Grovedale

Population growth drivers in Grovedale are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

The estimated population of Grovedale is around 15,346 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase of 477 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,869. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 15,197 in June 2024, along with 48 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,158 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Interstate migration contributed approximately 69.0% to Grovedale's recent population growth, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Grovedale is projected to increase by 8,165 persons, reflecting a total gain of 52.2% over the 17-year period and placing it in the top 10 percent of national regional areas for population growth.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Grovedale among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Grovedale has seen around 52 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25. This totals an estimated 260 homes. In FY-26 so far, 49 approvals have been recorded. Each year, on average, 10.9 new residents are associated with every home built.

This indicates demand outpacing supply, potentially putting upward pressure on prices and increasing competition among buyers. The average construction value of these properties is $412,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, there have been $3.9 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited commercial development activity compared to residential. Compared to Rest of Vic., Grovedale has significantly less development activity, at 67.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity could strengthen demand and prices for existing properties.

The area's established nature is also indicated by its level being under the national average, potentially suggesting planning limitations. New developments consist of 95.0% standalone homes and 5.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Grovedale's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. There are approximately 276 people per dwelling approval in Grovedale, indicating a low density market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Grovedale is expected to grow by 8,016 residents through to 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Grovedale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can greatly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, significant projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 23 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Deakin University Waurn Ponds Expansion, Barwon Heads Road Upgrade, Wandana Estate, and 98 Marshalltown Road Townhouse Development. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Grovedale maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Grovedale has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.1%. Employment stability over the past year is relative.

As of December 2025, 8,598 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.6% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is high at 69.2%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. According to Census responses, 17.4% of residents work from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Grovedale specializes in retail trade with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.8% compared to Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Grovedale's labour force decreased by 0.3%, with employment decreasing by 0.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic.'s employment contracted by 0.6%, labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Grovedale's employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Grovedale's employment mix.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Grovedale had a median taxpayer income of $48,471 and an average income of $60,159 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was lower than the national average, compared to Regional Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728 in the same period. By September 2025, based on an 8.25% increase from the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023, estimated incomes would be approximately $52,470 (median) and $65,122 (average). The 2021 Census data showed household, family and personal incomes in Grovedale ranked modestly, between the 29th and 34th percentiles. Income distribution indicated that 33.9% of residents (5,202 people) fell within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, similar to the metropolitan region where 30.3% occupied this bracket. Housing affordability was severe, with only 84.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 35th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Grovedale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Grovedale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.9% houses and 14.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grovedale stood at 36.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.9% and rented ones at 27.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,582, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Grovedale was $350, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Grovedale's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,582 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were lower at $350 compared to the national figure of $375.

Grovedale features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 67.7% of all households, including 26.6% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 11.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 27.9% and group households making up 4.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which corresponds to the Regional Vic. average.

Grovedale performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Grovedale's residents aged 15+ have 24.1% university degrees, compared to Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 16.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 36.6%, with advanced diplomas at 12.1% and certificates at 24.5%. Educational participation is high, with 26.1% currently enrolled in formal education: 7.9% in primary, 6.1% in secondary, and 5.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.9% in primary education, 6.1% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grovedale has 83 active public transport stops serviced by 22 routes. These routes facilitate a total of 2,238 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest stop is 191 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. In this primarily residential area, most commuting is outward-bound and cars are the dominant mode at 94%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 17.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 319 trips daily across all routes, translating to approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Grovedale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Grovedale faces significant health challenges, as per AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age cohorts exhibit notable health conditions, with mental health issues affecting 10.5% and arthritis impacting 9.1% of residents.

Approximately 61.8% of Grovedale residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic. The area has a relatively low private health cover rate of approximately 51%, with the national average being 55.7%. There are around 7,774 people in Grovedale. The working-age population faces substantial health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Grovedale has 20.7% of residents aged 65 and over (3,176 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly inline with the general population.

Grovedale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Grovedale's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.6% of its population born in Australia, 89.2% being citizens, and 89.4% speaking English only at home as their primary language. Christianity is the predominant religion in Grovedale, accounting for 46.1% of the population there. The most notable overrepresentation was seen in the 'Other' category, which comprises 1.1% of Grovedale's population compared to the regional average of 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups in Grovedale are English at 29.3%, Australian at 28.6%, and Scottish at 9.0%. Notably, Dutch (1.9%), Polish (0.8%), and Croatian (0.5%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to their regional percentages of 1.7%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively.

Grovedale's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Grovedale is 40, which is slightly below Regional Vic.'s average of 43 but above the Australian median of 38. The 25-34 cohort is notably higher at 18.9% locally compared to Regional Vic.'s average. Conversely, the 55-64 age group is under-represented at 9.2%. Between the 2021 Census and present, Grovedale's median age has decreased by 1.4 years to 40 from 41. The 25-34 age group has grown from 14.3% to 18.9%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 12.0% to 14.5%. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 10.9% to 9.2%, and the 15-24 group dropped from 12.8% to 11.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 suggest significant demographic changes, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to expand by 2,297 people (79%), reaching 5,198 from the current 2,900.