Thorneside
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thorneside reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Thorneside's population was around 4,034 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 157 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,877. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,028 in June 2024 and seven additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,510 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Thorneside has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.5%, outperforming its SA3 area. Natural growth contributed approximately 52.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024, based on 2022 data. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023, based on 2021 data, are used. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings aligned with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023, based on 2022 data, for each age cohort. Future population trends suggest lower quartile growth of statistical areas across the nation, with Thorneside expected to expand by 89 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 2.1% over the 17-year period based on the latest population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thorneside according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thorneside has averaged approximately 11 new dwelling approvals per year. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, showing 57 homes over the past five financial years from FY2021 to FY2025, and 4 so far in FY2026. On average, each dwelling built has resulted in around 2 new residents per year over these five financial years, indicating strong demand which supports property values.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected construction cost of $385,000, lower than regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Thorneside has 14.0% less new development per person, placing it among the 28th percentile nationally in terms of buyer options, which may strengthen demand for established properties. Recent development consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining Thorneside's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (64.0% at Census), reflecting persistent strong demand for family homes.

With around 585 people per dwelling approval, Thorneside reflects a highly mature market. Looking ahead, Thorneside is expected to grow by approximately 83 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Thorneside has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 34thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region. Key projects include Eastwood Birkdale, Wynnum Manly Lota Foreshores Master Plan, Redland Hospital Expansion, and Redlands Coast Smart and Connected City Strategy. Relevant projects are detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The employment environment in Thorneside shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Thorneside's workforce comprises skilled individuals with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.8% as of a certain period, with an estimated employment growth of 3.9% over the preceding year.

As of June 2025, 2,253 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 0.2% below Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation was on par with Greater Brisbane's 64.5%. The dominant employment sectors included health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Notably, construction showed high specialization with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, accommodation & food services had lower representation at 4.6% compared to the regional average of 6.7%. Limited local employment opportunities were indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending a certain date, employment increased by 3.9% alongside labour force growth of 4.3%, causing an unemployment rate rise of 0.4 percentage points. Meanwhile, Greater Brisbane experienced employment growth of 4.4% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.4 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. State-level data to Sep-25 showed Queensland's employment contracted by 0.23% (losing 8,070 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%. This compared favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, but lagged behind national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 projected national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Thorneside's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Thorneside had a median taxpayer income of $55,492 and an average income of $66,152 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is slightly above the national average, compared to Greater Brisbane's median income of $55,645 and average income of $70,520. By March 2025, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $61,990 and an average income of $73,898, based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.71% since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census data shows personal income at the 54th percentile ($827 weekly) and household income at the 35th percentile. The largest income segment comprises 30.1% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,214 residents), aligning with regional trends where this cohort also represents 33.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 34th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Thorneside displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Thorneside's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 63.6% houses and 36.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Brisbane metropolitan area had 85.0% houses and 15.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thorneside was 34.0%, similar to Brisbane metro's level. Mortgaged dwellings constituted 36.8% and rented dwellings were 29.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,787, lower than Brisbane metro's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent figure in Thorneside was $370, compared to Brisbane metro's $405. Nationally, Thorneside's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Thorneside has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.0% of all households, including 24.8% couples with children, 26.4% couples without children, and 15.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.0%, with lone person households at 29.6% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Thorneside exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Thorneside has 22.4% of its residents aged 15+ with university degrees, compared to Greater Brisbane's 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 41.0% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 29.1%. Current educational participation is high at 26.3%, including 10.0% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 3.3% in tertiary education.

South East Brisbane Steiner School operates locally with 31 students enrolled. Thorneside has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1040) and balanced educational opportunities. It has one primary-focused school; secondary options are available nearby. Local school capacity is limited at 0.8 places per 100 residents, compared to the regional average of 13.2.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thorneside has 26 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 23 different routes, facilitating a total of 1,691 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 184 meters to the nearest stop.

The service frequency is 241 trips daily across all routes, translating to about 65 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Thorneside is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Thorneside faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 52%, leading that of the average SA2 area (~2,113 people).

This compares to 55.1% across Greater Brisbane. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues impacting 10.2% of residents, and arthritis affecting 8.8%. Sixty-four point two percent declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 66.8% across Greater Brisbane. Twenty-two point four percent of residents are aged 65 and over (903 people), higher than the 20.0% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Thorneside ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thorneside's population showed low cultural diversity, with 78.5% born in Australia, 89.8% being citizens, and 93.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, practised by 48.1%, compared to 53.3% in Greater Brisbane. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.1%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (9.1%).

Notably, New Zealanders made up 1.2% of Thorneside's population, higher than the regional average of 1.2%. Russians constituted 0.6%, slightly above the regional average of 0.3%, while Maori representation was 1.0%, compared to the regional average of 1.2%.

Thorneside's median age exceeds the national pattern

Thorneside has a median age of 41, which is higher than Greater Brisbane's figure of 36 and Australia's median age of 38. The 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented in Thorneside at 12.3%, compared to the Greater Brisbane average, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 9.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 5.2% to 7.8% of the population, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 9.2% to 10.8%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 12.4% to 9.9%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 13.3% to 11.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Thorneside's age profile will evolve significantly. The 85+ age cohort is projected to surge dramatically, expanding by 199 people (211%) from 94 to 294. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 93% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 5-14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.