Scullin

An assessment of population growth drivers in Scullin reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Scullin is around 3,049 people. This reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census figure of 3,069 people, representing a change of -20 persons (-0.7%). AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and analysis of ABS ERP data up to June 2024 indicate this population estimate. The density ratio stands at approximately 2,132 persons per square kilometer, surpassing the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration accounted for roughly 56% of overall population gains in recent periods.

ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for Scullin's SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, suggest a decline in total population by 266 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 85 and over group projected to expand by 37 people during this period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Scullin, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Scullin has seen approximately 6 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 34 homes were approved, with no approvals recorded so far in FY-26. On average, 0.7 new residents arrived per new home each year during this period, indicating that supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand.

The average construction value of these dwellings was $369,000. In the current financial year, commercial development approvals totalled $537,000, reflecting Scullin's residential nature. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Scullin has 61.0% fewer new dwellings per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties due to scarcity. This activity is also below national averages, suggesting maturity in the area and possible planning constraints. New building activity in Scullin consists of 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% medium and high-density housing, with an increasing mix of townhouses and apartments offering options across different price points. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, differing from the current housing mix which is 80.0% houses.

Scullin has approximately 612 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market with stable or declining population projections. Consequently, housing demand pressures are expected to be reduced, benefiting potential buyers.

Scullin has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No changes can impact an area's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 0 projects that could potentially affect this area. Notable projects include Kippax Fair Expansion & Upgrade, Belconnen Town Centre East Precinct (Republic Phase 2 & Future), Ginninderry Estate - Stages 4-7 (Strathnairn & future Macnamara), and New Northside Hospital. The following list provides details on those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Scullin has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Scullin has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.3% as of the past year, with estimated employment growth of 3.1%.

As of June 2025, 1,582 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 3.9%, above the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.4%. Workforce participation was 66.0%, below the ACT's 69.6%. Leading employment industries included public administration & safety, education & training, and health care & social assistance. Education & training had a significant share at 1.3 times the regional level.

However, public administration & safety had limited presence with 26.3% compared to the regional 30.4%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Over the past year, employment increased by 3.1%, while labour force grew by 1.5%, reducing unemployment by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Australian Capital Territory had employment growth of 1.9% and labour force growth of 1.6%, with a 0.3 percentage point drop in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 indicated potential future demand within Scullin. These projections suggested national employment could expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though growth rates varied significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Scullin's employment mix estimated local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch released postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022. Scullin's median income among taxpayers was $58,166 with an average of $72,994. Nationally, this is high compared to the Australian Capital Territory's median of $68,678 and average of $83,634. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $66,077 (median) and $82,921 (average), based on a 13.6% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Scullin cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 33.3% of locals (1,015 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, similar to the surrounding region at 34.3%. High household earnings exceeding $3,000 are seen in 30.5% of households, indicating strong consumer spending. Income is heavily weighted towards housing costs at 15.2%, but disposable income remains at the 68th percentile and Scullin's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Scullin is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Scullin, as per the latest Census, 79.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 20.0% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to the Australian Capital Territory's figures of 69.4% houses and 30.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Scullin stood at 27.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.6% and rented ones at 33.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, below the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Scullin was $390, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $430. Nationally, Scullin's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Scullin features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.0% of all households, including 32.6% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for 31.0%, with lone person households at 27.2% and group households comprising 3.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Scullin shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Scullin is notably high, with 42.5% of residents aged 15 years and over having university qualifications, compared to the Australian average of 30.4%. This is largely due to Bachelor degrees (24.7%), postgraduate qualifications (12.8%), and graduate diplomas (5.0%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 26.5% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (16.8%). Educational participation is high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (10.7%), secondary education (6.9%), and tertiary education (6.8%). Southern Cross Early Childhood School serves Scullin, with an enrollment of 113 students as of the latest data. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions, with an ICSEA score of 1088. There is one school focused exclusively on primary education in Scullin, while secondary options are available nearby. School capacity is limited locally (3.7 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.1), leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Scullin has 16 active public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by four distinct routes that collectively facilitate 952 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated excellent, with residents typically situated just 177 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 136 daily trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 59 weekly trips per individual stop.

Scullin's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Scullin's health metrics are close to national benchmarks.

Common health conditions among its residents are somewhat typical of the general population, but higher than the national average for older cohorts. Approximately 56% (~1,708 people) of Scullin's total population has private health cover, which is very high compared to other areas. The most common medical conditions in Scullin are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 10.2 and 9.2% of residents respectively. 68.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, comparable to the 68.1% across Australian Capital Territory. Scullin has 13.5% (411 people) of its population aged 65 and over, which is lower than the 15.3% in Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to presenting some challenges compared to the broader population.

Scullin was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Scullin was found to have a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 27.1% of its population born overseas and 24.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion in Scullin is Christianity, comprising 37.1% of the population. Notably, Islam is overrepresented in Scullin, making up 4.0% compared to the Australian Capital Territory's average of 3.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Australian (23.8%), English (23.3%), and Other (13.8%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences: Polish is overrepresented at 1.1% in Scullin compared to the regional average of 0.8%, Hungarian is at 0.4% versus 0.3%, and Spanish is at 0.7% compared to the region's 0.5%.

Scullin's population is younger than the national pattern

Scullin's median age is 35, matching the Australian Capital Territory figure but slightly lower than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Scullin has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.2%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.4%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the 5-14 age group increased from 13.1% to 14.2%, while the 45-54 cohort decreased from 12.6% to 11.2% and the 65-74 group fell from 7.8% to 6.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Scullin. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 49%, adding 27 residents to reach 82. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 88% of the total growth. Conversely, the 55-64 and 75-84 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.