Scullin

An assessment of population growth drivers in Scullin reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Scullin's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 3,090 people. This figure represents an increase of 21 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 3,069. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,039 in June 2024 and the addition of 15 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a population density of around 2,160 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Scullin's growth rate of 0.7% since the Census places it within 2.0 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth (2.7%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.4% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, also based on 2022. Future population trends indicate a decline by 266 persons in Scullin by 2041, according to these projections. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 85 and over age group, projected to expand by 36 people during this period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Scullin, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Scullin has seen approximately six new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 34 homes were approved, with none yet approved in FY26. The average number of new residents arriving per new home over these years is 0.7.

This pace indicates that new supply meets or exceeds demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $217,000. In FY26, $537,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Scullin has significantly lower construction levels, at 61.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Nationally, this activity is also below average, indicating the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity in Scullin consists of 50.0% detached houses and 50.0% medium to high-density housing.

This shift from the current housing mix (80.0% houses) reflects reduced development site availability and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 1691 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Population projections suggest stability or decline in Scullin, which should reduce housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Scullin has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 19thth percentile nationally

No projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to impact the area. Key projects include Kippax Fair Expansion & Upgrade, Belconnen Town Centre East Precinct (Republic Phase 2 & Future), Ginninderry Estate - Stages 4-7 (Strathnairn & future Macnamara), and New Northside Hospital.

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Employment drivers in Scullin are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Scullin has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.1% as of a certain date, with estimated employment growth at 2.6%. As of September 2025, 1,533 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 3.6%, exceeding the Australian Capital Territory's rate by the same percentage.

Workforce participation was lower than standard, at 69.5% compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 72.5%. According to Census responses, only 11.7% of residents worked from home. The leading employment industries were public administration & safety, education & training, and health care & social assistance. Scullin had a particular specialization in education & training, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

However, public administration & safety had limited presence at 26.3% compared to the regional average of 30.4%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. In the 12-month period ending on a certain date, employment increased by 2.6%, while labour force grew by 0.6%, leading to an unemployment rate decrease of 1.8 percentage points. In contrast, Australian Capital Territory experienced employment growth of 1.4% and labour force growth of 1.2%, with a smaller drop in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicated potential future demand within Scullin. These projections suggested national employment would expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates varied significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Scullin's employment mix estimated local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch released postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023. Scullin SA2's median income among taxpayers was $61,632, with an average of $75,815. Nationally, this is high compared to the Australian Capital Territory's median of $72,206 and average of $85,981. By September 2025, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $67,339 and an average of $82,835, based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.26%. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Scullin cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. Distribution data shows that 33.3% of locals (1,028 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. Surrounding regions exhibit similar patterns, with 34.3% in this range. Economic strength is evident through 30.5% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 68th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Scullin is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Scullin, as per the latest Census evaluation, 79.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 20.0% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This differs from the Australian Capital Territory's dwelling structure, which was 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Scullin stood at 27.4%, similar to the ACT's level. Mortgaged dwellings made up 39.6%, while rented dwellings accounted for 33.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Scullin was $1,950, lower than the ACT average of $2,080. The median weekly rent in Scullin was $390, compared to the ACT's $450. Nationally, Scullin's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Scullin has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 69.0% of all households, including 32.6% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.0%, with lone person households at 27.2% and group households comprising 3.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Scullin shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Scullin is notably higher than the national average, with 42.5% of residents aged 15 years and above holding university qualifications compared to Australia's 30.4%. This educational advantage is evident across various levels: Bachelor degrees are held by 24.7%, postgraduate qualifications by 12.8%, and graduate diplomas by 5.0%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 26.5% of residents aged 15 years and above holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 9.7% and certificates at 16.8%. Educational participation is high, with 32.5% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.7% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 6.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Scullin has 15 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 54 different routes that together facilitate 2,965 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically residing just 178 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, most Scullin residents commute outward using cars, which remain the dominant mode at 87%, while only 7% use buses. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 11.7% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 423 trips per day, equating to approximately 197 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Scullin are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Scullin's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population, around 1,748 people, compared to 62.4% across Australian Capital Territory. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 10.2 and 9.2% of residents respectively. 68.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 13.5% of residents aged 65 and over, around 418 people. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Scullin was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Scullin, as of the Australian Census on 29 August 2016, had a higher level of cultural diversity than most local markets, with 27.1% of its population born overseas and 24.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Scullin, making up 37.1% of the population. However, Islam showed significant overrepresentation, comprising 4.0% of the population compared to the Australian Capital Territory's average of 3.4%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian at 23.8%, English at 23.3%, and Other at 13.8%. Notable divergences included Polish, overrepresented at 1.1% in Scullin compared to 0.8% regionally, Spanish at 0.7% (vs 0.5%), and Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%).

Scullin's population is younger than the national pattern

Scullin's median age is 35 years, matching the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) figure but slightly lower than Australia's 38 years. Compared to ACT, Scullin has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.2%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.4%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the 5-14 age group has increased from 13.1% to 14.2%, while the 45-54 age cohort has decreased from 12.6% to 11.2% and the 65-74 age group has dropped from 7.8% to 6.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Scullin. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow by 49%, adding 26 residents to reach a total of 82. This growth will be primarily driven by the aging of the population, with residents aged 65 and older representing 97% of anticipated growth. Conversely, the 55-64 and 75-84 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.