Grovedale

Population growth drivers in Grovedale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Grovedale's population is estimated at around 14,988 people. This figure reflects an increase of 119 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,869 people. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 14,870 following examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS in June 2024 and an additional 49 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,108 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Grovedale has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 4.0%, outpacing the SA3 area. Interstate migration contributed approximately 69.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with Grovedale expected to expand by 9,086 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 71.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Grovedale recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Grovedale averaged approximately 33 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 168 homes were approved, with an additional 5 approved in FY-26 to date. This results in an estimated 16.8 new residents per year arriving per dwelling constructed over the past five financial years.

The demand for housing significantly outpaces supply, which typically exerts upward pressure on prices and intensifies competition among buyers. New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $412,000, aligning with regional trends. Commercial approvals totaling $2.8 million have been recorded this financial year, indicating the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Grovedale exhibits significantly reduced construction levels, 79.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes.

Recent construction comprises predominantly detached dwellings (97.0%) and a smaller proportion of attached dwellings (3.0%), maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Grovedale has an estimated population density of around 1359 people per approval, indicative of a mature, established area. Future projections suggest Grovedale will add approximately 10,710 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Grovedale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 23 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Deakin University Waurn Ponds Expansion, Barwon Heads Road Upgrade, Wandana Estate, and 98 Marshalltown Road Townhouse Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Grovedale demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Grovedale has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 3.0% as of an unspecified date.

Over the past year, estimated employment growth was 2.1%. As of June 2025, 8,454 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.8% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading employment industries included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Retail trade had particularly notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented, with only 0.8% of Grovedale's workforce compared to 7.5% in Rest of Vic. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited, as indicated by a comparison of Census working population and resident population counts. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.1%, labour force increased by 2.6%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.5 percentage points. By contrast, Rest of Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.9%, a labour force decline of 0.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer insight into potential future demand within Grovedale. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Grovedale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Grovedale's median income among taxpayers was $48,471 and average income stood at $60,159 in financial year 2022. This compares to figures for Rest of Vic., which were $48,741 and $60,693 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $54,365 (median) and $67,474 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Grovedale ranked at the 32nd percentile, family incomes at the 34th percentile, and personal incomes at the 29th percentile. The predominant income cohort spanned 33.9% of locals (5,080 people) with incomes between $1,500 - 2,999, consistent with broader trends across the region showing 30.3% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 84.6% of income remaining, ranking at the 35th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Grovedale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Grovedale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 85.9% houses and 14.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro Vic., in comparison, had 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grovedale was 36.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.9% and rented ones at 27.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,582, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,712. The median weekly rent in Grovedale was $350, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $335. Nationally, Grovedale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Grovedale features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 67.7% of all households, including 26.6% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 11.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 27.9% and group households comprising 4.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average in the Rest of Vic.

Grovedale performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Educational qualifications in Grovedale trail regional benchmarks, with 24.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 33.4% in VIC. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 16.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (24.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.9% in primary education, 6.1% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education. A robust network of 7 schools operates within Grovedale, educating approximately 2,052 students while the area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1023) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with 5 primary and 2 secondary schools serving distinct age groups. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grovedale has 83 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that collectively facilitate 1,631 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 191 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there is an average service frequency of 233 trips per day, which equates to approximately 19 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Grovedale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Grovedale faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data. Both younger and older age groups have high prevalence rates for common health conditions.

Only approximately 51% (~7,592 people) of Grovedale residents have private health cover, compared to 52.7% in the rest of Victoria. Mental health issues affect 10.5% of Grovedale residents, while arthritis impacts 9.1%. Conversely, 61.8% claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 65.9% in the rest of Victoria. As of 2020-2021, 21.3% (3,192 people) of Grovedale residents are aged 65 and over, higher than the 16.8% in the rest of Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors present similar challenges to those faced by the general population.

Grovedale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Grovedale's population shows lower cultural diversity, with 82.6% born in Australia, 89.2% being citizens, and 89.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 46.1%. The 'Other' category is slightly overrepresented compared to Rest of Vic (1.1% vs 1.2%).

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are English (29.3%), Australian (28.6%), and Scottish (9.0%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Dutch at 1.9% (vs regional 2.0%), Polish at 0.8% (vs 0.8%), and Croatian at 0.5% (vs regional 1.5%).

Grovedale hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Grovedale is 40 years, which is slightly below Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 cohort makes up 17.8% of Grovedale's population, compared to the Rest of Vic. average, while the 55-64 age group constitutes 9.8%. Between the 2021 Census and now, Grovedale has seen its median age decrease by 1 year to 40 from 41. The 25-34 age group has grown from 14.3% to 17.8%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 12.0% to 13.8%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has decreased from 10.9% to 9.8%, and the 85+ group has dropped from 4.9% to 3.9%. Population forecasts for Grovedale in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to increase substantially, adding 2,922 people (110%) from 2,667 to 5,590.