Spence

Spence has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Spence's population was around 2,587 as of 2021 Census. As of Nov 2025, the population is estimated at 2,521, reflecting a decrease of 66 people (2.6%) since the 2021 Census. This change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 2,521 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 2 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,658 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, contributing approximately 58.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, also with a 2022 base year. According to these projections, over this period, Spence's population is expected to decline by 280 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, notably the 85 and over age group, projected to increase by 24 people.

The level of residential development activity in Spence is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Spence has averaged approximately two new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, with 11 homes approved between FY21 and FY25. No dwellings have been approved in FY26 to date.

The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, providing good choice for buyers. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost of $224,000. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Spence has significantly less development activity, 85.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. This level is also below the national average, reflecting the area's maturity and potentially indicating planning constraints. New development in Spence consists of an equal split between standalone homes (50.0%) and medium to high-density housing (50.0%). This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and caters to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

This marks a considerable shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (92.0%), likely due to reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Spence reflects a highly mature market with approximately 1690 people per dwelling approval. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Spence may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Spence has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 15thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project expected to affect this region. Notable projects include Ginninderry Stage 3 - The Valley Release, Gold Creek Country Club Build-to-Rent (Gold Creek Golf Club Redevelopment), New Northside Hospital, and New Northside Hospital (North Canberra Hospital Redevelopment). Below is a list of those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Spence shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Spence has an educated workforce with 4.8% unemployment rate and 2.2% employment growth in the past year as of September 2025. It has 1,319 residents employed, with a 1.3% higher unemployment rate than Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) 3.6%.

Workforce participation is lower at 65.8%, compared to ACT's 69.6%. Dominant sectors include public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. However, public administration & safety has a lower representation at 25.6% versus the regional average of 30.4%.

Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data. Over September 2024 to September 2025, Spence's employment increased by 2.2%, labour force by 0.7%, reducing unemployment by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, ACT saw employment grow by 1.4%, labour force expand by 1.2%, and unemployment fall by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows ACT employment grew by 1.19% year-on-year, adding 710 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May-25 estimate national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Spence's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The Spence SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $66,021 and an average income of $74,628 in financial year 2022, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest ATO data. This compares with ACT figures of $68,678 and $83,634 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on a 13.6% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022 suggest median income will be approximately $75,000 and average income will be around $84,777. The 2021 Census shows Spence's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 86th and 87th percentiles nationally. Income distribution data indicates that 32.6% of residents (821 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income bracket, consistent with surrounding regions at 34.3%. Notably, 36.0% earn above $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, Spence residents retain 87.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Spence is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Spence, as per the latest Census evaluation, 92.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 7.5% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This compares to the Australian Capital Territory's figures of 69.4% houses and 30.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Spence stood at 33.2%, with mortgaged properties making up 46.1% and rented dwellings accounting for 20.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,120, higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure in Spence was $375, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $430. Nationally, Spence's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,120 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while median weekly rents were comparable at $375.

Spence has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 75.6% of all households, including 35.6% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.4%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Spence shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 34.6%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.8%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.6%) and graduate diplomas (5.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 31.8% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (20.2%). Educational participation is high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.1% in primary, 8.6% in secondary, and 5.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 27 active transport stops in Spence, with a mix of buses operating. These stops are served by four individual routes, providing a total of 1,232 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 150 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 176 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 45 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Spence is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Spence faces significant health challenges, including common conditions prevalent across younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 56% (~1,424 people) of its total population has private health cover, a rate found to be very high. The most frequent medical conditions are mental health issues (affecting 10.9%) and asthma (9.4%), while 63.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 68.1% in the Australian Capital Territory. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 18.2% (458 people) of Spence's population, higher than the Australian Capital Territory's 15.3%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Spence ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Spence's population was found to be below average in cultural diversity, with 83.3% born in Australia, 93.5% being citizens, and 88.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 47.5% of Spence's population. Buddhism showed an overrepresentation, making up 1.5%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory average of 3.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (28.5%), English (26.7%), and Irish (10.2%). Notably, Scottish (8.9% vs regional 7.4%), Polish (0.9% vs 0.8%), and Welsh (0.7% vs 0.6%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Spence.

Spence's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

At age 38, Spence's median age is higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35, but equivalent to Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Spence has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (7.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.8%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the percentage of Spence's population aged 75 to 84 grew from 5.1% to 7.3%, while the 15 to 24 age group increased from 12.2% to 14.2%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 age cohort declined from 11.6% to 9.4%, and the 5 to 14 age group dropped from 14.0% to 11.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Spence's age profile will change significantly. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow by 55%, adding 20 residents to reach a total of 59. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 76% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 age groups are projected to experience population declines.