Carina

Population growth drivers in Carina are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Carina's population was around 12,763 as of February 2026. This reflected an increase of 937 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,826. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,703 in June 2024 and an additional 427 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 2,913 persons per square kilometer, placing Carina in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carina's growth of 7.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth of 7.4%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 75.5% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including interstate migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. These state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Future population dynamics anticipate a population increase just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch, expecting an increase of 1,512 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 11.4% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Carina among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Carina averaged approximately 87 new dwelling approvals per year between FY-21 and FY-25, with a total of 437 homes approved during this period. In FY-26, up to the present date, 48 homes have been approved. Over these five financial years, an average of 1.9 new residents arrived per new home built. However, in the past two financial years, this ratio has increased to 4.9 people per dwelling, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

The average construction cost value for new homes is $266,000, which aligns with regional patterns. In FY-26, commercial approvals totalling $18.3 million have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity in the area. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Carina has shown slightly more development activity over the past five years, with a 29.0% increase per person above the regional average.

This has maintained good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, though recent periods have seen a moderation in development activity. Recent construction comprises 74.0% detached dwellings and 26.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Carina's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing that appeals to space-seeking buyers. Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (55.0% at Census), reflecting strong demand for family homes despite densification trends. With around 207 people per dwelling approval, Carina exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 1,452 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Carina has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 19 projects likely to affect the area. Notable ones include Shopping Centre Expansion at 789-805 Old Cleveland Road, Carina; Kensho Carina Retail and Community Use Centre & Place of Worship on Creek Road; Minnippi Quarter development at Ellen Street & Fursden Road. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Carina demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Carina has a well-educated workforce with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate was 2.8% as of September 2025. This rate is 1.2% lower than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation in Carina is similar to Greater Brisbane's at 70.7%. According to Census responses, 23.9% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. The latter sector has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Manufacturing has limited presence, with 4.8% employment compared to 6.4% regionally. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 0.3%, while labour force increased by 0.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Brisbane recorded employment growth of 3.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carina's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Carina SA2 is $68,441 based on postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The average income stands at $89,911 during this period. Nationally, these figures are extremely high compared to Greater Brisbane's median income of $58,236 and average income of $72,799 in the same year. Factoring in a 9.91% increase from financial year 2023 due to Wage Price Index growth, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $75,224 (median) and $98,821 (average). Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Carina all rank highly nationally, between the 70th and 80th percentiles. The largest income bracket comprises 33.6% of residents earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (4,288 individuals), which is similar to the surrounding region where 33.3% fall into this category. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income in Carina, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 70th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carina displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Carina's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 55.4% houses and 44.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Brisbane metro's 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carina was at 26.7%, with the rest being mortgaged (39.3%) or rented (34.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carina was $2,000, higher than Brisbane metro's average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Carina was $440, compared to Brisbane metro's $380. Nationally, Carina's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,000 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher at $440 compared to the national figure of $375.

Carina features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.0% of all households, including 29.0% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.0%, with lone person households at 26.4% and group households comprising 4.7%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Carina shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Carina's educational attainment is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 37.7% hold university qualifications, compared to 25.7% in Queensland (QLD) and 30.4% nationally. This educational advantage positions the area favourably for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.1%).

Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 30.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 11.8% and certificates for 18.9%. Educational participation is high in Carina, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 6.7% in tertiary education, and 6.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carina has 35 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 19 different routes, collectively transporting 3249 passengers weekly. Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 226 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car is the primary mode of transport, used by 83% of residents, while bus accounts for 9%. The area has an average vehicle ownership of 1.2 per dwelling, below the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 23.9% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, there are approximately 464 trips daily, equating to about 92 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carina is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Carina faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 66% of the total population, which comprises 8,410 people.

This compares to 55.8% in Greater Brisbane and 55.7% nationally. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 8.8% of residents and asthma impacting 7.4%. A total of 70.2% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.2% across Greater Brisbane. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 17.4% of residents aged 65 and over, which amounts to 2,216 people. This is higher than the 15.2% in Greater Brisbane but lower than national rankings.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carina was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carina's cultural diversity was found to be above average, with 25.1% of its population born overseas and 15.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the main religion in Carina, making up 52.4% of people, compared to 47.8% across Greater Brisbane. The top three ancestry groups were English (26.4%), Australian (23.8%), and Irish (10.1%).

Notably, New Zealanders comprised 1.1%, Koreans 0.7%, and Spanish 0.6%, each higher than their respective regional representations of 1.0%, 0.5%, and 0.4%.

Carina's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carina's median age is nearly 37 years, closely matching Greater Brisbane's average of 36 years and slightly below Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Carina has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (17.6%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.0%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 35-44 grew from 16.5% to 17.6%, while the 25-34 cohort declined from 16.4% to 15.3% and the 0-4 group decreased from 6.7% to 5.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Carina's age profile. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 53%, adding 444 residents to reach a total of 1,278. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 58% of population growth. Conversely, the 5-14 and 0-4 age groups are projected to experience population declines.