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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Carina Heights has an estimated 7,529 residents, up from 6,884 at the 2021 Census — a change of 645 people, or 9.4%. Growth has averaged 1.5% a year over five years. Overseas migration accounts for 71.5% of that increase. That puts 2,214 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to research conducted by AreaSearch, approximately 7,529 people reside in Carina Heights as of Aug 2026. This represents an addition of 645 residents (9.4%) compared to the 6,884 people counted in the 2021 Census. The updated figure incorporates an estimated resident population count of 7,500 published by the ABS for June 2025 alongside 76 validated new addresses recorded following the Census. Consequently, population density stands at 2,214 persons per square kilometer, outpacing the national benchmark evaluated by AreaSearch. Furthermore, the local 9.4% expansion since the 2021 census outstripped the wider SA3 area figure of 8.1%, positioning the suburb as a primary regional growth driver.
Most of this inward growth stemmed from overseas migration, which made up roughly 71.5% of recent net demographic additions. For local SA2 territory projections, AreaSearch utilises the ABS/Geoscience Australia models published in 2024 (using 2022 as their baseline). Whenever an SA2 falls outside this dataset or extends past 2032, Queensland State Government SA2 series released in 2023 (anchored to 2021 data) are used instead. Because these state figures omit age-bracket breakdowns, AreaSearch scales cohorts according to the proportional weights in the 2023 ABS Greater Capital Region release based on 2022 data. Moving forward, demographic growth is tracking slightly underneath the median across comparative statistical zones, with the latest annual ERP baseline pointing toward an expansion of 864 persons by 2041, translating to an overall 11.1% gain throughout the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
129 new dwellings have been approved in Carina Heights over the past five years, an average of 25 a year. That places the area in the 51st percentile for residential development activity nationally, about 3 approvals per 1,000 residents a year. Of the 26 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 58% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Residential building approvals across Carina Heights have tracked at a pace of roughly 25 dwellings annually, representing 129 homes across the last 5 financial years. With about 4 people arriving each year per completed dwelling over the past 5 financial years (between FY-22 and FY-26), underlying demand substantially outpaces building activity, typically applying upward pressure on local pricing and spurring buyer competition. Newly approved residences carry an average construction valuation of $564,000, which sits above broader regional figures and underscores an emphasis on higher-specification builds. In addition, the current financial year has recorded $29.0 million in non-residential commercial approvals, highlighting healthy commercial construction activity.
Per capita building volumes in Carina Heights track at roughly 75% of the levels recorded across Greater Brisbane, placing the area in the 33rd percentile across the country and translating into tighter stock availability that reinforces interest in existing dwellings. The breakdown of recent residential construction shows detached houses making up 58.0% and attached configurations representing 42.0%, reflecting an increasing volume of medium-density development that supplies a varied spectrum of price points, ranging from standard standalone residences to cost-effective compact homes. With approximately 529 people per dwelling approval, the local residential sector demonstrates high maturity. According to the most recent quarterly calculation from AreaSearch, demographic forecasts anticipate Carina Heights expanding by 835 residents by 2041. Although current building pipelines are progressing at a steady rate alongside anticipated growth, purchasing conditions may tighten as resident numbers build.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Carina Heights
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 7 current infrastructure and development projects inside Carina Heights, worth an estimated $168 million. A further 96 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $9.86 billion. 17 are already under construction and 42 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, transport & logistics and communities, precincts & urban renewal. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Community performance and local economic trends are substantially shaped by regional infrastructure enhancements, major projects, and public planning decisions. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects with the capacity to influence the local area. Notable undertakings include Greendale Village Shopping Centre, Aveo Parkside Carindale Redevelopment, Belmont Private Hospital Expansion, and Fairway Carindale Stage 2, with key developments highlighted in the accompanying details.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Shopping Centre Expansion - 789-805 Old Cleveland Road, Carina
Expansion and refurbishment of the Carina neighbourhood shopping centre into an open-air, four-storey complex delivered over two stages. The development, designed by WSA Architecture and planned by Place Design Group, includes new shops, food and drink outlets, office space, healthcare services, and indoor sport and recreation facilities. Stage 1 provides 181 car spaces (including 23 motorcycle) with the full two-stage build providing 441 spaces. The project maintains a local scale while significantly upgrading customer amenity and the streetscape along Old Cleveland Road.
Winstanley Street Medical Centre Development
Development of a four-storey commercial and medical facility spanning 2,833 sqm of gross floor area across three street frontages. The approved project includes dedicated healthcare suites, consulting spaces, professional offices, a neighbourhood supermarket, and ground-floor food and drink outlets serving Carina Heights and surrounding eastern Brisbane suburbs.
Jardin Collection - 31 Anzac Road Carina Heights
Jardin Collection is a boutique medium-density residential development at 31 Anzac Road, Carina Heights. The proposal includes a mix of contemporary apartments and townhomes featuring landscaped communal spaces and sustainable design elements. The development application is currently under assessment by Brisbane City Council.
Belmont Private Hospital Expansion
A $21 million expansion of Belmont Private Hospital. The project includes a new purpose-built women's centre for perinatal mood disorders, a new adolescent mental health ward, additional patient rooms, and new operating theatres. The expansion will increase the total number of beds by 35 to 185 to serve the growing healthcare needs of the eastern Brisbane region.
Fairway Carindale Stage 2
Second stage of Fairway Carindale featuring 76 luxury golf-side apartments across three mid-rise buildings. Part of the total 191 apartment retirement village development at Pacific Golf Club. Expected completion 2026.
Aveo Parkside Carindale Redevelopment
$280 million transformation of a 38-year-old retirement village into a modern multi-storey community with 405 independent living apartments and a privately owned 140-bed residential care facility across six stages. Features resort-style amenities and is close to Westfield Carindale.
Greendale Village Shopping Centre
A local retail development comprising a 3,359sqm supermarket, 2,496sqm of specialty shops, food and drink outlets, and health care services. The project includes 306 car parking spaces and significant landscaping on a 2.106ha site. Originally approved in 2008, the development has faced extensive delays, including the 2022 insolvency of a previous contractor. In 2025, the Planning and Environment Court granted a fifth extension to the currency period, allowing the developer until March 2027 to commence construction.
Retail, Community Use Centre and Place of Worship - Creek Road
Proposed mixed-use development by The Salvation Army involving a four-stage rollout at 1529 Creek Road. The project includes a shop, community care centre, and a place of worship. The design features a two-storey community building, 105 car parking spaces, and extensive landscaping, replacing the existing single-storey buildings on the site to better serve the Carina community.
4,518 residents of Carina Heights are employed, from a labour force of 4,751. Unemployment sits at 4.9%, with participation at 75.3%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 7.0% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 5,750, about 76% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Carina Heights has a highly qualified local labour pool featuring strong concentrations in professional sectors, an unemployment rate standing at 4.9%, and a 5.4% expansion in employment over the preceding year. As of March 2026, employed locals total 4,518, while the jobless rate sits 0.6% above the 4.3% benchmark for Greater Brisbane, supported by an elevated labour participation rate of 75.3% versus 70.1% across Greater Brisbane. Census records indicate that 24.2% of workers operated from home, though this figure reflects conditions during Covid-19 pandemic restrictions. Local workforce engagement centres primarily on health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical.
Concentration is particularly pronounced in professional & technical, where local representation is 1.2 times that of the regional average. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing accounts for merely 4.0% of local employment, falling short of Greater Brisbane's 5.6%. Due to its predominantly residential character, the suburb provides relatively few on-site jobs, as evidenced by comparing resident workers with the total Census working population situated within the boundary. Analysis of SALM and ABS data by AreaSearch indicates that employment rose by 5.4% and the labour force grew by 4.9% during the year to March 2026, which led to a 0.4 percentage point decrease in the unemployment rate. Greater Brisbane showed a different pattern with employment growing by 3.2% and the labour force increasing by 3.4%, resulting in a 0.1 percentage point increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Mar-26 provide additional context for potential future demand in Carina Heights. These projections span five and ten-year periods and were overlaid with the local employment profile to estimate growth trends. National employment is expected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though sector-specific rates vary considerably. Applying those sectoral projections to Carina Heights's current employment mix suggests local employment should rise by 7.0% over five years and 14.3% over ten years. This calculation uses a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not incorporate localised population projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Carina Heights is $1,993 a week (about $104,000 a year), with median personal income at $977 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $65,491 a year against an average of $86,037. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Aggregated ATO data from AreaSearch for financial year 2023 highlights elevated income benchmarks for the Carina Heights SA2 relative to national figures. Taxpayers in the Carina Heights SA2 recorded a median income of $65,491 and an average income of $86,037, contrasting with $58,236 and $72,799 across Greater Brisbane. Accounting for an 11.36% rise in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023, updated estimates reach roughly $72,931 (median) and $95,811 (average) as of March 2026. Across household, family, and individual brackets, Census earnings metrics position the suburb near the 70th percentile across the country.
In terms of earnings tiers, 34.3% of individuals (2,582 individuals) sit in the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, closely tracking the 33.3% regional benchmark. While accommodation expenses absorb 16.3% of earnings, robust pay levels maintain disposable income at the 64th percentile and place the suburb in the 7th decile on the SEIFA income index.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Carina Heights had 2,801 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 54% detached houses and 6% apartments. 35% are owned with a mortgage, 42% rented and 23% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $400 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,950 a month. Rent absorbs 20.1% of household income here and mortgage repayments 22.6%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the most recent Census, the local housing stock consisted of 53.8% houses and 46.3% other dwellings (incorporating townhouses, flats, and secondary formats), contrasting with Brisbane metro where 73.5% were houses and 26.5% were other dwellings. Fully owned homes accounted for 23.4% of properties, trailing the broader metro benchmark, while remaining dwellings were held under mortgages (34.9%) or leased by tenants (41.8%). Typical monthly mortgage commitments stood at $1,950, above the Brisbane metro mark of $1,863, while weekly median rental payments were $400, higher than the Brisbane metro figure of $380.
Compared with nationwide figures, local monthly loan repayments exceed the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents surpass the national rate of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Carina Heights counted 2,801 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 3,063 today, averaging 2.3 people each. 25% are couples with children, against 27% couples without children. 26% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.3 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families constitute the majority of local living arrangements at 67.7% of all households, consisting of 25.2% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 14.1% single parent families. Non-family arrangements account for the remaining 32.3%, split between single-occupant homes at 26.1% and group households at 6.2%. The typical household size is 2.3 people, which is lower than the Greater Brisbane median of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
38.9% of adults in Carina Heights hold a university qualification, including 26.6% with a bachelor degree and 8.4% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 19.1% hold a vocational qualification. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Tertiary credentials are substantially more prevalent in Carina Heights than across wider geographic areas, with 38.9% of persons aged 15+ holding a higher education degree compared to 25.7% in QLD and 30.4% across Australia, equipping the local community well for knowledge-intensive industries. Bachelor degrees make up the largest share at 26.6%, alongside postgraduate qualifications at 8.4% and graduate diplomas at 3.9%. In addition, technical and vocational training is widely held, with 30.8% of individuals aged 15+ possessing vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (19.1%). Participation in formal learning is substantial across the suburb, with 28.0% of the populace engaged in an educational course.
Broken down by tier, this comprises 7.9% in tertiary education, 7.8% in primary education, and 6.1% in secondary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Getting around Carina Heights means driving: households keep an average of 1.2 vehicles, and no scheduled public transport appears in the current timetable feeds. Service data is built from operators' published GTFS timetables; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
68.7% of residents in Carina Heights report no long-term health condition. 5.2% need daily assistance with core activities, and 62.0% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 3.8 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health indicators in Carina Heights track favourably against broader averages, as determined by AreaSearch's review of mortality and long-term health issues; general incidence of chronic illnesses is subdued across the wider population, though older and vulnerable groups exhibit elevated rates compared to the national average. Private health insurance participation is notably high, covering approximately 62% of all residents (4,667 people), higher than the 55.8% seen across Greater Brisbane and the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and asthma represent the most widespread medical conditions reported locally, affecting 10.6 and 8.1% of residents respectively, while 68.7% reported having no diagnosed health conditions, alongside 69.2% in Greater Brisbane.
Working-age cohorts exhibit standard health trends. Older residents aged 65 and over comprise 13.6% of the population (1,020 people), below the 15.0% proportion in Greater Brisbane, and although health challenges are more pronounced among this senior demographic, overall indicators remain lower nationally relative to the broader population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
27.4% of Carina Heights residents were born overseas and 19.3% speak a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (24.8%) and Australian (21.9%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity in Carina Heights is greater than in the majority of comparable areas, with 27.4% of residents born abroad and 19.3% speaking a language other than English in their households. Christianity is the most common religious affiliation, followed by 50.4% of the population. The most prominent positive variation relative to broader trends occurs with Buddhism, which is observed among 2.0% of residents, matching the 2.0% recorded across Greater Brisbane. Regarding ancestral backgrounds based on parents' country of birth, the primary ancestries reported are English at 24.8%, Australian at 21.9%, and Other at 10.1%.
Certain individual backgrounds show distinct local concentrations, with Russian representing 0.7% of the suburb (compared to 0.3% regionally), New Zealand at 1.2% (against 1.0%), and Spanish accounting for 0.7% (relative to 0.4%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Carina Heights is 36. 30.3% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The local population displays a younger demographic structure than Greater Brisbane overall. As of August 2026, adults aged 25 - 44 represent 34.5% of the community versus 30.6% across Greater Brisbane, whereas younger residents aged 0 - 24 comprise 27.4% compared to 31.8% regionally. The estimated median age in August 2026 is 36, identical to the 2021 Census result and in line with the 36 years recorded across Greater Brisbane in that Census. The most noticeable demographic shift since the Census occurred in the 0 - 24 bracket, which declined from 28.6% to 27.4%.
Looking ahead to 2041, senior cohorts aged 65+ are projected to experience the strongest numerical expansion, increasing by 476 (47%) to reach 1,497, while the 25 - 44 bracket is anticipated to decrease.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Carina Heights
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Oct 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Oct 2026 this month headline measures · Sep 2026 baseline |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Oct 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Sep 2026 last month all 7 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Sep 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 76 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (6,884 at the 2021 Census → 7,529 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (303011050). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.