Marshall

Marshall lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the Marshall statistical area (Lv2) had an estimated population of around 2,370 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 71 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,299 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,200 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 39 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,161 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Marshall (SA2) has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 15.0%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 83.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, is predicted over the period with the Marshall (SA2) expected to grow by 3,488 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 172.1% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Marshall when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers derived from statistical area data, Marshall has averaged approximately 13 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 66 homes. In FY26 so far, 4 approvals have been recorded. Historically, this area has seen an average of 19.3 new residents per year arriving per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25, indicating that demand significantly exceeds supply, which typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition. New properties are constructed at an average value of $352,000.

Additionally, $826,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus compared to other areas. Marshall has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person compared to Rest of Vic., and it ranks among the 43rd percentile nationally for areas assessed, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (70.0% at Census), reflecting persistent strong demand for family homes amid densification trends. Marshall indicates a mature market with around 380 people per approval. Looking ahead, Marshall is expected to grow by 4,079 residents through to 2041 according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Marshall has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Five projects identified by AreaSearch may impact the area: Yirrama Primary School, Horseshoe Bend Community Hub, Charlemont Rise Shopping Centre, and 56 Church Street Townhouses.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Marshall shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Marshall has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.8% in September 2025, aligning with Rest of Vic.'s rate.

However, workforce participation lagged significantly at 50.6%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction, with a notable concentration in health care & social assistance at 1.3 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence, with only 0.4% employment compared to the regional average of 7.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.2%, while labour force increased by 1.0%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment contract by 0.7% and the labour force fall by 0.6%. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13%, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate a projected expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Marshall's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Marshall's median income among taxpayers was $39,083 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $45,189 during the same period. Comparing these figures with Rest of Vic., Marshall's median income was lower by $11,871 and average income was lower by $17,545. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 suggest a median income of approximately $42,307 and an average income of $48,917 in Marshall. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Marshall all fall between the 10th and 15th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 29.6% of Marshall's population (701 individuals) have an income within the $400 - 799 range, differing from surrounding regions where the $1,500 - 2,999 range dominates with 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Marshall, with only 78.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.

Marshall is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Marshall, as per the latest Census, consisted of 70.2% houses and 29.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Marshall stood at 34.9%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (36.0%) or rented (29.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Marshall was $1,600, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,712. The median weekly rent figure in Marshall was recorded at $390, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $335. Nationally, Marshall's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Marshall features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 56.8% of all households, including 19.9% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 7.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 43.2%, with lone person households at 37.5% and group households comprising 5.9%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Marshall demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Marshall Trail's residents aged 15+ have lower university degree holders (24.1%) compared to Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common (16.4%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.1% of residents holding them - advanced diplomas at 14.1% and certificates at 23.0%. A significant portion, 24.4%, is actively pursuing education: 8.4% in primary, 5.5% in tertiary, and 3.9% in secondary education.

A substantial 24.4% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.4% in primary education, 5.5% in tertiary education, and 3.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Marshall has 18 operational public transport stops, offering a combination of train and bus services. These stops are served by 18 distinct routes, facilitating 2,093 weekly passenger trips in total. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents on average situated just 184 meters away from the nearest stop.

On an average day, there are 299 transport trips across all routes, translating to about 116 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Marshall is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Marshall faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. As of 2021, approximately 45% (~1,062 people) have private health cover, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 53.3%. Nationally, the average is 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.2%) and mental health issues (11.1%). Conversely, 56.7% report no medical ailments, lower than Rest of Vic.'s 65.9%. Marshall has a higher percentage of seniors aged 65 and over at 30.0% (711 people), compared to Rest of Vic.'s 16.8%. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly similar to the general population's health profile, presenting some challenges.

In terms of cultural diversity, Marshall records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Marshall's population, born in Australia, was 81.7%, with 88.6% being citizens and 89.4% speaking English only at home, similar to the wider region's averages. Christianity was the predominant religion in Marshall, accounting for 50.6% of its population. However, Marshall had an overrepresentation of people identifying as Other, at 1.3%, compared to the regional average of 1.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.7%), Australian (26.2%), and Irish (10.8%). Notably, Dutch ancestry was equally represented in Marshall and regionally at 2.0%, while Russian ancestry was slightly higher at 0.4% compared to the regional average of 0.2%. Scottish ancestry was also slightly overrepresented in Marshall at 8.7%, compared to the regional average of 8.3%.

Marshall hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Marshall's median age is 42 years, comparable to Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but considerably higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile indicates that the 25-34 year-olds are particularly prominent at 17.4%, while the 55-64 group is comparatively smaller at 7.3% compared to Rest of Vic.. Since 2021, Marshall has seen a decrease in median age by 1.3 years to 42 from 43. This change can be attributed to key shifts such as an increase in the 35-44 age group from 11.1% to 15.6%, and a rise in the 25-34 cohort from 15.1% to 17.4%. Conversely, the 85+ cohort has decreased from 9.4% to 6.4%, and the 75-84 group has dropped from 14.2% to 12.4%. Population forecasts for Marshall indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041, with the 35-44 cohort projected to grow strongly at 219%, adding 809 residents to reach a total of 1,179.