Herne Hill (Vic.)

Herne Hill has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of Herne Hill (Vic.) is estimated to be around 3,777 as of Feb 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 270 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,507 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 3,555 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 21 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,518 persons per square kilometer, placing Herne Hill in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 7.7% growth since census positions it within 0.4 percentage points of the Rest of Vic. (8.1%). Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas is forecast, with the suburb expected to increase by 1,081 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 25.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Herne Hill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Herne Hill recorded around 14 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 71 homes. In FY26 so far, 2 approvals have been recorded. An average of 3.1 new residents per year has arrived per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25. New homes are being built at an average value of $547,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

This financial year, there have been $1.3 million in commercial approvals, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Rest of Vic., Herne Hill shows substantially reduced construction, which is 62.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. New development consists of 83.0% detached houses and 17.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

The location has approximately 316 people per dwelling approval, indicating room for growth. Future projections show Herne Hill adding 960 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Herne Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Two projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area: Northern and Western Geelong Growth Areas, and Barwon Health North. Other notable projects include Geelong Ring Road - Stage 4C (Heales Road to Anglesea Road), and Marshall Street Social Housing Renewal.

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The labour market in Herne Hill demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Herne Hill has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate as of September 2025 is 3.3%. Over the past year, employment stability has been relatively high compared to other areas.

As of the mentioned date, 2,143 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.4% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Herne Hill stands at 75.7%, significantly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. According to Census responses, 21.6% of residents work from home.

Key industries for employment are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.7%, compared to the regional average of 7.5%. Labour force levels decreased by 0.0% over the 12 months to September 2025, with a corresponding employment decline of 0.3%, leading to an unemployment rate increase of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth rates over five and ten-year periods. Applying these projections to Herne Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, assuming no changes in population projections for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Herne Hill suburb's income level is above national average according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ended June 2023. Median income among taxpayers is $54,129 and average income stands at $68,791. These figures compare with Rest of Vic.'s median of $50,954 and average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $58,595 (median) and $74,466 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows personal income ranks at 62nd percentile ($870 weekly), while household income sits at 30th percentile. Distribution data indicates that the $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band captures 29.3% of community (1,106 individuals). This mirrors regional figure where 30.3% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 83.1% of income remaining, ranking at 28th percentile. Area's SEIFA income ranking places it in 5th decile.

Herne Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Herne Hill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.4% houses and 28.6% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Herne Hill stood at 27.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (33.4%) or rented (39.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Weekly rent in Herne Hill was recorded at $270, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Herne Hill's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Herne Hill features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 55.8% of all households, including 22.7% couples with children, 22.5% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 44.2%, with lone person households at 40.1% and group households comprising 3.6%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Herne Hill exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 29.3%, exceeding the Rest of Vic average of 21.7%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 36.9% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.2% and certificates at 25.7%. Current educational participation is high at 25.3%, including 8.6% in primary education, 5.1% in secondary education, and 5.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.6% in primary education, 5.1% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Herne Hill has 17 active public transport stops. These are served by two routes offering a total of 363 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is considered good with residents typically living 201 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 91% of residents. On average, there is one car per dwelling, lower than the regional norm.

In 2021 Census data, 21.6% of residents worked from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, an average of 51 trips are made daily, equating to around 21 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Herne Hill is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Herne Hill faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is found to be fairly high at approximately 54% of the total population (~2,040 people), compared to 50.5% across Rest of Vic.. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 11.2 and 9.5% of residents respectively. 65.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of Vic.. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 15.3% of residents aged 65 and over (577 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Herne Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Herne Hill, surveyed in 2016, had a predominantly Australian-born population with 86.7% of residents born there, and 91.1% being citizens. English was the primary language spoken at home by 92.2%. Christianity was the dominant religion (48.2%).

Judaism, however, was slightly overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to the regional average of 0.1%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (27.7%), Australian (27.3%), and Irish (12.0%). Notably, Scottish ancestry was higher in Herne Hill at 9.8% than regionally at 8.8%. Dutch ancestry was also slightly higher at 2.0%, compared to the regional average of 1.7%. Macedonian ancestry showed a more significant divergence, with 0.5% in Herne Hill versus 0.2% regionally.

Herne Hill's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Herne Hill's median age is 35 years, which is significantly lower than the Rest of Vic average of 43 and somewhat younger than Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 age group is notably over-represented in Herne Hill at 20.8%, compared to the Rest of Vic average, while those aged 65-74 are under-represented at 7.9%. This concentration of young residents is well above the national average of 14.4%. According to data from the 2021 Census, younger residents have shifted Herne Hill's median age down by one year to 35. Specifically, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 has grown from 18.7% to 20.8%, while those aged 35-44 increased from 14.5% to 16.4%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 declined from 11.9% to 10.2%, and those aged 55-64 dropped from 11.2% to 9.9%. Demographic modeling suggests that Herne Hill's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow the most at 44%, adding 348 residents and reaching a total of 1,134. In contrast, the 55-64 age group shows minimal growth of just 1% (an increase of 4 people).