Mount Duneed

Mount Duneed lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for Mount Duneed's broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Mount Duneed's population is estimated at around 9,799 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 3,617 people (58.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,182 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 9,703 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 1,427 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 188 persons per square kilometer. Mount Duneed's growth exceeded non-metro areas (6.0%) and national averages since the 2021 census, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional future growth is predicted, placing Mount Duneed in the top 10 percent of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with an expected expansion of 4,567 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 18.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Mount Duneed among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Mount Duneed recorded around 458 residential properties granted approval each year from FY-21 to FY-25, totalling an estimated 2,293 homes over those five financial years. As of FY-26184 approvals have been recorded. The average population increase per dwelling built in the area was 0.6 people per year during this period. New construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and potentially enabling population growth to exceed current expectations.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes was $414,000, aligning with broader regional development trends. In FY-26, $60.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating high levels of local commercial activity.

Recent construction comprises 93.0% detached dwellings and 7.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 19 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. Population forecasts indicate Mount Duneed will gain 1,788 residents by 2041, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Mount Duneed has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 42 projects likely influencing the region. Notable initiatives include Ashbury Estate, Armstrong Creek Town Centre, Barwon Heads Road Upgrade, and Armstrong Creek Mixed Use Precinct at 465 Surf Coast Highway. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Mount Duneed significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Mount Duneed has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.1% as of June 2025.

Over the past year, employment growth was estimated at 2.0%. This is based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, 4,077 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.7% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Mount Duneed is high at 75.6%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%.

The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Notably, education & training has an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented with only 1.2% of Mount Duneed's workforce compared to 7.5% in Rest of Vic.. The worker-to-resident ratio of 1.0 indicates substantial local employment opportunities. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.0%, while labour force increased by 2.3%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.9% and labour force decline of 0.4%, with a rise in unemployment rate of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mount Duneed's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's data for Mount Duneed in financial year 2022 shows median income at $69,874 and average income at $87,303. This is significantly higher than the Rest of Vic.'s figures: median income of $48,741 and average income of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2022 to September 2025 (an increase of 12.16%), estimated incomes would be approximately $78,371 (median) and $97,919 (average). Mount Duneed ranks highly nationally for household, family, and personal incomes, between the 81st and 82nd percentiles. The predominant income bracket is $1,500 - 2,999, with 41.3% of locals (4,046 people) falling into this category, similar to the metropolitan region at 30.3%. High housing costs consume 15.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 81st percentile nationally. Mount Duneed's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Mount Duneed is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Mount Duneed's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 97.3% houses and 2.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was not specified in the provided data. Home ownership in Mount Duneed stood at 21.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 55.5% and rented dwellings at 23.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Mount Duneed was $1,983, aligning with Non-Metro Vic.'s average. The median weekly rent figure for Mount Duneed was $446, whereas Non-Metro Vic.'s figures were not provided. Nationally, Mount Duneed's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Mount Duneed features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a median household size of 2.8 people

Family households account for 78.9% of all households, including 41.4% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 21.1%, with lone person households at 16.1% and group households comprising 5.0%. The median household size is 2.8 people.

Mount Duneed shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Mount Duneed's residents aged 15+ have a higher rate of university qualifications at 35.5% compared to the broader Victorian average of 21.7%. This is also above the SA4 region average of 28.6%. Bachelor degrees are most common, held by 24.8% of residents, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 35.7% of residents holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (23.2%). Educational participation is high, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including primary (12.0%), tertiary (6.6%), and secondary (6.2%) levels.

Mount Duneed has three schools with a combined enrollment of 910 students as of the latest data. The area's socio-educational conditions are above average, with an ICSEA score of 1051. All three schools focus on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mount Duneed has 24 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 14 different routes, collectively facilitating 1,736 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average located 376 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 248 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 72 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mount Duneed's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Mount Duneed's health outcomes data shows excellent results, with younger age groups having a notably low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 61% of Mount Duneed's total population of 6,000 people have private health cover, which is higher than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 9.0% and 8.9% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 73.6%, report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 0% across Rest of Vic. Mount Duneed has 744 residents aged 65 and over, comprising 7.6% of its population. While health outcomes among seniors are above average, they require more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Mount Duneed was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mount Duneed's population showed above-average cultural diversity, with 20.2% born overseas and 15.1% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 41.1%. The 'Other' religious category was overrepresented at 2.7%, compared to none in the rest of Victoria.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (27.3%), Australian (26.2%), and Irish (8.6%). Notably, Dutch (1.9%) Croatian (0.7%) and Polish (0.8%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Mount Duneed hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Mount Duneed has a median age of 31, which is lower than the Rest of Vic's figure of 43 and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 25-34 age group constitutes 22.0% of Mount Duneed's population, higher than the Rest of Vic., while the 65-74 cohort makes up 5.5%. This 25-34 concentration is significantly above Australia's national figure of 14.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 20.0% to 22.0%, and the 35 to 44 cohort has risen from 16.6% to 17.8%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 8.1% to 6.6%, and the 15 to 24 group has dropped from 11.6% to 10.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Mount Duneed's age structure. The 25-34 group is expected to grow by 37% (798 people), reaching 2,954 from 2,155. Meanwhile, both the 85+ and 75 to 84 age groups are projected to see reduced numbers.