Geelong

Geelong lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the estimated population of Geelong as of February 2026 is around 5,801. This reflects a decrease of 10 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,811. The change is inferred from the resident population of 5,796 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 22 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,752 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for Geelong was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 92.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, Geelong is forecasted to experience significant population increase in the top quartile of locations outside capital cities, with an expected growth of 1,728 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 31.4% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Geelong when compared nationally

Geelong has averaged approximately 35 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 175 homes were approved, with one more in FY-26 so far. On average, about 0.9 people have moved to the area per dwelling built over these five years.

This suggests that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing buyers with more options while potentially driving population growth beyond current projections. The average expected construction cost of new dwellings is $533,000, indicating a focus on premium market properties. In FY-26, there have been $57.8 million in commercial approvals, reflecting strong local business investment. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Geelong has about 57% of building activity per person, placing it among the top 89th percentile nationally. Recent construction consists of approximately 8.0% detached houses and 92.0% medium and high-density housing.

This shift from existing patterns (currently 52.0% houses) suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and affordability needs. Geelong has about 81 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Geelong is projected to grow by 1,824 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Geelong has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

A total of 36 projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. These include major initiatives such as the Nyaal Banyul Geelong Convention and Event Centre Precinct, Barwon Women's and Children's Hospital, Nyaal Banyul Geelong Convention and Event Centre, and Cunningham Place. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Geelong lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Geelong has a highly educated workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 5.6%, as per AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, there are 3429 residents in work, with an unemployment rate at 1.9% above Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation stands at 69.6%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. Census responses indicate that a moderate 24.5% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. Notably, employment levels in health care & social assistance are at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 1% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. There are 2.7 workers for every resident, indicating that Geelong functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.8%, with employment decreasing by a similar amount, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Geelong's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.3% over five years and 14.9% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Geelong's median income is $54,980 and average income is $77,993. This compares to Rest of Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Geelong are approximately $59,516 (median) and $84,427 (average) as of September 2025. Census data indicates personal income ranks at the 61st percentile ($865 weekly), while household income sits at the 45th percentile. Income analysis reveals 30.8% of Geelong's population falls within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the surrounding region where 30.3% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 46th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Geelong displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Geelong's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 52.1% houses and 47.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Geelong stood at 34.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 20.7% and rented ones at 44.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,863, while the median weekly rent figure was $370, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s $285 and the national average of $375.

Geelong features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 53.3% of all households, including 17.9% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 6.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 46.7%, with lone person households at 39.3% and group households at 7.4%. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Geelong shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Geelong is significantly higher than broader benchmarks. As of a certain date, 41.9% of residents aged 15 and above held university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the rest of Victoria and 27.3% in the SA3 area. This high educational attainment positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 26.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 10.7% and graduate diplomas at 4.6%. Trade and technical skills are also prominent, with 27.3% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 16.5%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.0% in tertiary education, 5.4% in primary education, and 4.5% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Geelong shows that there are 47 active transport stops currently operating. These stops offer a mix of train services. They are served by 48 individual routes combined, providing a total of 10,057 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 195 meters from the nearest transport stop. As Geelong is primarily residential, most residents commute outward. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 70%, while walking accounts for 21% and cycling makes up just 2%.

The average vehicle ownership per dwelling stands at 1.0, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, some 24.5% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. On average, service frequency across all routes amounts to 1,436 trips per day, equating to approximately 213 weekly trips per individual stop.

Geelong's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Geelong. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age cohorts.

Private health cover was found to be very high at approximately 58% of the total population (~3,341 people), compared to 50.5% across Rest of Vic.. The most common medical conditions in the area were mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.8 and 8.0% of residents respectively. 68.6% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of Vic.. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. As of 2021, the area has 18.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,078 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Geelong was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Geelong's cultural diversity was found to be above average, with 24.0% of its population born overseas and 17.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the main religion in Geelong, comprising 46.3% of people. Judaism was overrepresented compared to the rest of Victoria, making up 0.3% of Geelong's population versus 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (26.4%), Australian (22.5%), and Irish (10.6%). Notably, Croatian (1.2%) and Dutch (1.7%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages, while Italian was also notably present at 4.5% versus the regional average of 2.9%.

Geelong's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Geelong's median age is 38, which is lower than Victoria's (excluding Melbourne) figure of 43 but matches the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 23.5% of Geelong's population, higher than Victoria's excluding Melbourne at 19%, and significantly more than the national average of 14.4%. The 5-14 age group is less prevalent in Geelong at 5.3%. After the 2021 Census, younger residents lowered the median age by 1.8 years to 38. Specifically, the 25-34 age group grew from 19% to 23.5%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 10.6% to 12.1%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 11.5% to 9.5%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 13.9% to 11.9%. By 2041, Geelong's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 59%, adding 800 residents to reach 2,164. The 55-64 group is expected to grow more modestly at 3%, adding only 18 residents.