Kinglake

Kinglake lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Kinglake's population was approximately 4,404 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 200 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,204. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,399 in June 2024 and an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 13.8 persons per square kilometer. Kinglake's growth rate of 4.8% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area at 2.8%, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 56.9% to overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including interstate migration and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch's projections for Kinglake are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Kinglake is expected to experience significant population growth, with an increase of 1,276 persons forecasted by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 28.9% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kinglake according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kinglake has granted around 15 residential property approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 79 homes were approved, with one more approved so far in FY26. On average, each home built over these five years brought in 3.1 new residents per year.

This high demand outpaces supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. New properties are constructed at an average cost of $318,000. In the current financial year, there have been $18.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Kinglake shows 55.0% higher development activity per person.

Despite this, building activity has slowed recently. All recent developments have been standalone homes, maintaining the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. There are estimated to be 607 people in the area for every dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment. By 2041, Kinglake is expected to grow by 1,271 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Kinglake has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 35thth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include Inland Rail from Beveridge to Albury, North East Link - Connections, North East Link - Tolling Services Package, and North East Link - Early Works. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Kinglake has been broadly consistent with national averages

Kinglake's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent with an unemployment rate of 3.6%. Over the past year, employment has remained stable.

As of September 2025, 2,489 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation matches Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. About 22.6% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Construction employment is particularly high at 2.1 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical jobs are lower at 5.1%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparison. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 0.2% while labour force remained unchanged, reducing unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. According to Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25, total employment is projected to increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kinglake's current employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.1% in five years and 12.7% in ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Kinglake SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $54,436 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $67,703 during the same period. Nationally, the median income was approximately $54,436 and the average was around $67,703. In Greater Melbourne, these figures were $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. As of September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $58,927 (median) and $73,288 (average), based on an 8.25% growth since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Kinglake ranked modestly, between the 45th and 53rd percentiles. Income analysis showed that 37.3% of the population (1,642 individuals) fell within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to the regional average of 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.8% of income remained for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Kinglake is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kinglake's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.6% houses and 0.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kinglake stood at 37.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 57.5% and rented ones at 5.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,811, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000, while the median weekly rent was $306, below Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Kinglake's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kinglake features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.0% of all households, including 36.2% couples with children, 32.1% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.0%, with lone person households at 19.3% and group households making up 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Kinglake exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (3.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 48.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (14.5%) and certificates (34.3%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kinglake has 25 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by two routes that together facilitate 152 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically living 1803 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards, with cars being the dominant mode of transport at 94%. On average, there are 2.2 vehicles per dwelling, which is above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 22.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 21 trips per day, equating to approximately six weekly trips per stop.

Kinglake's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Kinglake's health data shows positive outcomes relative to other areas. Mortality rates and health conditions align with national benchmarks.

Common health conditions are standard across age groups. Private health cover is at 53% (~2,316 people), slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (9.7%) and asthma (8.5%). 68.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions. Residents aged 65 and over make up 17.3% (761 people) of the population, higher than Greater Melbourne's 14.9%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, matching national rankings for the general population.

Kinglake is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Kinglake's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.9% of its population being citizens born in Australia speaking English only at home, which is 89.1% and 95.3%, respectively. The predominant religion in Kinglake was Christianity, comprising 34.8% of the population. Notably, the 'Other' religious group made up 1.4% of Kinglake's population, compared to 2.3% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (30.8%), Australian (30.5%), and Irish (8.9%), all substantially higher than their respective regional averages of 20.1%, 18.4%, and not specified. Additionally, Hungarian (0.5%) and Dutch (2.0%) groups were overrepresented in Kinglake compared to the region's 0.3% and 1.2% respectively, while Macedonian was slightly underrepresented at 0.5%.

Kinglake's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Kinglake is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national median of 38 years. The age group of 55-64 years has a strong representation at 15.8% compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 9.7%. According to post-2021 Census data, the population aged 75 to 84 years has grown from 3.3% to 5.3%, whereas the age group of 45 to 54 years has declined from 17.2% to 15.0%. By 2041, Kinglake's demographic forecasts indicate substantial changes, with the 75 to 84 age group expected to grow by 124%, reaching 526 people from 235. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 51% of total population growth, reflecting Kinglake's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 age cohort is projected to grow by just 8%, adding only 20 people.