Scullin
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Scullin reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Scullin's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 3,055 people. This figure represents a decrease of 14 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 3,069. The ABS estimated resident population for June 2024 was 3,040, with an additional 17 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this change. This results in a population density ratio of 2,136 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. While Scullin experienced a 0.5% decline since the census, the SA3 area saw a 2.4% growth, indicating differing population trends. Overseas migration drove recent population growth in the area, contributing approximately 56.4% of overall gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, using 2022 as the base year. Future population trends indicate an overall decline, with the area's population projected to decrease by 266 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 85 and over age group, which is projected to increase by 36 people.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Scullin, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Scullin has seen approximately six new homes approved annually. Development approval data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows 30 homes approved over the past five financial years, between FY20 and FY25, with zero approvals recorded so far in FY26. On average, 0.7 people have moved to the area each year for every dwelling built during these years. This indicates that new construction is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing more buying options and potentially driving population growth beyond current projections.

The average expected construction cost of new properties is $369,000. In FY26, $537,000 worth of commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting minimal commercial development activity in the area. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Scullin has significantly lower building activity, at 63% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Additionally, this activity is below the national average, which reflects the area's maturity and could indicate possible planning constraints. New building activity in Scullin consists of 50% detached houses and 50% medium to high-density housing. This shift towards denser development offers accessible entry options, appealing to downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers.

This is a notable change from the area's existing housing stock, which is currently 80% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting evolving lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. With approximately 1691 people per dwelling approval, Scullin reflects a highly mature market. Population projections show stability or decline in the area, which should reduce housing demand pressures and benefit potential buyers.

Scullin has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 24thth percentile nationally

No factor influences a region's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include New Northside Hospital, Parkwood Urban Release, Deakin Private Hospital, and Ngurra Cultural Precinct, with the following list outlining those most pertinent.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Scullin recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Scullin has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.3% as of June 2025.

There has been estimated employment growth of 3.1% over the past year. As of June 2025, 1,582 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 3.9%, higher than the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.4%. Workforce participation in Scullin was 66.0%, lower compared to the ACT's 69.6%. Leading employment industries for residents include public administration & safety, education & training, and health care & social assistance.

Scullin shows strong specialization in education & training with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. However, public administration & safety has lower representation at 26.3% versus the regional average of 30.4%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.1% while labour force increased by 1.5%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, ACT experienced employment growth of 1.9% with a 0.3 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. State-level data to Sep-25 shows ACT employment contracted by 0.33% (losing 1,480 jobs) with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, compared to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Scullin's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Scullin had a median income among taxpayers of $58,166 and an average level of $72,994. These figures are high nationally compared to the ACT's respective levels of $68,678 and $83,634. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.78% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $64,436 (median) and $80,863 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Scullin cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. Income analysis reveals that 33.3% of residents (1,017 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket, consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 34.3% in the same category. Economic strength is evident through 30.5% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income, though strong earnings place disposable income at the 68th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Scullin is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Scullin's dwelling structures, as recorded in the latest Census, 79.9% were houses with the remaining 20.0% being other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of residences. This compares to the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) figures of 69.4% houses and 30.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Scullin stood at 27.4%, with mortgaged properties making up 39.6% and rented ones 33.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, lower than the ACT average of $2,000. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent in Scullin was $390 compared to the ACT's $430. Nationally, Scullin's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Scullin features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 69.0% of all households, including 32.6% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.0%, with lone person households at 27.2% and group households comprising 3.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Scullin shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Scullin is notably higher than national averages. As of 2016, 42.5% of residents aged 15 years and above have university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4%. The area's educational advantage is reflected in its high proportion of Bachelor degrees (24.7%), postgraduate qualifications (12.8%), and graduate diplomas (5.0%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 26.5% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (16.8%).

Educational participation is high, with 32.5% of residents enrolled in formal education as of 2016. This includes primary education (10.7%), secondary education (6.9%), and tertiary education (6.8%). Southern Cross Early Childhood School serves Scullin, with an enrollment of 113 students as of 2021. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions, with an ICSEA score of 1088. There is one school focusing exclusively on primary education in Scullin, while secondary options are available nearby due to limited local school capacity (3.7 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.1), leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 16 active stops operating within Scullin, served by a mix of buses. These are covered by 4 routes, offering 952 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport access is rated excellent, with residents typically residing 177 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 136 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 59 weekly trips per individual stop.

Scullin's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Scullin's health metrics are close to national benchmarks, with common health conditions among its residents being somewhat typical of the general population, although higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Approximately 56% (~1,710 people) of Scullin's total population has private health cover, which is very high compared to other areas. The most prevalent medical conditions in Scullin are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 10.2% and 9.2% of residents respectively. A total of 68.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 68.1% figure for the Australian Capital Territory. Scullin has a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 13.5% (413 people) compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 15.3%. However, health outcomes among seniors in Scullin require more attention than those of the broader population.

Scullin was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Scullin's population shows high diversity, with 27.1% born overseas and 24.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Scullin, practiced by 37.1%. Buddhism appears more prevalent here compared to Australia Capital Territory, comprising 3.4% versus 3.0%.

The top ancestry groups are Australian (23.8%), English (23.3%), and Other (13.8%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Polish at 1.1%, Spanish at 0.7%, and Hungarian at 0.4%, each higher than their regional percentages of 0.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively.

Scullin's population is younger than the national pattern

Scullin's median age is 35 years, matching the Australian Capital Territory figure but lower than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Scullin has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.2%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.4%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 5-14 age group increased from 13.1% to 14.2%, while the 45-54 cohort decreased from 12.6% to 11.2% and the 65-74 group fell from 7.8% to 6.5%. By 2041, Scullin's population is projected to see significant demographic shifts, with the 85+ age cohort showing the strongest growth at 51%, adding 27 residents to reach a total of 82. The population aged 65 and older is expected to represent 89% of this growth, while the 55-64 and 75-84 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.