Melba

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melba reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The suburb of Melba had an estimated population of 3,384 as of February 2026, based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations. This figure represents a slight increase from the 2021 Census count of 3,383 people, reflecting a growth rate of 0.0%. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 3,382 in June 2024, derived from AreaSearch's examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS and six additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a high population density ratio of 1,464 persons per square kilometer, exceeding national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Melba's growth rate places it within 2.7 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.7%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch projections for the suburb, based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a 2022 base year, indicate a decline in overall population by 311 persons to 2041. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 85 and over age group, projected to increase by 16 people over this period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Melba according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data indicates Melba averaged approximately 4 new dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 24 homes. As of FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 5.1 new residents per year was associated with every home built, suggesting demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically influences prices upwards and increases buyer competition. New homes were approved at an average construction cost value of $197,000, below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers.

In FY-26, $53,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Australian Capital Territory, Melba has significantly less development activity, 75.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, with a level also below national averages, suggesting maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity shows 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% medium to high-density housing, sustaining Melba's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With approximately 751 people per approval, Melba demonstrates characteristics of a mature, established area.

Population projections indicate stability or decline, suggesting reduced housing demand pressures in the future, benefiting potential buyers.

Melba has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area can greatly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a single project that is expected to impact this particular area. Notable projects include Ginninderry Stage 3 - The Valley Release, Ginninderry Estate - Stages 4-7 (Strathnairn & future Macnamara), Belconnen Lakeshore - Connected Waterfront Precinct, and New Northside Hospital. The following list provides details on those projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Melba recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Melba has a highly educated workforce as of September 2025. The unemployment rate is 6.1%. Employment stability has been relative over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

There are 1,673 residents currently employed, with an unemployment rate 2.5% higher than the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.6%. Workforce participation lags at 66.7%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 72.5%. A moderate 14.3% of residents work from home, based on Census responses, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Leading employment industries among residents include public administration & safety, education & training, and professional & technical services.

The area specializes in education & training, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. However, public administration & safety employs only 25.9% of local workers, below the Australian Capital Territory's 30.4%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 0.1%, while labour force grew by 1.0%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In comparison, Australian Capital Territory recorded employment growth of 1.4% and labour force growth of 1.2%, with a fall in unemployment of 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Melba. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Melba's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Melba had a median taxpayer income of $65,611 and an average income of $74,164 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This was higher than the national average, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's median income of $72,206 and average income of $85,981. As of September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.26% would be approximately $71,687 (median) and $81,032 (average). According to the 2021 Census figures, incomes in Melba ranked highly nationally, with household, family, and personal incomes between the 84th and 86th percentiles. Incomes of $1,500-$2,999 were reported by 31.0% of individuals (1,049 people), mirroring the regional trend where 34.3% fell within this bracket. Economic strength was evident with 38.1% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, indicating robust consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retained 87.3% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Melba is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Melba, as per the latest Census evaluation, 80.8% of dwellings were houses while 19.2% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to the Australian Capital Territory's figures of 63.3% for houses and 36.7% for other dwellings. Home ownership in Melba stood at 35.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.8% and rented ones at 20.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,080. The median weekly rent in Melba was $400, slightly lower than the Australian Capital Territory's figure of $450. Nationally, Melba's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,100 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $400 versus the national figure of $375.

Melba has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.5% of all households, including 36.9% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.5%, with lone person households at 21.0% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Melba shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile notably exceeds the Australian average in university qualification rates, with 40.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications compared to the national average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 23.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.5%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (18.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melba has 43 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 123 different routes, providing a total of 6,835 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest transport stop is 157 meters. Most residents commute outwards from Melba, with cars being the dominant mode of transport at 90%. Six percent of residents use buses for their commutes. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in Melba, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.3% of residents work from home, a figure that may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 976 trips per day, equating to approximately 158 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Melba are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Melba's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population, around 1,911 people, compared to 62.4% in Australian Capital Territory. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues impacting 10.1% of residents and asthma affecting 9.6%. About 65.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across Australian Capital Territory. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 16.4% of residents aged 65 and over, totaling 554 people, which is higher than the 14.3% in Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melba was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melba's population shows above average cultural diversity, with 21.9% born overseas and 16.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Melba, accounting for 45.4%. The most notable overrepresentation is seen in Other religions, which comprises 1.2% of Melba's population compared to 1.4% regionally.

In terms of ancestry, Australians make up 27.2%, English 24.9%, and Irish 9.2% of the population. Some ethnic groups show notable divergences: Welsh are overrepresented at 0.7% in Melba (vs 0.6% regionally), Croatian at 0.8% (vs 0.9%), and Serbian remains unchanged at 0.4%.

Melba's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Melba's median age is 38 years, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 but equivalent to Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Melba has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.6%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 15 to 24 has increased from 11.0% to 13.1%, while the population aged 65 to 74 has decreased from 9.6% to 8.2%. The population aged 0 to 4 has also dropped from 7.1% to 5.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Melba's age profile will significantly change. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 4%, adding 16 residents to reach a total of 439. Conversely, both the 85+ and 15-24 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.