Manifold Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manifold Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of Manifold Heights is estimated at around 2,952 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 271 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,681 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,815 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 4 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,140 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 10.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of Vic.'s (8.1%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas is forecast. The suburb is expected to expand by 747 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 19.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manifold Heights recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Manifold Heights has experienced around 17 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 86 homes between FY-21 and FY-25. So far in FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.7 new residents are associated with each dwelling constructed annually during this period.

This suggests a balanced supply and demand dynamic, contributing to stable market conditions. The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $547,000, indicating developers focus on the premium market segment. In FY-26, commercial approvals have reached $2.6 million, reflecting Manifold Heights' primarily residential nature.

Compared to Rest of Vic., Manifold Heights exhibits approximately 60% of construction activity per person and ranks among the 76th percentile nationally when assessed areas are considered. New building activity comprises 78.0% standalone homes and 22.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes. With around 157 people per dwelling approval, Manifold Heights exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Future projections estimate Manifold Heights will add 563 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Building activity appears to be keeping pace with population growth projections, although heightened competition among buyers may result as the population expands.

Manifold Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified two projects that could impact the area. These include Northern and Western Geelong Growth Areas, Barwon Health North, Geelong Ring Road - Stage 4C (Heales Road to Anglesea Road), and Marshall Street Social Housing Renewal. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Manifold Heights presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 3.5%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

Manifold Heights has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.5%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, 1,512 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.2% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in the area is high at 70.3%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. Census responses show that 26.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. The leading employment industries among residents are health care and social assistance, education and training, and construction. Notably, the area has a strong specialization in education and training, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry, and fishing employ only 0.7% of local workers, lower than Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.5%, with employment decreasing by 0.8%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced a marginal rise in unemployment despite employment and labour force declines of 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Manifold Heights' employment mix indicates potential local employment increases of 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Manifold Heights is $61,222, with an average of $77,805 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is higher than the national average, contrasting with Rest of Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% from financial year 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $66,273 for the median and $84,224 for the average. Census data shows personal income ranks at the 77th percentile ($984 weekly), while household income sits at the 54th percentile. Income analysis reveals that 28.8% of the community (850 individuals) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to the broader area where 30.3% fall into this bracket. After housing costs, 85.7% of income remains for other expenses. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Manifold Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Manifold Heights, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 74.4% houses and 25.6% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Manifold Heights was 33.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.8% and rented dwellings at 32.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,990, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $310, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Manifold Heights's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Manifold Heights features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 66.1% of all households, including 33.0% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 33.9%, with lone person households at 31.2% and group households at 2.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Manifold Heights shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Manifold Heights has a higher educational attainment than broader averages. Among residents aged 15+, 39.1% have university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the rest of Victoria and 27.3% in the SA3 area. Bachelor degrees are most common at 26.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas account for 12.1% and certificates for 18.6%. Educational participation is high, with 30.2% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.7% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that there are currently 17 operational public transport stops within Manifold Heights. These stops are served by three distinct routes combined, offering a total of 639 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to transport is considered excellent, with residents typically residing just 155 meters away from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most residents commute outward, primarily using cars at a rate of 90%, while walking accounts for 5%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, lower than the regional norm. Notably, as per the 2021 Census data, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions, 26.1% of residents work from home.

The service frequency averages 91 trips daily across all routes, translating to approximately 37 weekly trips per individual stop.

Manifold Heights's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows Manifold Heights residents have relatively positive health outcomes, with AreaSearch's analysis indicating mortality rates and health conditions are broadly in line with national benchmarks. The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low among the general population but higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover is very high, with approximately 58% of the total population (~1,698 people), compared to 50.5% across Rest of Vic.. The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 8.3 and 8.2% of residents respectively, while 71.2% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of Vic.. Under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 13.8% of residents aged 65 and over (407 people), lower than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic., but ranks lower nationally than the broader population.

Manifold Heights ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Manifold Heights showed low cultural diversity, with 86.4% born in Australia, 90.5% being citizens, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion at 53.2%. Judaism was overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to 0.1% regionally.

Top ancestry groups were English (27.4%), Australian (24.8%), and Irish (12.0%). Dutch, Croatian, and Macedonian ethnicities were notably overrepresented at 2.3%, 1.4%, and 1.1% respectively.

Manifold Heights's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Manifold Heights has a median age of 38, which is lower than the Rest of Vic figure of 43 but equivalent to the national norm of 38. The 35-44 age group constitutes 16.9%, higher than Rest of Vic., while the 65-74 cohort makes up 8.2%. According to the 2021 Census, younger residents have reduced the median age by 1.2 years to 38. The 25 to 34 age group has grown from 12.6% to 15.6%, and the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 14.8% to 16.9%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 13.1% to 11.2%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 13.2% to 11.8%. By 2041, Manifold Heights is projected to see significant shifts in its age composition. The 25 to 34 cohort is expected to grow by 37%, adding 170 residents to reach 631. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 cohort is projected to decline by 10 people.