Thomson (Greater Geelong - Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thomson reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and address validation for the Thomson (Greater Geelong - Vic.) statistical area (Lv2), the estimated population as of November 2025 is around 1,595. This reflects a decrease since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,606 people. The current population was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,661 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 92.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, the Thomson (Greater Geelong - Vic.) (SA2) is expected to grow significantly in line with the top quartile of Australian non-metropolitan areas. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the area is forecasted to grow by 500 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 35.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Thomson, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Thomson had 19 new dwellings approved annually over the period from 2016 to 2020. This low level of development reflects its rural nature, with housing needs driving construction rather than market demand. The small sample size means individual projects can significantly influence annual growth statistics.

Thomson's activity is notably lower than Victoria's average and national averages. New developments consist of 25% detached dwellings and 75% medium to high-density housing, indicating a shift from the area's current housing composition, which is 70% houses. This change may be due to decreasing developable sites and evolving lifestyles requiring diverse housing options. By 2041, Thomson's population is forecasted to increase by 561 residents. If current construction levels continue, housing supply might not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Population forecasts indicate Thomson will gain 561 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Thomson has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region. Key projects include Clifton Springs Water Tank Renewal, Barwon Women's and Children's Hospital, Geelong Line Upgrade (Geelong Fast Rail), and Geelong Smart City Initiative.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Thomson are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Thomson has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 5.2% as of September 2025, and relative employment stability over the past year based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. The unemployment rate is 1.5% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, while workforce participation is broadly similar at 57.4%.

Key industries for Thomson's residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly specialized with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.8% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The area functions as an employment hub with 1.0 workers per resident, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, employment remained stable while labour force increased by 0.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1 percentage points.

This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment fell by 0.7% and unemployment rose marginally despite a contracting labour force. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years for Thomson, based on its current employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Thomson has an income level lower than average nationally, according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ended June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Thomson is $42,395, with an average income of $60,140. For comparison, Rest of Vic.'s figures are $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $45,893 (median) and $65,102 (average). Census data from 2021 shows that income levels in Thomson fall between the 8th and 22nd percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort in Thomson spans 28.9% of locals, with incomes ranging from $800 to $1,499. In contrast, the broader area has a dominant income category of $1,500 to $2,999, at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Thomson, with only 78.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

Thomson displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Thomson, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.6% houses and 30.4% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thomson stood at 21.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.3% and rented ones at 53.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,408, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,712. The median weekly rent in Thomson was $295, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $335. Nationally, Thomson's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,408 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Thomson features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 48.1% of all households, including 14.4% couples with children, 21.4% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 51.9%, with lone person households at 45.3% and group households comprising 7.0%. The median household size is 1.9 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Thomson aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 14.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (29.5%). Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.7% in primary, 6.7% in tertiary, and 4.9% in secondary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 6.7% in tertiary education, and 4.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 15 active stops operating in Thomson, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 16 different routes, collectively providing 1,274 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 159 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 182 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 84 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Thomson is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Thomson faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 51% of Thomson's total population (~807 people), compared to 53.3% across the rest of Victoria and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 14.5 and 10.2% of residents respectively.

Conversely, 57.2% report no medical ailments, compared to 65.9% across the rest of Victoria. Thomson has 16.5% (263 people) of residents aged 65 and over, with senior health outcomes presenting challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Thomson ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thomson's population was found to be predominantly culturally homogeneous, with 86.3% being Australian citizens, 84.2% born in Australia, and 92.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 40.3% of Thomson's population. However, Judaism was notably overrepresented, making up 0.3% compared to 0.1% across the rest of Victoria.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (28.9%), Australian (27.6%), and Irish (10.8%). Notably, Dutch individuals made up 2.2% of Thomson's population, higher than the regional average of 2.0%, Scottish individuals comprised 9.4%, compared to 8.3% regionally, and Maltese individuals were present at 0.8%, higher than the regional average of 0.5%.

Thomson's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Thomson is 37 years, which is lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and close to the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are prominent at 22.6%, while those aged 5-14 are smaller at 7.0%. This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between 2021 and present, the median age has decreased by 1.1 years to 37, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. During this period, the 25-34 age group grew from 19.4% to 22.6%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 14.7% to 15.8%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 10.2% to 8.2% and the 5-14 group dropped from 8.4% to 7.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Thomson. Notably, the 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 69%, reaching 610 people from 360. Meanwhile, the 85+ cohort shows minimal growth of just 3% (0 people).