McKellar

McKellar has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

McKellar's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 2,633, a decrease of 107 people from the 2021 Census figure of 2,740. This reduction represents a 3.9% change since the census date. The current population estimate comes from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) as of June 2024 and address validation. This results in a population density of 1,867 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed about 56.2% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, using 2022 as the base year. According to these projections, McKellar's population is expected to decrease by 499 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are projected to grow, notably the 75 to 84 age group, which is anticipated to increase by 42 people over this period.

The level of residential development activity in McKellar is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

McKellar has seen approximately one new home approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around five homes were approved, with zero approvals so far in FY26.

The area's population decline has resulted in adequate development activity relative to other areas, benefiting buyers. New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $326,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, McKellar shows significantly reduced construction activity, with 94.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties, which is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent building activity consists solely of standalone homes, maintaining McKellar's traditional suburban character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The location has approximately 2646 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Given stable or declining population forecasts, McKellar may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favorable conditions for buyers.

McKellar has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 19thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified no projects likely to affect this region. Key initiatives include Geocon's Wayfarer Belconnen (Stage 2), Ginninderry Stage 3 - The Valley Release, Bruce Innovation District, and Belconnen Lakeshore - Connected Waterfront Precinct.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals McKellar recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

McKellar has an educated workforce with key services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 4.8%, showing relative stability over the past year. As of September 2025, 1,340 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is higher than the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) rate of 3.6%.

Workforce participation in McKellar lags behind ACT at 64.0% compared to ACT's 72.5%. Census data shows that only 13.3% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. Dominant employment sectors include public administration & safety, professional & technical services, and health care & social assistance. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

However, public administration & safety is under-represented compared to ACT, making up only 27.8% of McKellar's workforce versus ACT's 30.4%. Limited local employment opportunities are suggested by the difference between Census working population and resident population figures. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels increased by 0.6%, but employment declined by 0.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, ACT experienced employment growth of 1.4% and labour force growth of 1.2%, with a decrease in unemployment of 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to McKellar's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not consider localized population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that McKellar SA2 has one of the highest incomes in Australia. The median income is $69,692 and the average income stands at $80,802. This contrasts with Australian Capital Territory's figures where the median income is $72,206 and the average income is $85,981. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.26% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $76,145 (median) and $88,284 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in McKellar, between the 88th and 93rd percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows that the predominant cohort spans 27.3% of locals (718 people) with weekly earnings between $1,500 - 2,999, mirroring the broader area where 34.3% occupy this bracket. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 45.3% exceeding $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 89.8% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

McKellar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

McKellar's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.7% houses and 6.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Australian Capital Territory's 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in McKellar stood at 42.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.0% and rented ones at 19.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, surpassing the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,080. Median weekly rent in McKellar was recorded at $438, compared to Australian Capital Territory's $450. Nationally, McKellar's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

McKellar features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 79.4% of all households, including 35.7% couples with children, 32.9% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 20.6%, consisting of 17.6% lone person households and 2.9% group households. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

McKellar performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

In McKellar, educational attainment exceeds national averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 42.3% possess university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4%. This educational advantage is driven by bachelor degrees (25.3%), postgraduate qualifications (11.6%), and graduate diplomas (5.4%). Vocational pathways account for 24.9%, comprising advanced diplomas (9.2%) and certificates (15.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.6% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 6.1% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 21 active transport stops operating within McKellar. These stops serve a mix of bus routes totalling 59 individual routes, providing 3,841 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 158 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward. Car remains the dominant mode at 90%, while 6% use bus services. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 13.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 548 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 182 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in McKellar is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

McKellar demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (1,566 people), compared to 62.4% across Australian Capital Territory. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.7 and 7.8% of residents respectively, while 68.0% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across Australian Capital Territory. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 21.0% of residents aged 65 and over (552 people), which is higher than the 14.1% in Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

McKellar was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

McKellar's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 31.0% born overseas and 27.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in McKellar, accounting for 50.9% of its inhabitants. Notably, Buddhism had an overrepresentation in McKellar at 3.6%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory average of 3.0%.

The top three ancestral groups were Australian (22.7%), English (21.4%), and Other (11.2%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Croatian was overrepresented at 2.4% in McKellar versus 0.9% regionally, Polish at 1.1% versus 0.8%, and Serbian at 0.7% versus 0.4%.

McKellar's median age exceeds the national pattern

McKellar's median age is 43 years, which is significantly higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 years and considerably older than the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory average, the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in McKellar at 12.9%, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 12.3%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has grown from 4.8% to 6.7% of McKellar's population. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 12.8% to 11.8%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, McKellar's age profile will evolve significantly. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 18%, adding 31 residents to reach a total of 209. This growth is part of an ongoing demographic aging trend, with residents aged 65 and older representing 100% of the anticipated population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 15-24 age cohorts.