Newcomb

An assessment of population growth drivers in Newcomb reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Newcomb statistical area (Lv2) is around 4665, a decrease of 39 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 4704. This decline is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 4645, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 44 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density for Newcomb (SA2) stands at 1299 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods for this area. AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by these data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, Newcomb (SA2) is expected to experience above median growth for locations outside capital cities, with an increase of 782 persons projected by 2041, reflecting a total rise of 16.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Newcomb, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Newcomb has received approximately 17 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 87 homes. So far in FY26, 9 approvals have been recorded. The area has experienced population decline, suggesting new supply has likely kept up with demand.

Average construction value for new properties is $337,000. In FY26, commercial approvals worth $19.5 million have been registered, indicating moderate commercial development. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Newcomb records significantly lower building activity, 65.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Building activity shows 47.0% standalone homes and 53.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current housing pattern of 83.0% houses. This suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

Newcomb has approximately 464 people per dwelling approval, indicating a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Newcomb is expected to grow by 769 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Newcomb has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects likely affecting this region. Notable projects include Whittington Family and Community Hub, Geelong Ring Road Extension (Bellarine Link), 105 Helms Street Townhouses and Units, Clifton Springs Water Tank Renewal. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Newcomb face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Newcomb has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 7.7%, based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

There are 2,316 residents employed, with an unemployment rate 4.0% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is at par with Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment in Newcomb is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance has particularly high representation, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.8% compared to the regional average of 7.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.6%, alongside a 1.0% decline in employment, causing unemployment to rise by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s employment contracted by 0.7%, with a labour force fall of 0.6% and a marginal rise in unemployment. State-level data from November 25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Newcomb's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Newcomb has a median taxpayer income of $52,810 and an average income of $62,355 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of Vic.'s median income being $50,954 and average income $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $57,167 (median) and $67,499 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Newcomb fall between the 9th and 23rd percentiles nationally. The income distribution shows that 28.2% of residents (1,315 people) earn between $400 - $799, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Newcomb, with only 80.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Newcomb is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Newcomb's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.1% houses and 17.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro Vic., meanwhile, had 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Newcomb was at 31.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.7% and rented ones at 42.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Newcomb was $1,400, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,712. Median weekly rent in Newcomb stood at $320, while Non-Metro Vic.'s figure was $335. Nationally, Newcomb's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Newcomb features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 55.1% of all households, including 16.2% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 13.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 44.9%, with lone person households at 39.6% and group households making up 5.4%. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.4.

Newcomb shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate was 20.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 13.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials were prevalent, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (29.7%). Educational participation was high, with 25.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This included 7.5% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Newcomb shows that there are currently 37 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 19 individual routes providing service to these locations. The combined weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes amount to 1,627.

Residents in Newcomb have excellent access to public transport, with an average distance of 177 meters to the nearest transport stop. On a daily basis, there are approximately 232 trips across all routes, which translates to about 43 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Newcomb is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Newcomb.

A range of health conditions impact both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 52% of the total population (~2,402 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 12.6% and 9.8% of residents respectively. 58.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 65.9% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 21.1% of residents aged 65 and over (984 people), which is higher than the 16.8% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Newcomb ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Newcomb's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.6% of its population being citizens born in Australia who spoke English only at home. The majority religion in Newcomb was Christianity, comprising 44.0% of the population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented compared to the rest of Victoria, making up 0.1% of Newcomb's population.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (29.6%), Australian (26.6%), and Irish (9.5%). Other ethnic groups with notable representation included Dutch (2.4%) and Welsh (0.7%), both overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Newcomb's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Newcomb is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but closely aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Newcomb has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (20.3%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (7.7%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is notably higher than the national average of 14.5%. According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of 25-34 year-olds has increased from 17.9% to 20.3%, while the proportions of those aged 45-54 and 65-74 have decreased from 10.9% to 9.5% and 10.4% to 9.3% respectively. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Newcomb's age structure, with the 25-34 group expected to grow by 41%, reaching 1,332 from 946. Conversely, the 75-84 and 15-24 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.