Herne Hill (Vic.)

Herne Hill has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of Herne Hill (Vic.) is estimated at around 3,777 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 270 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,507 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,555 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 21 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,518 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Herne Hill's growth rate of 7.7% since census positions it within 0.4 percentage points of the Rest of Vic.'s 8.1%. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, a significant population increase is forecast for the suburb of Herne Hill (Vic.), expected to increase by 1,046 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 21.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Herne Hill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Herne Hill shows around 14 residential properties granted approval each year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 71 homes. By FY26, 2 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.1 new residents arrive per dwelling constructed annually between FY21 and FY25. This demand exceeds supply, potentially driving price growth and increased buyer competition.

Developers focus on the premium market with an average construction value of $547,000 for new homes. In FY26, commercial approvals totalled $1.3 million, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Rest of Vic., Herne Hill has 62.0% less construction per person. This constrained supply may reinforce demand and pricing for existing properties.

New developments consist of 83.0% detached houses and 17.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's suburban nature. There are approximately 316 people per dwelling approval, indicating room for growth. Future projections estimate Herne Hill will add 824 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Herne Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Two projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely impacting the area: Northern and Western Geelong Growth Areas; Barwon Health North. Additional projects include Geelong Ring Road - Stage 4C (Heales Road to Anglesea Road), Marshall Street Social Housing Renewal.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Herne Hill shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Herne Hill has an educated workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.4% as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 2,128 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.2% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation was high at 74.5%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. According to Census responses, 21.6% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries for employment were health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence with only 0.7% employment compared to the regional average of 7.5%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.6%, alongside a 0.7% employment decline, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 3.4%. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with a slight increase in unemployment to 3.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Herne Hill's employment mix indicates potential local employment growth of 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Herne Hill suburb's income level is above national average based on latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Median income among taxpayers is $54,129, average income stands at $68,791. These figures compare to Regional Vic.'s median of $50,954 and average of $62,728. With an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, current estimates are approximately $58,595 (median) and $74,466 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows personal income ranks at the 62nd percentile ($870 weekly), household income at the 30th percentile. Income distribution reveals that 29.3% earn between $1,500 and $2,999 (1,106 individuals). Housing affordability is severe with only 83.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 28th percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Herne Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Herne Hill's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.4% houses and 28.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Herne Hill stood at 27.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.4% and rented ones at 39.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Herne Hill was $270, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Herne Hill's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,733 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Herne Hill features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 55.8% of all households, including 22.7% couples with children, 22.5% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 44.2%, with lone person households at 40.1% and group households comprising 3.6%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Herne Hill exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 29.3% for residents aged 15+, exceeding the Rest of Vic. average of 21.7%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 36.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.2% and certificates at 25.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.6% in primary education, 5.1% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Herne Hill has 17 active public transport stops. These are served by two routes offering a total of 363 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 201 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 91%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 21.6% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 51 trips per day, equating to approximately 21 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Herne Hill is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Herne Hill faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be high across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover was found to be fairly high at approximately 54% of the total population, which is around 2,040 people, compared to 50.5% in Regional Victoria. The most common medical conditions were mental health issues and asthma, impacting 11.2% and 9.5% of residents respectively. Around 65.0% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Victoria. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. As of a certain date, the area had 15.7% of residents aged 65 and over, which is around 592 people, lower than the 23.9% in Regional Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors were above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Herne Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Herne Hill, surveyed in 2016, had a cultural diversity index below average. Its population was predominantly Australian-born (86.7%), citizens (91.1%), and English speakers (92.2%). Christianity was the primary religion, accounting for 48.2% of residents.

While Judaism's representation was similar to Regional Vic (0.1%), notable overrepresentation occurred in Scottish ancestry at 9.8%, Dutch at 2.0%, and Macedonian at 0.5%. Top parental birth countries were England (27.7%), Australia (27.3%), and Ireland (12.0%).

Herne Hill's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Herne Hill's median age is 35 years, which is significantly below the Regional Vic. average of 43 and somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38. The 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented at 20.9% locally, compared to the Regional Vic. average, while those aged 65-74 are under-represented at 8.1%. This concentration of residents aged 25-34 is well above the national average of 14.4%. Following the census conducted on 2021-08-10, younger residents have shifted the median age down by one year to 35. Specifically, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has grown from 18.7% to 20.9%, while those aged 35 to 44 increased from 14.5% to 16.5%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45 to 54 has declined from 11.9% to 10.1%, and those aged 55 to 64 have dropped from 11.2% to 10.1%. Demographic modeling suggests Herne Hill's age profile will evolve significantly by the year 2041-07-01. The 25-34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 40%, adding 317 residents to reach a total of 1,107. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort is projected to decline by 11 people.