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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Carina Heights has an estimated 7,529 residents, up from 6,884 at the 2021 Census — a change of 645 people, or 9.4%. Growth has averaged 1.5% a year over five years. Overseas migration accounts for 71.5% of that increase. That puts 2,214 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to AreaSearch, the population of Carina Heights is approximately 7,529 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 645 people (9.4%) from the 6,884 residents recorded in the 2021 Census. This population shift is calculated using the ABS June 2025 estimated resident population of 7,500 and 82 validated new addresses registered since the Census. The population density stands at 2,214 persons per square kilometer, which exceeds the typical average for national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 9.4% growth rate since the 2021 census outpaced both the SA3 area (8.1%) and the national benchmark, establishing it as a local growth leader.
Overseas migration was the primary driver of this demographic expansion, accounting for roughly 71.5% of the total population gains in recent times. AreaSearch utilizes ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a 2022 base year for each SA2 region. In instances where SA2 regions lack this data, and for periods after 2032, projections from the Queensland State Government released in 2023 and based on 2021 numbers are implemented. Since these state-level projections omit age breakdowns, AreaSearch distributes growth across age brackets using proportional weightings derived from the 2023 ABS Greater Capital Region projections based on 2022 data. Looking forward, the area is projected to experience population growth slightly below the national median, expanding by 868 persons by 2041 relative to the latest annual ERP statistics, which represents an overall growth of 11.1% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
155 new dwellings have been approved in Carina Heights over the past five years, an average of 31 a year. That places the area in the 58th percentile for residential development activity nationally, about 4 approvals per 1,000 residents a year. Of the 24 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 54% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 9, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Carina Heights averages approximately 31 residential approvals per year, with 155 homes approved during the last 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 9 approvals registered so far in FY-26. Because the last 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) saw an average of 3.4 new residents for every finished dwelling, demand is outstripping supply, creating upward pressure on prices and intensifying buyer competition, while new builds carry an average construction value of $398,000—slightly above regional averages—pointing to a focus on quality. Furthermore, commercial approvals totaling $29.0 million have been documented during this financial year, reflecting a strong trend in commercial construction.
Carina Heights has about three-quarters the per capita rate of new dwelling approvals seen in Greater Brisbane, ranking in the 44th percentile of areas evaluated nationally, which restricts choices for buyers and reinforces demand for existing properties. Newly approved housing consists of 54.0% detached houses and 46.0% townhouses or apartments, presenting an increasing proportion of medium-density choices that span various price levels from traditional family residences to cheaper compact options. The area registers roughly 374 people for each dwelling approval, which is characteristic of an established suburb. Long-term projections indicate that Carina Heights will add 839 residents by 2041, based on the most recent quarterly estimate from AreaSearch. Current levels of construction appear to align well with future demand, promoting balanced market conditions without significant price pressure.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Carina Heights
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 7 current infrastructure and development projects inside Carina Heights, worth an estimated $168 million. A further 96 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $9.71 billion. 17 are already under construction and 38 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, transport & logistics and communities, precincts & urban renewal. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Changes to local infrastructure, major developments, and urban planning decisions are key drivers of local performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects expected to influence the local area. Principal developments include the Greendale Village Shopping Centre, the Aveo Parkside Carindale Redevelopment, the Belmont Private Hospital Expansion, and Fairway Carindale Stage 2, with the list below highlighting those of greatest significance.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Shopping Centre Expansion - 789-805 Old Cleveland Road, Carina
Expansion and refurbishment of the Carina neighbourhood shopping centre into an open-air, four-storey complex delivered over two stages. The development, designed by WSA Architecture and planned by Place Design Group, includes new shops, food and drink outlets, office space, healthcare services, and indoor sport and recreation facilities. Stage 1 provides 181 car spaces (including 23 motorcycle) with the full two-stage build providing 441 spaces. The project maintains a local scale while significantly upgrading customer amenity and the streetscape along Old Cleveland Road.
Jardin Collection - 31 Anzac Road Carina Heights
Jardin Collection is a boutique residential development featuring contemporary apartments and townhouses with garden-style living. The development emphasizes sustainable design and community spaces within the established Carina Heights area.
Winstanley Street Medical Centre Development
Four-storey mixed-use building featuring Medical Centre, Office & Retail over 4 levels with total GFA of 2,833sqm. Three street frontage on Winstanley Street, Carina Heights. The development includes small supermarket, healthcare services, food and drink outlets, and professional offices serving eastern Brisbane suburbs.
Belmont Private Hospital Expansion
A $21 million expansion of Belmont Private Hospital. The project includes a new purpose-built women's centre for perinatal mood disorders, a new adolescent mental health ward, additional patient rooms, and new operating theatres. The expansion will increase the total number of beds by 35 to 185 to serve the growing healthcare needs of the eastern Brisbane region.
Fairway Carindale Stage 2
Second stage of Fairway Carindale featuring 76 luxury golf-side apartments across three mid-rise buildings. Part of the total 191 apartment retirement village development at Pacific Golf Club. Expected completion 2026.
Aveo Parkside Carindale Redevelopment
$280 million transformation of a 38-year-old retirement village into a modern multi-storey community with 405 independent living apartments and a privately owned 140-bed residential care facility across six stages. Features resort-style amenities and is close to Westfield Carindale.
Greendale Village Shopping Centre
A local retail development comprising a 3,359sqm supermarket, 2,496sqm of specialty shops, food and drink outlets, and health care services. The project includes 306 car parking spaces and significant landscaping on a 2.106ha site. Originally approved in 2008, the development has faced extensive delays, including the 2022 insolvency of a previous contractor. In 2025, the Planning and Environment Court granted a fifth extension to the currency period, allowing the developer until March 2027 to commence construction.
Retail, Community Use Centre and Place of Worship - Creek Road
Proposed mixed-use development by The Salvation Army involving a four-stage rollout at 1529 Creek Road. The project includes a shop, community care centre, and a place of worship. The design features a two-storey community building, 105 car parking spaces, and extensive landscaping, replacing the existing single-storey buildings on the site to better serve the Carina community.
4,518 residents of Carina Heights are employed, from a labour force of 4,751. Unemployment sits at 4.9%, with participation at 75.5%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 7.0% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 5,750, about 76% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local workforce in Carina Heights is highly educated with professional services strongly represented, an unemployment rate of 4.9%, and an estimated annual employment expansion of 5.4%. In March 2026, 4,518 local residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 0.6% higher than the 4.3% recorded in Greater Brisbane, and the participation rate was exceptionally high at 75.5% compared to 70.4% in Greater Brisbane. According to Census data, a moderate 24.2% of residents worked from home, although this may have been influenced by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Resident employment is heavily concentrated in the sectors of health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical.
The concentration in professional & technical fields is especially high, running at 1.2 times the regional average. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing shows a small footprint at 4.0% employment compared to 5.6% across the region. Comparison of the Census working population against the resident population indicates that this mostly residential suburb offers few local employment opportunities. Based on AreaSearch's study of SALM and ABS statistics, during the 12 months leading up to March 2026, employment grew by 5.4% while the labour force expanded by 4.9%, resulting in a 0.4 percentage point reduction in the unemployment rate. This trend diverges from Greater Brisbane, where employment increased by 3.2%, the labour force grew by 3.4%, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points. Future local demand trends can be analysed using the national employment projections released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25. These projections for five and ten-year horizons were mapped against the local industry profile to estimate employment growth. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary by industry. Projecting these industry-specific trends onto the local workforce mix suggests employment in Carina Heights will rise by 7.0% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, representing a simple weighted extrapolation for illustrative purposes that excludes local population projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Carina Heights is $1,993 a week (about $104,000 a year), with median personal income at $977 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $65,491 a year against an average of $86,037. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Taxpayer income levels within the Carina Heights SA2 are extremely high on a national scale, based on the latest ATO statistics compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median taxpayer income in the Carina Heights SA2 is $65,491 and the average taxpayer income is $86,037, compared to $58,236 and $72,799 respectively in Greater Brisbane. Accounting for a Wage Price Index rise of 11.36% since financial year 2023, current estimates are approximately $72,931 for median income and $95,811 for average income as of March 2026. Census statistics indicate that household, family, and individual incomes in Carina Heights are generally around the 70th percentile nationally.
The largest income bracket is the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly category, which accounts for 34.3% of households (2,582 residents), aligning with the wider region where 33.3% fall into this bracket. Although high housing costs consume 16.3% of income, strong earnings keep disposable income in the 64th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income score falls into the 7th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Carina Heights had 2,801 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 54% detached houses and 6% apartments. 35% are owned with a mortgage, 42% rented and 23% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $400 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,950 a month. Rent absorbs 20.1% of household income here and mortgage repayments 22.6%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
The housing stock in Carina Heights at the time of the latest Census consisted of 53.8% detached houses and 46.3% other dwellings, including semi-detached properties, apartments, and alternative structures, compared to 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings across metropolitan Brisbane. Home ownership rates in Carina Heights were below the metropolitan Brisbane average, standing at 23.4%, with remaining properties being mortgaged (34.9%) or rented (41.8%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,950 was higher than the Brisbane metro average of $1,863, and the median weekly rent of $400 also exceeded the metropolitan Brisbane median of $380.
Locally, mortgage payments in Carina Heights are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are above the national benchmark of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Carina Heights counted 2,801 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 3,063 today, averaging 2.3 people each. 25% are couples with children, against 27% couples without children. 26% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.3 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family households make up 67.7% of all households, consisting of couples with children (25.2%), couples without children (26.8%), and single parent families (14.1%). The remaining 32.3% are non-family households, which include lone person households (26.1%) and group households (6.2%). The median household size of 2.3 individuals is lower than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
38.9% of adults in Carina Heights hold a university qualification, including 26.6% with a bachelor degree and 8.4% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 19.1% hold a vocational qualification. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Residents of Carina Heights display high levels of educational attainment, with 38.9% of those aged 15+ holding university degrees, compared to 25.7% in QLD and 30.4% nationwide. This educational profile leaves the suburb well-positioned for knowledge-based employment. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification at 26.6%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 8.4% and graduate diplomas at 3.9%. Vocational skills are also prominent, with 30.8% of residents aged 15+ possessing vocational qualifications, consisting of advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (19.1%). Enrolment in formal education is high, with 28.0% of the population participating.
This includes 7.9% in tertiary institutions, 7.8% in primary schools, and 6.1% in secondary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Carina Heights reaches 49 stops on 13 routes, timetabled for about 2,700 services a week. The typical home sits about 140 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.2 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Analysis of public transport options shows 49 active transport stops in Carina Heights, which are serviced by buses. These stops accommodate 13 separate routes, generating 2,671 passenger trips weekly. Accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents living an average of 141 meters from the nearest stop. The suburb is primarily residential, and the majority of commuters travel outside the area, with private cars being the dominant mode of travel at 82%, followed by bus transit at 12%. Average car ownership is 1.2 vehicles per household, which is below the regional average.
A total of 24.2% of residents work from home, based on the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-era conditions. Daily services average 381 trips across all active routes, which translates to approximately 54 weekly trips for each transport stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
68.7% of residents in Carina Heights report no long-term health condition. 5.2% need daily assistance with core activities, and 62.0% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 3.8 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic illness rates, Carina Heights displays favorable health outcomes, with a low prevalence of common conditions in the general population, though rates are higher than the national average in older, high-risk groups. The rate of private health insurance is exceptionally high, covering approximately 62% of the population (4,667 people), compared to 55.8% in Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health conditions and asthma are the most common medical diagnoses, affecting 10.6% and 8.1% of residents respectively, while 68.7% of the population reported no chronic conditions compared to 69.2% in Greater Brisbane.
Health profiles for working-age residents are generally typical. Residents aged 65 and over constitute 13.8% of the local population (1,038 people), which is lower than the 15.1% share in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among older residents show some challenges, ranking lower nationally than the local population as a whole.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
27.4% of Carina Heights residents were born overseas and 19.3% speak a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (24.8%) and Australian (21.9%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Carina Heights shows greater cultural diversity than most local markets, with 27.4% of residents born overseas and 19.3% speaking a non-English language at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 50.4% of the population. The most prominent religious overrepresentation is Buddhism, which accounts for 2.0% of residents, identical to the 2.0% rate recorded across Greater Brisbane. The three most common ancestral groups in Carina Heights are English (24.8%), Australian (21.9%), and Other (10.1%). Some ethnic backgrounds show distinct variations from regional averages, with Russian ancestry representing 0.7% of Carina Heights (compared to 0.3% regionally), New Zealand ancestry at 1.2% (compared to 1.0%), and Spanish ancestry at 0.7% (compared to 0.4%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Carina Heights is 36. 29.9% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age in Carina Heights is 36 years, matching Greater Brisbane's median of 36 and sitting below the national median of 38 years. The 25 - 34 age bracket is highly represented at 17.9% compared to Greater Brisbane, while the 5 - 14 cohort is less common at 10.2%. Since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group grew from 3.6% to 4.8% of the population, and the 45 to 54 group rose from 12.2% to 13.3%, while the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 8.4% to 7.5%. Demographic projections for 2041 suggest significant changes, with the 45 to 54 cohort projected to increase by 219 people (22%), growing from 1,001 to 1,221, while population decreases are expected for the 35 to 44 and 0 to 4 groups.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Carina Heights
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | May 2026 3 months ago all 7 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 82 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (6,884 at the 2021 Census → 7,529 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (303011050). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.