Manly - Lota
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manly - Lota reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Manly-Lota's population is approximately 8,416 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 526 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 7,890. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,254 in June 2024 and the addition of 75 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,003 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Manly-Lota's growth rate of 6.7% since the 2021 census surpassed the SA3 area's growth rate of 6.4%, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings aligned with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 using 2022 data as the base year. Future population projections indicate a slight increase below the median of national areas, with Manly-Lota expected to grow by approximately 500 persons to reach a total population of around 8,916 by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of about 4.0% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manly - Lota recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Manly - Lota averaged approximately 41 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with a total of 206 homes approved during this period. In FY-26, up to May, 212 dwellings have been approved. On average, 1.7 new residents per year arrived for each new home over the past five financial years. However, this figure has increased to 4.5 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating growing demand and tightening supply.

The average value of new homes being built is $645,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment. This year, $8.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Manly - Lota has shown moderately higher building activity, with 17.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. Recent construction comprises 57.0% detached dwellings and 43.0% medium and high-density housing, offering a blend of attached housing types at varying price ranges.

This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 77.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse housing options. The location has approximately 286 people per dwelling approval, suggesting room for growth. By 2041, Manly - Lota is projected to grow by 338 residents. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Manly - Lota has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 26thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects expected to impact the area. Key projects are The Wellington Collection, Royal Far West (RFW) Neighbourhood Development, Manly Hotel Refurbishment, and Chestnut Residence. Below is a list detailing those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market strength in Manly - Lota positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Manly-Lota has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate in the area is 2.2%, lower than Greater Brisbane's 4.1%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.9%. As of June 2025, there are 4718 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.8% below Greater Brisbane's rate. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Brisbane's 64.5%.

The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and professional & technical services. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented in Manly-Lota compared to Greater Brisbane, with only 13.3% of the workforce employed in this sector versus 16.1% in Greater Brisbane. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data analysis. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 4.9%, labour force increased by 4.4%, and unemployment fell by 0.5 percentage points. These changes are similar to Greater Brisbane's employment growth of 4.4% and labour force expansion of 4.0%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Manly-Lota's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Manly - Lota's median income among taxpayers was $62,301 and average income stood at $80,647 in financial year 2022. These figures are higher than Greater Brisbane's median of $55,645 and average of $70,520 respectively. By September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $71,017 and average income is around $91,930, based on a 13.99% growth from financial year 2022 as per the Wage Price Index. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Manly - Lota cluster around the 70th percentile nationally. The largest earnings segment comprises 27.5% of residents earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly. This is similar to the broader area where 33.3% fall into this bracket. Economic strength is evident with 33.1% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000. Housing accounts for 14.4% of income, and residents rank within the 72nd percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Manly - Lota is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Manly-Lota's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 76.7% houses and 23.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Brisbane metro's 78.0% houses and 22.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manly-Lota stood at 36.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.9% and rented ones at 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, exceeding Brisbane metro's average of $2,100. The median weekly rent figure in Manly-Lota was $410, compared to Brisbane metro's $420. Nationally, Manly-Lota's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $410 than the national figure of $375.

Manly - Lota has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 70.4% of all households, including 31.8% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 29.6%, with lone person households at 27.5% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Manly - Lota shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Manly - Lota's university qualification rate of 33.1% exceeds the SA4 region average of 23.7% and Queensland's state average of 25.7%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 22.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 34.9% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.6% and certificates at 22.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education. The area's four schools have a combined enrollment of 1,581 students. Manly - Lota has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1070). It consists of three primary schools and one K-12 school. School capacity is higher than typical residential needs, with 18.8 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 13.6, indicating that the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 41 active stops operating in Manly-Lota area, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 26 individual routes, collectively facilitating 1895 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 197 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 270 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 46 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Manly - Lota is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Manly - Lota faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (5,032 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.8 and 8.8% of residents respectively. 66.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 69.4% across Greater Brisbane. The area has 20.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,722 people), which is higher than the 16.7% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Manly - Lota ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Manly-Lota was found to have a below average cultural diversity, with 76.2% of its population born in Australia, 88.3% being citizens, and 94.1% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Manly-Lota is Christianity, comprising 53.1% of the population, compared to 52.5% across Greater Brisbane. In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups are English (32.2%), Australian (22.9%), and Irish (11.5%).

Notably, Scottish ancestry is overrepresented in Manly-Lota at 9.9%, compared to 8.4% regionally, while French ancestry stands at 0.8%, versus 0.6% regionally, and New Zealand ancestry is at 1.1%, compared to 1.3%.

Manly - Lota hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Manly-Lota has a median age of 45, which is higher than Greater Brisbane's figure of 36 and the national norm of 38. The age group of 55-64 makes up 14.9% of Manly-Lota's population, compared to Greater Brisbane. Meanwhile, the 25-34 cohort comprises only 7.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.2% to 8.0%, while the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 10.3% to 11.7%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 13.5% to 12.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Manly-Lota's age profile. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 123%, reaching 441 people from 197. This growth will be led by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 75% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.