Melba

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melba reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Melba's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, was approximately 3,384 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1 person from the 2021 Census count of 3,383 people. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 3,382 in June 2024 and the addition of 6 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,464 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Melba's 0.0% growth rate since the census places it within 2.7 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate (2.7%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 64.7% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, also based on 2022. According to these projections, Melba's population is expected to decline by 311 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts like the 85 and over group are projected to grow, with an increase of 15 people anticipated during this period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Melba according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Melba has averaged approximately four new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 24 homes. As of FY-26, one approval has been recorded. On average, each home built between FY-21 and FY-25 accommodates around 5.1 new residents per year, indicating that demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically exerts upward pressure on prices and intensifies competition among buyers. The average construction cost value of new homes is $216,000.

In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $626,000, suggesting minimal commercial development activity compared to previous years. Melba's development activity is 75.0% below the regional average per person in the Australian Capital Territory, reflecting its established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity comprises 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% medium and high-density housing, offering a mix of opportunities across price brackets. With approximately 1087 people per approval, Melba is a mature, established area with an expected stable or declining population, potentially reducing pressure on housing and creating buying opportunities.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, Melba should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Melba has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 21stth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified one major project likely affecting the region: Ginninderry Stage 3 - The Valley Release. Other key projects include Ginninderry Estate - Stages 4-7 (Strathnairn & future Macnamara), Belconnen Lakeshore - Connected Waterfront Precinct, and New Northside Hospital. Relevant details are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Melba faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Melba has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 6.1% as of September 2025. Over the past year, employment stability was relative.

There were 1,673 residents employed by September 2025, with an unemployment rate at 2.5% above the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.6%. Workforce participation in Melba lagged significantly at 66.8%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 72.5%. According to Census responses, 14.3% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries among residents comprised public administration & safety, education & training, and professional & technical services.

Melba had particular employment specialization in education & training, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. In contrast, public administration & safety employed just 25.9% of local workers, below the Australian Capital Territory's 30.4%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 0.1% alongside labour force increasing by 1.0%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. By comparison, Australian Capital Territory recorded employment growth of 1.4%, labour force growth of 1.2%, with unemployment falling by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered further insight into potential future demand within Melba. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, estimated national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Melba's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The Melba SA2 median taxpayer income is $69,126, with an average of $76,284 according to AreaSearch's aggregated postcode level ATO data for the financial year 2023. Nationally, the median income is $72,206 and the average is $85,981. By September 2025, estimates suggest a median of approximately $75,527 and an average of around $83,348, based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.26% since financial year 2023. In Melba, household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 84th and 86th percentiles nationally, as per 2021 Census figures. The earnings profile shows that 31.0% (1,049 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the region where 34.3% occupy this bracket. Economic strength is evident with 38.1% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Melba is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Melba, as per the latest Census evaluation, 80.8% of dwellings were houses while 19.2% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments and 'other' dwellings, compared to Australian Capital Territory's 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melba stood at 35.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.8% and rented ones at 20.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,100, surpassing the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,080. Melba's median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Australian Capital Territory's $450. Nationally, Melba's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Melba has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.5% of all households, including 36.9% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.5%, comprising 21.0% lone person households and 2.7% group households. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Melba shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates of 40.3% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 23.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.5%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 11.4% while certificates make up 18.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melba has 43 active public transport stops, all of which serve buses. These stops are covered by 123 different routes, offering a total of 6,835 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 157 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards from Melba, predominantly using cars (90%). Bus usage stands at 6%. The area has an average vehicle ownership of 1.5 per dwelling, higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.3% of residents work from home, a figure possibly influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 976 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 158 weekly trips per individual stop.

Melba's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Melba's health metrics closely match national benchmarks, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are seen at a standard level across both young and old age cohorts.

Private health cover is very high, at approximately 57% of the total population (~1,928 people), compared to 62.4% in Australian Capital Territory. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (10.1%) and asthma (9.6%). A majority, 65.9%, report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across Australian Capital Territory. Working-age residents show a higher-than-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 16.8% of residents aged 65 and over (567 people), higher than the 14.1% in Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melba was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melba's cultural diversity was above average, with 21.9% of its population born overseas and 16.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Melba, comprising 45.4% of people. However, there was an overrepresentation in Other religions, which made up 1.2% of the population compared to 1.4% regionally.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (27.2%), English (24.9%), and Irish (9.2%). Notably, Welsh (0.7%) was slightly overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.6%. Croatian and Serbian populations in Melba were also notable at 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively, similar to their regional percentages of 0.9% and 0.4%.

Melba's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Melba's median age is 38 years, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 but equivalent to Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Melba has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.7%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 has increased from 11.0% to 12.8%, while the proportion of residents aged 0-4 has decreased from 7.1% to 5.9%. The proportion of residents aged 45-54 has also dropped, from 13.5% to 12.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Melba's age profile will change significantly. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 4%, adding 18 residents to reach a total of 439. In contrast, both the 15-24 and 0-4 age groups are expected to decrease in number.