Melba

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melba reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Melba's population was approximately 3,426 as of May 2026, an increase of 43 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,383. This growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 3,424 in June 2025 and six additional validated addresses since the Census date. Melba's population density was 1,483 persons per square kilometer as of May 2026, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 1.3% growth between Census dates compares favorably to its SA3 area's 4.2% growth. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.3% of Melba's population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, using 2022 as the base year. According to these projections, Melba's population is expected to decline by 294 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts like the 45 to 54 group are projected to grow, with an increase of 21 people anticipated in this cohort over this period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Melba according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Melba has averaged approximately four new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 24 homes. As of FY26, one approval has been recorded so far. On average, 5.1 new residents are expected per year for every home built between FY21 and FY25. This indicates that demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically exerts upward pressure on prices and intensifies competition among buyers.

New homes are being constructed at an average value of $216,000. In the current financial year, $626,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting minimal commercial development activity compared to previous years. Melba has significantly less development activity than the Australian Capital Territory, with 75.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new homes tends to strengthen demand and prices for existing properties. The area's level is also under the national average, indicating its established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations.

New building activity shows 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% medium and high-density housing, offering a mix of opportunities across price brackets from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. Melba has approximately 1087 people per approval, indicating a mature, established area with an expected stable or declining population in the future, which may reduce pressure on housing and create opportunities for buyers.

Melba has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 19thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area is greatly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a single project that is expected to have a significant impact on the area. Notable projects include Ginninderry Masterplanned Community - Strathnairn & Macnamara, Ginninderry Estate - Strathnairn & Macnamara (Stages 1-7+), Belconnen Lakeshore - Connected Waterfront Precinct, and New Northside Hospital. The following list details those projects that are likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Melba faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Melba's workforce is highly educated with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 6.8% as of December 2025. In this month, 1,663 residents were employed, which was 3.0% higher than the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Melba was 65.8%, compared to ACT's 70.5%. According to Census responses, 14.3% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries were public administration & safety, education & training, and professional & technical services. Education & training had a particularly high share of employment at 1.3 times the regional level, while public administration & safety employed only 25.9% of local workers, below ACT's 30.4%.

The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending in December 2025, Melba's labour force increased by 1.1%, while employment declined by 0.8%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.8 percentage points. In comparison, ACT recorded employment growth of 0.9% and labour force growth of 1.2%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicated that national employment was projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melba's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The median taxpayer income in Melba SA2 was $69,126 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The average income was $76,284. This is higher than national averages. In comparison, the Australian Capital Territory had a median income of $72,206 and an average income of $85,981 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.44% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $76,343 (median) and $84,248 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, Melba's household, family, and personal incomes ranked between the 84th and 86th percentiles nationally. In Melba, 31.0% of individuals earned within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to the regional average of 34.3%. Economic strength is evident with 38.1% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000. After housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Melba is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Melba, as per the latest Census, 80.8% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 19.2% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types of dwellings. In comparison, across the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), 63.3% of dwellings were houses and 36.7% were other types. Home ownership in Melba stood at 35.5%, with mortgaged properties making up 43.8% and rented dwellings accounting for 20.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, higher than the ACT average of $2,080. The median weekly rent in Melba was $400, compared to $450 across the ACT. Nationally, Melba's median monthly mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while median weekly rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Melba has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.5% of all households, including 36.9% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 23.5%, consisting of 21.0% lone person households and 2.7% group households. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Melba shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 40.3% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 23.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.5%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 18.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Melba has 43 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 123 different routes that collectively facilitate 6,835 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as excellent, with residents typically living within 157 meters of the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outwards from Melba. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 90%, while only 6% use buses for their journeys. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.5, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.3% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 976 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 158 weekly trips per individual stop.

Melba's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Melba's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks. AreaSearch assessed mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence as fairly standard across both young and old age cohorts, with a high rate of private health cover at approximately 57% (~1,952 people), compared to 62.4% in the Australian Capital Territory.

The most common medical conditions were mental health issues (10.1%) and asthma (9.6%), while 65.9% reported no medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across the Australian Capital Territory. Working-age residents had an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. Residents aged 65 and over comprised 16.9% (578 people), higher than the Australian Capital Territory's 14.3%. Health outcomes among seniors were above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melba was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melba's population shows cultural diversity with 21.9% born overseas and 16.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 45.4%. The 'Other' religious category has a slightly higher representation in Melba at 1.2%, compared to 1.4% regionally.

Ancestry-wise, Australian (27.2%), English (24.9%) and Irish (9.2%) are the top groups. Some ethnicities have notable differences: Welsh is overrepresented at 0.7% in Melba versus 0.6% regionally, Croatian stands at 0.8% compared to 0.9%, and Serbian remains at 0.4%.

Melba's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Melba's median age is 38 years, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 but equivalent to the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Melba has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.7%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 11.0% to 13.5%, while the population aged 85+ has increased from 1.0% to 2.1%. Conversely, the population aged 65 to 74 has declined from 9.6% to 8.1%, and the population aged 0 to 4 has dropped from 7.1% to 5.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Melba's age profile will change significantly. The 45 to 54 cohort is projected to grow by 4%, adding 19 residents to reach a total of 447. In contrast, both the 85+ and 15 to 24 age groups are expected to decrease in number.