Carina (Qld)

Population growth drivers in Carina are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Carina (Qld) is around 12,574. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 11,678 people, marking a growth of 896 individuals or 7.7%. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, based on examination of the ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of new addresses since the Census date, is 12,531. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 2,910 persons per square kilometer, placing Carina in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area (7.3%), indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed around 76% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all migration drivers being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023, based on 2021 data, are used. However, these state projections lack age category splits; hence proportional growth weightings aligned with ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) are applied where utilised. Future population dynamics anticipate an increase just below the median of national statistical areas by 2041, with Carina expected to expand by 1,502 persons over this period, reflecting a total increase of approximately 11.4%.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Carina among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates that Carina has recorded approximately 87 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 437 homes. As of FY-26, 42 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.9 new residents are associated with each dwelling constructed annually between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting a balanced supply and demand dynamic. However, this figure has increased to 4.9 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential undersupply. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $559,000, which is slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments.

In FY-26, there have been approximately $18.3 million in commercial approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Relative to Greater Brisbane, Carina shows moderately higher building activity, with 31.0% more approvals per person over the past five years. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values.

Recent construction comprises 74.0% detached dwellings and 26.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes. New construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest, demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. With around 203 people per dwelling approval, Carina exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Future projections estimate that Carina will add approximately 1,439 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Carina has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects likely to affect the region. Notable ones include Shopping Centre Expansion at 789-805 Old Cleveland Road, Carina; Kensho Carina; Greendale Village Shopping Centre; and Retail, Community Use Centre & Place of Worship along Creek Road. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Carina demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Carina has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate is 3.0%, lower than the national average.

Over the past year, employment growth was estimated at 1.8%. As of June 2025, 7,234 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% below Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation is 68.9%, slightly higher than Greater Brisbane's 64.5%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services, with a specialization in the latter.

Manufacturing employs only 4.8% of local workers, below Greater Brisbane's 6.4%. Employment opportunities may be limited locally as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.8%, matching labour force growth and keeping unemployment stable at 3.0%. In contrast, Greater Brisbane experienced higher employment growth of 4.4% and a slight decrease in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carina's employment mix, local employment is expected to increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Carina has a median taxpayer income of $64,889 and an average income of $86,794 based on postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. Nationally, these figures are very high compared to Greater Brisbane's median income of $55,645 and average income of $70,520. As of September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $73,967 (median) and $98,936 (average), accounting for a 13.99% growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Carina are around the 74th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate that 34.0% of locals (4,275 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 category, similar to the broader metropolitan region where 33.3% are in the same category. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 69th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carina displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carina's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 54.7% houses and 45.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Brisbane metro had 71.2% houses and 28.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carina was at 26.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.1% and rented ones at 34.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carina was $2,000, below Brisbane metro's average of $2,200. The median weekly rent figure for Carina was $440, compared to Brisbane metro's $450. Nationally, Carina's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carina features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.6% of all households, including 28.5% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.4%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households comprising 4.7%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Carina shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Carina's educational attainment exceeds broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 37.6% hold university qualifications, compared to 25.7% in Queensland (QLD) and 30.4% nationally. Bachelor degrees are most common at 25.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.1%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (19.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 6.8% in tertiary education, and 5.9% pursuing secondary education. Carina's three schools have a combined enrollment of 1,800 students as of the latest data. The area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions, with an Index of Community Socio-Educational Advantage (ICSEA) score of 1089. Education provision is balanced, with two primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that Carina has 36 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are served by 21 different routes, together providing 3,294 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Carina is rated good, with residents located an average of 222 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 470 trips per day across all routes, which equates to around 91 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carina's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Carina residents show favourable health outcomes with low prevalence of common conditions among the general population, despite being higher than national averages for older, at-risk groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 62% (7,744 people), compared to Greater Brisbane's 63.9% and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 8.9% and 7.4% respectively, while 70.1% report no medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Brisbane's 72.4%.

The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 16.9% (2,125 people), compared to Greater Brisbane's 15.6%, requiring more attention for this demographic.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carina was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carina's cultural diversity was found to be above average, with 25.2% of its population born overseas and 15.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the main religion in Carina, comprising 52.4% of its population. However, Judaism was overrepresented, making up 0.1% compared to the regional average of 0.1%.

The top three represented ancestry groups were English (26.2%), Australian (23.8%), and Irish (10.1%). Notably, New Zealand (1.1%) was slightly overrepresented compared to the regional figure of 1.0%, while Russian (0.5%) and Korean (0.7%) showed no significant difference from their respective regional percentages.

Carina's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carina's median age is nearly 37 years, closely matching Greater Brisbane's average of 36 years and nearing Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Carina has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (17.6%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (10.9%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35-44 age group has increased from 16.5% to 17.6%, while the 0-4 cohort has decreased from 6.7% to 5.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Carina's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 57%, adding 462 residents to reach 1,267. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 59% of population growth, emphasizing demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 0-4 and 35-44 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.