Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek
Statistical Area - sa2

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's population is around 15,942 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 11,333 people. The estimated resident population in June 2024 was 14,428, with an additional 2,379 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this growth. This results in a population density of 180 persons per square kilometer. The area's population grew by 40.7% between the 2021 Census and Nov 2025, surpassing the non-metro area (6.0%) and national average growth rates. Interstate migration accounted for approximately 76.7% of overall population gains during recent periods, with other factors such as natural growth and overseas migration also contributing positively to the increase.

AreaSearch's projections for Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek is expected to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of national regional areas. By 2041, the population is projected to increase by 12,256 persons, reflecting a total increase of 67.3% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek has received approximately 550 dwelling approvals annually. Between Financial Year 21 and Financial Year 25, 2,751 homes were approved, with an additional 149 approved in Financial Year 26 to date. On average, 1.6 people have moved to the area annually for each dwelling built over these five years.

This balance between supply and demand has maintained stable market conditions. The average construction cost of new homes is $327,000. In commercial development, $10.0 million in approvals have been recorded this financial year. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek shows 173.0% higher construction activity per person. This level exceeds national averages, indicating strong developer confidence in the location.

New developments consist of 96.0% detached dwellings and 4.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's traditional low-density character and appealing to families seeking space. With around 26 people per approval, Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek reflects a developing area. Future projections estimate an addition of 10,737 residents by 2041. Current construction levels should adequately meet housing demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially facilitating growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 31 projects likely affecting the area. Notable ones include Glenlee, Barwon Heads Road Upgrade - Stage 2 (Reserve Road to Lower Duneed Road), Warralily Quarter, and Armstrong Creek Sports Centre. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.3% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.5%. The area had 7,529 residents employed by June 2025, with an unemployment rate of 1.5%, lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was high at 68.9% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

The area had a particular specialization in professional & technical services with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented at 1.3% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census data analysis by AreaSearch. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.5%, labour force by 2.4%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline by 0.9% and labour force decline by 0.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek has a median taxpayer income of $58,539 and an average income of $76,955 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. Nationally, this is extremely high compared to Rest of Vic.'s median income of $48,741 and average income of $60,693. Based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $65,657 (median) and $86,313 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes all rank highly in Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek, between the 78th and 79th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile indicates that the largest segment comprises 37.6% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (5,994 residents), similar to the surrounding region where this cohort represents 30.3%. Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek exhibits considerable affluence with 30.7% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. Housing accounts for 13.7% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 80th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.2% houses and 7.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 93.0% houses and 7.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek was 30.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.2% and rented ones at 26.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,907, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,950. Median weekly rent in the area was $420, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $402. Nationally, Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,907 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.7% of all households, including 37.3% couples with children, 29.6% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.3%, with lone person households at 17.5% and group households at 3.7%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Rest of Vic average of 2.5.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek is notably high, with 37.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications compared to 21.7% in the rest of Victoria and 28.6% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.9%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 35.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas comprise 13.8% and certificates make up 21.3%. Educational participation is high, with 33.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.9% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

The area's five schools have a combined enrollment of 2,749 students, while demonstrating above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1059). The educational mix includes three primary schools, one secondary school, and one K-12 school. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 17.7 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 12.3, indicating that the area serves as an educational center for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek has 58 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with three individual routes in total providing 647 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents typically located 345 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 92 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek.

Prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups is very low. Approximately 58% of the total population (9214 people) has private health cover, a rate exceptionally high compared to other areas. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.7% and 8.4% of residents respectively. 72.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, higher than the 66.8% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 14.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2255 people), lower than the 24.2% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Barwon Heads-Armstrong Creek, surveyed in 2016, had a cultural diversity score below average. Its population was predominantly Australian-born citizens: 89.3% were citizens, 84.7% born in Australia, and 92.1% spoke English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 39.8%.

The 'Other' religious category was overrepresented compared to Rest of Vic., with 1.1% vs 0.4%. Top ancestry groups were English (30.0%), Australian (28.0%), and Irish (10.2%). Dutch (1.9%) and Scottish (9.1%) were notably overrepresented, while Welsh was proportionate at 0.6%.

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's population is younger than the national pattern

Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek has a median age of 34, which is lower than the Rest of Vic.'s figure of 43 and Australia's figure of 38. The 25-34 cohort is over-represented locally at 16.9%, compared to the Rest of Vic.'s average. Meanwhile, the 55-64 age group is under-represented at 8.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 14.7% to 16.9%, while the 55-64 cohort has declined from 9.7% to 8.0%. The 5-14 age group has also decreased from 16.1% to 14.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Barwon Heads - Armstrong Creek's age profile. Notably, the 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow significantly, increasing by 2,576 people (95%) from 2,700 to 5,277.