Spence

Spence has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Spence's population is around 2,521 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a decrease of 66 people (2.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,587 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 2,521 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 2 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,658 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 58.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections, with 2022 as a base, are adopted. Looking at population projections moving forward, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to decline by 280 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to increase by 24 people. See the age section for more details.

The level of residential development activity in Spence is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Spence has averaged around 2 new dwelling approvals annually, with 11 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 0 so far in FY-26. With population declining over recent years, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $224,000.

Relative to the Australian Capital Territory, Spence has significantly less development activity (85.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. This level is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. New development consists of 50.0% standalone homes and 50.0% medium and high-density housing. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 92.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 1690 people per dwelling approval, Spence reflects a highly mature market.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Spence may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Spence has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 20thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 1 single project has been identified by AreaSearch that is likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Ginninderry Stage 3 - The Valley Release, Gold Creek Country Club Build-to-Rent (Gold Creek Golf Club Redevelopment), New Northside Hospital, and New Northside Hospital (North Canberra Hospital Redevelopment), with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Spence recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Spence possesses a well-educated workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 5.4%, and 1.1% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 1,313 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.6% above the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.8%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (67.7% compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 72.6%). Based on Census responses, a low 12.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, public administration & safety shows lower representation at 25.6% versus the regional average of 30.4%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 1.1% while the labour force increased by 1.0%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. This compares to the Australian Capital Territory, where employment grew by 0.9%, the labour force expanded by 1.2%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Spence. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Spence's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The Spence SA2's income level is well above the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Spence SA2's median income among taxpayers is $69,559 and the average income stands at $76,762, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's figures of $72,206 and $85,981 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.26% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $76,000 (median) and $83,870 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Spence, between the 86th and 87th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 32.6% of residents (821 people), consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 34.3% in the same category. A significant 36.0% earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting pockets of prosperity that drive robust local economic activity. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Spence is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Spence, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 92.5% houses and 7.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to the Australian Capital Territory's 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Spence was well beyond that of the Australian Capital Territory, at 33.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (46.1%) or rented (20.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Australian Capital Territory average at $2,120, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $375, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $2,080 and $450. Nationally, Spence's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are comparable to the national figure of $375.

Spence has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 75.6% of all households, comprising 35.6% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.4%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.7 people is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Spence shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (34.6%) substantially below the SA4 region average of 46.8%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.6%) and graduate diplomas (5.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 31.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (20.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 27 active transport stops operating within Spence, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 98 individual routes, collectively providing 7,199 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 150 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 6% by bus. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A relatively low 12.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 1,028 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 266 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Spence is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Spence faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~1,436 people). This compares to 62.4% across the Australian Capital Territory.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 10.9% and 9.4% of residents, respectively, while 63.0% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 70.2% across the Australian Capital Territory. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 18.0% of residents aged 65 and over (452 people), which is higher than the 14.3% in the Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Spence ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Spence was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 83.3% of its population born in Australia, 93.5% being citizens, and 88.5% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Spence is Christianity, which makes up 47.5% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Buddhism, which comprises 1.5% of the population, compared to 3.0% across the Australian Capital Territory.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Spence are Australian, comprising 28.5% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 23.0%, English, comprising 26.7% of the population, and Irish, comprising 10.2% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Scottish is notably overrepresented at 8.9% of Spence (vs 7.3% regionally), Polish at 0.9% (vs 0.8%) and Welsh at 0.7% (vs 0.6%).

Spence's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

At 38 years, Spence's median age is somewhat higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 while equivalent to the Australian median of 38. Relative to the Australian Capital Territory, Spence has a higher concentration of 75 - 84 residents (7.7%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (10.7%). Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.1% to 7.7% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 12.2% to 14.2%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 11.6% to 8.7% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 14.0% to 11.7%. Demographic modeling suggests Spence's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 85+ cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 51%, adding 19 residents to reach 59. Senior residents (65+) will drive 82% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. On the other hand, the 45 to 54 and 75 to 84 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.