Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's population was approximately 15,942 as of November 2025. This figure represents a 40.7% increase since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 11,333. The increase is inferred from an estimated resident population of 14,428 in June 2024 and an additional 2,379 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 180 persons per square kilometer. The area's growth exceeded both the non-metro average (6.0%) and national average. Interstate migration contributed approximately 76.7% to the overall population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the population is projected to increase by 12,256 persons, reflecting a total increase of 67.3% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek has seen approximately 550 dwellings granted development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 2,751 homes have been approved, with an additional 212 approved in FY26 so far. On average, about 1.6 people move to the area each year for every dwelling built over these five years.

This has resulted in a balanced supply and demand dynamic, creating stable market conditions. The average construction cost of new homes is around $327,000. In terms of commercial development, approximately $10.0 million in approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating steady investment activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek exhibits 173% higher construction activity per capita, offering more choice for buyers and reflecting strong developer confidence in the location. New development primarily consists of detached dwellings (96%) with a smaller proportion of attached dwellings (4%), maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes.

With around 26 people moving in per approval, Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek is considered a developing area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add approximately 10,737 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favorable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 31 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Barwon Heads Road Upgrade - Stage 2 (Reserve Road to Lower Duneed Road), Glenlee, Armstrong Creek Sports Centre, and Warralily Quarter. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek had an unemployment rate of 2.0% as of September 2025. This is 1.7% lower than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

The workforce participation rate was 68.9%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries included health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Professional & technical services were particularly prominent, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing, however, was under-represented at 1.3% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%.

Employment levels increased by 0.5% and labour force by 0.9% in Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek between September 2024 and September 2025, raising the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline by 0.7% and labour force decline by 0.6%. State-wide, VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year to 25-Nov-25, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $58,539 and an average income of $76,955 in financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures are notably high compared to the Rest of Vic.'s median income of $48,741 and average income of $60,693. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $65,657 (median) and $86,313 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek rank highly nationally, between the 78th and 79th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 37.6% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (5,994 residents), which is similar to the surrounding region where this cohort represents 30.3%. Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek exhibits considerable affluence with 30.7% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. Housing accounts for 13.7% of income, while strong earnings rank residents within the 80th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek, as per the latest Census, 92.2% of dwellings were houses with 7.9% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 93.0% houses and 7.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in the area stood at 30.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.2% and rented ones at 26.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,907, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,950. The median weekly rent figure was $420, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $402. Nationally, Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,907 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher at $420 compared to the national figure of $375.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 78.7% of all households, including 37.3% couples with children, 29.6% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for 21.3%, with lone person households at 17.5% and group households comprising 3.7%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.5.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek shows a significant advantage with 37.1% of residents aged 15 years and above holding university qualifications as of 2021, compared to the broader Victorian average of 21.7% and the SA4 region average of 28.6%. This high level of educational attainment is particularly notable for bachelor degrees (25.7%), postgraduate qualifications (7.5%), and graduate diplomas (3.9%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 35.1% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (13.8%) and certificates (21.3%). Educational participation is notably high in the area, with 33.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of 2021, comprising 12.9% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.9% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek shows 58 active public transport stops operating. These are a mix of bus stops serviced by three individual routes. The total weekly passenger trips provided by these routes is 647.

Residents have good accessibility to transport, with an average distance of 345 meters to the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 92 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 58% of the total population (~9,214 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.7 and 8.4% of residents respectively. 72.3% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 66.8% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 14.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,255 people), which is lower than the 24.2% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Barwon Heads-Armstrong Creek showed below-average cultural diversity, with 84.7% of its population born in Australia, 89.3% being citizens, and 92.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 39.8%. The 'Other' category was overrepresented at 1.1%, compared to 0.4% regionally.

Top ancestry groups were English (30.0%), Australian (28.0%), and Irish (10.2%). Notable divergences included Dutch (1.9% vs regional 1.8%), Scottish (9.1% vs 9.7%), and Welsh (0.6% vs 0.6%).

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's population is younger than the national pattern

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek has a median age of 34, which is lower than the Rest of Vic's figure of 43 and Australia's figure of 38. Compared to the Rest of Vic average, the 25-34 cohort is over-represented at 16.9% locally, while the 55-64 age group is under-represented at 8.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has increased from 14.7% to 16.9%, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 9.7% to 8.0%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 16.1% to 14.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's age profile will significantly evolve, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to grow by 2,576 people (from 2,700 to 5,277).