Carina

Population growth drivers in Carina are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Carina's population is around 12,763 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 937 people (7.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,826 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,703 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 427 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,913 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carina's 7.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (7.4%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 75.5% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including interstate migration and natural growth, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence, where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is expected, with the area expected to increase by 1,512 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 11.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Carina among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Carina has averaged around 87 new dwelling approvals per year, with 437 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 49 so far in FY-26. At an average of 1.9 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, though recent data shows this has intensified to 4.9 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential undersupply. New homes are being built at an average value of $266,000, consistent with regional patterns. Additionally, $18.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

Compared to Greater Brisbane, Carina has slightly more development (29.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, though development activity has moderated in recent periods. Recent construction comprises 74.0% detached dwellings and 26.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (55.0% at Census), reflecting persistent strong demand for family homes amid densification trends. With around 207 people per dwelling approval, Carina shows characteristics of a growth area.

Population forecasts indicate Carina will gain 1,452 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Carina has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 19 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Shopping Centre Expansion - 789-805 Old Cleveland Road, Carina, Kensho Carina, Retail, Community Use Centre & Place of Worship - Creek Road, and Minnippi Quarter - Ellen Street & Fursden Road, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Carina ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Carina features a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.6%, and 2.4% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,512 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.5% below Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (73.5% compared to Greater Brisbane's 71.2%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 23.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in professional & technical services, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. Meanwhile, manufacturing has a limited presence with 4.8% employment compared to 6.4% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 2.4% while the labour force increased by 2.5%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. By comparison, Greater Brisbane recorded employment growth of 3.2%, labour force growth of 3.0%, with unemployment falling 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Carina. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Carina's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Carina SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $68,441 and an average of $89,911 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is extremely high nationally, contrasting with Greater Brisbane's median income of $58,236 and average income of $72,799. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $75,224 (median) and $98,821 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Carina, between the 70th and 80th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate the largest segment comprises 33.6% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (4,288 residents), mirroring the surrounding region where 33.3% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 70th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carina displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Carina, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 55.4% houses and 44.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Brisbane metro's 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Carina was in line with that of Brisbane metro, at 26.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (39.3%) or rented (34.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Brisbane metro average at $2,000, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $440, compared to Brisbane metro's $1,863 and $380. Nationally, Carina's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carina features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 69.0% of all households, comprising 29.0% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.0%, with lone person households at 26.4% and group households comprising 4.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Carina shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Carina significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 37.7% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 25.7% in QLD and 30.4% in Australia. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 25.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 30.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (18.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 6.7% in tertiary education, and 6.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 35 active transport stops operating within Carina, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 19 individual routes, collectively providing 3,249 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 226 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 83%, with 9% by bus. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. Some 23.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 464 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 92 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carina is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Carina faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 66% of the total population (8,410 people). This compares to 55.8% across Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.8% and 7.4% of residents, respectively, while 70.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 69.2% across Greater Brisbane. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 17.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,216 people), which is higher than the 15.2% in Greater Brisbane, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carina was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carina is above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 25.1% of its population born overseas and 15.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Carina is Christianity, which makes up 52.4% of the population, compared to 47.8% across Greater Brisbane.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Carina are English, comprising 26.4% of the population, Australian, comprising 23.8% of the population, and Irish, comprising 10.1% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: New Zealand is overrepresented at 1.1% of Carina (vs 1.0% regionally), Korean at 0.7% (vs 0.5%) and Spanish at 0.6% (vs 0.4%).

Carina's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

At 37 years, Carina's median age is nearly matching the Greater Brisbane average of 36 while also very close to the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Brisbane, Carina has a higher concentration of 35 - 44 residents (17.6%) but fewer 15 - 24 year-olds (11.0%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 16.5% to 17.6% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 16.4% to 15.3% and the 0 to 4 group dropped from 6.7% to 5.6%. Demographic modeling suggests Carina's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 53%, adding 444 residents to reach 1,278. Senior residents (65+) will drive 58% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. On the other hand, the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.