Marshall

Marshall lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

The population of the suburb of Marshall is estimated at around 2,379 as of Feb 2026, based on analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated by AreaSearch. This reflects an increase of 80 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,299 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,200 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 39 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,166 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Marshall has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 3.3%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 83.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period, placing Marshall in the top 10 percent of Australia's non-metropolitan areas. The area is expected to grow by 1,257 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 45.3% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Marshall when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Marshall has averaged approximately 13 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 66 homes. In FY-26 so far, 5 approvals have been recorded. This results in around 19.4 new residents arriving per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand significantly exceeds new supply. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $352,000.

Additionally, $826,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Rest of Vic., Marshall has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 43rd percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (70.0% at Census), reflecting persistent strong demand for family homes amid densification trends. Marshall indicates a mature market with around 380 people per approval. Looking ahead, Marshall is expected to grow by approximately 1,078 residents through to 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Marshall has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Yirrama Primary School, Horseshoe Bend Community Hub, Charlemont Rise Shopping Centre, and 56 Church Street Townhouses. The following details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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While Marshall retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.9%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Marshall has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.9%. Employment stability over the past year is relative.

As of December 2025, 1423 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.2% above Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is high at 83.0%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. According to Census responses, 16.6% of residents work from home. Employment concentrations are in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Health care & social assistance has particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence with 0.4% employment compared to Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census working population vs resident population comparison. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.1%, employment declined by 0.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic.'s employment contracted by 0.6%, labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 provide further insight into potential future demand within Marshall. These projections suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Marshall's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Marshall's median income among taxpayers was $39,083 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $45,189 during the same period. This compares to figures for Regional Vic., which were $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $42,307 (median) and $48,917 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Marshall all fall between the 10th and 15th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, 29.6% of Marshall's population (704 individuals) fall within the $400 - 799 income range, differing from patterns across the surrounding region where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Marshall, with only 78.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.

Marshall is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Marshall's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 70.2% houses and 29.8% other types (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Marshall stood at 34.9%, with the rest being mortgaged (36.0%) or rented (29.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,600, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Marshall was $390, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Marshall's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,600 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $390 compared to the national figure of $375.

Marshall features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 56.8% of all households, including 19.9% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 7.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 43.2%, with lone person households at 37.5% and group households comprising 5.9%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Marshall demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Marshall Trail has a lower percentage of residents aged 15 and above with university degrees compared to Victoria, with 24.1% versus 33.4%. Among Marshall Trail's residents with higher education qualifications, bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 5.0% and graduate diplomas at 2.7%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 37.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications. Advanced diplomas account for 14.1% and certificates make up 23.0% of these vocational credentials.

A significant portion of Marshall Trail's population is engaged in formal education, with 24.4% actively pursuing it. This includes 8.4% in primary education, 5.5% in tertiary education, and 3.9% in secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Marshall has 18 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops offer a mix of train services. There are 18 individual routes serving these stops, collectively providing 2,093 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 184 meters from the nearest transport stop. As of the 2021 Census, 16.6% of Marshall's residents work from home. The area is primarily residential and most residents commute outward, with car remaining the dominant mode of transportation at 93%.

Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. Service frequency averages 299 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 116 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Marshall is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Marshall faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment, with mortality rates and prevalence of chronic conditions notably higher than average. Older age cohorts experience these issues to an even greater extent. Private health cover is extremely low in Marshall, at approximately 45% of the total population (around 1,066 people), compared to 50.5% across Regional Victoria and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.2% and 11.1% of residents respectively, while 56.7% report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Victoria. Working-age residents in Marshall have a higher-than-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 24.2% of residents aged 65 and over (575 people), with senior health outcomes presenting some challenges but ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Marshall records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Marshall's population was found to be approximately in line with the broader regional average regarding cultural diversity, with 81.7% born in Australia, 88.6% being citizens, and 89.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Marshall, comprising 50.6% of its population. Notably, the category 'Other' was overrepresented in Marshall, making up 1.3% compared to 0.8% regionally.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were English (31.7%), Australian (26.2%), and Irish (10.8%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Dutch were slightly overrepresented at 2.0% in Marshall versus 1.7% regionally, Russian was more pronounced at 0.4% compared to 0.1%, and Scottish representation was nearly equal at 8.7%.

Marshall hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Marshall is 40 years, which is slightly below Regional Victoria's average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 22.7% of Marshall's population, higher than the Regional Vic. average and significantly higher than the national average of 14.4%. Meanwhile, the 55-64 age group comprises only 2.7%, lower than the regional average. Between the 2021 Census and the previous census, Marshall's median age decreased by 2.9 years to 40 from 43. The 25-34 age group grew from 15.1% to 22.7%, while the 5-14 age group increased from 8.8% to 11.6%. Conversely, the 85+ cohort declined from 9.4% to 4.3%, and the 75-84 group dropped from 14.2% to 9.3%. Population forecasts for Marshall in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 25-34 age group is projected to increase by 60% from 540 to 865 people, while the 55-64 cohort will grow minimally by just 4%, adding only 2 people.