Manly - Lota

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly - Lota reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Manly - Lota's population is around 8,419 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 529 people (6.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,890 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,254 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 76 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,004 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Manly - Lota's 6.7% growth since the census positions it within 0.1 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.8%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. As we examine future population trends, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is expected, with the area expected to grow by 500 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 4.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manly - Lota recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Manly - Lota has experienced around 41 dwellings receiving development approval per year, with 206 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 220 so far in FY-26. Given an average of 1.7 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, though recent data shows this has intensified to 4.5 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential undersupply. New properties are constructed at an average value of $645,000, revealing that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Additionally, $8.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, supporting the area's residential character.

When measured against Greater Brisbane, Manly - Lota has slightly more development (17.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), balancing buyer choice with support for current property values, though development activity has moderated in recent periods. New development consists of 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points, from family homes to more affordable compact living. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 77.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 286 people per dwelling approval, Manly - Lota shows characteristics of a low density area.

Future projections show Manly - Lota adding 335 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Manly - Lota has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 4 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Royal Far West (RFW) Neighbourhood Development, The Wellington Collection, Manly Hotel Refurbishment, and Breeze On Berrima, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Manly - Lota ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Manly - Lota features a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.4%, and 5.3% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 4,860 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.8% below Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Brisbane's 71.2%. Based on Census responses, a high 26.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and professional & technical. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 13.3% versus the regional average of 16.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 5.3% alongside labour force increasing by 5.4%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. By comparison, Greater Brisbane recorded employment growth of 3.2%, labour force growth of 3.0%, with unemployment falling 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Manly - Lota. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Manly - Lota's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.6% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Manly - Lota SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $65,035 with the average level standing at $85,178. This is among the highest in Australia and compares to levels of $58,236 and $72,799 across Greater Brisbane respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $71,480 (median) and $93,619 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Manly - Lota cluster around the 69th percentile nationally. Looking at income distribution, the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 27.5% of residents (2,315 people), reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 33.3% similarly occupy this range. Economic strength emerges through 33.1% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 14.4% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 72nd percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Manly - Lota is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Manly - Lota, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 76.7% houses and 23.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Brisbane metro's 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Manly - Lota was well beyond that of Brisbane metro, at 36.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (36.9%) or rented (27.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Brisbane metro average at $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $410, compared to Brisbane metro's $1,863 and $380. Nationally, Manly - Lota's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Manly - Lota has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 70.4% of all households, comprising 31.8% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.6%, with lone person households at 27.5% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Manly - Lota shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile stands out regionally, with university qualification rates (33.1% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the SA4 region average of 23.7% and that of QLD (25.7%), reflecting the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees lead at 22.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 34.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (22.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 41 active transport stops operating within Manly - Lota, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 29 individual routes, collectively providing 1,942 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 197 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 84%, with 10% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A high 26.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 277 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Manly - Lota is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Manly - Lota, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 62% of the total population (5,186 people). This compares to 55.8% across Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.8% and 8.8% of residents, respectively, while 66.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 69.2% across Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 21.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,786 people), which is higher than the 15.2% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Manly - Lota ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly - Lota was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 76.2% of its population born in Australia, 88.3% being citizens, and 94.1% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Manly - Lota is Christianity, which makes up 53.1% of the population. This compares to 47.8% across Greater Brisbane.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Manly - Lota are English, comprising 32.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 26.8%, Australian, comprising 22.9% of the population, and Irish, comprising 11.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Scottish is notably overrepresented at 9.9% of Manly - Lota (vs 7.4% regionally), New Zealand at 1.1% (vs 1.0%) and French at 0.8% (vs 0.5%).

Manly - Lota hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

With a median age of 45, Manly - Lota notably exceeds the Greater Brisbane figure of 36 and substantially exceeds the national norm of 38. The 55 - 64 age group shows strong representation at 14.9% compared to Greater Brisbane, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 6.8%. Following the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.2% to 8.3% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 10.3% to 11.8%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 13.5% to 12.4% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 7.9% to 6.8%. Demographic modeling suggests Manly - Lota's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 116% (236 people), reaching 441 from 204. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those 65+ comprising 73% of projected growth. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.