Newcomb - Moolap
Statistical Area - sa2

Newcomb - Moolap has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Newcomb-Moolap's population is approximately 15,228 as of Aug 2025. This shows a decrease of 234 individuals, representing a 1.5% decline since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,462. The change was inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 15,202 in Jun 2024 and an additional 103 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 351 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth in the area during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, regional areas are projected to have above median population growth, with the area expected to increase by 2,161 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, reflecting a 13.9% total increase over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Newcomb - Moolap, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Newcomb-Moolap receives approximately 72 dwelling approvals annually. From FY20-FY25, around 364 dwellings were approved yearly by the ABS. As of FY26, 3 dwellings have been approved so far. The average construction value is $337,000, lower than regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing options.

Approximately $28.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating strong local business investment. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Newcomb-Moolap has 78.0% less construction per person, which supports higher demand and values for established dwellings. This level is also below national averages, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. Currently, 50.0% of new developments are detached dwellings, with the other 50.0% being attached, offering affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers. This represents a shift from the current housing mix of 87.0% houses, likely due to reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands. The population per dwelling approval is estimated at 658 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. By 2041, Newcomb-Moolap is projected to add 2,113 residents.

Current development levels appear aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Newcomb - Moolap has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 35thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 32 projects that could impact the area. Key projects include Geelong Renewable Energy Hub, Whittington Family and Community Hub, Aldershot Reserve Improvements, and Geelong Ring Road Extension (Bellarine Link). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Newcomb - Moolap face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Newcomb-Moolap has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services, with an unemployment rate of 8.3% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.6%. The area has 7,164 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 4.5%, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is lower, at 53.0% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Retail trade is particularly prominent, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing, however, is under-represented, at 0.8% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.6%, while the labour force grew by 2.3%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.6 percentage points. Statewide, VIC's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year to Sep-25, adding 39,880 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Newcomb-Moolap's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Newcomb - Moolap's median taxpayer income was $49,274 and average income was $58,180 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national averages of $50,500 (median) and $63,090 (average). By March 2025, estimated median and average incomes are approximately $54,256 and $64,062 respectively, based on a 10.11% increase since financial year 2022. Census data from 2021 shows Newcomb - Moolap's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 11th and 15th percentiles nationally. The most common income bracket in Newcomb - Moolap is $800 - $1,499, with 28.1% of locals earning within this range. This differs from surrounding regions where the dominant income bracket is $1,500 - $2,999 with 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Newcomb - Moolap, with only 82.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Newcomb - Moolap is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Newcomb-Moolap, evaluated in the latest Census, 86.6% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 13.4% being semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Newcomb-Moolap stood at 34.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.4% and rented ones at 34.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,367, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,712. Median weekly rent in the area was $300, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $335. Nationally, Newcomb-Moolap's median monthly mortgage repayment was lower at $1,863 and median weekly rent was substantially below the national figure of $375.

Newcomb - Moolap features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.5% of all households, including 19.5% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 14.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 38.5%, with lone person households at 34.7% and group households comprising 3.7%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Newcomb - Moolap fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 15.5%, significantly lower than the Victorian average of 33.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent, at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 10.2% and certificates at 29.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.3% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education. A robust network of six schools operates within Newcomb - Moolap, educating approximately 1,359 students as of the latest available data. These schools demonstrate typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 970) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes four primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents stand at 8.9, below the regional average of 16.8, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The transport analysis indicates that there are currently 118 active public transport stops operating within the Newcomb - Moolap area. These stops offer a mix of bus services, with a total of 7 individual routes providing weekly passenger trips amounting to 1,280. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents on average situated approximately 193 meters from their nearest stop.

Across all routes, the service frequency averages around 182 trips per day, which equates to roughly 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Newcomb - Moolap is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Newcomb-Moolap faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% (around 7,446 people), compared to 52.7% across the rest of Victoria and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (11.9%) and arthritis (10.4%).

However, 56.5% of residents report no medical ailments, lower than the 65.9% in the rest of Victoria. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 24.8% (3,782 people), compared to 16.8% in the rest of Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors present similar challenges as those faced by the general population.

Newcomb - Moolap ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Newcomb-Moolap showed lower cultural diversity, with 87.7% citizens, 84.6% born in Australia, and 91.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 47.1%. Islam's representation was higher than average, at 1.3% compared to 2.0% regionally.

Top ancestry groups were English (30.4%), Australian (28.9%), and Irish (8.8%). Dutch, Italian, and Croatian groups showed notable divergences: Dutch at 2.2% (vs 2.0%), Italian at 3.7% (vs 3.4%), and Croatian at 0.6% (vs 1.5%).

Newcomb - Moolap hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Newcomb-Moolap's median age of 44 years is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Newcomb-Moolap has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (16.6%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (8.6%). Between the 2016 Census and 2021, the 25-34 age group increased from 14.0% to 16.6%, while the 45-54 cohort decreased from 12.1% to 10.7%. By 2041, Newcomb-Moolap's population is expected to shift significantly in terms of age composition. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 40%, reaching 3,530 people from the current 2,520. Conversely, the 75-84 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.