McKellar

McKellar has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of McKellar's estimated population, as per AreaSearch analysis of ABS updates and address validation, is around 2,633 as of November 2025. This figure reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census count of 2,740 people, a change inferred from the resident population estimate by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. The estimated ERP population for McKellar is based on surrounding areas applied by ABS to the suburb by AreaSearch. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,867 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth in the area, contributing approximately 56% during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, using 2022 as the base year. Projections indicate an overall population decline by 499 persons in McKellar by 2041 according to this methodology. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 75 to 84 age group projected to increase by 43 people over this period.

The level of residential development activity in McKellar is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval data, McKellar has averaged approximately one new dwelling approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated five homes. As of FY26 so far, zero approvals have been recorded. During this period, population has fallen, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction cost value for new properties is $262,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, McKellar records significantly lower building activity, at 94.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties in the area. This activity is also below national averages, reflecting the area's maturity and potential planning constraints. Recent development has consisted entirely of standalone homes, maintaining McKellar's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The location has approximately 2646 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Given stable or declining population forecasts, McKellar may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

McKellar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No changes were identified by AreaSearch that could affect the area's performance. Key projects include Wayfarer Belconnen by Geocon (Stage 2), Onderra, Ginninderry Stage 3 - The Valley Release, and Bruce Innovation District.

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The employment landscape in McKellar shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

McKellar's workforce is highly educated with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.9% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.5%. This rate is lower than the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) employment growth of 1.9% during the same period. As of June 2025, McKellar had 1,395 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, which is 0.5% higher than ACT's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in McKellar was 62.3%, significantly lower than ACT's 69.6%.

Leading employment industries among residents were public administration & safety, professional & technical services, and health care & social assistance. The area showed strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. However, public administration & safety was under-represented, with only 27.8% of McKellar's workforce compared to ACT's 30.4%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 1.5%, while labour force increased by 1.5%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, ACT saw employment rise by 1.9% and unemployment fall by 0.3 percentage points during this period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to McKellar's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

McKellar has a median taxpayer income of $64,878 and an average income of $78,350 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is notably high compared to the Australian Capital Territory's median income of $68,678 and average income of $83,634. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.6% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $73,701 (median) and $89,006 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks McKellar's household, family, and personal incomes highly nationally, between the 89th and 93rd percentiles. Income distribution shows that 27.3% of locals (718 people) earn between $1,500 - 2,999 per week, reflecting a pattern seen in the broader area where 34.3% occupy this range. The district exhibits significant affluence with 45.3% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. After housing costs, residents retain 89.8% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

McKellar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

McKellar's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.7% houses and 6.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to the Australian Capital Territory's 69.4% houses and 30.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in McKellar stood at 42.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.0% and rented dwellings at 19.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in McKellar was $438, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $430. Nationally, McKellar's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

McKellar features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 79.4% of all households, including 35.7% couples with children, 32.9% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 20.6%, with lone person households at 17.6% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Educational achievement in McKellar places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

In McKellar, 42.3% of residents aged 15 years and above possess university qualifications, exceeding the national average of 30.4%. The area's highest proportion of qualifications is in bachelor degrees at 25.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.6%) and graduate diplomas (5.4%). Vocational pathways account for 24.9% of qualifications among those aged 15 years and above, with advanced diplomas making up 9.2% and certificates accounting for 15.7%. Educational participation is high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.6% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education. Educational facilities appear to be situated outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

McKellar has 24 active public transport stops. All these stops are served by buses via three different routes. These routes together facilitate 687 weekly passenger trips.

The average distance from a resident's location to the nearest transport stop is 151 meters. On average, there are 98 daily trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 28 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in McKellar are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

McKellar's health indicators show below-average results with common health conditions slightly more prevalent across both younger and older age groups compared to average.

Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 58% of the total population (1,530 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis affecting 9.7% of residents and asthma impacting 7.8%. A total of 68.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.1% across Australian Capital Territory. McKellar has 20.9% of residents aged 65 and over (550 people), higher than the 15.3% in Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

McKellar was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

McKellar's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 31.0% born overseas and 27.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in McKellar, making up 50.9%. Judaism was slightly overrepresented, comprising 0.2%, compared to 0.1% across Australian Capital Territory.

In terms of ancestry, Australians made up 22.7%, followed by English at 21.4%, and Other at 11.2%. Notably, Croatian (2.4%) and Polish (1.1%) groups were overrepresented in McKellar compared to regional averages of 0.8% each, while Serbian was also slightly higher at 0.7%.

McKellar hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

McKellar's median age is 43 years, significantly higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory average, the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented at 12.9% locally, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 12.3%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has grown from 4.8% to 6.7% of the population, while the 45-54 cohort has declined from 12.8% to 11.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests McKellar's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 18%, adding 32 residents to reach 209. Residents aged 65 and older represent 100% of anticipated growth, while population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 15-24 cohorts.