Manifold Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Manifold Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the Manifold Heights statistical area (Lv2) had an estimated population of around 2,952 as of November 2025. This reflected an increase of 271 people (10.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,681 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 2,815 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional four validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 3,140 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Manifold Heights (SA2) had a growth rate exceeding the SA3 area (7.9%) and the non-metro area since the 2021 Census, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilised the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas was forecasted, with the area expected to expand by 751 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 19.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manifold Heights recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Manifold Heights has experienced around 17 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years ending June 2025. This totals an estimated 86 homes. So far in FY-26, which started on July 1st 2025 and is ongoing, 6 approvals have been recorded. Given an average of 1.7 new residents per year per dwelling constructed between the financial years ending June 2021 to June 2025 inclusive, supply and demand appear well-balanced in Manifold Heights, creating stable market conditions.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $547,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. There have also been $2.6 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature. When measured against Rest of Vic., Manifold Heights shows approximately 60% of the construction activity per person while it places among the 76th percentile of areas assessed nationally.

New building activity shows 78.0% standalone homes and 22.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 157 people per dwelling approval, Manifold Heights shows characteristics of a growth area. Future projections show Manifold Heights adding 569 residents by the year 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Manifold Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Two projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area: Northern and Western Geelong Growth Areas, Barwon Health North, Geelong Ring Road - Stage 4C (Heales Road to Anglesea Road), and Marshall Street Social Housing Renewal.

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The employment landscape in Manifold Heights presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 3.6%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

Manifold Heights has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.6%, as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025, 1,505 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.2% lower than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation is high at 68.9%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Education & training has a strong presence with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.7% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The area's predominantly residential nature suggests limited local employment opportunities. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.8%, with employment down 1.1%, raising unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. State-wide, VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year as of 25-Nov, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts suggest employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manifold Heights' employment mix indicates potential local growth of 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Manifold Heights shows a median taxpayer income of $61,222 and an average of $77,805 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is well above national averages; Rest of Vic.'s median income was $50,954 with an average of $62,728 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $66,273 (median) and $84,224 (average). Census data indicates personal income ranks at the 77th percentile ($984 weekly), while household income sits at the 54th percentile. Income analysis shows that 28.8% of Manifold Heights residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week (850 individuals), similar to the broader area where 30.3% fall into this bracket. After housing expenses, 85.7% of income remains for other expenses. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Manifold Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Manifold Heights, as per the latest Census, consisted of 74.4% houses and 25.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manifold Heights stood at 33.0%, similar to Non-Metro Vic., with mortgaged dwellings at 34.8% and rented ones at 32.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,990, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,712. Median weekly rent in Manifold Heights was $310, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s $335. Nationally, mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially lower at $375.

Manifold Heights features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 66.1% of all households, including 33.0% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 33.9%, with lone person households at 31.2% and group households making up 2.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Vic.

Manifold Heights shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Manifold Heights exceeds broader benchmarks significantly. Specifically, 39.1% of residents aged 15+ possess university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the Rest of Vic. and 27.3% in the SA3 area. This educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most common at 26.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%).

Trade and technical skills are also prominent, with 30.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (18.6%). Educational participation is notably high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 17 active stops operating within Manifold Heights. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling three unique lines that facilitate 639 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is deemed excellent, with residents situated an average of 155 meters from their nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages at 91 trips daily across all routes, translating to approximately 37 weekly trips per individual stop.

Manifold Heights's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows Manifold Heights residents have relatively positive health outcomes. The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low among the general population but higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 58% (~1698 people) have private health cover, compared to 53.3% in Rest of Vic. Asthma and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions, affecting 8.3 and 8.2% of residents respectively. 71.2% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.9% across Rest of Vic. The area has 14.1% (416 people) aged 65 and over, lower than the 16.8% in Rest of Vic., but requiring more attention nonetheless.

Manifold Heights ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Manifold Heights showed cultural diversity levels below average, with 86.4% of its population born in Australia, 90.5% being citizens, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 53.2% of Manifold Heights' population. Judaism showed overrepresentation, making up 0.2% compared to the Rest of Vic.'s 0.1%.

Top three ancestry groups were English (27.4%), Australian (24.8%), and Irish (12.0%). Notable divergences included Dutch at 2.3% (vs regional 2.0%), Croatian at 1.4% (vs 1.5%), and Macedonian at 1.1% (vs 0.6%).

Manifold Heights's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Manifold Heights has a median age of 38, which is lower than the Rest of Vic. figure of 43 but matches the national norm of 38. The 35-44 age group comprises 16.4%, compared to Rest of Vic., while the 65-74 cohort makes up 8.3%. Post the 2021 Census, the 25-34 age group grew from 12.6% to 14.8%, and the 35-44 cohort increased from 14.8% to 16.4%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 13.1% to 11.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Manifold Heights' age profile. Notably, the 25-34 group is expected to grow by 43%, reaching 625 from 436. Population declines are projected for the 15-24 and 55-64 cohorts.