Kinglake

Kinglake lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Kinglake's population is around 4,404 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 200 people (4.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,204 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,399 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 17 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 13.8 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Kinglake's 4.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (2.8%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 56.9% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including interstate migration and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 1,276 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 28.9% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kinglake according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kinglake has recorded around 15 residential properties granted approval annually, with 79 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 1 so far in FY-26. At an average of 3.1 new residents per year for every home built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand significantly exceeds new supply, which usually results in price growth and increased buyer competition, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $318,000. There have also been $18.1 million in commercial approvals this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

Relative to Greater Melbourne, Kinglake shows 55.0% higher development activity (per person), which should provide buyers with ample choice, though building activity has slowed in recent years. Meanwhile, recent development has been entirely comprised of standalone homes, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 607 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Kinglake is expected to grow by 1,271 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Kinglake has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 35thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 0 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Inland Rail Beveridge to Albury, North East Link - Connections, North East Link - Tolling Services Package, and North East Link - Early Works, with the below list detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Kinglake has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Kinglake features a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of 4.0%, and 0.6% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 2,501 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.7% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is on par with Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a moderate 22.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.1% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.6% while the labour force increased by 1.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. This compares to Greater Melbourne, where employment grew by 2.4%, the labour force expanded by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Kinglake. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kinglake's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Kinglake SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $54,436 with the average level standing at $67,703. This is approximately average nationally and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $58,927 (median) and $73,288 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Kinglake, between the 45th and 53rd percentiles. Income analysis reveals 37.3% of the population (1,642 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. After housing, 85.8% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Kinglake is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Kinglake, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 99.6% houses and 0.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Kinglake was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 37.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (57.5%) or rented (5.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Melbourne metro average at $1,811, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $306, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Kinglake's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kinglake features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 78.0% of all households, comprising 36.2% couples with children, 32.1% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.0%, with lone person households at 19.3% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.7 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Kinglake exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (18.3%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (3.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 48.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (14.5%) and certificates (34.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 25 active transport stops operating within Kinglake comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 2 individual routes, collectively providing 152 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 1803 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - the car remains the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.2 per dwelling, above the regional average. Some 22.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 21 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kinglake's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for Kinglake residents. AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions shows results broadly in line with national benchmarks, with a standard level of common health conditions across both young and old age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is slightly higher than the average SA2 area at approximately 53% of the total population (~2,316 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.7% and 8.5% of residents, respectively. Meanwhile, 68.4% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 18.2% of residents aged 65 and over (802 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Kinglake is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Kinglake was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 87.9% of its population being citizens, 89.1% born in Australia, and 95.3% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Kinglake is Christianity, which makes up 34.8% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 1.4% of the population, compared to 2.3% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Kinglake are English, comprising 30.8% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 30.5% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Irish, comprising 8.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Hungarian is notably overrepresented at 0.5% of Kinglake (vs 0.3% regionally), Dutch at 2.0% (vs 1.2%) and Macedonian at 0.5% (vs 0.7%).

Kinglake's median age exceeds the national pattern

The 42-year median age in Kinglake is significantly above Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and similarly considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The 55 - 64 age group shows strong representation at 15.8% compared to Greater Melbourne, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 9.3%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 3.3% to 5.8% of the population, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 10.2% to 11.6%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 17.2% to 14.6% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 10.6% to 9.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Kinglake. Leading the demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group will grow by 106% (270 people), reaching 526 from 255.