Newcomb - Moolap

Newcomb - Moolap has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Newcomb - Moolap's population is around 15,232 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a decrease of 230 people (1.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,462 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,180 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 100 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 351 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above-median population growth for regional areas nationally is projected, with the area expected to increase by 2,161 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 13.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Newcomb - Moolap, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Newcomb - Moolap has experienced around 37 dwellings receiving development approval annually, with 188 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 17 so far in FY-26. With population declining over recent years, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers, while new homes are being built at an average value of $265,000. Additionally, $28.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating steady commercial investment activity.

Relative to the Rest of Vic., Newcomb - Moolap shows substantially reduced construction (77.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. This level is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. New development consists of 50.0% detached dwellings and 50.0% attached dwellings. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 87.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated count of 658 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Future projections show Newcomb - Moolap adding 2,109 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Newcomb - Moolap has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 30 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Whittington Family and Community Hub, Aldershot Reserve Improvements, the Geelong Ring Road Extension (Bellarine Link), and the Moolap Coastal Strategic Framework Plan, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Newcomb - Moolap face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Newcomb - Moolap has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of 8.6%. As of December 2025, 6,961 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 4.9% above Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (57.7% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%). Based on Census responses, a low 13.2% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a particular employment specialization in retail trade, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. On the other hand, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.8% of Newcomb - Moolap's workforce compared to 7.5% in Regional Vic.. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.9% alongside a 0.9% employment decline, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with a 0.1 percentage point drop. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Newcomb - Moolap. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Newcomb - Moolap's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Newcomb - Moolap SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $52,306 and an average of $60,594 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is lower than average on a national basis, contrasting with Regional Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $56,621 (median) and $65,593 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Newcomb - Moolap all fall between the 10th and 15th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows 28.1% of the population (4,280 individuals) fall within the $800 - 1,499 income range, differing from patterns across the surrounding region where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 11th percentile.

Newcomb - Moolap is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Newcomb - Moolap, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 86.6% houses and 13.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Newcomb - Moolap was lagging that of Regional Vic., at 34.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (30.4%) or rented (34.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Regional Vic. average at $1,367, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Newcomb - Moolap's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Newcomb - Moolap features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 61.5% of all households, comprising 19.5% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 14.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 38.5%, with lone person households at 34.7% and group households comprising 3.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.2 people is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Newcomb - Moolap fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (15.5%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (29.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.3% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 118 active transport stops operating within Newcomb - Moolap. These stops are serviced by 21 individual routes, collectively providing 2,076 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 193 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 13.2% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 296 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Newcomb - Moolap is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Newcomb - Moolap, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~7,494 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 11.9% and 10.4% of residents, respectively, while 56.5% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 24.5% of residents aged 65 and over (3,734 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Newcomb - Moolap ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Newcomb - Moolap was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 87.7% of its population being citizens, 84.6% born in Australia, and 91.4% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Newcomb - Moolap is Christianity, which makes up 47.1% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Islam, which comprises 1.3% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Newcomb - Moolap are English, comprising 30.4% of the population, Australian, comprising 28.9% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.8% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 2.2% of Newcomb - Moolap (vs 1.7% regionally), Croatian at 0.6% (vs 0.4%) and Italian at 3.7% (vs 2.9%).

Newcomb - Moolap hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Newcomb - Moolap's median age of 44 years is similar to Regional Vic.'s 43 and well above the 38-year national average. Relative to Regional Vic., Newcomb - Moolap has a higher concentration of 25 - 34 residents (17.3%) but fewer 5 - 14 year-olds (8.4%). Since the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 14.0% to 17.3% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.1% to 10.2% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 9.6% to 8.4%. By 2041, Newcomb - Moolap is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 34% (899 people), reaching 3,530 from 2,630. On the other hand, the 75 to 84 and 15 to 24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.