Carina (Qld)

Population growth drivers in Carina are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Carina (Qld) is around 12,752, reflecting an increase of 1,074 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 9.2% rise from the previous population figure of 11,678. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2025 and validation of new addresses since the Census date, is 12,724. This results in a population density ratio of 2,951 persons per square kilometer, placing Carina in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area (8.1%), indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 76.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all migration drivers being positive factors.

For projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia figures released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year for SA2 areas covered by this data. For years post-2032 and areas not covered, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023 are used, with proportional growth weightings applied for age cohorts based on ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 using 2022 data. Considering these projections, the suburb is expected to experience a population increase just below the median of national areas by 2041, growing by an additional 1,308 persons over this period, reflecting a total increase of 10.0%.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Carina among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Carina shows around 87 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 437 homes. So far in FY-26, 52 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents per dwelling constructed has been 1.9 over these five years (FY-21 to FY-25), indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, this figure has recently intensified to 4.9 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $559,000, demonstrating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. There have also been $18.3 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Carina records somewhat elevated construction levels (31.0% above regional average per person over the five-year period), preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand.

Recent construction comprises 74.0% detached houses and 26.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (55.0% at Census), reflecting persistent strong demand for family homes amid densification trends. With around 203 people per dwelling approval, Carina shows characteristics of a growth area. Future projections show Carina adding 1,280 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate (as of Q2-2022). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Carina has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 20 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Shopping Centre Expansion at 789-805 Old Cleveland Road, Carina; Kensho Carina project; Greendale Village Shopping Centre development; and Retail, Community Use Centre & Place of Worship planned for Creek Road. The following list details those projects most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Carina ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Carina has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate is 2.7% and employment growth over the past year is estimated at 2.4%. As of December 2025, there are 7,416 residents employed with an unemployment rate of 1.5% below Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%.

Workforce participation is 72.1%, similar to Greater Brisbane's 69.6%. Home working is moderate at 23.7%, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services, with the latter being particularly strong at 1.2 times the regional level. Manufacturing has limited presence at 4.8% compared to 6.4% regionally.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data on working population vs resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 2.4% while labour force increased by 2.5%, keeping unemployment broadly flat. Greater Brisbane recorded higher growth in employment (3.2%) and a slight decrease in unemployment (-0.1%). Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Carina's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Carina had an extremely high national income level according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ended June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Carina was $64,889 and the average income stood at $86,794. These figures compared to those of Greater Brisbane, which were $58,236 and $72,799 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates for Carina would be approximately $72,260 (median) and $96,654 (average) as of March 2026. Census data revealed that incomes in Carina clustered around the 74th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicated that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captured 34.0% of the community, with a total of 4,335 individuals falling into this category. This figure was consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region, where 33.3% fell into the same income bracket. High housing costs consumed 16.0% of income in Carina, yet strong earnings placed disposable income at the 69th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Carina displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Carina's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 54.7% houses and 45.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Brisbane metro's 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carina stood at 26.7%, similar to Brisbane metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.1% and rented ones at 34.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than the Brisbane metro average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Carina was $440, compared to Brisbane metro's $380. Nationally, Carina's mortgage repayments were above the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Carina features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 68.6% of all households, including 28.5% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.4%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households comprising 4.7%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Carina shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Carina is notably higher than broader benchmarks. As of the latest data, 37.6% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 25.7% in Queensland (QLD) and 30.4% nationally. The most common university qualification is a Bachelor degree, held by 25.8% of residents. Postgraduate qualifications are held by 7.7%, and graduate diplomas by 4.1%.

Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 30.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding these. Advanced diplomas are held by 11.9%, and certificates by 19.0%. Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 6.8% in tertiary education, and 5.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carina has 36 active public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are served by 19 different routes, collectively providing 3249 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 222 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode at 83%, and bus at 9%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 23.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 464 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 90 weekly trips per stop.

Carina's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data for Carina residents shows positive outcomes with mortality rates and health conditions largely matching national benchmarks. Common health condition prevalence is low among the general population but higher among older, at-risk groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at 62% of the total population (7,853 people), compared to 55.8% in Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 8.9% of residents and asthma impacting 7.4%, with 70.1% reporting no medical ailments, compared to 69.2% in Greater Brisbane. Under-65 residents have better-than-average health outcomes. As of the latest data (2021), Carina has 16.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,104 people), higher than Greater Brisbane's 15.1%, but lower than the national average.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carina was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carina's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 25.2% born overseas and 15.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carina, accounting for 52.4% of its population. While Judaism comprises only 0.1%, this figure is equal to Greater Brisbane's percentage.

The top three ancestry groups are English (26.2%), Australian (23.8%), and Irish (10.1%). Notably, New Zealanders make up 1.1%, Russians 0.5%, and Koreans 0.7%, each higher than their respective regional percentages of 1.0%, 0.3%, and 0.5%.

Carina's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carina's median age is nearly 37 years, closely matching Greater Brisbane's average of 36 and approaching Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Carina has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (17.8%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.4%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35-44 age group has increased from 16.5% to 17.8%, while the 0-4 cohort has decreased from 6.7% to 5.6%. By 2041, Carina's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 51%, adding 393 residents to reach 1,171. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 57% of population growth, indicating demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 5-14 and 0-4 age groups are projected to experience population declines.