Manifold Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manifold Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Manifold Heights is around 2,863. This figure reflects an increase of 182 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,681. The latest estimate comes from AreaSearch following examination of the ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of four new addresses since the Census date. This results in a resident population estimate of 2,858 for Manifold Heights. The suburb's population density is 3,045 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Since the 2021 census, Manifold Heights has seen a growth rate of 6.8%, exceeding the non-metro area average of 6.0%.

Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in the suburb. AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Manifold Heights is forecasted to increase its population by 761 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 23.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manifold Heights recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Manifold Heights averaged approximately 18 new dwelling approvals per year. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, around 90 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved in FY-26 so far. This results in about 1.7 people moving to the area for each dwelling built over these five years.

The market balance supports stable conditions. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost of $547,000, slightly above the regional average. In FY-26, there have been $247,000 in commercial approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity.

Compared to Rest of Vic., Manifold Heights records about 63% of building activity per person and ranks among the 71st percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 78.0% detached dwellings and 22.0% townhouses or apartments. The area has approximately 184 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. By 2041, Manifold Heights is expected to grow by 668 residents. Construction maintains a reasonable pace with projected growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as population increases.

Manifold Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified two major projects that could significantly impact the area's performance. These include Northern and Western Geelong Growth Areas, Barwon Health North, The Mill Newtown, and Geelong Ring Road - Stage 4C (Heales Road to Anglesea Road).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Manifold Heights has been broadly consistent with national averages

Manifold Heights has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.5%, lower than the national average.

In the past year ending June 2025, employment grew by 1.9%. As of June 2025, 1,529 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.2% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, and a workforce participation rate of 68.9% compared to the regional average of 57.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area specializes in education & training with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.7% compared to the regional average of 7.5%.

Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 1.9%, and labour force increased by 2.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.9% and a labour force decline of 0.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manifold Heights' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, assuming no changes in population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Manifold Heights' median income among taxpayers was $61,222. The average income was $77,805. Nationally, this is extremely high compared to the Rest of Vic.'s median of $48,741 and average of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Manifold Heights would be approximately $68,667 (median) and $87,266 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, personal income ranks at the 77th percentile ($984 weekly), while household income sits at the 54th percentile. Income brackets indicate that 28.8% of individuals in Manifold Heights earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually (824 individuals). This pattern is similar to the region where 30.3% occupy this income range. After housing costs, 85.7% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Manifold Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Manifold Heights, as per the latest Census, 74.4% of dwellings were houses while 25.6% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro Vic.'s 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manifold Heights was 33.0%, similar to Non-Metro Vic., with mortgaged properties at 34.8% and rented ones at 32.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,990, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,712. Weekly rent in Manifold Heights stood at $310, lower than the Non-Metro Vic. figure of $335. Nationally, Manifold Heights' mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were below the national figure of $375.

Manifold Heights features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 66.1% of all households, including 33.0% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.9%, with lone person households at 31.2% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Manifold Heights shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Manifold Heights has a significantly higher educational attainment than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15 and above, 39.1% hold university qualifications compared to 21.7% in the rest of Victoria and 27.3% in the SA3 area. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 26.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 8.5% and graduate diplomas at 4.6%. Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 30.7% of residents holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.1% and certificates at 18.6%. Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.7% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education. Manifold Heights Primary School serves the local area, enrolling 457 students as of a specific date. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with an Index of Community Socio-Educational Advantage (ICSEA) score of 1070, indicating above-average socio-educational conditions. Secondary educational options are available in surrounding areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 17 active transport stops operating within Manifold Heights. These stops serve a mix of bus routes. There are 3 individual routes providing a total of 1003 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 155 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 143 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 59 weekly trips per stop.

Manifold Heights's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows Manifold Heights residents have relatively positive health outcomes with low prevalence of common conditions among the general population. However, older, at-risk cohorts have higher rates compared to national averages.

Private health cover is high, at approximately 58% (1,647 people), compared to Rest of Vic.'s 52.7%. The most common conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.3% and 8.2% respectively. 71.2% report no medical ailments, higher than Rest of Vic.'s 65.9%. The area has 14.1% residents aged 65 and over (403 people), lower than Rest of Vic.'s 16.8%.

Manifold Heights ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Manifold Heights showed lower-than-average cultural diversity, with 86.4% of its population born in Australia, 90.5% being citizens, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 53.2%. Judaism, however, was slightly overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to 0.1% regionally.

Top ancestry groups were English (27.4%), Australian (24.8%), and Irish (12.0%). Notable differences existed in Dutch (2.3% vs regional 2.0%), Croatian (1.4% vs 1.5%), and Macedonian (1.1% vs 0.6%) representation.

Manifold Heights's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Manifold Heights has a median age of 38, which is lower than the Rest of Vic. figure of 43 but matches the national norm of 38. The 35-44 age group makes up 16.4% of the population in Manifold Heights compared to Rest of Vic., while the 65-74 cohort comprises 8.3%. According to the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 12.6% to 14.7%, and the 35 to 44 cohort has risen from 14.8% to 16.4%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 13.1% to 11.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Manifold Heights' age profile. The 25 to 34 age group is expected to grow by 49%, adding 208 people and reaching a total of 629 from the current 420. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 age range is projected to decrease by 7%.