Melba

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melba reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, as of Nov 2025, Melba's population is estimated at around 3,384 people. This reflects an increase of 1 person since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,383 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,382 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of six new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,464 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Melba's 0.0% growth since census positions it within 2.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.7%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, age group growth rates from ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted. Projections indicate an overall population decline by 311 persons by 2041, but specific age cohorts like the 85 and over group are expected to grow by 16 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Melba according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Melba averaging around 4 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 24 homes. As of FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. This averages out to approximately 5.1 new residents per year for every home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically influences prices upwards and increases competition among buyers. New homes are being constructed at an average value of $197,000, below regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers.

This financial year has seen $53,000 in commercial development approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Melba has significantly less development activity, 75.0% below the regional average per person, which generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. This level is also below national averages, indicating the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining Melba's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suitable for buyers seeking space. With approximately 751 people per approval, Melba appears to be a mature, established area.

Population projections suggest stability or decline, which should reduce housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Melba has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 45thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified one major project likely affecting the region: Ginninderry Stage 3 - The Valley Release. Key projects also include Ginninderry Estate - Stages 4-7 (Strathnairn & future Macnamara), Belconnen Lakeshore - Connected Waterfront Precinct, and New Northside Hospital. Relevant details are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Melba recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Melba has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 6.1% as of September 2025.

Over the past year, employment increased by 0.1% while labour force grew by 1.0%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. As of this date, 1,673 residents were in work and the unemployment rate was 2.5% above the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) rate of 3.6%. Workforce participation was somewhat below standard at 65.0%, compared to ACT's 69.6%. Leading employment industries among Melba residents comprise public administration & safety, education & training, and professional & technical services.

The area has particular employment specialization in education & training, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. However, public administration & safety employs just 25.9% of local workers, below ACT's 30.4%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Melba saw an increase in employment by 0.1%, labour force by 1.0%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, ACT recorded employment growth of 1.4%, labour force growth of 1.2%, and a fall in unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. Providing broader context, state-level data up to 25-Nov shows ACT employment grew by 1.19% year-on-year (adding 710 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.5%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. ACT's employment growth outpaced the national average of 0.14%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Melba. These projections suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Melba's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Melba had a median taxpayer income of $65,611 and an average income of $74,164 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is higher than the national average, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's median income of $72,206 and average income of $85,981. By September 2025, based on a 9.26% growth in wages since financial year 2023, estimated incomes would be approximately $71,687 (median) and $81,032 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Melba's household, family, and personal incomes rank high nationally, between the 84th and 86th percentiles. In Melba, 31.0% of individuals earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to the regional average of 34.3%. Economic strength is evident with 38.1% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, indicating strong consumer spending power. After housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of their income, reflecting robust purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Melba is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As per the latest Census evaluation in Melba, 80.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 19.2% consisting of other dwelling types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and others. This is compared to the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) figures of 69.4% houses and 30.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melba stood at 35.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.8% and rented ones at 20.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,100, higher than the ACT average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure in Melba was recorded at $400, compared to the ACT's $430. Nationally, Melba's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Melba has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.5% of all households, including 36.9% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 23.5%, with lone person households at 21.0% and group households making up 2.7%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Melba shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 40.3%, exceeding the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 23.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.5%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (18.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 43 active transport stops operating in Melba. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling 123 individual routes. They collectively provide 6,835 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 157 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 976 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 158 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melba is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Melba faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is high at approximately 56%, covering about 1,911 people. Mental health issues impact 10.1% of residents, while asthma affects 9.6%. About 65.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.1% across the Australian Capital Territory. The area has 16.7% of residents aged 65 and over (565 people), which is higher than the 15.3% in the Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melba was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melba's cultural diversity was above average, with 21.9% of its population born overseas and 16.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Melba, accounting for 45.4% of its people. However, the most notable overrepresentation was in Other religions, which comprised 1.2% of Melba's population compared to 1.3% across Australian Capital Territory.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (27.2%), English (24.9%), and Irish (9.2%). Notably, Welsh (0.7%) was overrepresented in Melba compared to regionally (0.6%), as were Croatian (0.8% vs 0.8%) and Serbian (0.4% vs 0.3%).

Melba's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Melba's median age is 38 years, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 but equivalent to Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Melba has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.7%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 11.0% to 12.8%, while the 0 to 4 age group has declined from 7.1% to 5.9%. The 45 to 54 age group has also decreased, from 13.5% to 12.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Melba's age profile. The 45 to 54 cohort is projected to grow by 5%, adding 19 residents to reach a total of 439. In contrast, both the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age groups are expected to decrease in number.