Grovedale

Population growth drivers in Grovedale are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of Grovedale is estimated at around 15,346. This reflects an increase of 477 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,869. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 15,197 following examination of ABS data released in June 2024 and an additional 48 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,158 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Grovedale has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 4.0%. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 69.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year, and for areas not covered, utilising VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the suburb expected to increase by 9,338 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 69.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Grovedale among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Grovedale experienced around 52 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years ending FY25. This totals an estimated 261 homes approved since FY21. As of FY26, 48 approvals have been recorded. On average, each home built between FY21 and FY25 attracted 10.8 new residents per year.

The average construction value of these dwellings was $412,000, indicating a focus on the premium market. In FY26, there were $3.9 million in commercial approvals, suggesting limited commercial development activity compared to residential. Grovedale's development activity is 67.0% below the regional average per person and under the national average, reflecting its established nature and potential planning limitations. New developments consist of 95.0% standalone homes and 5.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban character with a focus on detached housing. The population density is approximately 274 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Grovedale is projected to grow by 10,605 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, intensifying buyer competition and potentially driving price increases.

Grovedale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 23 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include Deakin University Waurn Ponds Expansion, Barwon Heads Road Upgrade, Wandana Estate, and 98 Marshalltown Road Townhouse Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Grovedale maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Grovedale has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.9%. Employment stability over the past year is relative.

As of September 2025, 8,630 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate at 0.8% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Grovedale is 68.8%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. According to Census responses, 17.4% of residents work from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries of employment are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Retail trade has notable concentration with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, at 0.8% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.2%, labour force by 0.4%, raising unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Grovedale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, using simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Grovedale suburb has a median taxpayer income of $48,471 and an average of $60,159 based on latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Nationally, Rest of Vic.'s median income is $50,954 with an average income of $62,728. By September 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $52,470 (median) and $65,122 (average), accounting for Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, Grovedale's household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly, between the 29th and 34th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 33.9% of residents (5,202 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, similar to the metropolitan region's 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.6% of income remaining, ranking at the 35th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Grovedale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Grovedale's dwellings, as per the latest Census, comprised 85.9% houses and 14.1% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grovedale stood at 36.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.9% and rented ones at 27.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,582, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Grovedale was $350, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Grovedale's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,582 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $350 compared to the national figure of $375.

Grovedale features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 67.7% of all households, including 26.6% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 11.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 27.9% and group households at 4.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Vic.

Grovedale performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Grovedale Trail's educational qualifications trail Victoria's regional benchmarks, with 24.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the state average of 33.4%. This indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement in Grovedale Trail. Bachelor degrees are most common at 16.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.9% and graduate diplomas at 2.8%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 12.1% and certificates at 24.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.9% in primary education, 6.1% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grovedale has 83 active public transport stops serviced by 22 routes. These routes facilitate 2,238 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 191 meters to the nearest stop. The area is predominantly residential, and most commuters travel outward using cars, which remain the dominant mode at 94%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 17.4% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 319 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Grovedale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Grovedale faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~7,774 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and arthritis, affecting 10.5 and 9.1% of residents respectively. However, 61.8% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. Grovedale has 20.5% of residents aged 65 and over (3,145 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Grovedale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Grovedale, as per data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2016, showed lower cultural diversity with 82.6% of its population born in Australia and 89.2% being citizens. English was spoken exclusively at home by 89.4%. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 46.1% of Grovedale's population.

The 'Other' category showed an overrepresentation with 1.1%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 0.8%. Ancestry-wise, English (29.3%), Australian (28.6%), and Scottish (9.0%) were the top three groups. Notably, Dutch (1.9% vs regional 1.7%), Polish (0.8% vs 0.5%), and Croatian (0.5% vs 0.4%) groups were overrepresented in Grovedale.

Grovedale's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Grovedale is 40 years, which is slightly below Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but above the Australian median of 38. The 25-34 cohort is notably higher at 18.8% locally compared to the Rest of Vic. average. Conversely, the 55-64 age group is under-represented at 9.6%. Between the 2021 Census and present, Grovedale has become younger, with median age dropping from 41 to 40. The 25-34 age group increased from 14.3% to 18.8%, while the 35-44 cohort rose from 12.0% to 14.3%. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort declined from 10.9% to 9.6% and the 85+ group decreased from 4.9% to 3.6%. Population forecasts for Grovedale indicate significant demographic changes by 2041. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow considerably, increasing by 2,777 people (96%) from 2,885 to 5,663.