Newcomb

An assessment of population growth drivers in Newcomb reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Newcomb's population is estimated around 4680 people. This reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census figure of 4704 people, a drop of 24 individuals (0.5%). AreaSearch validated this estimate using ERP data released by ABS in June 2024 and additional 44 addresses since the Census date. The population density is approximately 1303 persons per square kilometer, higher than national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove recent population growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to grow by 781 persons, reflecting a total increase of 16.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Newcomb, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Newcomb received around 14 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years ending FY26. This totals an estimated 74 homes. As of FY26, there have been 4 approvals recorded. The area has experienced population decline, suggesting new supply is keeping up with demand and offering good choice for buyers.

The average construction value of new properties is $337,000, below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options. In FY26, commercial approvals totaled $11.1 million, reflecting steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Rest of Vic., Newcomb has significantly lower building activity (70.0% below the regional average per person), which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is also below national averages, suggesting planning constraints in the area. Detached houses make up 54.0% of new developments, with attached dwellings at 46.0%. The growing mix of townhouses and apartments provides options across different price points, marking a departure from existing housing patterns (currently 83.0% houses).

This may indicate diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. With around 344 people per dwelling approval, Newcomb is characterized as a low-density area. Future projections estimate an increase of 753 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Newcomb has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Three projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area: Whittington Family and Community Hub, Geelong Ring Road Extension (Bellarine Link), 105 Helms Street Townhouses and Units, Clifton Springs Water Tank Renewal.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Newcomb face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Newcomb has a skilled workforce with notable presence in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.8% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.8%.

As of June 2025, 2,371 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 4.0% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Newcomb is at par with Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.2 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.8% versus the regional average of 7.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in Sep-22, employment increased by 1.8% while labour force increased by 2.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.6 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.9%, the labour force fell by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Newcomb's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Newcomb's median taxpayer income was $52,810 and average income was $62,355 in financial year 2022, according to AreaSearch data aggregated from the latest postcode level ATO figures. This is lower than Victoria's overall average of $48,741 median income and $60,693 average income. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $59,232 and average income $69,937, based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census places Newcomb's household, family, and personal incomes between the 9th and 23rd percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 28.2% of residents (1,319 people) fall into the $400 - $799 bracket, unlike regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates at 30.3%. Housing affordability is a significant issue in Newcomb, with only 80.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Newcomb is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Newcomb, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 83.1% houses and 17.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Newcomb stood at 31.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (25.7%) or rented (42.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,400, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,712. The median weekly rent figure in Newcomb was recorded at $320, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $335. Nationally, Newcomb's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Newcomb features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 55.1% of all households, including 16.2% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 13.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 44.9%, with lone person households at 39.6% and group households comprising 5.4%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Newcomb shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate in the year 2000 was 20.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 13.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials were held by 39.8% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 29.7%. Educational participation was high, with 25.9% of residents enrolled in formal education as of the year 2020.

This included 7.5% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education. Newcomb's three schools had a combined enrollment of 868 students as of 2021, serving distinct age groups with balanced educational opportunities, indicated by an ICSEA score of 992. Education provision was balanced, with two primary schools and one secondary school serving the area.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 37 active transport stops operating within Newcomb. These stops are serviced by 6 individual routes, collectively providing 1008 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 177 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 144 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 27 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Newcomb is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Newcomb, with a range of health conditions impacting both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~2,410 people), slightly lagging that of the average SA2 area. Mental health issues affect 12.6% of residents, while arthritis impacts 9.8%. A total of 58.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.9% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 21.1% of residents aged 65 and over (987 people), which is higher than the 16.8% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Newcomb ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Newcomb's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.6% of its population being citizens, 83.0% born in Australia, and 90.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Newcomb, comprising 44.0% of people. However, Judaism was overrepresented, making up 0.1% compared to the regional average of 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (29.6%), Australian (26.6%), and Irish (9.5%). Notably, Dutch (2.4%) and Welsh (0.7%) were overrepresented in Newcomb compared to the regional averages of 2.0% and 0.5%, respectively.

Newcomb's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Newcomb is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Newcomb has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (20.3%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (7.7%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is well above the national average of 14.5%. According to the 2021 Census, the percentage of Newcomb's population in the 25-34 age group has grown from 17.9% to 20.3%, while the percentages for the 45-54 and 65-74 age groups have declined to 9.5% and 9.3%, respectively, down from 10.9% and 10.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Newcomb's age structure. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 40%, reaching 1,332 people from the current 950. Conversely, the 75-84 and 15-24 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.