Marshall

Marshall lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, the estimated population of the suburb of Marshall is around 2,189. This reflects a decrease of 110 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,299. The current resident population estimate by AreaSearch is 2,066, following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, with an additional 39 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,073 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Marshall has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 15.0%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 83.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period with Marshall expected to grow by 3,502 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 195.2% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Marshall when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Marshall averaging approximately 12 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 61 homes. In FY-26 so far, there have been 3 approvals recorded. This results in a demand significantly exceeding new supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. New properties are constructed at an average value of $352,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers.

There has also been $171,000 in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of Vic., Marshall has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 43rd percentile nationally, leading to relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. New development consists of 92.0% detached houses and 8.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited for buyers seeking space.

Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (70.0% at Census), reflecting continued strong demand for family homes. The location has approximately 380 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. Looking ahead, Marshall is expected to grow by 4,274 residents through to 2041 according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Marshall has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects potentially impacting this region. Notable ones are Yirrama Primary School, Horseshoe Bend Community Hub, Charlemont Rise Shopping Centre, and 56 Church Street Townhouses. The following details those likely most relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Marshall recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Marshall has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 4.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.0%.

As of June 2025, 1,310 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.3% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lagged at 50.6%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment was concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction, with a particular specialization in health care & social assistance at 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 0.4% versus the regional average of 7.5%.

The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 1.0%, while labour force increased by 2.3%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 1.3 percentage points. This contrasted with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.9%, the labour force fell by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 projected a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Marshall's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 indicates Marshall's median income among taxpayers is $39,083, with an average of $45,189. This is below the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median income is $48,741 and average is $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $43,835 (median) and $50,684 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals Marshall's household, family and personal incomes fall between the 10th and 15th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows the $400 - 799 earnings band captures 29.6% of Marshall's community (647 individuals), contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Marshall, with only 78.6% of income remaining, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.

Marshall is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As evaluated in the latest Census, dwelling structures in Marshall consisted of 70.2% houses and 29.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Marshall was at 34.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.0% and rented dwellings at 29.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Marshall was $1,600, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,712. The median weekly rent figure in Marshall was $390, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $335. Nationally, Marshall's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Marshall features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 56.8% of all households, including 19.9% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 7.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for 43.2%, with lone person households at 37.5% and group households comprising 5.9%. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Marshall demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Marshall Trail's residents aged 15+ have a university degree rate of 24.1%, compared to Victoria's 33.4%. This gap indicates room for educational advancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common (16.4%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.1% of residents holding them; advanced diplomas account for 14.1%, certificates for 23.0%.

A significant 24.4% of the population is currently pursuing formal education: 8.4% in primary, 5.5% in tertiary, and 3.9% in secondary education. Educational facilities seem to be located outside Marshall Trail's immediate boundaries, necessitating families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 18 operational transport stops in Marshall, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 11 distinct routes, facilitating 1,939 weekly passenger trips combined. Residential accessibility to public transport is rated excellent, with residents positioned an average of 181 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 277 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 107 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Marshall is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Marshall faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. As of approximately 2021, around 45% (~981 people) have private health cover, compared to 52.7% across the rest of Victoria and a national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.2%) and mental health issues (11.1%), while 56.7% report having no medical ailments, compared to 65.9% in the rest of Victoria.

Marshall has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 29.9% (654 people), compared to 16.8% in the rest of Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Marshall records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Marshall's population was found to align with the broader regional average in terms of cultural diversity, with 81.7% born in Australia, 88.6% being citizens, and 89.4% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Marshall is Christianity, practiced by 50.6% of its population. However, the most notable overrepresentation was seen in the 'Other' category, comprising 1.3% of Marshall's population compared to 1.2% across the rest of Victoria.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (31.7%), Australian (26.2%), and Irish (10.8%). Some other ethnic groups showed notable differences in representation: Dutch was at 2.0% in Marshall compared to 2.0% regionally, Russian at 0.4% versus 0.2%, and Scottish at 8.7% compared to 8.3%.

Marshall hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Marshall's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are prominent at 17.4%, while the 55-64 group is smaller at 7.2% compared to Rest of Vic. Between 2021 and present, Marshall has become younger with a median age drop from 43 to 42 years. Key changes include growth in the 35-44 age group from 11.1% to 15.5%, and increase in the 25-34 cohort from 15.1% to 17.4%. Conversely, the 85+ cohort declined from 9.4% to 6.4%, and the 75-84 group dropped from 14.2% to 12.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Marshall, with the strongest projected growth in the 35-44 cohort at 249%, adding 843 residents to reach 1,183.