Scullin

An assessment of population growth drivers in Scullin reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Scullin's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 3,052 people. This figure represents a decrease from the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 3,069 people. The decline of 17 people (0.6%) is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 3,052 in June 2025 and the validation of 15 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,134 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.3% to recent population gains in Scullin.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years after 2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, also using 2022 as the base year. Future population trends indicate an overall decline in Scullin's population by 241 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 85 and over age group, projected to increase by 32 people.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Scullin, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Scullin has averaged approximately 6 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 34 homes. As of FY26, 0 approvals have been recorded. Between FY21 and FY25, an average of 0.7 new residents per year was associated with each dwelling constructed. This suggests that new construction has kept pace with or exceeded demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

The average value of new dwellings developed is $217,000. In FY26, $537,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating a predominant focus on residential development. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Scullin has significantly less development activity, with 61.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Nationally, Scullin's level of development is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development in Scullin consists of 50.0% standalone homes and 50.0% medium and high-density housing. This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 80.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles, with a need for more diverse, affordable housing options.

With around 1691 people per dwelling approval, Scullin exhibits a highly mature market. Given that population is expected to remain stable or decline, there should be reduced pressure on housing in Scullin, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Scullin has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 16thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area. Key projects include Kippax Fair Expansion and Redevelopment, Belconnen Town Centre East Precinct, Ginninderry Estate - Strathnairn & Macnamara (Stages 1-7+), and New Northside Hospital. The following list details those most relevant.

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Scullin shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Scullin has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.0% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.5%.

As of December 2025, 1,538 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 3.1% higher than the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Scullin was similar to the Australian Capital Territory's 70.5%. According to Census responses, 11.7% of residents worked from home as of December 2025. Key industries of employment among residents were public administration & safety, education & training, and health care & social assistance.

Employment in education & training was at 1.3 times the regional average. However, public administration & safety employed only 26.3% of local workers, below the Australian Capital Territory's 30.4%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, with a lower count of Census working population compared to resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 2.5% while labour force increased by 0.9%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points. In contrast, Australian Capital Territory recorded employment growth of 0.9%, labour force growth of 1.2%, and an increase in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Scullin's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30, 2023, Scullin SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $61,632 with the average level standing at $75,815. This is above national averages of $72,206 and $85,981 respectively in Australian Capital Territory. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.44% since financial year 2023, current estimates are approximately $68,066 (median) and $83,730 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Scullin cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. The data indicates 33.3% of the population (1,016 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, consistent with broader metropolitan trends showing 34.3% in the same category. A substantial proportion of high earners (30.5% above $3,000/week) is evident. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income, placing disposable income at the 68th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Scullin is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Scullin, as per the latest Census evaluation, 79.9% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 20.0% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with the Australian Capital Territory's figures of 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Scullin stood at 27.4%, aligning with the Australian Capital Territory's rate, while 39.6% were mortgaged and 33.1% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, lower than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,080, and the median weekly rent was $390 compared to the territory's $450. Nationally, Scullin's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $390 compared to the national figure of $375.

Scullin has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 69.0% of all households, including 32.6% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.0%, with lone person households at 27.2% and group households comprising 3.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Scullin shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Scullin is notably high, with 42.5% of residents aged 15 years and over holding university qualifications compared to the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 24.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.8%) and graduate diplomas (5.0%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 26.5% of residents in this age group holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 9.7% and certificates for 16.8%. Educational participation is high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.7% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 6.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 15 active stops operating within Scullin, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 54 individual routes that together facilitate 2,965 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 178 meters from the nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward and cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 87%, while buses account for 7%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, only 11.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 423 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 197 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Scullin are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Scullin's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of Scullin's total population (~1,727 people), compared to 62.4% across Australian Capital Territory. The most common medical conditions in Scullin are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 10.2% and 9.2% of residents respectively. However, 68.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among the working-age population in Scullin are broadly typical. The area has 13.6% of residents aged 65 and over (416 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Scullin was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Scullin's population showed high cultural diversity, with 27.1% born overseas and 24.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, accounting for 37.1%. Islam was overrepresented at 4.0%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory average of 3.4%.

The top three ancestral groups were Australian (23.8%), English (23.3%), and Other (13.8%). Notably, Polish (1.1% vs regional 0.8%), Spanish (0.7% vs 0.5%), and Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.3%) groups were overrepresented in Scullin.

Scullin's population is younger than the national pattern

Scullin's median age is 35, matching the Australian Capital Territory figure but lower than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Scullin has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (14.6%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.1%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the 5-14 age group has increased from 13.1% to 14.6%. Meanwhile, the 65-74 age group has decreased from 7.8% to 6.4%, and the 45-54 age group has dropped from 12.6% to 11.5%. By 2041, Scullin's population is forecasted to undergo significant demographic changes. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 65%, adding 36 residents to reach 92. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 86% of this growth. Conversely, the 55-64 and 45-54 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.