Scullin

An assessment of population growth drivers in Scullin reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Scullin's population is estimated at around 3090 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 21 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3069 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3039, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2160 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Scullin's 0.7% growth since census positions it within 2 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections, with 2022 as a base, are adopted. Over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with Scullin's population expected to shrink by 266 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to expand by 37 people.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Scullin, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Scullin shows approximately six new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 34 homes were approved, with none yet recorded in FY26. The average annual increase in residents per new home over these years is 0.7.

This pace suggests that new supply meets or exceeds demand, providing ample buyer choices and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average expected construction cost of new dwellings is $369,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY26, commercial approvals totalled $537,000, reflecting minimal commercial development activity in Scullin compared to the Australian Capital Territory. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Relative to both regional and national averages, building activity in Scullin is low (61.0% below regional average per person), suggesting maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% medium and high-density housing.

This shift from the area's existing housing stock (currently 80.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles, requiring more diverse and affordable housing options. With around 612 people per dwelling approval, Scullin exhibits a highly mature market. Given stable or declining population projections, reduced housing demand pressures are expected, benefiting potential buyers in the area.

Scullin has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No factors impact an area's performance more than changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects likely to affect this area. Key projects include Kippax Fair Expansion & Upgrade, Belconnen Town Centre East Precinct (Republic Phase 2 & Future), Ginninderry Estate - Stages 4-7 (Strathnairn & future Macnamara), and New Northside Hospital. The following list details those most relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Scullin recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Scullin has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.1% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 2.6% over the previous year. This is based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, 1,533 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 3.6% higher than the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.6%. Workforce participation in Scullin was somewhat below standard at 69.8%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 72.5%. According to Census responses, only 11.7% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries among residents include public administration & safety, education & training, and health care & social assistance.

Scullin shows strong specialization in education & training with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level, but lower representation in public administration & safety at 26.3% compared to the regional average of 30.4%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.6% and labour force increased by 0.6%, causing a decrease in unemployment rate by 1.8 percentage points. In contrast, Australian Capital Territory experienced employment growth of 1.4% and labour force growth of 1.2%, with a drop in unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 provide further insight into potential future demand within Scullin. These projections estimate national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Scullin's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on 30 June 2023 for financial year 2023, Scullin suburb had a median taxpayer income of $58,166 and an average income of $72,994. Nationally, the average was $72,206. In Australian Capital Territory, it was $85,981. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median would be approximately $63,552 and the average $79,753, based on a 9.26% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census showed Scullin's incomes cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. Income analysis revealed that 33.3% of residents (1,028 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to regional levels at 34.3%. High weekly earnings exceeding $3,000 were achieved by 30.5% of households, indicating strong consumer spending potential despite high housing costs consuming 15.2% of income. Disposable income remained at the 68th percentile, with Scullin's SEIFA income ranking placing it in the 7th decile.

Scullin is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Scullin, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.9% houses and 20.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Scullin was at 27.4%, similar to the Australian Capital Territory, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.6% and rented ones at 33.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Scullin was $1,950, below the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,080. The median weekly rent figure was $390, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $450. Nationally, Scullin's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Scullin features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.0% of all households, including 32.6% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.0%, with lone person households at 27.2% and group households comprising 3.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Scullin shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Scullin's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 42.5% have university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4%. This advantage includes 24.7% with bachelor degrees, 12.8% with postgraduate qualifications, and 5.0% with graduate diplomas. Vocational credentials are also prevalent at 26.5%, comprising 9.7% advanced diplomas and 16.8% certificates.

Educational participation is high, with 32.5% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.7% in primary, 6.9% in secondary, and 6.8% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Scullin shows that there are 15 active transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by a total of 54 individual routes, providing a combined weekly passenger trip count of 2,965 trips. The accessibility to these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located an average of 178 meters from the nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward. The dominant mode of transportation is by car at 87%, while bus usage accounts for 7%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling in Scullin.

According to the 2021 Census data, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions, only 11.7% of residents work from home. The service frequency across all routes averages 423 trips per day, equating to approximately 197 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Scullin is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Scullin faces significant health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~1,731 people), compared to 62.4% in Australian Capital Territory. Mental health issues impact 10.2% of residents, while asthma affects 9.2%. 68.5% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among the working-age population are typical. The area has 13.6% of residents aged 65 and over (420 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Scullin was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Scullin was found to have a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 27.1% of its population born overseas and 24.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The dominant religion in Scullin is Christianity, comprising 37.1% of the population. However, Islam shows the most significant overrepresentation, making up 4.0% compared to the Australian Capital Territory's average of 3.4%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Australian (23.8%), English (23.3%), and Other (13.8%). Notably, Polish (1.1%) is overrepresented in Scullin compared to the regional average of 0.8%, Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.3%), and Spanish (0.7% vs 0.5%) also show higher representation.

Scullin's population is younger than the national pattern

Scullin's median age is 35 years, matching the Australian Capital Territory figure but slightly lower than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Scullin has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.5%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.4%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the percentage of residents aged 5-14 has increased from 13.1% to 14.5%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 has decreased from 12.6% to 10.9%, and the percentage of those aged 65-74 has dropped from 7.8% to 6.6%. By 2041, Scullin's population is projected to see significant demographic shifts. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 66%, adding 32 residents to reach a total of 82. This growth is part of an overall trend towards demographic aging, with residents aged 65 and older accounting for 98% of the anticipated population increase. Meanwhile, the 55-64 and 45-54 age groups are projected to experience population declines.