McKellar

McKellar has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of McKellar is around 2,619 people. This reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census figure of 2,740 people, indicating a reduction of 121 individuals (4.4%). The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and address validation since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,857 persons per square kilometer, which exceeds the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove recent population growth in the suburb, contributing approximately 56% of overall population gains.

Population projections for McKellar are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for SA2 areas covered by this data. For other SA2 areas and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections, also with a base year of 2022, are adopted. According to these projections, the suburb's population is expected to decrease by 473 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts like the 75 to 84 age group are projected to grow, with an increase of 35 people anticipated in this cohort over this period.

The level of residential development activity in McKellar is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows McKellar averaged around one new dwelling approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated five homes. As of FY-26, no approvals have been recorded yet. During this period, population has fallen, but housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $262,000. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, McKellar records significantly lower building activity, 94.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. This trend is also reflected nationally, indicating a mature market with potential development constraints. Recent development has been entirely comprised of detached dwellings, preserving the area's traditional suburban character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

With approximately 2647 people per dwelling approval, McKellar reflects a highly mature market. Given population is expected to remain stable or decline, McKellar should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

McKellar has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No infrastructure changes have been identified in this area by AreaSearch that could impact performance. Key projects include Geocon's Wayfarer Belconnen (Stage 2), Bruce Innovation District, Belconnen Lakeshore - Connected Waterfront Precinct, and Kenny New Suburb Development.

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McKellar shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

McKellar has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 5.5%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 1,334 residents are employed while the unemployment rate stands at 1.6% above the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in McKellar is lower at 64.6%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 70.5%. Census responses indicate that only 13.3% of residents work from home, factoring in Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Major employment industries include public administration & safety, professional & technical services, and health care & social assistance. Notably, construction is strongly specialized with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, public administration & safety is under-represented at 27.8% of McKellar's workforce compared to 30.4% in the Australian Capital Territory. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparing working population with resident population. Over a 12-month period, labour force increased by 1.0% while employment declined by 0.7%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.6 percentage points. This contrasts with the Australian Capital Territory where employment rose by 0.9%, labour force grew by 1.2%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to McKellar's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The median taxpayer income in McKellar is $64,878, with an average of $78,350 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. Nationally, this is high compared to the Australian Capital Territory's median income of $72,206 and average income of $85,981. By March 2026, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $71,651 and an average of $86,530, based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.44% since the financial year 2023. Census data from 2021 ranks McKellar's household, family, and personal incomes highly, between the 89th and 93rd percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 27.3% of locals (714 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, reflecting a pattern seen in the broader area where 34.3% occupy this range. The district's affluence is evident with 45.3% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. After housing costs, residents retain 89.8% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

McKellar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

McKellar's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.7% houses and 6.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with the Australian Capital Territory's structure of 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in McKellar stood at 42.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.0% and rented ones at 19.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,080. The median weekly rent figure in McKellar was $438, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $450. Nationally, McKellar's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

McKellar features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 79.4% of all households, including 35.7% couples with children, 32.9% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 20.6%, consisting of 17.6% lone person households and 2.9% group households. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Educational achievement in McKellar places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

In McKellar, a significant proportion of residents aged 15 and above have university qualifications, with 42.3%, compared to the Australian average of 30.4%. This high level of educational attainment is beneficial for knowledge-based opportunities in the area. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 25.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 11.6% and graduate diplomas at 5.4%. Vocational pathways account for 24.9% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.2% and certificates at 15.7%.

Educational participation is notably high in McKellar, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.6% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

McKellar has 21 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 59 different routes that together facilitate 3,841 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 158 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to McKellar being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport, used by 90% of residents, while only 6% use buses. The average number of vehicles per dwelling is 1.7, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 13.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 548 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 182 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in McKellar is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

McKellar shows above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts have low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 58% of the total population, around 1,522 people, compared to 62.4% across Australian Capital Territory. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.7 and 7.8% of residents respectively. 68.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across Australian Capital Territory. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 22.1% of residents aged 65 and over, around 578 people, which is higher than the 14.3% in Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

McKellar was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

McKellar's population showed higher diversity than most local areas, with 31.0% born overseas and 27.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in McKellar, accounting for 50.9%. Judaism, however, was slightly overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's average of 0.2%.

In terms of ancestry, Australians made up 22.7% of McKellar's population, followed by English at 21.4% and Other at 11.2%. Some ethnic groups were notably more prevalent in McKellar than regionally: Croatian (2.4% vs 0.9%), Polish (1.1% vs 0.8%), and Serbian (0.7% vs 0.4%).

McKellar hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

McKellar's median age is 43 years, significantly higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the ACT average, the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented at 12.8%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.8%. Following the Census conducted on 2021-Aug-11, the population aged 75 to 84 grew from 4.8% to 8.0%, and the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 11.8% to 12.9%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group declined from 12.8% to 11.5%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 15.1% to 13.8%. Demographic modeling suggests that McKellar's age profile will significantly evolve by 2041-Jun-30. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 5%, adding 9 residents to reach 219. Demographic aging continues as residents aged 65 and older represent 100% of anticipated population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 15 to 24 age cohorts.