Thomson (Greater Geelong - Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Thomson reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the suburb of Thomson (Greater Geelong - Vic.) is around 1,613 people. This reflects an increase of 7 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,606 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,618 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,680 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 92.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, the suburb is expected to grow significantly in line with the top quartile of Australian non-metropolitan areas, with an increase of 497 persons forecasted by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 33.5% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thomson according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Thomson averaged approximately seven new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 38 homes were approved, with no approvals recorded so far in FY-26. On average, 1.3 new residents arrived annually for each new home over these five years, indicating a balance between supply and demand.

The average construction value of new properties was $533,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting focus on quality developments. This year, $24.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, signifying balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Thomson has significantly less development activity, at 56.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, although building activity has increased recently. The current new building activity comprises 12.0% detached dwellings and 88.0% townhouses or apartments, a shift from the current housing mix of 70.0% houses. Thomson's population density is around 173 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Thomson is forecasted to gain approximately 540 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Thomson has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. One project has been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting this area. Notable projects include Clifton Springs Water Tank Renewal, Barwon Women's and Children's Hospital, Geelong Smart City Initiative, and Geelong Line Upgrade (Geelong Fast Rail). The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Thomson are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Thomson has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.4% as of June 2024.

Employment growth over the past year is estimated at 2.4%. As of June 2025890 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.6% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Thomson is similar to Rest of Vic., at 57.4%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction has a particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence with 0.8% employment compared to 7.5% regionally. There is one worker for every resident in Thomson as of the Census. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.4% and labour force increased by 3.0%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s employment contracted by 0.9%, labour force fell by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thomson's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Thomson's median income among taxpayers was $42,395 and average income stood at $60,140 in financial year 2022. These figures were below the Rest of Vic.'s median income of $48,741 and average income of $60,693 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth suggest Thomson's median income would be approximately $47,550 and average income $67,453. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Thomson fell between the 8th and 22nd percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The predominant income cohort in Thomson was 28.9% of locals (466 people) earning $800 - 1,499, differing from the surrounding region where 30.3% earned $1,500 - 2,999. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Thomson, with only 78.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

Thomson displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Thomson, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.6% houses and 30.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thomson was at 21.2%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (25.3%) or rented (53.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,408, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,712. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $295, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $335. Nationally, Thomson's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Thomson features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 48.1 percent of all households, including 14.4 percent couples with children, 21.4 percent couples without children, and 10.6 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 51.9 percent, with lone person households at 45.3 percent and group households comprising 7.0 percent of the total. The median household size is 1.9 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Thomson aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.0% and certificates at 29.5%. Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.7% in primary, 6.7% in tertiary, and 4.9% in secondary education. Thomson's three schools have a combined enrollment of 555 students, serving typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1007) with balanced educational opportunities. The area functions as an education hub with 34.4 school places per 100 residents, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thomson has 15 active public transport stops. All are bus stops. They are served by five different routes that together facilitate 819 weekly passenger trips.

The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents usually located 159 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 117 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 54 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Thomson is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Thomson faces significant health challenges, with a variety of health conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low, at approximately 51% of the total population (~816 people), compared to 52.7% across the rest of Victoria.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 14.5% and 10.2% of residents respectively. Conversely, 57.2% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 65.9% across the rest of Victoria. Thomson has 16.5% of residents aged 65 and over (266 people), with health outcomes among seniors presenting challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Thomson ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thomson's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.3% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia, and speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Thomson, comprising 40.3% of the population. However, Judaism is overrepresented in Thomson, making up 0.3% compared to 0.1% across the rest of Victoria.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (28.9%), Australian (27.6%), and Irish (10.8%). Notably, Dutch (2.2%) and Scottish (9.4%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Thomson compared to regional averages of 2.0% and 8.3%, respectively. Maltese ethnicity is also slightly overrepresented at 0.8%.

Thomson's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Thomson is 37 years, which is lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and close to the national average of 38. The age profile shows that individuals aged 25-34 are prominent at 22.6%, while those aged 5-14 are smaller in number at 7.1%. This is higher than Rest of Vic.'s percentage for the 25-34 age group, which stands at 14.5%. Between 2021 and present, the median age has decreased by 1.1 years from 38 to 37, indicating a younger demographic shift. Key changes include an increase in the 25-34 age group from 19.4% to 22.6%, and an increase in the 35-44 cohort from 14.7% to 15.8%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 10.2% to 8.2%, and the 5-14 group has dropped from 8.4% to 7.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Thomson. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 67% (245 people), reaching 610 from 364, while the 55-64 cohort will show minimal growth of just 0% (0 people).