Melba
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Melba reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Melba's population, as of Aug 2025, is approximately 3,384, a figure that reflects a growth of 1 person since the 2021 Census. The ABS estimated resident population in June 2024 was 3,382, with an additional 6 validated new addresses post-Census contributing to this increase. This results in a density ratio of 1,464 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Melba's growth rate since the Census is 0.0%, placing it within 2.4 percentage points of its SA3 area. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 64.7% of overall population gains in recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted. Future demographic trends indicate an overall population decline. By 2041, Melba's population is projected to decrease by 311 persons. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 85 and over age group, which is projected to increase by 15 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Melba according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Melba averaged approximately 8 new dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, with 42 dwellings approved over the past five financial years, from FY-20 to FY-25, and no approvals recorded so far in FY-26. Over these five years, an average of 5.1 new residents were associated with each home built. This demand significantly outpaces supply, which can put upward pressure on prices and increase competition among buyers.

The average value for new homes being constructed is $197,000, below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing choices for buyers. In FY-26, commercial development approvals valued at $626,000 have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Melba has significantly less development activity, 75.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. The level of new building activity is also below the national average, suggesting possible planning constraints.

New building activity comprises 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% medium and high-density housing, offering a range of medium-density options across different price brackets. Melba has around 1087 people per approval, indicating a mature, established area. Population projections suggest stability or decline, which should reduce housing demand pressures and benefit potential buyers.

Melba has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 25thth percentile nationally

No factor impacts a region's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major ventures, and planning schemes. AreaSearch has pinpointed 0 projects that could significantly affect this area. Notable projects include Onderra, New Northside Hospital, Parkwood Urban Release, and Ngurra Cultural Precinct, with the following list highlighting those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Melba recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Melba has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 5.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.8%.

As of June 2025, 1,715 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.6%, which is 3.2 percentage points higher than the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) rate of 3.4%. Workforce participation in Melba was 65.0%, compared to ACT's 69.6%. The leading employment industries among residents were public administration & safety, education & training, and professional & technical services. Education & training had a significant share of employment at 1.3 times the regional level.

In contrast, public administration & safety employed only 25.9% of local workers, below ACT's 30.4%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Over the past year, ending Sep-25, ACT employment contracted by 0.33%, losing 1,480 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, compared to a national rate of 4.5% and national employment growth of 0.26%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Melba's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Melba shows median taxpayer income of $65,611 and average income of $74,164 according to latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is above national averages of $68,678 (median) and $83,634 (average). By March 2025, estimated median income is approximately $72,684 and average income is $82,159 based on Wage Price Index growth. Incomes in Melba rank highly nationally according to 2021 Census figures, between the 85th and 87th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income distribution shows 31% of residents earning $1,500-$2,999 annually, reflecting regional trends. Economic strength is evident with 38.1% of households earning over $3,000 weekly. Post-housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of income, indicating strong purchasing power; area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Melba is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As per the latest Census evaluation in Melba, dwelling structures comprised 80.8% houses and 19.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Australian Capital Territory's 69.4% houses and 30.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Melba was at 35.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.8% and rented ones at 20.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,100, higher than Australian Capital Territory's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Australian Capital Territory's $430. Nationally, Melba's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Melba has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.5% of all households, including 36.9% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.5%, with lone person households making up 21.0% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Melba shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The region's educational profile is notable with university qualification rates at 40.3% among residents aged 15+, surpassing Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 23.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.5%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 18.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.8% pursuing tertiary education. Melba's schools have a combined enrollment of 1,342 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1040) with balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision is split between one primary and two secondary institutions. The area serves as an education hub with 39.7 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 15.1, attracting students from nearby communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Melba shows 43 active transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 12 different routes, together offering 1,085 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average located 157 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 155 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 25 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Melba is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Melba has significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 56%, covering around 1,911 people. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 10.1% and 9.6% of residents respectively. 65.9% reported no medical ailments, compared to 68.1% in Australian Capital Territory. The area has a higher percentage of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.8%, with 567 people falling into this category, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 15.3%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Melba was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Melba's cultural diversity is notable with 21.9% of its population born overseas and 16.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 45.4% of Melba's residents. However, the 'Other' religious category is slightly overrepresented in Melba at 1.2%, compared to 1.3% across Australian Capital Territory.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Australian (27.2%), English (24.9%), and Irish (9.2%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Welsh are overrepresented at 0.7% in Melba versus 0.6% regionally, Croatian is equally represented at 0.8%, and Serbian is slightly overrepresented at 0.4%.

Melba's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Melba's median age is 38 years, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 but equivalent to the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Melba has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.7%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 11.0% to 12.8%, while the population aged 0 to 4 has declined from 7.1% to 5.9%. The population aged 45 to 54 has also decreased, from 13.5% to 12.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Melba's age profile. The 45 to 54 cohort is projected to grow by 4%, adding 18 residents to reach a total of 439. Meanwhile, both the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age groups are expected to decrease in number.