Kinglake

Kinglake lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Kinglake's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 4,419 people. This figure represents a growth of 215 individuals, marking a 5.1% increase since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 4,204. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,419 in June 2025 and an additional 17 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 13.8 persons per square kilometer. Kinglake's growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area (1.8%), positioning it as a leader in regional growth. Natural growth contributed approximately 72.9% to overall population gains, with other factors such as interstate and overseas migration also being positive contributors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, it employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Kinglake is forecasted to grow by an additional 1,245 persons, reflecting a total gain of 28.2% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kinglake according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kinglake has seen approximately 15 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 79 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved so far in FY26. On average, about 3.1 people have moved to the area each year for every dwelling built during these five years.

This high demand outpaces supply, which typically drives up prices and intensifies competition among buyers. The average construction cost of new properties is around $318,000. In terms of commercial development, Kinglake has recorded approximately $18.1 million in approvals this financial year, indicating moderate levels of activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Kinglake has 53.0% more building activity per capita, offering buyers greater choice despite a recent slowdown in overall building activity.

All recent building activity consists of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character and appealing to those seeking space. With an estimated population of around 607 people for every dwelling approval, Kinglake's development environment is quiet and low-key. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is forecasted to gain approximately 1,245 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Kinglake has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 33rdth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes are anticipated in the area as AreaSearch has identified zero relevant projects. Key initiatives include Inland Rail from Beveridge to Albury, North East Link's Tolling Services Package and Early Works, and Regional Housing Fund Projects.

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The employment landscape in Kinglake shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Kinglake has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 4.0% in the past year. Employment growth was estimated at 0.6%.

As of December 2025, 2,501 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.7%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.8%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. Home-based work was moderate at 22.6% in Census responses, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level. Professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.1%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on resident population vs working population count. Between December 2024 and 2025, employment increased by 0.6% while labour force rose by 1.1%, leading to a unemployment increase of 0.5 percentage points. Greater Melbourne saw higher growth rates in these areas during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kinglake's industry mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in Kinglake SA2 was $54,436. Average income stood at $67,703. In Greater Melbourne, median income was $57,688 and average income was $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from July 2023 to March 2026, estimated median income in Kinglake is approximately $59,673 and average income is around $74,216. Census data from 2021 shows household, family and personal incomes in Kinglake rank modestly between the 45th and 53rd percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 37.3% of individuals earn between $1,500 - $2,999 annually, similar to metropolitan regions where this cohort represents 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.8% of income remains for other expenses. Kinglake's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Kinglake is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kinglake's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.6% houses and 0.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kinglake stood at 37.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 57.5% and rented ones at 5.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,811, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Kinglake was $306, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Kinglake's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kinglake features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households compose 78.0% of all households, including 36.2% couples with children, 32.1% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.0%, with lone person households at 19.3% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Kinglake exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (3.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 48.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (14.5%) and certificates (34.3%). Educational participation is high, with 31.2% currently enrolled in formal education: 11.5% in primary, 9.3% in secondary, and 2.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kinglake has 25 active public transport stops, serving a mix of bus routes. These are operated by two routes, offering 152 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport access is limited, with residents located an average of 1803 meters from the nearest stop. Most commuting is outward-bound due to Kinglake's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant transport mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.2 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 22.6% of residents work from home, possibly influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 21 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 6 weekly trips per stop.

Kinglake's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Kinglake's health data shows positive outcomes, aligning with national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions. Common health issues are seen across all age groups, with private health cover at 53%, slightly higher than the SA2 average but lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%.

The most prevalent conditions are mental health issues (9.7%) and asthma (8.5%), while 68.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 17.7%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, ranking inline with the general population nationally.

Kinglake is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Kinglake's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.9% of its population being citizens born in Australia speaking English only at home (89.1%, 95.3% respectively). Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 34.8% of Kinglake's population. The 'Other' religious category was overrepresented at 1.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, English (30.8%) and Australian (30.5%) were the most represented groups in Kinglake, both substantially higher than regional averages (20.1% and 18.4% respectively). Irish ancestry was also notable at 8.9%. There were overrepresentations of Hungarian (0.5%), Dutch (2.0%), and Macedonian (0.5%) ethnic groups compared to regional averages.

Kinglake's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Kinglake is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age group of 55-64 years is strongly represented at 16.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 9.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 3.3% to 5.5% of the population, and the 65 to 74 cohort has increased from 10.2% to 11.4%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 17.2% to 14.7%, and the 25 to 34 group has dropped from 10.6% to 9.5%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Kinglake, with the 75 to 84 age group expected to grow by 106% (adding 255 people), reaching a total of 497 from its previous figure of 241.