Carina

Population growth drivers in Carina are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Carina's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 12,925. This figure represents a growth of 1,099 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,826. The increase is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 12,897 in June 2025 and an additional 432 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,950 persons per square kilometer, placing Carina in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessments. The area's growth rate of 9.3% since the 2021 census exceeded its SA3 area's rate of 8.1%, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 76.3% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including interstate migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings using ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 with a base year of 2022. Based on projected demographic shifts, Carina is expected to grow by just below the median national rate, increasing by approximately 1,304 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of around 9.9% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Carina among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Carina has averaged approximately 87 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 437 homes. As of FY-26, 52 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.9 people moved to the area per dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand. However, this has intensified to 4.9 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply. New homes are being constructed at an average value of $266,000, aligning with regional patterns.

This year, $18.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Carina shows moderately higher development activity (29.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period), balancing buyer choice while supporting current property values. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods.

New building activity comprises 74.0% standalone homes and 26.0% townhouses or apartments, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. Detached housing is favoured more than current patterns suggest (55.0% at Census), demonstrating robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. The location has approximately 207 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts estimate Carina will gain 1,276 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Carina has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects likely to affect the area. Notable ones are Shopping Centre Expansion at 789-805 Old Cleveland Road, Carina; Kensho Carina, a retail and community use centre with place of worship on Creek Road; and Minnippi Quarter at Ellen Street & Fursden Road. The following list details projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Carina significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Carina's workforce is well-educated with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate was 2.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.4%. As of December 2025, 7,512 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.5% lower than Greater Brisbane's 4.1%.

Workforce participation was 72.2%, slightly higher than Greater Brisbane's 69.6%. According to Census responses, 23.9% of residents worked from home as of December 2025. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. Carina has a particular employment specialization in professional & technical services, with an employment share 1.2 times the regional level.

Conversely, manufacturing employs only 4.8% of local workers, below Greater Brisbane's 6.4%. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 2.4% while labour force grew by 2.5%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 1.9%. In comparison, Greater Brisbane saw employment rise by 3.2%, labour force grow by 3.0%, and unemployment fall to 3.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase in employment over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carina's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Carina SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $68,441 and an average level of $89,911. These figures are high nationally compared to Greater Brisbane's median of $58,236 and average of $72,799. Using Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year 2023, current estimates as of March 2026 would be approximately $76,216 (median) and $100,125 (average). Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes all rank highly in Carina, between the 70th and 80th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 33.6% of locals (4,342 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the broader area where this cohort also represents 33.3%. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 70th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carina displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Carina, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 55.4% houses and 44.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Brisbane metro had 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carina was 26.7%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (39.3%) or rented (34.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carina was $2,000, higher than Brisbane metro's average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Carina was recorded at $440, compared to Brisbane metro's $380. Nationally, Carina's mortgage repayments were above the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Carina features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.0% of all households, including 29.0% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.0%, with lone person households at 26.4% and group households comprising 4.7%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Carina shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Carina's educational attainment exceeds broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 37.7% hold university qualifications, compared to 25.7% in Queensland (QLD) and 30.4% nationwide. Bachelor degrees are most common at 25.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 30.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 18.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.4% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 6.7% in tertiary education, and 6.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carina has 35 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 19 different routes that together facilitate 3,249 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as good, with residents typically living 226 meters from the nearest one. In this predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward, primarily by car (83%). Bus use accounts for 9% of trips. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling in Carina, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 23.9% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 464 trips per day, equating to approximately 92 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carina is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

AreaSearch's assessment found significant health challenges in Carina based on mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 66% of the total population (8,517 people), compared to 55.8% across Greater Brisbane and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 8.8% of residents and asthma impacting 7.4%. A total of 70.2% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.2% across Greater Brisbane. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. Carina has 16.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,114 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Brisbane, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carina was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carina's population showed notable cultural diversity, with 25.1% born overseas and 15.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Carina, accounting for 52.4%, compared to 47.8% across Greater Brisbane. The top three ancestry groups were English (26.4%), Australian (23.8%), and Irish (10.1%).

Notably, New Zealanders comprised 1.1% of Carina's population, higher than the regional average of 1.0%. Similarly, Koreans made up 0.7%, above the regional 0.5%, and Spanish speakers constituted 0.6%, exceeding the regional 0.4%.

Carina's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carina's median age is 37 years, nearly matching Greater Brisbane's average of 36 and close to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Carina has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (17.9%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (11.4%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35-44 age group has increased from 16.5% to 17.9%, while the 0-4 cohort has declined from 6.7% to 5.6%. By 2041, Carina's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 52%, adding 404 residents to reach 1,181. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 57% of population growth. Conversely, the 5-14 and 0-4 age groups are projected to experience population declines.