Thorneside

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thorneside reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Thorneside's estimated population as of November 2025 is around 4,034, reflecting a 157 person increase since the 2021 Census. The resident population was estimated at 4,028 by AreaSearch following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and validation of five new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,510 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Thorneside has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.5%, outpacing its SA3 area. Natural growth contributed approximately 53.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. For projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area.

Post-2032 and for areas not covered by this data, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are used, applying proportional growth weightings from ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Future demographic trends anticipate lower quartile growth, with the Thorneside statistical area (Lv2) expected to expand by 89 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 2.1% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thorneside according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thorneside has recorded approximately 11 residential properties granted approval per year. Between financial years FY21 and FY25, around 57 homes were approved, with an additional 8 approved in FY26 so far.

On average, each dwelling accommodates about 2 new residents annually over the past five financial years. The average construction cost of new homes is $385,000, which is higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Thorneside has 14.0% lower construction activity per person and ranks at the 28th percentile nationally, indicating relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes. Recent building activity consists solely of detached dwellings, maintaining Thorneside's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

Developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests, indicating strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. With around 573 people per approval, Thorneside shows a mature, established area. Future projections estimate an addition of 83 residents by 2041 at current development rates, suggesting that new housing supply should comfortably meet demand and provide good conditions for buyers while potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Thorneside has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. One major project identified by AreaSearch could impact the area: Eastwood Birkdale, Redland Hospital Expansion, Redlands Coast Smart and Connected City Strategy, and Cleveland Line Duplication (Park Road to Cleveland) are key projects. Most relevant details are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Thorneside shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Thorneside has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.3%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.9% based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, there are 2,309 residents in work and the unemployment rate is 0.6% below Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.0%. Workforce participation is equal to Greater Brisbane's rate of 64.5%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Thorneside shows strong specialization in construction with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Accommodation & food has limited presence with 4.6% employment compared to 6.7% regionally. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. In a 12-month period, employment increased by 5.9% alongside labour force increasing by 6.0%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. Greater Brisbane recorded employment growth of 3.8%, labour force growth of 3.3%, and unemployment falling 0.5 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows QLD employment contracted by 0.01% (losing 1,210 jobs) with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Thorneside. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Thorneside's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Thorneside had a median income among taxpayers of $55,492. The average income stood at $66,152. Nationally, the median and average incomes were $58,236 and $72,799 respectively in Greater Brisbane. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Thorneside would be approximately $60,991 (median) and $72,708 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, personal income in Thorneside ranks at the 54th percentile with weekly earnings of $827. Household income sits at the 35th percentile. In terms of income distribution, 30.1% of locals (1,214 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the regional pattern where 33.3% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 82.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 34th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Thorneside displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Thorneside's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 63.6% houses and 36.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Brisbane metro's 83.0% houses and 17.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thorneside was at 34.0%, similar to Brisbane metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.8% and rented ones at 29.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,787, lower than Brisbane metro's $1,950. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $370, compared to Brisbane metro's $405. Nationally, Thorneside's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Thorneside has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.0% of all households, consisting of 24.8% couples with children, 26.4% couples without children, and 15.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.0%, with lone person households at 29.6% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Thorneside exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Thorneside trail residents aged 15+ with university degrees comprise 22.4%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 16.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials, held by 41.0% of residents aged 15+, include advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (29.1%). Educational participation is high with 26.3% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (10.0%), secondary (7.7%), and tertiary (3.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thorneside has 26 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 26 different routes, collectively facilitating 1,651 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 184 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency is high, with approximately 235 trips per day across all routes, translating to about 63 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Thorneside is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Thorneside faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 53% of the total population (~2,154 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Brisbane's 55.9%.

Mental health issues impact 10.2% of residents, while arthritis affects 8.8%. A total of 64.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 66.8% across Greater Brisbane. The area has 22.4% of residents aged 65 and over (903 people), higher than the 20.0% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Thorneside ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thorneside's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 78.5% of its population born in Australia, 89.8% being citizens, and 93.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Thorneside, comprising 48.1% of people, compared to 53.3% across Greater Brisbane. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.1%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (9.1%).

Notably, New Zealanders were overrepresented at 1.2%, Russians at 0.6%, and French at 0.7%.

Thorneside's median age exceeds the national pattern

Thorneside has a median age of 41, which is higher than Greater Brisbane's figure of 36 and Australia's figure of 38. The 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented in Thorneside at 12.3%, compared to the Greater Brisbane average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 9.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 5.2% to 7.8% of the population, and the 15-24 cohort has increased from 9.2% to 10.8%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort has declined from 12.4% to 9.9%, and the 55-64 group has dropped from 13.3% to 11.7%. Demographic modeling suggests that Thorneside's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 85+ age cohort is projected to surge dramatically, expanding by 201 people (217%) from 92 to 294. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 92% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 5-14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.