Waurn Ponds

Population growth drivers in Waurn Ponds are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Waurn Ponds is around 4,749. This reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census figure of 4,956 people, a drop of 207 individuals (4.2%). The current estimate comes from AreaSearch's analysis of the latest resident population data, which was 4,743 as per their examination of June 2025 ABS ERP data release and subsequent address validation since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 272 persons per square kilometer. Population growth in Waurn Ponds has been primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them using weighted aggregation methods to reach SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, Waurn Ponds is predicted to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of Australia's regional areas. By 2041, the suburb is expected to increase its population by 2,183 persons, reflecting a total gain of 45.8% over the 16-year period based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

The level of residential development activity in Waurn Ponds is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Waurn Ponds had less than one new dwelling approved annually between 2016 and 2020, reflecting its rural nature where development is driven by local housing needs rather than market demand. The small sample size means individual projects can significantly influence annual growth statistics. Compared to Rest of Vic., Waurn Ponds had significantly lower construction activity during this period.

Its development levels were also below national averages.

Waurn Ponds has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that could impact this region. Notable projects include Waurn Ponds Sporting Complex, Levande Highton Retirement Village, Armstrong Mount Duneed Estate, and Grovedale Village. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Waurn Ponds has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Waurn Ponds has an educated workforce with key services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate was 5.9% as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. By December 2025, 2,522 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 2.2% above Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation was high at 67.6%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. Census responses showed that 19.3% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment was concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food sectors. Notably, employment levels in accommodation & food were at 1.7 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employed just 1.2% of local workers, lower than Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.9, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force decreased by 5.0%, while employment declined by 5.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Regional Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Waurn Ponds' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Waurn Ponds had a median taxpayer income of $43,276 and an average of $54,084. These figures are lower than national averages of $50,954 and $62,728 in Regional Vic. respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $47,439 (median) and $59,287 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household incomes rank at the 82nd percentile ($2,286 weekly), while personal income ranks at the 18th percentile. The earnings profile indicates that 34.2% of residents (1,624 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, mirroring the metropolitan region's 30.3%. Significantly, 33.9% earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting local prosperity. After housing costs, residents retain 88.2% of income, indicating strong purchasing power, with the area's SEIFA income ranking placing it in the 7th decile.

Waurn Ponds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Waurn Ponds' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.6% houses and 2.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Waurn Ponds was at 34.9%, with the rest being mortgaged (44.0%) or rented (21.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,755, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Waurn Ponds was $430, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Waurn Ponds' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher at $375.

Waurn Ponds features high concentrations of family households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 81.2% of all households, including 46.1% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 18.8%, with lone person households at 14.5% and group households making up 4.6%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Regional Vic average of 2.4.

Educational achievement in Waurn Ponds places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 28.9%, exceeding the Rest of Vic average of 21.7%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 31.0% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 10.7% and certificates at 20.3%. Educational participation is high, with 45.2% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 23.0% in tertiary education, 9.0% in primary education, and 8.1% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Waurn Ponds has 16 active public transport stops. These stops are served by 19 routes, offering a total of 3084 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically living 250 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car remains the primary mode of transport at 91%. On average, there are 2.0 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 19.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 440 trips per day, equating to approximately 192 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Waurn Ponds is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Waurn Ponds shows superior health outcomes according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and elderly cohorts exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is found to be very low at approximately 48% of the total population (around 2,293 people), compared to Regional Vic.'s 50.5%.

Nationally, it stands at 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.9 and 8.6% respectively. About 73.4% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to Regional Vic.'s 63.4%. Under-65 population shows better than average health outcomes. The area has 7.8% of residents aged 65 and over (370 people), lower than Regional Vic.'s 23.9%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Waurn Ponds records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Waurn Ponds' cultural diversity aligns with its broader region, with 86.6% citizens, 81.3% born in Australia, and 86.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 45.8%. Hinduism, however, is notably higher at 3.4%, compared to Regional Vic's 0.7%.

Top ancestry groups are English (28.0%), Australian (27.9%), and Scottish (8.5%). Dutch (2.5%) and Hungarian (0.5%) are overrepresented, as are Sri Lankans (0.4%).

Waurn Ponds hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Waurn Ponds has a median age of 26 years, which is considerably younger than the Regional Vic. average of 43 and lower than the national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional Vic., Waurn Ponds has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (28.7%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (4.8%). This proportion of 15-24 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.7%. According to post-2021 Census data, the population aged 25 to 34 has increased from 12.1% to 15.7%, while those aged 35 to 44 have risen from 10.5% to 12.4%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 55 to 64 has decreased from 8.5% to 7.0%, and those aged 45 to 54 have dropped from 13.4% to 12.1%. Demographic projections indicate that Waurn Ponds' age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the strongest growth expected in the 25 to 34 age group, which is projected to increase by 75%, adding 560 residents and reaching a total of 1,306.