Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove

Population growth drivers in Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove's population is around 12,708 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,027 people (8.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,681 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,642 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 214 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 962 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove's 8.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (8.1%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 40.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and interstate migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence, where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Regarding demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to grow by 1,824 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 13.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove has seen around 86 new homes approved each year, with 431 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 42 so far in FY-26. With an average of 3.2 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand is significantly outpacing supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $290,000. Additionally, $88.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity.

When measured against Greater Brisbane, Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove has 77.0% more building activity (per person), offering buyers greater choice, though building activity has slowed in recent years. New building activity consists of 92.0% detached houses and 8.0% medium and high-density housing, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 337 people per dwelling approval, Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove shows a developing market.

Population forecasts indicate Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove will gain 1,758 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 10 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Ferny Grove Central - Mixed Use Development, Ferny Grove Station Car Park Upgrade, Ferny Hills Precinct Planning Project, and Great Western Super Centre Expansion & Renovation, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove possesses a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation and an unemployment rate of only 3.2%. As of December 2025, 6,729 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.9% below Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Brisbane's 71.2%. Based on Census responses, a high 27.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. The area shows particularly strong specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 2.4 times the regional level. Conversely, manufacturing shows lower representation at 2.9% versus the regional average of 6.4%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 3.2% while employment declined by 2.9%, resulting in the unemployment rate falling by 0.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Brisbane recorded employment growth of 3.2% and labour force growth of 3.0%, with unemployment falling 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove SA2's median income among taxpayers is $68,493, with an average of $81,759. This is extremely high nationally, and compares to Greater Brisbane's median of $58,236 and average of $72,799. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $75,281 (median) and $89,861 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove, between the 83rd and 92nd percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals the largest segment comprises 33.3% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (4,231 residents), mirroring the metropolitan region where 33.3% occupy this bracket. The substantial proportion of high earners (41.3% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout this suburb. After housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 93.4% houses and 6.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Brisbane metro's 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove was higher than that of Brisbane metro, at 29.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (45.9%) or rented (24.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Brisbane metro average at $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Brisbane metro's $1,863 and $380. Nationally, Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 87.3% of all households, comprising 48.0% couples with children, 27.8% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 12.7%, with lone person households at 11.7% and group households comprising 1.1% of the total. The median household size of 3.0 people is larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (34.4%) substantially below the SA4 region average of 47.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 22.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.1%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 34.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (21.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 10.1% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 34 active transport stops operating within Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 25 individual routes, collectively providing 1,901 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 360 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 82%, with 12% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 27.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 271 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 55 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (7,612 people), compared to 55.8% across Greater Brisbane.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.4% and 7.0% of residents, respectively, while 71.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 69.2% across Greater Brisbane. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 13.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,700 people), which is lower than the 15.2% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove is roughly in line with the wider region's average in terms of cultural diversity, with 78.3% of its population born in Australia, 91.7% being citizens, and 89.6% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove is Christianity, which makes up 50.4% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Hinduism, which comprises 1.7% of the population, compared to 2.2% across Greater Brisbane.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove are English, comprising 28.3% of the population, Australian, comprising 27.0% of the population, and Irish, comprising 9.1% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: South Australian is notably overrepresented at 1.0% of Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove (vs 0.6% regionally), Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.2%) and Welsh at 0.7% (vs 0.5%).

Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

At 37 years, Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove's median age is nearly matching the Greater Brisbane average of 36 while also very close to the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Brisbane, Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove has a higher concentration of 45 - 54 residents (15.6%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (9.5%). Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 11.7% to 14.3% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 3.4% to 4.9%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 17.1% to 15.1% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 10.7% to 9.5%. Demographic modeling suggests Upper Kedron - Ferny Grove's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 45 to 54 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 25%, adding 497 residents to reach 2,482. In contrast, both 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 age groups will see reduced numbers.