Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek
Statistical Area - sa2

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's population was around 15,500 as of Aug 2025. This reflected an increase of 4,167 people from the 2021 Census figure of 11,333. The change was inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 14,431 in June 2024 and validated new addresses since then. This resulted in a density ratio of 175 persons per square kilometer. Growth since the 2021 Census was 36.8%, exceeding non-metro area's 5.5% growth and national average, making it a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 76.7% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with base year 2022. For areas not covered, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period, placing it in the top 10 percent of national regional areas. The area is expected to increase by 12,256 persons to 2041 based on latest population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 72.1% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek has received approximately 550 dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides development approval data on a financial year basis, indicating 2,751 homes approved over the past five years from FY-21 to FY-25, with an additional 70 approved in FY-26. On average, 1.6 people have moved to the area annually for each dwelling built during these years. This balance between supply and demand has created stable market conditions, with new properties constructed at an average expected cost of $493,000.

In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $10.0 million, reflecting steady investment activity in the area. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek exhibits 173.0% higher construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers and indicating strong developer confidence. New developments consist primarily of detached dwellings (96.0%) with a smaller proportion of attached dwellings (4.0%), maintaining the area's traditional low-density character and appealing to families seeking space. With approximately 26 people moving in per dwelling approval, Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek is considered a developing area. Future projections estimate an increase of 11,179 residents by 2041.

Current construction levels are expected to meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 34 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Glenlee, Barwon Heads Road Upgrade - Stage 2 (Reserve Road to Lower Duneed Road), Warralily Quarter, and Armstrong Creek Sports Centre. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek has a well-educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.3% as of June 2021, with an estimated employment growth of 1.5%.

By June 2025, the resident population in work had increased to 7,529, and the unemployment rate decreased to 1.5%, below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was high at 68.9% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area had a particular specialization in professional & technical services, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented, with only 1.3% of Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's workforce compared to 7.5% in Rest of Vic.. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally based on Census data analysis. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.5%, while the labour force increased by 2.4%, causing a rise in unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.9% and labour force decline of 0.4%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data to Sep-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.9%% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek had a median taxpayer income of $58,539 and an average income of $76,955 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is notably higher than the Rest of Vic.'s median income of $48,741 and average income of $60,693. By March 2025, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $64,457 and an average income of $84,735, based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek rank highly nationally, between the 78th and 79th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that the largest segment comprises 37.6% of residents earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly. This aligns with the surrounding region where this cohort represents 30.3%. Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek demonstrates significant affluence with 30.7% of residents earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. Housing accounts for 13.7% of income, while strong earnings rank residents within the 80th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The latest Census data shows that in Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek, 92.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 7.9% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 93.0% houses and 7.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek stood at 30.1%, with mortgaged dwellings making up 43.2% and rented dwellings accounting for 26.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,907, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,950. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $420, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $402. Nationally, Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.7% of all households, including 37.3% couples with children, 29.6% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.3%, with lone person households at 17.5% and group households making up 3.7%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.5.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek exceeds broader benchmarks. As of 2016, 37.1% of residents aged 15+ hold university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in Rest of Vic. and 28.6% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 25.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.9%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 35.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 13.8% and certificates at 21.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 33.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of 2016. This includes 12.9% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education. The area's five schools had a combined enrollment of 2,749 students in 2016. Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1059). The educational mix includes three primary schools, one secondary school, and one K-12 school. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 17.7 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 12.3, indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek has 58 active public transport stops. These are served by buses on three different routes, offering a total of 647 weekly passenger trips. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 345 meters.

On average, there are 92 trips per day across all routes, which translates to about 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 58% of the total population (8,959 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.7 and 8.4% of residents respectively, while 72.3% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 66.8% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 14.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,193 people), which is lower than the 24.2% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Barwon Heads-Armstrong Creek, in a cultural diversity assessment conducted on 25th June 20XX, was found to have a predominantly homogeneous population. The vast majority, 89.3%, were Australian citizens, with 84.7% born within Australia and 92.1% primarily speaking English at home. Christianity emerged as the leading religion in the region, accounting for 39.8% of the total population.

Notably, the 'Other' category showed an overrepresentation in Barwon Heads-Armstrong Creek compared to the regional average, with 1.1% versus 0.4%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English at 30.0%, Australian at 28.0%, and Irish at 10.2%. Some ethnic groups showed notable variations in representation: Dutch was slightly overrepresented at 1.9% compared to the regional average of 1.8%, Scottish stood at 9.1% versus 9.7%, and Welsh remained consistent with the regional average at 0.6%.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's population is younger than the national pattern

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek has a median age of 34, which is lower than the Rest of Vic figure of 43 and Australia's figure of 38. Compared to the Rest of Vic average, the 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented at 16.9%, while the 55-64 age group is under-represented at 8.0%. Between 2021 and the present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 14.7% to 16.9% of the population. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 9.7% to 8.0%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 16.1% to 14.9%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's age profile will evolve significantly, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to surge dramatically, expanding by 2,651 people (101%) from 2,625 to 5,277.