italian (12.3%), and Australian (10.1%). Notably, Macedonian (8.3%) and Greek (6.8%) are overrepresented in Thomastown compared to the region. Vietnamese is also present at 6.1%.

Thomastown's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Thomastown is 39 years, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thomastown has a notably higher proportion of people aged 75-84 (8.7% locally), while those aged 5-14 are under-represented (9.8%). According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 7.9% to 8.7%, while the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 11.2% to 10.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Thomastown. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 50% (adding 925 people), reaching a total of 2,776 from the current figure of 1,850. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 age group is expected to grow modestly at 8%, adding only 94 residents.