Grovedale

Population growth drivers in Grovedale are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Grovedale's population was estimated at 15,344 as of Nov 2025. This figure represents an increase of 475 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,869. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 15,197 residents in Jun 2024, along with 49 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,158 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Grovedale demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 4.0%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 69.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections predict exceptional growth over the period, placing Grovedale in the top 10 percent of national regional areas. The area is expected to increase by 9,398 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 69.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Grovedale among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Grovedale experienced around 52 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 261 homes. As of FY-26, 48 approvals have been recorded. On average, each home built between FY-21 and FY-25 attracted 10.8 new residents per year. Developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments, constructing properties at an average value of $412,000.

This financial year has seen $3.9 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited commercial development focus. Compared to Rest of Vic., Grovedale has significantly less development activity, 68.0% below the regional average per person. The area's established nature and potential planning limitations are suggested by its level being under the national average. New development consists of 95.0% standalone homes and 5.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Grovedale's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 274 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

Looking ahead, AreaSearch estimates Grovedale will grow by 10,666 residents through to 2041. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Grovedale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 23 such projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include the Deakin University Waurn Ponds Expansion, Barwon Heads Road Upgrade, Wandana Estate development, and the 98 Marshalltown Road Townhouse Development. The following list outlines those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Grovedale maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Grovedale has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 3.0% as of September 2025, which is 0.8% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Grovedale is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade has particularly high concentration, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.8% of Grovedale's workforce compared to 7.5% in Rest of Vic..

The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population and resident population. From September 2024 to September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.1% while labour force increased by 0.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Grovedale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Grovedale suburb has a median taxpayer income of $48,471 and an average of $60,159 based on latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Nationally, Rest of Vic's median income is $50,954 with an average of $62,728. By September 2025, estimated median and average incomes in Grovedale would be approximately $52,470 and $65,122 respectively, considering Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%. The 2021 Census ranks household, family, and personal incomes modestly in Grovedale, between the 29th to 34th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 33.9% of residents (5,201 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, similar to metropolitan regions at 30.3%. Grovedale faces severe housing affordability pressures with only 84.6% of income remaining, ranking at the 35th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Grovedale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Grovedale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.9% houses and 14.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grovedale was at 36.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.9% and rented ones at 27.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,582, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,712. Median weekly rent in Grovedale was $350, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $335. Nationally, Grovedale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Grovedale features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 67.7 percent of all households, consisting of 26.6 percent couples with children, 28.5 percent couples without children, and 11.6 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.3 percent, with lone person households at 27.9 percent and group households comprising 4.3 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Grovedale performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Grovedale trail's educational qualifications lag behind Victoria's regional benchmarks, with 24.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the state average of 33.4%. This indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement in Grovedale trail. Bachelor degrees are most common at 16.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 12.1% and certificates for 24.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.9% in primary education, 6.1% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grovedale has 83 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 22 different routes that together facilitate 2,238 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a resident's location to the nearest transport stop is 191 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 319 trips per day, which translates to approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Grovedale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Grovedale faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data. Both younger and older age groups have a notable prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 51% (around 7,773 people) of Grovedale's total population has private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.7%.

This figure is also slightly below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 53.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in Grovedale, affecting 10.5% and 9.1% of residents respectively. However, 61.8% of residents report having no medical ailments, which is lower than the Rest of Vic.'s figure of 65.9%. Grovedale has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over compared to the Rest of Vic.. As of 2021, 21.2% (3,252 people) of Grovedale's population falls into this age group, whereas in the Rest of Vic., this figure stands at 16.8%. The health outcomes among seniors in Grovedale present some challenges, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

Grovedale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Grovedale, as per the census data from June 2016, had a cultural diversity below average. Among its residents, 82.6% were born in Australia, with 89.2% being Australian citizens and 89.4% speaking English at home exclusively. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 46.1% of Grovedale's population.

However, there was an overrepresentation in the 'Other' religious category, accounting for 1.1% compared to the regional average of 1.2%. The top three ancestry groups were English (29.3%), Australian (28.6%), and Scottish (9.0%). Notable differences existed in the representation of Dutch (1.9% vs regional 2.0%), Polish (0.8% vs regional 0.8%), and Croatian (0.5% vs regional 1.5%) ethnic groups.

Grovedale's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Grovedale is 40 years, which is slightly below Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but above the Australian median of 38. The 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented at 17.8% locally, while the 55-64 age group is under-represented at 9.8%. Between the 2021 Census and the present day, Grovedale's median age has decreased by 1 year to 40 from 41. The 25-34 age group has grown from 14.3% to 17.8%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 12.0% to 13.8%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 10.9% to 9.8%, and the 85+ group dropped from 4.9% to 3.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Grovedale, with the 25-34 age group projected to expand substantially by 2,923 people (107%), from 2,731 to 5,655.