Mount Duneed

Mount Duneed lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Mount Duneed's population is estimated at around 9,462 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 3,280 people (53.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,182 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 9,367, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 1,429 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 181 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Mount Duneed's 53.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of Vic. (8.1%), along with the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, is predicted over the period with the area expected to expand by 6,470 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 67.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Mount Duneed among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Mount Duneed has recorded approximately 442 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 2,211 homes. As of FY-26232 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.6 people per year moved to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25. New construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially enabling population growth.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $412,000, indicating a focus on premium properties. In FY-26, $61.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting high levels of local commercial activity.

Recent construction comprises 93.0% detached dwellings and 7.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character. There are approximately 20 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. Population forecasts indicate Mount Duneed will gain 6,375 residents by 2041, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Mount Duneed has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 42 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Ashbury Estate, Armstrong Creek Town Centre, Barwon Heads Road Upgrade, and Armstrong Creek Mixed Use Precinct (465 Surf Coast Highway). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market strength in Mount Duneed positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Mount Duneed's workforce is highly educated with strong representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.1% as of December 2025, according to AreaSearch data aggregation from statistical areas. This rate was 1.6 percentage points lower than Regional Victoria's rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation was somewhat below the regional average at 56.6%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. A moderate 23.5% of residents worked from home, based on Census responses, with potential Covid-19 lockdown impacts considered. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Notably, education & training had employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 1.2%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. The worker-to-resident ratio was 1.0 as of the Census, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.2% and employment fell by 1.3%, with unemployment remaining largely unchanged, according to AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data aggregated from broader statistical areas. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment fell by 0.6%, labour force contracted by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Mount Duneed. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Mount Duneed's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though these are simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Mount Duneed suburb has an exceptionally high national income level according to AreaSearch aggregated ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers is $69,958, with the average income at $87,372. This compares to Regional Vic.'s figures of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on an 8.25% increase since financial year 2023, current estimates for September 2025 are approximately $75,730 (median) and $94,580 (average). The 2021 Census data ranks Mount Duneed's household, family, and personal incomes highly, between the 81st and 82nd percentiles nationally. The largest income segment comprises 41.3% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (3,907 residents), similar to regional levels at 30.3%. High housing costs consume 15.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 81st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Mount Duneed is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Mount Duneed's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.3% houses and 2.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mount Duneed stood at 21.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 55.5% and rented ones at 23.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,983, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Mount Duneed was $446, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Mount Duneed's mortgage repayments were above the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Mount Duneed features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.9% of all households, including 41.4% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 21.1%, with lone person households at 16.1% and group households comprising 5.0%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Mount Duneed shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Mount Duneed's residents aged 15+ have a higher university qualification rate of 35.5%, compared to the broader Victorian figure of 21.7% and the SA4 region average of 28.6%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 24.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 35.7% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (23.2%). Educational participation is high, with 32.7% currently enrolled in formal education, including 12.0% in primary, 6.6% in tertiary, and 6.2% pursuing secondary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 6.6% in tertiary education, and 6.2% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mount Duneed has 24 active public transport stops offering a mix of train services. These are served by 18 routes providing a total of 1,738 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is rated good with residents typically living 376 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant transport mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 23.5% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 248 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 72 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Mount Duneed is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Mount Duneed shows better-than-average health outcomes according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older residents have low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 61% of the total population (5,796 people), compared to 50.5% in Regional Vic.

and 55.7% nationally. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 9.0% and 8.9% of residents respectively. 73.6% of residents report no medical ailments, higher than the 63.4% across Regional Vic. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 9.8% of residents aged 65 and over (927 people), lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Mount Duneed records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mount Duneed's population showed above-average cultural diversity, with 20.2% born overseas and 15.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 41.1%. The 'Other' religious category comprised 2.7%, higher than Regional Vic's 0.8%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (27.3%), Australian (26.2%), and Irish (8.6%). Notably, Dutch (1.9%) Croatian (0.7%), and Polish (0.8%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.7%, 0.4%, and 0.5% respectively.

Mount Duneed hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Mount Duneed is 32 years, which is notably lower than Regional Victoria's average of 43 and also substantially under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Regional Vic., Mount Duneed has a higher concentration of residents aged 25-34 (20.6%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (7.0%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is well above the national average of 14.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the age group of 15 to 24 has grown from 11.6% to 12.4% of the population in Mount Duneed, while the age group of 5 to 14 has declined from 14.8% to 13.9%. By the year 2041, Mount Duneed is expected to see significant shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the age group of 25 to 34 is projected to grow by 83%, adding 1,624 people and reaching a total of 3,574 from the current figure of 1,949.