Armstrong Creek (Vic.)

Armstrong Creek lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the Armstrong Creek (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2) has an estimated population of around 16,489. This reflects a growth of 5,242 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,247. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of resident population at 15,796 in June 2024, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 3,209 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 899 persons per square kilometer. Armstrong Creek's growth rate of 46.6% since the 2021 census exceeded both the non-metro area (7.9%) and national averages. Interstate migration contributed approximately 80.0% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch projects future population trends using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods. By 2041, the Armstrong Creek (Vic.) (SA2) is projected to grow by 17,335 persons, reflecting an increase of 96.4% over the 17-year period. This places it in the top 10 percent of national regional areas for growth.

The level of residential development activity in Armstrong Creek was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Armstrong Creek recorded approximately 793 residential properties granted approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 3,967 homes were approved, with an additional 309 approved in FY-26 to date. On average, 1.5 new residents arrived per new home over the past five financial years.

This indicates a balanced supply and demand dynamic, maintaining stable market conditions. The average construction value of new properties is $453,000, suggesting a focus on premium segment development.

Commercial approvals this year totalled $17.8 million, reflecting moderate commercial development levels. Recent construction comprises 95% detached houses and 5% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's traditional low-density character. There are approximately 18 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. By 2041, Armstrong Creek is projected to grow by 15,897 residents. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Armstrong Creek has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects that could affect this region. Notable initiatives include Harriott Armstrong Creek, Armstrong Creek Sports Centre, Warralily Quarter, and Glenlee. The following details projects expected to have the greatest influence.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Armstrong Creek shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Armstrong Creek has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.6% as of September 2025, with estimated employment growth of 0.6% over the previous year.

This is based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In comparison to Rest of Vic., Armstrong Creek had an unemployment rate 1.1% lower at 3.8%, and workforce participation was higher at 79.0%. Leading industries for residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance had particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing employed just 0.5% of local workers compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The area appeared to offer limited employment opportunities locally based on Census working population vs resident population data. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 0.6%, labour force by 1.2%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline by 0.7% and labour force by 0.6%. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 estimated total employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Armstrong Creek's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Armstrong Creek has a median taxpayer income of $59,881 and an average income of $74,619 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is higher than the national averages, which are $50,954 median and $62,728 average in Rest of Vic. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $64,821 median and $80,775 average. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Armstrong Creek rank highly nationally, between the 78th and 78th percentiles for households, families, and individuals. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 47.8% of residents (7,881 people), similar to regional levels where 30.3% fall into this bracket. High housing costs consume 16.9% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 76th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Armstrong Creek is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile

Armstrong Creek's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.0% houses and 5.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Home ownership in Armstrong Creek stood at 11.0%, with 54.1% of dwellings mortgaged and 34.9% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, while the median weekly rent was $420. Nationally, Armstrong Creek's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Armstrong Creek features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a median household size of 2.9 people

Family households account for 80.3% of all households, including 41.5% couples with children, 25.6% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 19.7%, with lone person households at 13.5% and group households comprising 6.0%. The median household size is 2.9 people.

Armstrong Creek shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Armstrong Creek's residents aged 15+ show high educational attainment, with 31.8% possessing university qualifications compared to the Rest of Vic's 21.7%. University graduates constitute 22.0%, postgraduates 6.3%, and graduate diplomas holders are at 3.5%. Vocational credentials are prominent among residents aged 15+, with 39.1% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (14.0%) and certificates (25.1%). Educational participation is notably high, with 33.1% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising primary education (11.7%), tertiary education (6.4%), and secondary education (5.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.7% in primary education, 6.4% in tertiary education, and 5.7% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Armstrong Creek has 48 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 20 different routes that together facilitate 1,568 weekly passenger trips. The transport system in the area is considered good, with residents on average located 258 meters from their nearest stop.

On average, there are 224 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 32 weekly trips per individual stop.

Armstrong Creek's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout Armstrong Creek.

Prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 56% (~9,281 people) of the total population has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 10.7% and 9.3% of residents respectively. 72.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 0% across Rest of Vic. As of 5th June 20XX, 5.4% (890 people) of residents are aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Armstrong Creek records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Armstrong Creek's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 19.4% born overseas and 14.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 38.1%. The most notable overrepresentation is in Other religions, comprising 2.2%, compared to None% in Rest of Vic.

The top three ancestry groups are English (27.9%), Australian (27.0%), and Irish (8.3%). Notably, Dutch (2.0%) Sri Lankan (0.4%), and Macedonian (0.3%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Armstrong Creek hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Armstrong Creek has a median age of 30 years, which is lower than both the Rest of Vic average of 43 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Rest of Vic., Armstrong Creek has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (25.0%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (3.4%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the percentage of residents aged 35 to 44 has increased from 17.5% to 19.3%, while the percentage of residents aged 55 to 64 has decreased from 5.7% to 4.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Armstrong Creek's age profile. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 109%, adding 4,502 residents to reach a total of 8,625 residents in that cohort.