Melba

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melba reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Melba's population is estimated at around 3,384 people. This figure reflects an increase of 1 person since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,383 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population being 3,382 based on their examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 6 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,464 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Melba's 0.0% growth since the census places it within 2.4 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.4%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Recent population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 65.0% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are used, also with a base year of 2022. Projections indicate a decline in overall population over this period, with Melba's population expected to contract by 311 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group projected to increase by 16 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Melba according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Melba averaged around 4 new dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years ending FY25. This totals an estimated 24 homes. As of FY26, 0 approvals have been recorded. On average, 5.1 new residents are associated with each home built between FY21 and FY25.

This outpaces supply, potentially influencing prices and competition among buyers. The average construction cost value for new homes is $197,000, below regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing options. In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $626,000, indicating Melba's residential nature. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Melba has 75.0% less development activity per person. This limited supply typically supports stronger demand and values for established homes.

Nationally, Melba's level is also below average, suggesting maturity and possible planning constraints. Building activity comprises 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% medium to high-density housing, maintaining Melba's suburban identity with a focus on family homes. With around 751 people per approval, Melba is an established area. Population projections indicate stability or decline, which may reduce housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Melba has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified one major project likely affecting this region: Ginninderry Stage 3 - The Valley Release, scheduled for completion in late 2025. Other notable projects include Ginninderry Estate - Stages 4-7 (Strathnairn & future Macnamara), planned between 2026 and 2030; Belconnen Lakeshore - Connected Waterfront Precinct, starting in early 2028; and New Northside Hospital, expected to open by late 2027.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Melba recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Melba has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 5.2% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.8%. Residents' employment is concentrated in public administration & safety, education & training, and professional & technical industries. Education & training has a particularly high share of employment at 1.3 times the regional level, while public administration & safety employs 25.9% of local workers, below the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 30.4%. Workforce participation in Melba is 65.0%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 69.6%.

Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 1.8% and labour force by 1.6%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in Sep-22, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melba's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Melba has a median taxpayer income of $65,611 and an average income of $74,164 based on postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This is higher than the national averages of $68,678 (median) and $83,634 (average). By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $74,534 and average income $84,250, considering a Wage Price Index growth of 13.6% since the financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Melba rank highly nationally, between the 84th and 86th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. In Melba, 31.0% of individuals earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to the regional average of 34.3%. Economic strength is evident with 38.1% of households earning over $3,000 weekly, indicating robust consumer spending power. After housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Melba is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Melba's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census report, consisted of 80.8% houses and 19.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to the Australian Capital Territory's figures of 69.4% houses and 30.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melba stood at 35.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.8% and rented dwellings at 20.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Melba was recorded at $400, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $430. Nationally, Melba's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Melba has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.5% of all households, including 36.9% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.5%, with lone person households at 21.0% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Melba shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates of 40.3% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 23.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.5%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas make up 11.4% while certificates account for 18.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.8% pursuing tertiary education. Melba's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,342 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1040) with balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision is split between 1 primary and 2 secondary institutions. The area serves as an education hub with 39.7 school places per 100 residents – significantly higher than the regional average of 15.1 – attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 43 active stops operating in Melba. These are mixed bus services. They are served by 12 routes, providing a total of 1,085 weekly passenger trips.

Transport access is rated excellent, with residents typically located 157 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 155 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 25 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Melba is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Melba faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is high at approximately 56%, covering around 1,911 people. Mental health issues impact 10.1% of residents, while asthma affects 9.6%. A total of 65.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.1% across the Australian Capital Territory. The area has 16.7% of residents aged 65 and over (565 people), higher than the 15.3% in the Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melba was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melba's cultural diversity was found to be above average, with 21.9% of its population born overseas and 16.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Melba, making up 45.4% of people there. However, the category 'Other' was slightly overrepresented compared to the Australian Capital Territory average, comprising 1.2% versus 1.3%.

The top three ancestry groups in Melba were Australian at 27.2%, English at 24.9%, and Irish at 9.2%. Notably, Welsh (0.7%), Croatian (0.8%), and Serbian (0.4%) ethnicities were also overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.6%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively.

Melba's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Melba's median age is 38 years, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 but equivalent to Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Melba has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.7%). Between the 2021 Census and the current time, the population of residents aged 15-24 has grown from 11.0% to 12.8%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 0-4 has declined from 7.1% to 5.9%, and the proportion of residents aged 45-54 has dropped from 13.5% to 12.4%. Demographic modeling indicates that Melba's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 cohort (5%), adding 19 residents to reach a total of 439. In contrast, both the 15-24 and 0-4 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.