Grovedale

Population growth drivers in Grovedale are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of Grovedale is around 14,041, reflecting a decrease of 828 people from the 2021 Census figure of 14,869. This decrease is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population at 14,015, based on their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and validation of 48 new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 1,974 persons per square kilometer, above the national average according to AreaSearch assessments. Interstate migration was the primary driver of population growth, contributing approximately 69% of overall gains in recent periods. Other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also played positive roles.

AreaSearch's projections for Grovedale are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, projections from the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA data released in 2023 are used, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Looking ahead, Grovedale is predicted to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10% of national regional areas. By 2041, the suburb's population is expected to increase by 7,177 persons, reflecting a total gain of 50.9% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Grovedale when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Grovedale has experienced approximately 52 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 260 homes. As of FY-26, 57 approvals have been recorded. On average, each new dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 has accommodated around 1.7 new residents per year. The average construction value of these dwellings is approximately $412,000.

In FY-26, there have been $3.9 million in commercial approvals. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Grovedale has significantly less development activity, with 66.0% fewer approvals per person. New development consists mostly of standalone homes (95.0%) and a smaller portion of townhouses or apartments (5.0%). The area has approximately 256 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Grovedale is expected to grow by around 7,151 residents through to 2041.

If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Grovedale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 23 such projects that could impact the area. Notable among these are the Deakin University Waurn Ponds Expansion project, the Barwon Heads Road Upgrade, the Epworth Geelong Innovation and Education Precinct development, and the Wandana Estate project. The following list provides details on those expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Grovedale presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 3.6%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

Grovedale has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.6%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, there are 6,632 residents in work.

The unemployment rate aligns with Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is somewhat below standard at 58.0% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. A moderate 17.4% of residents work from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Grovedale has particular specialization in retail trade, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.8% compared to Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Grovedale's labour force decreased by 6.2%, with employment decreasing by 6.6%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic.'s employment contracted by 0.6%, the labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Grovedale. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Grovedale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, noting this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Grovedale suburb has a median taxpayer income of $48,471 and an average of $60,159 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, with Regional Vic.'s median being $50,954 and average income at $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $53,134 (median) and $65,946 (average). The 2021 Census data ranks Grovedale's household, family, and personal incomes modestly, between the 29th and 34th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 33.9% of residents (4,759 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, similar to metropolitan regions where 30.3% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Grovedale, with only 84.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 35th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Grovedale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Grovedale, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.9% houses and 14.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Vic.'s figures of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grovedale stood at 36.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.9% and rented dwellings at 27.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,582, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Grovedale was $350, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Grovedale's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,582 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $350 compared to the national figure of $375.

Grovedale features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 67.7% of all households, including 26.6% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 11.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 27.9% and group households comprising 4.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which matches the Regional Vic. average.

Grovedale performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Grovedale's educational qualifications as of 2021 trail regional benchmarks, with 24.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the Victorian average of 33.4%. This indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement in Grovedale. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 16.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (24.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the 2021 census. This includes 7.9% in primary education, 6.1% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grovedale has 83 active public transport stops serviced by 22 routes. These routes facilitate 2,238 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 191 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 94%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 17.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 319 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Grovedale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Grovedale faces significant health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of Grovedale's total population (~7,113 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.5% and 9.1% of residents respectively. However, 61.8% of Grovedale residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Victoria. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Grovedale has 21.6% of its residents aged 65 and over (3,032 people), lower than the 23.9% in Regional Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Grovedale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Grovedale's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.6% of its population born in Australia, 89.2% being citizens, and 89.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Grovedale, comprising 46.1% of its population. Notably, the 'Other' category is overrepresented in Grovedale at 1.1%, compared to Regional Vic's 0.8%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (29.3%), Australian (28.6%), and Scottish (9.0%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Dutch is overrepresented at 1.9% versus the regional average of 1.7%, Polish at 0.8% compared to 0.5%, and Croatian at 0.5% versus 0.4%.

Grovedale's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Grovedale is 40 years, which is slightly below Regional Victoria's average of 43 but above the national median of 38. Comparing with Regional Vic., residents aged 25-34 are notably over-represented at 18.2% locally compared to the regional average, while those aged 55-64 are under-represented at 9.4%. Since the census conducted on 2021/08/10, Grovedale's median age has decreased by 1 year to 40 from 41. Specifically, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 increased from 14.3% to 18.2%, while those aged 35-44 rose from 12.0% to 13.9%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 55-64 decreased from 10.9% to 9.4%, and those aged 15-24 dropped from 12.8% to 11.5%. Population projections for Grovedale indicate significant demographic shifts by 2041/07/01, with the 25-34 age group expected to grow substantially by 1,968 people (77%), reaching a total of 4,524 residents in this age bracket.