Flynn (ACT)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Flynn reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Flynn's population is estimated at around 3686 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 15 people (0.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3671 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3672 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1755 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Flynn's 0.4% growth since census positions it within 2.3 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 51.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections, with 2022 as a base, are adopted. As we examine future population trends, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the suburb's population expected to shrink by 450 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to expand by 27 people.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Flynn recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Flynn shows around 6 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, approximately 32 homes were approved, with 2 more approved so far in FY26.

This results in an average of 5.2 new residents arriving per dwelling constructed each year during this period. The demand for housing significantly outpaces supply, which typically drives up prices and intensifies competition among buyers. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $265,000. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Flynn has substantially reduced construction activity, 69.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new construction often reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. However, recent construction activity has intensified. Nationally, Flynn's building activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

New building activity is equally split between detached houses (50.0%) and medium to high-density housing (50.0%). This shift towards higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers, marking a significant change from the current housing mix of 96.0% houses. Flynn has approximately 333 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Flynn may see reduced pressure on housing, potentially presenting opportunities for buyers.

Flynn has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region: Ginninderry Stage 3 - The Valley Release. Other notable projects include Ginninderry Estate - Stages 4-7 (Strathnairn & future Macnamara), Kippax Fair Expansion & Upgrade, and Macnamara Residential Estate.

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Flynn has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Flynn has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 4.9%, with estimated employment growth of 2.1% over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of September 2025, 1,930 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.4% higher than the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.6%.

Workforce participation stands at 70.3%, below the ACT's 72.5%. Census data shows 13.1% of residents work from home, with potential Covid-19 lockdown impacts considered. Key employment industries include public administration & safety, education & training, and construction. The area specializes in construction, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have a limited presence at 8.6% compared to the regional 11.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 2.1% while labour force grew by 0.8%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.2 percentage points. In comparison, Australian Capital Territory experienced employment growth of 1.4% and labour force growth of 1.2%, with a 0.2 percentage point drop in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Flynn's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Flynn's median income among taxpayers is $68,838. The average income in the suburb is $77,813. Nationally, these figures are very high compared to the Australian Capital Territory's median of $72,206 and average of $85,981. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.26% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Flynn would be approximately $75,212 (median) and $85,018 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Flynn rank highly nationally, between the 89th and 94th percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 31.4% of locals (1,157 people) with incomes in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to surrounding regions where 34.3% fall within this range. Economic strength is evident with 45.2% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 88.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Flynn is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Flynn, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 96.5% houses and 3.5% other dwellings. In comparison, Australian Capital Territory had 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Flynn was 34.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.6% and rented dwellings at 15.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Flynn was $2,167, exceeding the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,080. The median weekly rent figure in Flynn was recorded at $481, compared to Australian Capital Territory's $450. Nationally, Flynn's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Flynn features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.1% of all households, including 41.8% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.9%, with lone person households at 15.9% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Flynn demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Flynn trail regional benchmarks; 37.5% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, compared to the SA4 region's 46.8%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most common at 22.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.4%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 31.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials; advanced diplomas account for 11.4% and certificates for 19.8%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 5.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 20 active stops operating within Flynn. These are served by a mix of buses, totaling 64 routes that facilitate 4,435 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 174 meters from the nearest stop. As primarily residential, most commute outward, with car being dominant at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, exceeding regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 13.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 633 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 221 weekly trips per stop.

Health outcomes in Flynn are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average outcomes in Flynn based on AreaSearch's assessment as of May 2022. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 58% of the total population, which is around 2135 people, compared to 62.4% across the Australian Capital Territory. As of May 2022, the most common medical conditions in the area were mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 9.6% and 8.4% of residents respectively. 67.4% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 70.2% across the Australian Capital Territory. Working-age residents show above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 17.5% of residents aged 65 and over, which is around 645 people, higher than the 14.3% in the Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Flynn records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Flynn's population showed cultural diversity with 20.4% born overseas and 13.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 45.1%. Judaism, at 0.2%, was slightly overrepresented compared to the Australian Capital Territory average of 0.2%.

The top three ancestral groups were English (27.3%), Australian (25.8%), and Irish (10.0%). Notably, Welsh (1.0% vs regional 0.6%), Polish (0.9% vs 0.8%), and Spanish (0.6% vs 0.5%) were overrepresented in Flynn.

Flynn's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Flynn's median age is 37 years, slightly older than Australian Capital Territory's 35 but aligned with Australia's national average of 38 years. The age group 5-14 represents 14.8% of Flynn's population compared to the Australian Capital Territory, while the 25-34 cohort represents 12.8%. Between 2021 and present day, the 75-84 age group has grown from 4.8% to 5.9% of the population. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has declined from 13.3% to 11.2%. By 2041, Flynn's population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes. The 85+ age cohort is projected to increase by 13 people (21%) from 66 to 80. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 100% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 75-84 and 0-4 age groups are projected to decrease in numbers.