Scullin

An assessment of population growth drivers in Scullin reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, the suburb of Scullin's estimated population as of May 2026 is around 3,052. This shows a decrease of 17 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,069. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 3,052 residents following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2025 and an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,134 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than average national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, age group growth rates from ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, using 2022 as the base year. Projections indicate an overall population decline in Scullin by 242 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts like the 85 and over group are anticipated to grow, with a projected increase of 32 people.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Scullin, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Scullin has seen around 6 new homes approved each year. Over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 34 homes were approved, with 0 so far in FY-26. On average, 0.9 new residents arrive per new home over these years, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average value of new dwellings developed is $369,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $537,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Relative to Australian Capital Territory, Scullin records markedly lower building activity, 61.0% below regional average per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity shows 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% medium and high-density housing, featuring an increasing blend of attached housing types offering choices across price ranges. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing, currently 80.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options.

With around 613 people per dwelling approval, Scullin reflects a highly mature market. Population projections showing stability or decline suggest reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Scullin has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 45thth percentile nationally

No changes can impact an area's performance more than modifications to local infrastructure, significant projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting this area. Notable projects include Kippax Fair Expansion and Redevelopment, Belconnen Town Centre East Precinct, Ginninderry Estate - Strathnairn & Macnamara (Stages 1-7+), and New Northside Hospital, with the following list outlining those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Scullin recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Scullin has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.0% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 2.5%. As of December 2025, 1,538 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 3.1% higher than the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation was similar to the ACT's 70.5%. According to Census responses, only 11.7% of residents worked from home in Scullin. Leading employment industries were public administration & safety, education & training, and health care & social assistance. Education & training had a particularly strong share at 1.3 times the regional level, while public administration & safety was lower at 26.3% compared to the regional average of 30.4%.

The area offered limited local employment opportunities, with fewer Census working population residents than total residents. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.5%, labour force grew by 0.9%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points. In contrast, the ACT had employment growth of 0.9% and labour force growth of 1.2%, with a slight rise in unemployment to 4.1%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Scullin's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for local population changes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch aggregated postcode-level ATO data released for financial year 2023. In Scullin suburb, median taxpayer income was $58,166 and average income was $72,994. Nationally, the averages were $72,206 and $85,981 respectively in Australian Capital Territory. By March 2026, estimated incomes are approximately $64,239 (median) and $80,615 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.44% since financial year 2023. According to 2021 Census figures, Scullin's household, family, and personal incomes clustered around the 74th percentile nationally. Income analysis showed that 33.3% of residents (1,016 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket. This is consistent with regional levels at 34.3%. High weekly earnings exceeding $3,000 were achieved by 30.5% of households, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing costs consumed 15.2% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 68th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Scullin is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Scullin's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.9% houses and 20.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Australian Capital Territory's 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Scullin was at 27.4%, aligning with the Australian Capital Territory figure, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.6% and rented ones at 33.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Scullin was $1,950, below the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,080. The median weekly rent in Scullin was $390, compared to the Australian Capital Territory figure of $450. Nationally, Scullin's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Scullin features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.0% of all households, including 32.6% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.0%, with lone person households at 27.2% and group households comprising 3.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Scullin shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Scullin's educational attainment is notably high, with 42.5% of residents aged 15 and above having university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4%. The area's educational advantage is evident in its Bachelor degree holders (24.7%), postgraduate qualifications holders (12.8%), and graduate diploma holders (5.0%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 26.5% of residents aged 15 and above possessing them, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (16.8%). Educational participation is notably high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.7% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 6.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 6.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Scullin has 15 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by a total of 54 routes, facilitating 2,965 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 178 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential zone, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 87%, while buses account for 7%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, only 11.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 423 trips daily, equating to approximately 197 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Scullin is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Scullin faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~1,710 people), compared to 62.4% across Australian Capital Territory. Mental health issues impact 10.2% of residents, while asthma impacts 9.2%. A total of 68.5% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 13.6% of residents aged 65 and over (415 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Scullin was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Scullin's population, as per the 2016 Census, showed higher cultural diversity compared to most nearby areas. Overseas-born residents constituted 27.1%, while those speaking languages other than English at home comprised 24.1%. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 37.1% of Scullin's population.

Islam, however, was more prevalent in Scullin at 4.0%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's average of 3.4%. Top ancestral groups were Australian (23.8%), English (23.3%), and Other (13.8%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Polish residents were 1.1% in Scullin, higher than the regional average of 0.8%, Hungarians at 0.4% compared to 0.3%, and Spanish speakers at 0.7% versus 0.5%.

Scullin's population is younger than the national pattern

Scullin's median age is 35 years, matching the Australian Capital Territory figure but lower than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Scullin has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (14.6%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.0%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the proportion of residents aged 5-14 increased from 13.1% to 14.6%, while the proportions of residents aged 65-74 decreased from 7.8% to 6.4% and those aged 45-54 dropped from 12.6% to 11.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Scullin. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 67%, adding 37 residents to reach a total of 92. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 84% of the population growth during this period. Conversely, the 55-64 and 45-54 age groups are projected to experience population declines.