Spence (ACT)

Spence has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Spence's population is estimated at around 2,521 as of Nov 2025. This reflects a decrease of 66 people (2.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,587 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,521, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 2 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,658 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 59.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections, with 2022 as a base, are adopted. Looking at population projections moving forward, over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the Spence (ACT) statistical area (Lv2)'s population expected to decline by 280 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to increase by 25 people.

The level of residential development activity in Spence is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Spence shows an average of approximately two new dwelling approvals annually. Between financial years 2021 and 2025, around eleven homes were approved, with no approvals recorded so far in the year 2026.

The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely been meeting demand, providing good options for buyers. The average construction value of new properties is $209,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing choices. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Spence has significantly lower construction activity, with 85.0% fewer approvals per person, suggesting stronger demand and values for established homes. This limited supply is also below the national average, reflecting the area's established nature and potential planning constraints. New development consists of equal parts standalone homes and medium to high-density housing, offering more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift from the current 92.0% houses reflects reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands and affordability needs. With around 1265 people per dwelling approval, Spence indicates a highly mature market.

Given stable or declining population projections, housing demand pressures in Spence are expected to remain low, benefiting potential buyers.

Spence has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified one major project likely affecting this region: Ginninderry Stage 3 - The Valley Release, Gold Creek Country Club Build-to-Rent (Gold Creek Golf Club Redevelopment), New Northside Hospital, and New Northside Hospital (North Canberra Hospital Redevelopment).

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The employment landscape in Spence shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Spence has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.8% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 2.2% over the past year.

This is based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, 1,319 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.3% higher than the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.6%. Workforce participation was lower at 65.8%, compared to the ACT's 69.6%. The dominant employment sectors among residents included public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Notably, construction had an employment share 1.6 times higher than the regional level. Conversely, public administration & safety had a lower representation at 25.6% compared to the regional average of 30.4%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.2%, while labour force increased by 0.7%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate of 1.4 percentage points. In comparison, Australian Capital Territory saw employment grow by 1.4%, labour force expand by 1.2%, and unemployment fall by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from November 25 shows ACT employment grew by 1.19% year-on-year, adding 710 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Spence's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Spence suburb's income level is above average nationally, per latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Spence's median income among taxpayers is $66,021 and average income stands at $74,628, compared to ACT's figures of $72,206 and $85,981 respectively. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $72,135 (median) and $81,539 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.26% since financial year 2023. According to 2021 Census figures, Spence's household, family, and personal incomes rank highly nationally, between the 86th and 87th percentiles. Income distribution shows 32.6% (821 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, consistent with surrounding region's 34.3%. Notably, 36.0% earn above $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and SEIFA income ranking in the 7th decile.

Spence is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Spence, as per the latest Census evaluation, 92.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 7.5% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is in contrast to the Australian Capital Territory's figures of 69.4% houses and 30.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Spence stood at 33.2%, with mortgaged properties at 46.1% and rented ones at 20.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,120, higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure for Spence was $375, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $430. Nationally, Spence's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were comparable at $375.

Spence has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.6% of all households, including 35.6% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 24.4%, comprising 21.1% lone person households and 2.8% group households. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Spence demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 34.6%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.8%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.6%) and graduate diplomas (5.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 31.8% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.6% and certificates at 20.2%. Educational participation is high, with 31.2% currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.1% in primary, 8.6% in secondary, and 5.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 27 active public transport stops operating within Spence. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling 98 individual routes. Collectively, these routes facilitate 7,199 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 150 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 1,028 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 266 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Spence is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant issues in Spence, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 57% (~1,428 people) of the total population has private health cover, a rate notably high. Mental health issues and asthma are the most frequent medical conditions, affecting 10.9 and 9.4% of residents respectively. Around 63.0% reported no medical ailments, compared to 68.1% across Australian Capital Territory. Spence has 18.1% (456 people) of its population aged 65 and over, higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 15.3%. Health outcomes among seniors in Spence are challenging, generally mirroring those of the wider population.

Spence ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Spence's population showed lower cultural diversity with 83.3% born in Australia, 93.5% being citizens, and 88.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 47.5%. Buddhism, however, was overrepresented at 1.5%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 3.0%.

The top three ancestral groups were Australian (28.5%), English (26.7%), and Irish (10.2%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Welsh at 0.7% in Spence vs 0.6% regionally, Polish at 0.9% vs 0.8%, and Spanish at 0.6% vs 0.5%.

Spence's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Spence's median age is 38 years, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 but equivalent to Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Spence has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (7.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.8%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 increased from 5.1% to 7.2%, while those aged 15 to 24 increased from 12.2% to 14.2%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 65 to 74 decreased from 11.6% to 9.4%, and those aged 5 to 14 dropped from 14.0% to 11.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Spence's age profile. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 56%, adding 21 residents to reach a total of 59. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 75% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 age groups are expected to experience population declines.