Newcomb - Moolap
Statistical Area - sa2

Newcomb - Moolap has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Newcomb-Moolap's population is around 15,228 as of Aug 2025. This reflects a decrease since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 15,462 people. The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 15,202 in June 2024 and an additional 103 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 351 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected population growth shows an above median increase nationally, with the area expected to increase by 2,161 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, reflecting a total increase of 13.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Newcomb - Moolap, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Newcomb - Moolap has seen approximately 37 dwellings granted development approval annually. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, around 188 homes were approved, with an additional 5 approved so far in FY-26. The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely been meeting demand, providing buyers with good choices.

The average expected construction cost of new homes is $337,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. In the current financial year, commercial development approvals totaling $28.1 million have been recorded, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Newcomb - Moolap shows significantly reduced construction activity (77.0% below the regional average per person), which generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. This level is also lower than national averages, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. The current new development mix consists of 50.0% detached dwellings and 50.0% attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (87.0%). The estimated population per dwelling approval in Newcomb - Moolap is 658 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment.

Future projections indicate that the area will add approximately 2,113 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Newcomb - Moolap has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 35thth percentile nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 30 potential impact projects. Key ones include Whittington Family and Community Hub, Aldershot Reserve Improvements, Geelong Ring Road Extension (Bellarine Link), Moolap Coastal Strategic Framework Plan. Below is a list detailing those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Newcomb - Moolap face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Newcomb-Moolap has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services.

The unemployment rate was 8.3% in June 2025, higher than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.6%. As of June 2025, 7,164 residents are employed. Workforce participation is lower at 53.0% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%.

Leading industries for employment are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade has a higher share than the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparison. From June 2024 to June 2025, employment increased by 1.6%, labour force by 2.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.6 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.9% and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but local projections vary based on industry-specific growth rates. Applying these to Newcomb-Moolap's employment mix suggests potential growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Newcomb - Moolap had a median taxpayer income of $49,274 and an average of $58,180 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of Vic.'s median income being $48,741 and average income being $60,693. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $55,266 and the average income $65,255, based on a 12.16% increase since financial year 2022. Census 2021 data shows incomes in Newcomb - Moolap fall between the 11th and 15th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis reveals that 28.1% of locals (4,279 people) earn between $800 and $1,499 annually, differing from surrounding regions where incomes predominantly fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 range at 30.3%. Housing affordability is severe in Newcomb - Moolap, with only 82.8% of income remaining after expenses, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Newcomb - Moolap is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Newcomb-Moolap, as per the latest Census evaluation, 86.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 13.4% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Newcomb-Moolap stood at 34.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.4% and rented ones at 34.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,367, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,863, and the median weekly rent was $300, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $375. Nationally, Newcomb-Moolap's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Newcomb - Moolap features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.5% of all households, including 19.5% that are couples with children, 26.5% that are couples without children, and 14.2% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 38.5%, with lone person households at 34.7% and group households comprising 3.7%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Newcomb - Moolap fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.5%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.2% and certificates at 29.7%. Educational participation is high at 25.6%, including 8.3% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

The area has a robust network of six schools educating approximately 1,359 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 970) and balanced educational opportunities. This includes four primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents are lower at 8.9 compared to the regional average of 16.7, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The active public transport stops within Newcomb - Moolap total 118. These are served by buses along seven different routes. The weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes amount to 1,280.

Residents' proximity to the nearest transport stop averages 193 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. Daily service frequency across all routes is 182 trips, translating to approximately ten weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Newcomb - Moolap is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Newcomb - Moolap. A range of health conditions impact both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~7,446 people), compared to 52.7% across Rest of Vic., which stands at 55.3% nationally.

Mental health issues are the most common medical condition in the area, impacting 11.9% of residents, followed by arthritis at 10.4%. Conversely, 56.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.9% across Rest of Vic.. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 24.8%, or approximately 3,782 people, compared to the 16.8% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Newcomb - Moolap ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Newcomb-Moolap's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.7% of its population being Australian citizens and 84.6% born in Australia. A majority, 91.4%, spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 47.1% of Newcomb-Moolap's population.

Islam was overrepresented compared to the rest of Victoria, making up 1.3% versus 2.0%. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.4%), Australian (28.9%), and Irish (8.8%). Notably, Dutch (2.2%) and Italian (3.7%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 2.0% and 3.4%, respectively. Croatian ethnicity was underrepresented at 0.6%.

Newcomb - Moolap hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Newcomb-Moolap's median age of 44 years is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Newcomb-Moolap has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (16.6%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (8.6%). Between 2021 Census and now, the 25-34 age group has increased from 14.0% to 16.6%, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 12.1% to 10.7%. By 2041, Newcomb-Moolap's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 40%, reaching 3,530 people from the current 2,520. Meanwhile, the 75-84 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to decrease in population.