Spence

Spence has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Spence's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, was approximately 2,521 as of November 2025. This figure reflects a decrease of 66 individuals, representing a 2.6% drop since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 2,587. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 2,521 in June 2024 and the addition of 2 validated new addresses post-Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,658 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth contributed approximately 58.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years beyond 2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, using 2022 as the base year. Population projections indicate an overall decline by 280 persons to 2041, with a projected increase of 24 individuals in the 85 and over age group.

The level of residential development activity in Spence is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Spence has averaged approximately two new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, with 11 homes approved between FY21 and FY25. As of FY26, there have been 0 approvals so far.

The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, providing good options for buyers. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $224,000. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Spence has significantly less development activity, 85.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Nationally, this level is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 50.0% standalone homes and 50.0% medium and high-density housing. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and caters to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 92.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Spence reflects a highly mature market with around 1690 people per dwelling approval. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Spence may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Spence has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 20thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project expected to affect the region: Ginninderry Stage 3 - The Valley Release, Gold Creek Country Club Build-to-Rent (Gold Creek Golf Club Redevelopment), New Northside Hospital, and New Northside Hospital (North Canberra Hospital Redevelopment). Details of projects likely to be most relevant are provided below.

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The employment landscape in Spence shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Spence has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.8% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.2%.

As of September 2025, 1,319 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.3% higher than the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.6%. Workforce participation in Spence was lower at 67.7%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 72.5%. According to Census responses, only 12.8% of residents worked from home. The dominant employment sectors were public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Construction showed strong specialization with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. However, public administration & safety had lower representation at 25.6% compared to the regional average of 30.4%. Limited local employment opportunities were indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 2.2%, labour force by 0.7%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.4 percentage points. In comparison, Australian Capital Territory saw employment grow by 1.4%, labour force expand by 1.2%, and unemployment fall by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Spence's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The median income among taxpayers in Spence SA2 was $69,559 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $76,762 during the same period. These figures were higher than those for the Australian Capital Territory, which had median and average incomes of $72,206 and $85,981 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.26% since financial year 2023, estimates suggest that by September 2025, the median income would be approximately $76,000 and the average income around $83,870. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Spence ranked highly nationally, between the 86th and 87th percentiles. Income distribution data showed that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominated with 32.6% of residents (821 people). This was consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region where 34.3% fell into the same category. Notably, 36.0% of Spence residents earned above $3,000 weekly, indicating prosperity and robust local economic activity. After housing costs, residents retained 87.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Spence is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As of the latest Census, Spence's dwelling structure comprised 92.5% houses and 7.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Australian Capital Territory had 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Spence was at 33.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.1% and rented ones at 20.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Spence was $2,120, higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,080. The median weekly rent figure in Spence was $375, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $450. Nationally, Spence's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,120 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were comparable at $375.

Spence has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 75.6% of all households, including 35.6% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.4%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5 people.

Spence shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 34.6%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.8%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.6%) and graduate diplomas (5.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 31.8% of residents aged 15+, including advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (20.2%). Educational participation is high, with 31.2% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.1% in primary, 8.6% in secondary, and 5.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Spence has 27 operational public transport stops, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops cater to 98 different routes, facilitating 7,199 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated highly, with residents located an average of 150 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 90%, while buses account for 6%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling stands at 1.6, surpassing the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 12.8% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 1,028 trips per day, equating to approximately 266 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Spence is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Spence faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is found to be very high at approximately 57% of the total population, which amounts to around 1,436 people. This compares to a rate of 62.4% across the Australian Capital Territory. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 10.9% and 9.4% of residents respectively. Conversely, 63.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across the Australian Capital Territory. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 18.2% of residents aged 65 and over, which totals 458 people, higher than the 14.1% in the Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Spence ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Spence's population was found to be below average in cultural diversity, with 83.3% born in Australia, 93.5% being citizens, and 88.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 47.5% of Spence's population. Buddhism, however, showed overrepresentation at 1.5%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory average of 3.0%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (28.5%), English (26.7%), and Irish (10.2%). Notably, Scottish ethnicity was overrepresented at 8.9% in Spence compared to the regional average of 7.3%, Polish at 0.9% versus 0.8%, and Welsh at 0.7% against 0.6%.

Spence's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Spence's median age is 38 years, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 but equivalent to Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Spence has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (7.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.8%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 5.1% to 7.3%, while the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 12.2% to 14.2%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has decreased from 11.6% to 9.4%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 14.0% to 11.9%. Demographic projections indicate significant changes in Spence's age profile by 2041, with the 85+ cohort showing the strongest growth at 55%, adding 20 residents to reach a total of 59. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 76% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 age groups are projected to experience population declines.