Kinglake

Kinglake lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Kinglake's population is around 4,404 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase of 200 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,204 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,399 from the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 17 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 13.8 persons per square kilometer. Kinglake's growth of 4.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth of 2.8%. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth, contributing approximately 56.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Kinglake is forecasted to grow significantly, with an expected increase of 1,276 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 28.9% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kinglake according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kinglake has recorded approximately 15 residential properties granted approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, 79 homes were approved, with an additional one approved so far in FY-26. On average, for every home built over these five financial years, 3.1 new residents were added.

This significant demand exceeds the supply of new properties, which typically results in price growth and increased buyer competition. New properties are constructed at an average value of $318,000. In FY-26, there have been $18.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Kinglake shows 55.0% higher development activity per person.

Recent development has consisted entirely of standalone homes, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population count is 607 people per dwelling approval. Looking ahead, Kinglake is expected to grow by 1,271 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Kinglake has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 35thth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are expected to impact this area. Notable projects include Inland Rail Beveridge to Albury, North East Link - Connections, North East Link - Tolling Services Package, and North East Link - Early Works, with the following list outlining those most relevant.

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Employment performance in Kinglake has been broadly consistent with national averages

Kinglake has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.6% as of September 2025. This rate is 1.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation in Kinglake matches Greater Melbourne's figure of 71.0%. According to Census data, 22.6% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employment is particularly high at 2.1 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical jobs are lower at 5.1%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. There appears to be limited local employment opportunities, as shown by the ratio of working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 0.2% while labour force remained unchanged, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Kinglake's employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Kinglake SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $54,436 with an average income standing at $67,703. This is approximately average nationally and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $58,927 (median) and $73,288 (average) as of September 2025. From the Census conducted in August 2021, household incomes rank modestly in Kinglake, between the 45th and 53rd percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 37.3% of the population, equating to 1,642 individuals, fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. After housing expenses, 85.8% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Kinglake is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kinglake's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 99.6% houses and 0.4% other dwellings, compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kinglake stood at 37.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 57.5% and rented ones at 5.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,811, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000 and the national average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Kinglake was $306, below Melbourne metro's $390 and the national figure of $375.

Kinglake features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households compose 78.0% of all households, including 36.2% couples with children, 32.1% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.0%, with lone person households at 19.3% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Kinglake exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The region has lower university qualification rates at 18.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (3.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 48.8% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 14.5% and certificates at 34.3%. Educational participation is high, with 31.2% currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.5% in primary, 9.3% in secondary, and 2.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kinglake has 25 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by two routes that together offer 152 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents on average located 1803 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Kinglake's primarily residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 94%. On average, there are 2.2 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 22.6% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 21 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kinglake's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Kinglake's health data shows positive outcomes, aligning with national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions. Common health issues affect both young and elderly residents similarly.

Private health cover stands at 53% (2,316 people), slightly above Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. Mental health issues and asthma are most prevalent, affecting 9.7% and 8.4% respectively, with 68.4% reporting no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have a higher chronic health condition prevalence. The area has 18.2% (802 people) aged 65 and over, higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Senior health outcomes are above average, matching national rankings.

Kinglake is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Kinglake's population showed low cultural diversity, with 87.9% being Australian citizens, 89.1% born in Australia, and 95.3% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, comprising 34.8%. Notably, the 'Other' category constituted 1.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 2.3%.

In ancestry, English (30.8%) and Australian (30.5%) groups were significantly higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4% respectively. Irish ancestry was at 8.9%. Some ethnicities showed notable differences: Hungarian was 0.5% in Kinglake vs 0.3% regionally, Dutch at 2.0% vs 1.2%, and Macedonian at 0.5% vs 0.7%.

Kinglake's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Kinglake is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national median age of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 15.8% of Kinglake's population, compared to a lower percentage in Greater Melbourne. Conversely, the 25-34 age group makes up 9.3% of Kinglake's population, which is less prevalent than in Greater Melbourne. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group grew from 3.3% to 5.8% of the population, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 10.2% to 11.6%. Meanwhile, the 45 to 54 age group declined from 17.2% to 14.6%, and the 25 to 34 age group decreased from 10.6% to 9.3%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Kinglake, with the 75 to 84 age group projected to grow by 106%, reaching a total of 526 people from its current figure of 255.