Gunbalanya

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gunbalanya reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Gunbalanya is estimated at around 1,697 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase from its 2021 Census population of 1,177 people, marking a growth of 520 individuals (44.2%). The latest resident population estimate of 1,694 by AreaSearch, following examination of the June 2024 ABS ERP data release and validation of two new addresses since the Census date, indicates this increase. This results in a density ratio of 3.3 persons per square kilometer. Gunbalanya's growth exceeded both national (9.9%) and state averages, positioning it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 51.0% to overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch applies growth rates by age cohort to each area, as provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Looking ahead, above median population growth is projected for Australia's non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, Gunbalanya is expected to grow by 215 persons, reflecting a decline of 3.6% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Gunbalanya when compared nationally

Gunbalanya averaged 3 approvals per year for residential developments between 2015 and 2019, resulting in a total of 18 dwellings over this five-year period. This low development activity is characteristic of rural areas like Gunbalanya, where housing needs are typically specific to the local community rather than driven by broader market demand. It should be noted that due to the small sample size, individual development projects can significantly impact annual growth and relativity statistics.

Compared to the rest of the Northern Territory, Gunbalanya has substantially lower development levels, and its development pattern is also below national averages. In terms of new building activity, 67% were detached dwellings while 33% were townhouses or apartments, indicating an expanding range of medium-density housing options that cater to various price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This shift reflects the reduced availability of development sites and addresses evolving lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Currently, 91% of dwellings in Gunbalanya are houses. The location has approximately 188 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market.

However, with population projections indicating stability or decline, housing demand pressures in Gunbalanya are expected to decrease, potentially benefiting potential buyers.

Gunbalanya has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 12thth percentile nationally

No changes have been identified by AreaSearch that could impact the area's performance. Key projects include Kakadu Tourism and Infrastructure Upgrades, Australia-Asia PowerLink (AAPowerLink), Northern Territory Freight Rail And Logistics Capacity Improvements, and Network Optimisation Program - Rail.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Gunbalanya performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Gunbalanya has a balanced workforce with equal representation of white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented in the area. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 1.1%.

The employment growth over the past year is estimated at 3.1%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. There are 561 residents currently employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.8%, which is below the Rest of NT's rate of 5.9%. Workforce participation in Gunbalanya lags significantly at 43.6% compared to the Rest of NT's 70.4%. According to Census responses, only 1.8% of residents work from home.

Employment among residents is concentrated in public administration & safety, education & training, and health care & social assistance sectors. The area has a notably high concentration in public administration & safety jobs, with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average. However, health care & social assistance has limited presence with only 10.8% of employment compared to the regional average of 18.8%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.1%, while labour force increased by 0.9%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment by 2.1 percentage points. In contrast, the Rest of NT saw a fall in employment by 1.3% and an increase in unemployment marginally during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, applying these projections to Gunbalanya's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.4% over five years and 11.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregated ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Gunbalanya had a median taxpayer income of $45,161 and an average of $60,283. These figures are below the national averages of $53,572 and $63,776 respectively in Rest of NT. Based on 8.44% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $48,973 (median) and $65,371 (average). Census data indicates household income ranks at the 18th percentile ($1,277 weekly), with personal income at the 0th percentile. The largest income segment is 35.1% earning $800 - $1,499 weekly (595 residents). Housing costs allow for retention of 94.6%, but disposable income ranks below average at the 31st percentile.

Gunbalanya is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Gunbalanya, as per the latest Census, 91.1% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 8.9% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This differs from Non-Metro NT's figures of 75.6% houses and 24.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gunbalanya stood at 1.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 0.0% and rented ones at 98.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $0, significantly lower than Non-Metro NT's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Gunbalanya was $70, substantially below Non-Metro NT's figure of $150 and the national average of $375. Nationally, mortgage repayments averaged $1,863.

Gunbalanya features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.8% of all households, including 44.5% couples with children, 18.1% couples without children, and 20.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 16.2%, with lone person households at 13.7% and group households making up 0.0%. The median household size is 4.6 people, which is larger than the Rest of NT average of 3.1.

Gunbalanya faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 8.5%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 5.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational pathways account for 23.5% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 3.8% and certificates at 19.7%. Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 14.7% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 1.2% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Gunbalanya is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Gunbalanya faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is relatively low, at approximately 51% of the total population of around 860 people, compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are heart disease and diabetes, affecting 6.3 and 5.4% of residents respectively. However, 79.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, slightly higher than the 78.4% across Rest of NT. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 3.9% of residents aged 65 and over (66 people), lower than the 8.3% in Rest of NT. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than those of the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Gunbalanya was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gunbalanya's cultural diversity is above average, with 2.8% of its population born overseas and 87.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Gunbalanya, comprising 33.4% of people. However, the most notable overrepresentation is in the 'Other' category, which makes up 1.5% of the population compared to 5.2% across the rest of the Northern Territory.

In terms of ancestry, Australian Aboriginal is the top group in Gunbalanya at 83.6%, substantially higher than the regional average of 43.6%. English ancestry comprises 5.4%, notably lower than the regional average of 14.3%. Australian ancestry makes up 2.7%, also notably lower than the regional average of 14.9%. Notably, Maori and Welsh ethnic groups are overrepresented in Gunbalanya at 1.0% and 0.5% respectively, compared to regional averages of 0.7% and 0.2%.

Gunbalanya hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Gunbalanya's median age is 27 years, which is significantly lower than the Rest of NT's 31 years and Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that the 35-44 year-olds are particularly prominent at 19.5%, while the 65-74 group is comparatively smaller at 2.7% compared to the Rest of NT. This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is well above the national average of 14.3%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 17.2% to 19.5%, while the 55 to 64 cohort increased from 7.2% to 8.8%. Conversely, the 15 to 24 cohort has declined from 17.7% to 15.8% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 18.0% to 16.4%. By 2041, Gunbalanya is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 45 to 54 group will grow by 22%, reaching 190 from 156. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 15 to 24 cohorts.