Gunbalanya

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gunbalanya reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Gunbalanya's population is estimated at around 2,081 people. This reflects an increase of 904 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,177 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population as 2,076 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 2 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4.1 persons per square kilometer. Gunbalanya's 76.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (8.9%). Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 51.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, growth rates by age cohort are applied to estimate post-2032 growth. Looking ahead, an above median population growth of Australia's non-metropolitan areas is projected, with Gunbalanya expected to grow by 272 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a decline of 18.8% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Gunbalanya when compared nationally

Gunbalanya has averaged approximately 5 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 27 homes. In FY-26 so far, 11 approvals have been recorded. This results in an average of 4.4 new residents per year for every home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a significant demand outpacing supply, which can put upward pressure on prices and increase competition among buyers. The average construction value of new dwellings is $477,000.

In this financial year, there have been $124,000 in commercial approvals, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the Rest of NT, Gunbalanya records 202.0% more construction activity per person. New development consists of 67.0% standalone homes and 33.0% attached dwellings, showing an expanding range of medium-density options across various price brackets. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 91.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 117 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, Gunbalanya should see reduced pressure on housing in the future, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Gunbalanya has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 5thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes are anticipated in the area at this time.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Gunbalanya performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Gunbalanya has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of 1.0% as of June 2025. The area experienced an estimated employment growth of 3.5% in the past year.

The unemployment rate is lower than the Rest of NT's rate by 4.8%, with workforce participation at 36.3%. Dominant employment sectors include public administration & safety, education & training, and health care & social assistance. Public administration & safety has high representation at 2.1 times the regional average, while health care & social assistance is lower at 10.8% compared to the regional average of 18.8%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census working population vs resident population comparison.

Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.5%, labour force by 0.9%, resulting in a 2.5 percentage point decrease in unemployment. In contrast, Rest of NT saw employment decline by 1.7% and labour force decline by 1.8%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (Sep-22) project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gunbalanya's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.4% over five years and 11.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localised population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Gunbalanya had a median taxpayer income of $45,161 and an average of $60,283 in financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of NT's median income being $51,655 and average income being $61,577. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $50,585 and average income will be around $67,523, based on a 12.01% growth in wages since financial year 2022. Census 2021 data shows Gunbalanya's household income ranks at the 18th percentile with weekly earnings of $1,277, while personal income is at the 0th percentile. Income distribution reveals that 35.1% of the population falls within the $800 - $1,499 range, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - $2,999 range dominates with 33.6%. Housing costs are manageable, with 94.6% retained, but disposable income is below average, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Gunbalanya is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Gunbalanya, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, comprised 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NT had 83.6% houses and 16.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gunbalanya was 1.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 0.0% and rented at 98.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $0, while the median weekly rent was $70. Nationally, mortgage repayments were $1,863 and rents were $375.

Gunbalanya features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 83.8% of all households, including 44.5% couples with children, 18.1% couples without children, and 20.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 16.2%, with lone person households at 13.7% and group households comprising 0%. The median household size is 4.6 people, larger than the Rest of NT average of 3.5.

Gunbalanya faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 8.5%, substantially lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 5.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational pathways account for 23.5% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 3.8% and certificates at 19.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.7% in primary, 8.4% in secondary, and 1.2% in tertiary education. Gunbalanya School serves the area, enrolling 218 students as of a certain date. The school's ICSEA score is 673, indicating varied educational conditions. All schools offer integrated K-12 education for academic continuity. There are 10.5 school places per 100 residents, below the regional average of 13.7, with some students possibly attending adjacent areas' schools.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Gunbalanya's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Gunbalanya with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (around 1,054 people), compared to 47.5% across the Rest of NT.

Heart disease and diabetes are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 6.3 and 5.4% of residents respectively. A total of 79.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 78.5% across the Rest of NT. The area has 3.5% of residents aged 65 and over (72 people), which is lower than the 9.4% in the Rest of NT. Health outcomes among seniors require particular attention despite being strong overall.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Gunbalanya was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gunbalanya had a higher than average cultural diversity, with 2.8% of its population born overseas and 87.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Gunbalanya, accounting for 33.4% of people. The 'Other' religious category comprised only 1.5%, significantly lower than the Rest of NT average of 6.9%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian Aboriginal was the highest represented group at 83.6%, substantially higher than the regional average of 64.6%. English and Australian followed with 5.4% and 2.7% respectively, the latter being notably lower than the regional average of 9.9%. Notably, Maori were overrepresented in Gunbalanya at 1.0% compared to the regional average of 0.4%, while Welsh were also overrepresented at 0.5% versus the regional average of 0.1%.

Gunbalanya hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Gunbalanya's median age is 27 years, which is significantly lower than the Rest of NT's 31 years and Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 35-44 are particularly prominent, making up 19.1% of the population, while those aged 65-74 make up only 2.5%. According to data from the post-2021 Census, the 35-44 age group has grown from 17.2% to 19.1%, and the 55-64 cohort has increased from 7.2% to 8.4%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has declined from 18.0% to 16.6%. By 2041, Gunbalanya's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 164%, reaching 11 people from the current 4. This demographic shift will be led by residents aged 65 and older, who are expected to represent 63% of the population growth. Meanwhile, both the 0-4 and 35-44 age groups are anticipated to decrease in number.