Norlane

Population growth drivers in Norlane are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Norlane's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, is approximately 9,010 as of November 2025. This figure indicates a decrease of 41 individuals, representing a 0.5% drop from the 2021 Census count of 9,051 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,979 in June 2024 and an additional 185 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,394 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove recent population growth, contributing approximately 82.7% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting with a weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, significant population increases in the top quartile of non-metropolitan areas nationally are forecasted. The area is expected to increase by 2,053 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 22.0% over the 17-year period, according to the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Norlane, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Norlane has seen approximately 51 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 255 homes. As of FY-26, 26 approvals have been recorded. The population decline during this period suggests that new supply is meeting demand, providing good options for buyers with average home construction values at $262,000, below the regional average. This year has seen $900,000 in commercial approvals, indicating Norlane's residential focus.

Compared to other Victorian areas, Norlane records roughly half the building activity per person and ranks among the 36th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively limited buyer choice favouring existing homes. New building activity comprises 39.0% detached dwellings and 61.0% medium to high-density housing, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers due to affordable entry pathways. This shift reflects reduced development sites and changing lifestyle demands. With approximately 492 people per dwelling approval, Norlane is an established area with projected population growth of 1,982 residents by 2041. Construction pace currently matches projected growth, but increasing competition among buyers is expected as the population rises.

Population forecasts indicate Norlane will gain 1,982 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers could encounter growing competition as population increases.

Norlane has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Wathaurong Dreaming Project - North Geelong Hub Redevelopment, Gateway Green Estate, Geelong Growth Area Transport Infrastructure Strategy, and Norlane ARC. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Norlane face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Norlane's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. The unemployment rate was 20.3% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 1.1%.

As of June 2025, 3,194 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 16.5% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lagged at 45.3%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Dominant employment sectors included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Transport, postal & warehousing showed strong specialization with an employment share 2.3 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence at 2.0%, compared to the regional average of 7.5%. Local employment opportunities appeared limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between Jun-24 and Jun-25, employment increased by 1.1% while labour force rose by 2.3%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.9 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline by 0.9% and labour force decrease by 0.4%. State-level data from Nov-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Norlane's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows median income in Norlane SA2 was $44,607 and average income was $48,499. This is lower than national averages of $51,355 (median) and $63,086 (average). In Rest of Vic., median income was $48,741 with an average of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from July 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes in Norlane would be approximately $50,031 (median) and $54,396 (average). Census 2021 income data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Norlane are between the 1st and 3rd percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 32.0% of individuals earn between $400 and $799 weekly, unlike regional trends where 30.3% earn between $1,500 and $2,999. The concentration of 44.1% in sub-$800 brackets highlights economic challenges faced by a significant portion of the community. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 78.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Norlane is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Norlane's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.3% houses and 15.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Compared to Non-Metro Vic., which had 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings, Norlane's figures were similar. Home ownership in Norlane was at 24.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 19.6% and rented ones at 56.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,200, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,712. The median weekly rent figure in Norlane was recorded as $254, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $335. Nationally, Norlane's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Norlane features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 54.7% of all households, including 15.3% couples with children, 17.6% couples without children, and 19.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 45.3%, with lone person households at 39.7% and group households comprising 5.6%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Norlane faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.9%) and certificates (27.7%). Educational participation is high at 30.2%, with 9.8% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Norlane has 49 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are covered by 9 routes that facilitate 2,976 weekly passenger trips in total. The average distance residents live from the nearest stop is 220 meters, indicating good accessibility.

On average, there are 425 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to roughly 60 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Norlane is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Norlane faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 46% (~4,135 people) have private health cover, lower than the 52.7% Rest of Vic. average and the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent conditions, impacting 14.0 and 10.1% respectively. Around 56.5% claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 65.9% in Rest of Vic.. Norlane has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 18.1% (1,634 people), compared to the 16.8% Rest of Vic. average. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly similar to those of the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Norlane was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Norlane's population showed high cultural diversity, with 28.7% born overseas and 24.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 41.8%. The 'Other' religious category had higher representation in Norlane at 2.6%, compared to 1.2% regionally.

In terms of ancestry, Australian was highest at 26.0%, followed by English at 24.5%, and Other at 12.6%, significantly higher than the regional average of 7.3%. Notable overrepresentations included Croatian (2.6% vs 1.5%), Serbian (1.7% vs 0.5%), and Macedonian (1.7% vs 0.6%).

Norlane's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Norlane is 37 years, which is lower than the Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are prominent at 18.6%, while those aged 65-74 are smaller at 9.5% compared to Rest of Vic. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 17.1% to 18.6%, and the 0-4 cohort increased from 5.4% to 6.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group declined from 12.2% to 10.5%, and the 5-14 group dropped from 10.4% to 8.8%. By 2041, projections show significant shifts in Norlane's age structure. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to increase by 734 people (44%) from 1,674 to 2,409. Meanwhile, both the 15-24 and 55-64 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.