Thorneside

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thorneside reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Thorneside's population, as estimated by AreaSearch based on ABS updates and new addresses validated since the 2021 Census, is around 4,030 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 153 people from the previous population count of 3,877 in 2021, marking a 3.9% growth. AreaSearch's estimation of 4,028 residents is derived from examining the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional five validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density in Thorneside stands at 1,509 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, ending in 2021, the suburb of Thorneside exhibited a compound annual growth rate of 0.5%, outperforming its SA3 area. Natural growth accounted for approximately 53.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

For population projections, AreaSearch follows ABS/Geoscience Australia's projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. Beyond 2032 and for areas not covered by this data, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023, based on 2021 data, are adopted. However, these state projections lack age category splits; thus, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings aligned with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 and based on 2022 data for each age cohort when utilizing them. Demographic trends suggest lower quartile growth in statistical areas analyzed by AreaSearch, with Thorneside expected to expand by 89 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 2.2% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thorneside according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thorneside has seen approximately 11 residential properties granted approval annually. Between Financial Year 2021 (FY-21) and FY-25, around 57 homes were approved, with a further 4 approved in FY-26 to date.

Each dwelling has accommodated an average of 2 new residents per year over the past five financial years, reflecting strong demand that supports property values. The average construction cost value of these dwellings is $385,000, which is below regional norms, indicating more affordable housing options. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Thorneside has shown 14.0% lower construction activity per person. Nationally, it ranks at the 28th percentile among assessed areas, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes.

This level reflects the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached dwellings, maintaining Thorneside's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (64.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. Thorneside has around 573 people per approval, indicating a mature, established area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Thorneside is projected to add 87 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Thorneside has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project that may impact the region: Eastwood Birkdale, Redland Hospital Expansion, Redlands Coast Smart and Connected City Strategy, and Cleveland Line Duplication (Park Road to Cleveland) are key projects. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Thorneside demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Thorneside has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.8% as of June 2025, which is 0.2% lower than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.9%. There are 2,253 residents currently employed, with workforce participation matching Greater Brisbane's figure of 64.5%. Key industries of employment among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction is particularly prominent, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, accommodation & food services have a limited presence at 4.6%, compared to the regional average of 6.7%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 3.9% alongside labour force growth of 4.3%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Brisbane recorded employment growth of 4.4% and a fall in unemployment by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Thorneside. These projections estimate national employment expansion at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Thorneside's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, although these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch aggregated ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Thorneside had a median taxpayer income of $55,492 and an average of $66,152. Nationally, the median was $55,645 and the average was $70,520. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $63,255 (median) and $75,407 (average), based on a 13.99% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. In 2021 Census figures, personal income ranked at the 54th percentile ($827 weekly), with household income at the 35th percentile. Income distribution showed 30.1% of locals (1,213 people) earning $1,500 - 2,999 per week, reflecting regional patterns where 33.3% fell within this range. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 34th percentile. Thorneside's SEIFA income rank placed it in the 5th decile.

Thorneside displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Thorneside's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 63.6% houses and 36.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Brisbane metro's 83.0% houses and 17.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thorneside was at 34.0%, with dwellings either mortgaged (36.8%) or rented (29.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,787, below Brisbane metro's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent figure was $370, compared to Brisbane metro's $405 and the national average of $375. Nationally, Thorneside's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863.

Thorneside has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.0% of all households, including 24.8% couples with children, 26.4% couples without children, and 15.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 33.0%, with lone person households at 29.6% and group households making up 3.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Thorneside exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Thorneside's residents aged 15+ have 22.4% with university degrees, compared to Greater Brisbane's 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are most common (16.0%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 41.0%, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (29.1%). Current educational participation is high at 26.3%, with 10.0% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 3.3% in tertiary education.

South East Brisbane Steiner School serves Thorneside with 31 students, having typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1040). The area has one primary-focused school; secondary options are available nearby. Local school capacity is limited at 0.8 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 13.2.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thorneside has 26 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by a mix of train and bus routes totalling 23 individual services. The combined weekly passenger trips across all these routes amount to 1,691.

The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest transport stop is 184 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility in the area. On average, there are 241 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 65 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Thorneside is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Thorneside faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 53% of its total population (~2,152 people) has private health cover. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 10.2% of residents and arthritis impacting 8.8%. A total of 64.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 66.8% across Greater Brisbane. Thorneside has 22.4% of its residents aged 65 and over (902 people), which is higher than the 20.0% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors in Thorneside are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Thorneside ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thorneside, as per data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2016, showed a below average cultural diversity level with 78.5% of its population born in Australia, 89.8% being citizens and 93.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 48.1% of Thorneside's population, compared to 53.3% across Greater Brisbane. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.1%), Australian (27.9%) and Irish (9.1%).

Notably, New Zealanders made up 1.2%, Russians 0.6% and French 0.7%, all higher than their respective regional percentages of 1.2%, 0.3% and 0.5%.

Thorneside hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Thorneside has a median age of 41, which is higher than Greater Brisbane's figure of 36 and slightly higher than Australia's median age of 38. The 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented in Thorneside at 12.3%, compared to the Greater Brisbane average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 9.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 5.2% to 7.8% of the population, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 9.2% to 10.8%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 12.4% to 9.9%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 13.3% to 11.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Thorneside's age profile. The 85+ age cohort is projected to increase by 201 people (217%), from 92 to 294. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 92% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 5-14 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.