Melba

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melba reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Melba is around 3,426. This figure reflects an increase of 43 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,383. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 3,424 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 6 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,483 persons per square kilometer, which is above average national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Melba's 1.3% growth since census positions it within 2.9 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.2%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, using 2022 as a base. Projections indicate an overall population decline by 295 persons in Melba by 2041. However, specific age cohorts like the 45 to 54 age group are anticipated to grow, with a projected increase of 23 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Melba according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Melba shows an average of approximately 4 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 24 homes. So far in Financial Year 26, there has been 1 approval recorded. This averages out to about 5.2 new residents per year for every home built between Financial Years 21 and 25, indicating a significant demand outpacing supply. The average construction cost value of new homes is around $197,000, which is under regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing choices for buyers in the area.

In Financial Year 26, there have been $53,000 worth of commercial development approvals recorded, demonstrating Melba's residential nature. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Melba has significantly less development activity, at 75.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes in the area. The type of building activity in Melba shows 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% medium and high-density housing, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 751 people per approval, Melba indicates a mature, established area.

Population projections suggest stability or decline in Melba, which should result in reduced housing demand pressures, potentially benefiting potential buyers in the area.

Melba has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

AreaSearch has identified a single project that could impact the area, namely Ginninderry Masterplanned Community - Strathnairn & Macnamara. Other key projects include Ginninderry Estate - Strathnairn & Macnamara (Stages 1-7+), Belconnen Lakeshore - Connected Waterfront Precinct, and New Northside Hospital. The following details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Melba faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Melba's workforce is highly educated with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 6.8% as of AreaSearch data aggregation. As of December 2025, 1,663 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 9.8%, which is 6.0 percentage points higher than the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation was 65.4%, lagging behind the ACT's 70.5%. According to Census responses, 14.3% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries were public administration & safety, education & training, and professional & technical services. Melba had a particular specialization in education & training with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level, while public administration & safety employed only 25.9% of local workers compared to the ACT's 30.4%.

The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparison between working population and resident population. In the 12-month period ending in May-25, Melba's labour force increased by 1.1%, while employment declined by 0.8%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.8 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melba's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though these are simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Melba had a median taxpayer income of $65,611 and an average income of $74,164 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is higher than the national average median income of $72,206 and average income of $85,981 in the Australian Capital Territory. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.44% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $72,461 (median) and $81,907 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Melba rank highly nationally, between the 84th and 86th percentiles. Incomes of $1,500 - $2,999 are reported by 31.0% of the population (1,062 individuals), similar to the region's 34.3%. High weekly earnings exceeding $3,000 are achieved by 38.1% of households, indicating strong consumer spending power. After housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of their income, reflecting robust purchasing power, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Melba is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Melba, as per the latest Census evaluation, 80.8% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 19.2% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. This differs from the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) dwelling structure which was 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melba stood at 35.5%, with mortgaged properties making up 43.8% and rented dwellings accounting for 20.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,100, surpassing the ACT average of $2,080. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure in Melba was $400, compared to the ACT's $450. Nationally, Melba's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Melba has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.5% of all households, including 36.9% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 23.5%, with lone person households at 21.0% and group households comprising 2.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Melba shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 40.3% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 23.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.5%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 18.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 12.0% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melba has 43 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 123 different routes, offering a total of 6,835 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 157 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this predominantly residential area. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 90%, while buses account for 6%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Daily service frequency across all routes averages 976 trips, translating to about 158 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Melba are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Melba's health indicators show below-average outcomes, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (around 1,935 people), compared to 62.4% in Australian Capital Territory. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 10.1% of residents and asthma impacting 9.6%. Conversely, 65.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across Australian Capital Territory. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 16.9% of residents aged 65 and over (578 people), higher than the 14.3% in Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melba was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melba's cultural diversity was found to be above average, with 21.9% of its population born overseas and 16.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Melba, comprising 45.4% of its population. However, there is an overrepresentation of Other religions, making up 1.2% compared to the Australian Capital Territory's average of 1.4%.

The top three ancestral groups are Australian (27.2%), English (24.9%), and Irish (9.2%). Notably, Welsh (0.7%) and Croatian (0.8%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Melba compared to regional averages of 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively.

Melba's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Melba's median age is 38 years, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 but equivalent to the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Melba has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.8%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 11.0% to 13.6%, while the proportion of those aged 85 and above has increased from 1.0% to 2.1%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 65 to 74 has declined from 9.6% to 8.1%, and the proportion of children aged 0 to 4 has dropped from 7.1% to 5.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Melba's age profile will significantly change. The 45 to 54 age group is projected to show the strongest growth, increasing by 4% and adding 16 residents to reach a total of 448. In contrast, both the 0 to 4 and 15 to 24 age groups are expected to have reduced numbers.