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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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2021 Census | -- people
Sales Activity
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Population
An assessment of population growth drivers in Manifold Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends
As per ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Manifold Heights had an estimated population of around 2,636 as of May 2026. This figure represents a decrease of 45 people (1.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,681 people. The current resident population estimate of 2,635 by AreaSearch is based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional four validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,804 persons per square kilometer, placing Manifold Heights in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.
AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, making adjustments employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, significant population increase is forecast for the top quartile of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with Manifold Heights expected to increase by 620 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 23.5% in total over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Development
AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manifold Heights recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide
AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Manifold Heights shows around 17 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 86 homes were approved, with 6 more approved so far in FY-26. On average, about 1.4 people moved to the area per dwelling built over these five years.
This suggests a balanced supply and demand creating stable market conditions. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $547,000, indicating a focus on premium segment properties. In FY-26, $2.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting limited commercial development focus compared to residential.
Compared to the Rest of Vic., Manifold Heights has approximately 62% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 76th percentile nationally. New developments consist of 77.0% detached houses and 23.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 159 people per dwelling approval, Manifold Heights is considered a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Manifold Heights is projected to add 619 residents by 2041. Development is keeping pace with projected growth, but increasing competition among buyers may arise as the population expands.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Manifold Heights
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
Infrastructure
Manifold Heights has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally
Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified two major projects likely impacting the region: Northern and Western Geelong Growth Areas, and Barwon Health North. Other notable projects include Marshall Street Social Housing Renewal and Latrobe Boulevard Riverside Development.
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INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Northern and Western Geelong Growth Areas
The largest greenfield urban growth project in regional Victoria, spanning approximately 5,500 hectares across the Northern (Lovely Banks) and Western (Batesford/Fyansford) corridors. Designed to accommodate 110,000 new residents across approximately 40,000 dwellings. Four Precinct Structure Plans (PSPs) are in active preparation. Amendment C450ggee (Creamery Road PSP) completed public exhibition from 18 December 2025 to 9 February 2026 following Ministerial consent on 8 December 2025; the Standing Advisory Committee will conduct a Referral 2 hearing before the amendment can be adopted. The Elcho Road East PSP is progressing despite topographic and biodiversity challenges. Medium-term precincts (Batesford North, Elcho Road West and Heales Road West) are advancing technical studies. A revised Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Strategic Assessment underwent public exhibition in November-December 2025, with Council and Federal Minister endorsement expected in 2026.
South Geelong to Waurn Ponds Duplication (Geelong Line Upgrade)
The South Geelong to Waurn Ponds Duplication project duplicated 8km of track, upgraded South Geelong and Marshall stations, and rebuilt the Waurn Ponds station precinct. Key works included removing level crossings at Fyans Street and Surf Coast Highway with elevated rail bridges, upgrading signalling, and adding 500+ car spaces. The project also delivered 5km of shared user paths and 10 hectares of native landscaping. These upgrades enable 10-minute peak frequency and extra services for Marshall and Waurn Ponds. Major construction finished in August 2024, with services fully resumed.
Barwon Health North
Barwon Health North is a state-of-the-art healthcare facility providing urgent care, renal dialysis, medical imaging, pathology, and child and family services. It serves as a community-based ambulatory care hub designed to reduce pressure on University Hospital Geelong while meeting the needs of Geelong's northern suburbs. Recent expansions include the relocation of public dental services to the site to improve community access.
University Hospital Geelong Children's Emergency Department
A $20 million dedicated paediatric emergency department at University Hospital Geelong. The facility features 28 dedicated treatment spaces, including two fast-track and eight short-stay beds. It includes a separate paediatric triage system, dedicated waiting and play areas, and a calming design intended to reduce anxiety for children and families. The project was delivered by the Victorian Health Building Authority in partnership with Barwon Health and Kane Constructions.
Geelong Line Upgrade
A staged upgrade of the Geelong Line, Victoria's busiest regional passenger rail corridor, jointly funded by the Australian and Victorian Governments at a total cost of around 933.6 million dollars. Major works completed in late 2024 included the South Geelong to Waurn Ponds Duplication of around 8km of track, the rebuilding of South Geelong and Marshall stations with new buildings, second platforms and accessible overpasses, the removal of two level crossings at Fyans Street and Surf Coast Highway via elevated rail bridges, signalling upgrades, more than 5km of new shared walking and cycling paths, and the new Waurn Ponds train maintenance and stabling facility. The duplication has enabled five peak and three off-peak services per hour to Marshall and Waurn Ponds. A Stage 3 business case examining further upgrades to the 400m Geelong rail tunnel and the Barwon River rail bridge was due for completion in early 2026. The earlier Geelong Fast Rail proposal, which targeted a 50-minute Melbourne-Geelong journey, had its federal funding withdrawn in late 2023 and is not part of the delivered scope.
Geelong Renewables Terminal
GeelongPort is proposing a 25-hectare offshore wind farm terminal at its Oyster Cove site in North Geelong to support Victoria's Gippsland and Southern Ocean offshore wind zones. The brownfield site features an existing 12.3-metre-deep berth pocket requiring no dredging, and is designed to handle the marshalling, storage and assembly of wind turbine foundations and generator components. The terminal is being progressed through a streamlined environmental approvals pathway and is positioned as a cornerstone of Victoria's multi-port strategy supporting the state's target of 2 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2032, scaling to 9 GW by 2040. Forecast to generate around 4,200 direct and indirect construction jobs and 850 ongoing operational roles. In March 2026, GeelongPort signed a memorandum of understanding with The Gordon TAFE to co-develop a Renewables Research and Education Campus on the terminal site. Project timing is now tied to Victoria's first offshore wind auction, with the Request for Tender scheduled to open in August 2026 and contracts awarded before October 2026. GeelongPort has identified a pathway to operational readiness by early 2029.
Creamery Road Precinct Structure Plan
The Creamery Road Precinct Structure Plan (PSP) is the initial development within the Western Geelong Growth Area, covering 344.57 hectares. The project aims to deliver over 4,200 dwellings for approximately 11,770 residents. Key features include two primary schools, a local town center, a community hub, and significant sporting reserves. The plan emphasizes sustainable transit via a central boulevard with dedicated cycle and walking paths. A major focus is the conservation of Cowies Creek to protect the Growling Grass Frog habitat. As of February 2026, the project is undergoing a full review by the Standing Advisory Committee following a public exhibition period that concluded in early February 2026.
The Mill Newtown
A significant riverfront mixed-use development transforming the historic former woollen mill site. The Hamilton Group acquired the site for approximately $32 million in mid-2025 and is developing a revised vision. The initial focus is on the existing mill building for commercial, retail, and hospitality uses, similar to their Federal Mills precinct, aiming to restore the heritage red brickwork and internal gardens. This will be followed by a staged construction of fewer apartments, estimated at 100-150 dwellings in four or five seven-storey blocks facing the Barwon River. The original permit for 343 dwellings has been superseded by these new plans which require a fresh planning permit.
Employment
The labour market in Manifold Heights demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia
Manifold Heights has a well-educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.6%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data as of December 2025. In this month, 1,394 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.1% lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.
The workforce participation rate is high at 69.7%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. Census responses indicate that 26.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction sectors. Notably, education & training has a high concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.
Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.7% versus the regional average of 7.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as suggested by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending in May-25, labour force decreased by 2.8% and employment fell by 2.9%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment fell by 0.6%, labour force contracted by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manifold Heights' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Income
Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch
AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Manifold Heights had a median taxpayer income of $61,222 and an average income of $77,805. These figures are higher than the national averages of $50,954 and $62,728 in Regional Vic. respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated median income as of March 2026 is approximately $67,112 and average income is $85,290. According to the 2021 Census, personal income ranks at the 77th percentile ($984 weekly) and household income at the 54th percentile. Income distribution shows that 28.8% of individuals (759 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to regional levels where this cohort represents 30.3%. After housing costs, 85.7% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Housing
Manifold Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region
Manifold Heights' dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 74.4% houses and 25.6% other dwellings. In comparison, Regional Vic.'s dwelling composition was 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manifold Heights stood at 33.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.8% and rented ones at 32.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,990, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Manifold Heights was $310, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Manifold Heights' mortgage repayments were higher at $1,990 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $310 compared to the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Household Composition
Manifold Heights features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size
Family households account for 66.1% of all households, including 33.0% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.9%, with lone person households at 31.2% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional Vic. average.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
Local Schools & Education
Manifold Heights shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators
Educational attainment in Manifold Heights is significantly higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 39.1% hold university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the Rest of Vic. and 27.3% in the SA3 area. This educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 26.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%).
Trade and technical skills are also prominent, with 30.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 12.1% and certificates at 18.6%. Educational participation is notably high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Nearby Services & Amenities
Transport
Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility
Manifold Heights has 17 active public transport stops. These are served by three routes offering a total of 639 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is excellent with residents usually located 155 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, predominantly using cars (90%). Five percent walk. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.3, below the regional average.
According to the 2021 Census, 26.1% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 91 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 37 weekly trips per stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
Health
Manifold Heights's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts
Health data shows Manifold Heights residents have relatively positive health outcomes, with mortality rates and health conditions broadly aligning with national benchmarks. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher among older, at-risk cohorts compared to national averages.
Private health cover is very high in the area, with approximately 58% of the total population (~1,516 people) having it, compared to 50.5% across Regional Vic.. The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.3% and 8.2% of residents respectively, while 71.2% report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic.. Health outcomes for the under-65 population are better than average. The area has 14.7% of residents aged 65 and over (387 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic., but still ranks lower nationally compared to the broader population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cultural Diversity
Manifold Heights ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics
Manifold Heights showed lower cultural diversity, with 86.4% born in Australia, 90.5% being citizens, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 53.2%. Judaism, however, was slightly overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to 0.1% regionally.
The top three ancestral groups were English (27.4%), Australian (24.8%), and Irish (12.0%). Other ethnicities with notable differences included Dutch (2.3% vs regional 1.7%), Croatian (1.4% vs 0.4%), and Macedonian (1.1% vs 0.2%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
Age
Manifold Heights's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms
Manifold Heights has a median age of 38, which is lower than the Regional Victoria figure of 43 but equivalent to the national norm also at 38 years. The age group of 35-44 shows strong representation in Manifold Heights at 16.8%, compared to Regional Vic., while the 65-74 cohort is less prevalent at 8.7%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 35 to 44 has increased from 14.8% to 16.8%, and the age group of 25 to 34 has risen from 12.6% to 14.1%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 13.2% to 11.7%, and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 13.1% to 11.9%. Demographic modeling indicates that Manifold Heights' age profile will significantly evolve by 2041, with the leading demographic shift being the 25 to 34 age group growing by 45%, adding 167 people and reaching a total of 539 from its current figure of 371. The 65 to 74 group is projected to grow more modestly at 1%, with an increase of only 2 residents.