Newcomb - Moolap

Newcomb - Moolap has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Newcomb-Moolap's population is approximately 15,232 as of February 2026. This figure represents a decrease of 230 individuals (1.5%) from the 2021 Census total of 15,462 people. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 15,180 in June 2024 and the addition of 100 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 351 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential for further development. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, regional areas are projected to experience above median population growth. The area is expected to increase by 2,161 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 13.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Newcomb - Moolap, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Newcomb-Moolap has seen approximately 37 dwellings granted development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 188 homes were approved, with an additional 18 approved in FY26 so far. The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, providing good options for buyers.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $265,000. This year alone, $28.1 million worth of commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating steady commercial investment activity in the area. Comparatively, Newcomb-Moolap shows significantly reduced construction levels compared to the rest of Victoria (77.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. This level is also lower than the national average, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. The current new development mix consists of 50.0% detached dwellings and 50.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift towards compact living that offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This is a notable change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (87.0%).

This shift can be attributed to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated population per dwelling approval in Newcomb-Moolap is 658 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 2,109 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and driving price growth in the future.

Newcomb - Moolap has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 30 such projects that are likely to impact the area. Key projects include Whittington Family and Community Hub, Aldershot Reserve Improvements, Geelong Ring Road Extension (Bellarine Link), and Moolap Coastal Strategic Framework Plan. The following list details those projects considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Newcomb - Moolap face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Newcomb-Moolap has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. As of September 2025, 7,011 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 8.1%.

This is 4.4% higher than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is lower at 57.8%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. A low 13.2% work from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Retail trade is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.8%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.6% and employment declined by 0.9%, raising unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Newcomb-Moolap's industry mix suggests local employment could grow by 6.5% in five years and 13.5% in ten years, assuming stable population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Newcomb - Moolap SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $52,306 and an average income of $60,594 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures are lower than the national averages of $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average) for Rest of Vic. By September 2025, estimates based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth suggest median income will be approximately $56,621 and average income $65,593. Census data indicates Newcomb - Moolap's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 10th and 15th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 28.1% of the population (4,280 individuals) earn between $800 and $1,499, unlike surrounding regions where earnings primarily range from $1,500 to $2,999 at 30.3%. Housing affordability is severely strained, with only 82.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 11th percentile.

Newcomb - Moolap is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Newcomb-Moolap, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 86.6% houses and 13.4% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Newcomb-Moolap was 34.9%, with the remainder either mortgaged (30.4%) or rented (34.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,367, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Newcomb-Moolap's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Newcomb - Moolap features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.5% of all households, including 19.5% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 14.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 38.5%, with lone person households at 34.7% and group households comprising 3.7%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Newcomb - Moolap fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has university qualification rates of 15.5%, significantly lower than the Victorian average of 33.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.9% and graduate diplomas at 1.9%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (29.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 8.3% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Newcomb - Moolap indicates that there are 118 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops are serviced by 21 individual routes, providing a total of 2,076 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 193 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, with the car being the dominant mode of transport at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, only 13.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 296 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Newcomb - Moolap is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

AreaSearch assessed Newcomb - Moolap's health data, finding significant challenges. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were notable across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover was found to be relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~7,494 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues impacted 11.9% of residents, while arthritis affected 10.4%. A total of 56.5% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of Vic. The working-age population faced notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area had 24.5% of residents aged 65 and over (3,734 people). Health outcomes among seniors presented some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Newcomb - Moolap ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Newcomb-Moolap's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.7% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (84.6%), and speaking English only at home (91.4%). Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 47.1% of Newcomb-Moolap's population. The most notable overrepresentation was seen in Islam, with 1.3% compared to 1.0% across Rest of Vic..

In terms of ancestry, English (30.4%) and Australian (28.9%) were the top two represented groups, followed by Irish at 8.8%. Some ethnic groups showed notable divergences: Dutch (2.2% vs regional 1.7%), Croatian (0.6% vs 0.4%), and Italian (3.7% vs 2.9%).

Newcomb - Moolap hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Newcomb-Moolap's median age of 44 years is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Newcomb-Moolap has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (17.3%) but fewer individuals aged 5-14 (8.4%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the 25-34 age group has increased from 14.0% to 17.3%, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 12.1% to 10.2% and the 5-14 group has dropped from 9.6% to 8.4%. By 2041, Newcomb-Moolap's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 34%, reaching 3,530 people from the current 2,630. Conversely, the 75-84 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.