Carina (Qld)

Population growth drivers in Carina are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Carina (Qld) statistical area (Lv2) is around 12,574. This reflects an increase of 896 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,678. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 12,531 based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 421 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,910 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Carina (Qld) (SA2)'s growth rate of 7.7% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area at 7.3%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 76.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including interstate migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024 using a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are used. These state projections do not provide age category splits; hence proportional growth weightings aligned with ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort are applied where utilized. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Carina (Qld) (SA2) is expected to expand by 1,503 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 11.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Carina among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Carina has recorded around 87 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 437 homes. So far in FY-26, 48 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years (FY-21 to FY-25), there has been an average of 1.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed. However, recent data shows this has intensified to 4.9 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential undersupply in Carina's residential market.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $559,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This year (FY-26), there have been $18.3 million in commercial approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity in Carina. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Carina shows moderately higher building activity, recording 31.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years.

This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, although construction activity has eased recently. Recent construction comprises 74.0% detached dwellings and 26.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Carina's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. However, new construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (55.0% at Census), demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. With around 203 people per dwelling approval, Carina shows characteristics of a growth area. Future projections show Carina adding 1,440 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Carina has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include Shopping Centre Expansion at 789-805 Old Cleveland Road, Carina; Kensho Carina; Greendale Village Shopping Centre; and Retail, Community Use Centre & Place of Worship on Creek Road. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Carina demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Carina has an educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 2.9%.

Over the past year, it maintained relative employment stability. As of September 2025, there are 7,228 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% lower than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.0%. Workforce participation in Carina is 68.9%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 64.5%. The key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services.

Notably, the area has a high specialization in professional & technical services, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level. Manufacturing employs only 4.8% of local workers, compared to Greater Brisbane's 6.4%. The predominantly residential area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels in Carina increased by 0.3%, while labour force increased by 0.5%, causing a rise in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Brisbane experienced employment growth of 3.8% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a drop in unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. As of 25-November-25, Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01% (losing 1,210 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%, broadly in line with the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years, national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% and by 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carina's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Carina had a median taxpayer income of $64,889 and an average income of $86,794 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is notably higher than Greater Brisbane's median income of $58,236 and average income of $72,799. By September 2025, based on a 9.91% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimated incomes would be approximately $71,319 (median) and $95,395 (average). In Carina, as of the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes clustered around the 74th percentile nationally. The predominant income cohort spanned 34.0% of locals (4,275 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the broader metropolitan region at 33.3%. High housing costs consumed 16.0% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 69th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Carina displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Carina, as per the latest Census evaluation, 54.7% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 45.3% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This is compared to Brisbane's metropolitan area which had 71.2% houses and 28.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carina stood at 26.7%, lower than Brisbane metro's rate. Mortgaged dwellings comprised 39.1% and rented ones made up 34.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, below the Brisbane metro average of $2,200. Median weekly rent in Carina was $440 compared to Brisbane's $450. Nationally, Carina's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carina features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.6 percent of all households, including 28.5 percent couples with children, 26.6 percent couples without children, and 11.8 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.4 percent, with lone person households at 26.7 percent and group households comprising 4.7 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Carina shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Carina's educational attainment is notably higher than broader averages. Among residents aged 15+, 37.6% have university qualifications, compared to 25.7% in Queensland (QLD) and 30.4% nationally. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 25.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.1%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.9% of residents aged 15+ holding these qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 11.9% and certificates for 19.0%.

Educational participation is high in Carina, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 6.8% in tertiary education, and 5.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 36 active stops operating in Carina, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by 19 routes, facilitating 3,249 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents located an average of 222 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 464 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 90 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carina's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows relatively positive outcomes for Carina residents. Prevalence of common health conditions among the general population is quite low but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 62% of the total population (7,744 people) has private health cover, compared to 65.6% in Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 8.9% and 7.4% of residents respectively. 70.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.4% in Greater Brisbane. 16.9% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,125 people), higher than the 15.6% in Greater Brisbane.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carina was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carina's population showed cultural diversity with 25.2% born overseas and 15.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 52.4%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 0.1%.

The top three parental ancestry groups were English (26.2%), Australian (23.8%), and Irish (10.1%). Notably, New Zealanders were slightly overrepresented at 1.1% versus the regional 1.0%. Russians and Koreans showed no significant variation with 0.5% each in Carina and regionally.

Carina's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carina's median age is nearly 37 years, closely matching Greater Brisbane's average of 36 and nearing Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Carina has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (17.6%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (10.9%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35-44 age group has increased from 16.5% to 17.6%, while the 0-4 cohort has decreased from 6.7% to 5.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Carina's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 57%, adding 462 residents to reach 1,267. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 59% of population growth, reflecting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 0-4 and 35-44 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.