Flynn (ACT)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Flynn reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Flynn's population is around 3686 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 15 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3671 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3672 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1755 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Flynn's 0.4% growth since census positions it within 2.3 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 51.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections, with 2022 as a base, are adopted. As we examine future population trends, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to shrink by 450 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to expand by 28 people.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Flynn recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Flynn has seen approximately 6 new homes approved each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 32 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved so far in FY26.

On average, over these years, around 5.2 new residents arrived per dwelling constructed annually. This demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers. The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $248,000. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Flynn shows substantially reduced construction activity, at 69.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. However, construction activity has intensified recently. Nationally, this reflects market maturity and possible development constraints.

New building activity is currently focused equally on detached houses (50.0%) and medium to high-density housing (50.0%). This shift towards higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This marks a significant change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (96.0%), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Flynn has approximately 344 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Flynn should see reduced pressure on housing in the future, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Flynn has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 19thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified one major project expected to affect this region: Ginninderry Stage 3 - The Valley Release, Ginninderry Estate - Stages 4-7 (Strathnairn & future Macnamara), Kippax Fair Expansion & Upgrade, and Macnamara Residential Estate. These are the key projects likely to have the most relevance.

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Flynn has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Flynn has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 4.9% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.1%.

As of that date, 1,930 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% higher than the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.6%. Workforce participation was lower than standard, at 70.3%, compared to the ACT's 72.5%. According to Census responses, only 13.1% of residents worked from home, with Covid-19 lockdown impacts considered. The leading employment industries among Flynn residents were public administration & safety, education & training, and construction.

Construction had a particularly high share of employment, at 1.5 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services had limited presence, with only 8.6% employment compared to the regional average of 11.1%. The predominantly residential area offered limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population count versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, Flynn saw employment increase by 2.1%, with a corresponding labour force increase of 0.8%, leading to a 1.2 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, the Australian Capital Territory experienced employment growth of 1.4% and labour force growth of 1.2%, with a smaller decrease in unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Flynn. These projections estimate national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Flynn's current employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates Flynn SA2 had a median income of $72,527 and an average income of $80,037. These figures are significantly higher than the national median income of $72,206 and average income of $85,981 in the Australian Capital Territory. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.26% since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest a median income of approximately $79,243 and an average income of $87,448 as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Flynn rank highly nationally, between the 89th and 94th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income distribution data shows that 31.4% of locals (1,157 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, similar to the surrounding region where 34.3% occupy this range. Economic strength is evident with 45.2% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting increased consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 88.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Flynn is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Flynn, as per the latest Census evaluation, 96.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 3.5% being other types such as semi-detached homes and apartments. This is in contrast to the Australian Capital Territory's dwelling composition, which was 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Flynn had a home ownership rate of 34.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.6% and rented ones at 15.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,080. The median weekly rent in Flynn was $481, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $450. Nationally, Flynn's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Flynn features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.1% of all households, including 41.8% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.9%, with lone person households at 15.9% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Flynn exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Flynn trail regional benchmarks, with 37.5% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 46.8% in SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 10.4% and graduate diplomas at 4.6%. Trade and technical skills are also prominent, with 31.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 19.8%. Educational participation is notably high, with 31.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.3% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 5.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 20 active transport stops in operation within Flynn. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 64 individual routes. They facilitate 4,435 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 174 meters from the nearest stop. As primarily residential, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode at 93%.

Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average. Only 13.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census). Service frequency averages 633 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 221 weekly trips per stop.

Health outcomes in Flynn are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average health outcomes in Flynn, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 9.6% and 8.4% of residents respectively. 67.4% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across Australian Capital Territory. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (2,193 people), which compares to 62.4% across Australian Capital Territory. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 17.5% of residents aged 65 and over (646 people), which is higher than the 14.3% in Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Flynn records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Flynn's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 20.4% born overseas and 13.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Flynn, accounting for 45.1%. While Judaism comprises only 0.2%, this is an overrepresentation compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 0.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (27.3%), Australian (25.8%), and Irish (10.0%). Notably, Welsh (1.0%) is overrepresented in Flynn versus the regional average of 0.6%, as are Polish (0.9% vs 0.8%) and Spanish (0.6% vs 0.5%).

Flynn's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Flynn's median age is 37 years, slightly older than Australian Capital Territory's 35 but aligned with Australia's national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group represents 14.8% of Flynn's population compared to Australian Capital Territory. The 25-34 age cohort makes up 12.8%. From 2021, the 75-84 age group has grown from 4.8% to 5.9%, while the 85+ cohort increased from 0.8% to 1.8%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group declined from 13.3% to 11.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial changes in Flynn's demographics. The 85+ age cohort is projected to increase by 13 people (21%) from 67 to 81. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 100% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 75-84 and 0-4 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.