Marshall

Marshall lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Marshall is around 2,185. This figure reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census count of 2,299 people, a drop of 114 individuals (5.0%). The current resident population estimate, 2,175, was derived by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and validation of an additional 41 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 1,071 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Marshall has exhibited resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 2.0%, outperforming its SA3 area. The primary driver for this population growth was interstate migration, contributing about 83.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, though natural growth and overseas migration were also positive factors.

AreaSearch is employing ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends predict exceptional growth for Marshall, placing it in the top 10 percent of Australia's non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the suburb is expected to grow by approximately 972 persons, reflecting a total gain of 44.0% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Marshall according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Marshall averaged approximately 13 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 66 homes. As of FY26, 8 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 2.1 people moved to the area per new home constructed, reflecting strong demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $352,000.

This year, Marshall has registered $826,000 in commercial approvals, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Rest of Vic., Marshall has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 54th percentile nationally. Recent development has been exclusively detached houses, preserving Marshall's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

New construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (70.0% at Census), indicating ongoing strong demand for family homes. With approximately 295 people per approval, Marshall reflects a low-density area. Population forecasts indicate Marshall will gain 962 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Marshall has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Five projects are expected to influence the local area's performance significantly: Yirrama Primary School, Horseshoe Bend Community Hub, Charlemont Rise Shopping Centre, and 56 Church Street Townhouses.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Marshall faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Marshall's workforce is skilled with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate, as of December 2025, is 4.7%. This rate is 1.0% higher than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation in Marshall lags at 49.2%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. According to Census responses, 16.6% of residents work from home, with Covid-19 lockdown impacts considered. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Health care & social assistance stands out with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.4%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by Census working population vs resident population comparison. Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 13.7% in Marshall, with employment decreasing by 14.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic.'s employment contracted by 0.6%, labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Marshall's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Marshall's median income among taxpayers was $39,083 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $45,189 during the same period. This compares to figures for Regional Vic., which were $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $42,843 (median) and $49,536 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Marshall all fall between the 10th and 15th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, 29.6% of locals (646 people) had incomes in the $400 - 799 category, diverging from the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominated at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 78.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.

Marshall is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Marshall's housing structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 70.2% houses and 29.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Marshall stood at 34.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.0% and rented ones at 29.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,600, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Marshall was $390, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Marshall's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,600 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $390 compared to the national figure of $375.

Marshall features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 56.8% of all households, including 19.9% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 7.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 43.2%, with lone person households at 37.5% and group households comprising 5.9%. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Marshall demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Marshall Trail's educational qualifications trail Victorian benchmarks, with 24.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the state average of 33.4%. This gap indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 16.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 37.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 14.1% and certificates for 23.0%.

Currently, 24.4% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.4% in primary education, 5.5% in tertiary education, and 3.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Marshall has 18 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train services. These are served by 18 different routes, collectively facilitating 2,093 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically living 184 meters from the nearest stop. As a mainly residential zone, most commuters travel outward; cars remain the primary mode of transport at 93%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, below the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 16.6% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 299 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 116 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Marshall is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Marshall faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantially higher than average in Marshall, particularly among older age cohorts. Only approximately 45% of Marshall's total population (~979 people) has private health cover, compared to 50.5% in Regional Vic.

and the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.2%) and mental health issues (11.1%). Conversely, 56.7% of residents report having no medical ailments, lower than the 63.4% reported in Regional Vic. Working-age residents in Marshall have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 23.7% of residents aged 65 and over (517 people), with senior health outcomes presenting some challenges but ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Marshall records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Marshall's population is roughly in line with the wider region's average cultural diversity, with 81.7% born in Australia, 88.6% being citizens, and 89.4% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Marshall is Christianity, comprising 50.6% of its population. However, there is an overrepresentation in the 'Other' category, which makes up 1.3% compared to Regional Vic's 0.8%.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups are English (31.7%), Australian (26.2%), and Irish (10.8%). There are notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Dutch is overrepresented at 2.0% versus the regional average of 1.7%, Russian at 0.4% compared to 0.1%, and Scottish at 8.7% compared to 8.8%.

Marshall hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Marshall is 40 years, which is slightly below Regional Vic.'s average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 age cohort makes up 21.2% of Marshall's population, compared to the regional average of 17.6%, and the national average of 14.6%. Meanwhile, the 55-64 age group constitutes only 3.1% of Marshall's population. Between the 2021 Census and now, Marshall has become younger, with its median age dropping from 43 to 40 years. The 25-34 age group has grown from 15.1% to 21.2%, while the 5-14 cohort increased from 8.8% to 11.6%. Conversely, the 85+ cohort has declined from 9.4% to 3.7%, and the 75-84 group dropped from 14.2% to 9.8%. By 2041, Marshall's population is forecasted to change significantly. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to expand by 362 people (78%), from 463 to 826 individuals. Conversely, the 55-64 group is expected to decrease by 12 residents.