Armstrong Creek (Vic.)

Armstrong Creek lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the population of Armstrong Creek (Vic.) is estimated at around 17,357. This represents a 6,110 person increase from the 2021 Census figure of 11,247, indicating a 54.3% growth rate. The resident population estimate of 16,046 by AreaSearch, based on latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024), and additional validated new addresses since the Census date, contributes to this increase. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 946 persons per square kilometer. Armstrong Creek's growth exceeded non-metro areas (6.0%) and national averages, making it a regional growth leader. Interstate migration accounted for about 80% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers contributing positively to growth.

AreaSearch projects future trends using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods for areas not covered by ABS data. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period 2025 to 2041, with Armstrong Creek expected to grow by 17,349 persons, reflecting an 86.7% increase in total population over these 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Armstrong Creek was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Armstrong Creek indicates approximately 800 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 4,003 homes were approved, with an additional 200 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, 1.5 new residents have arrived per new home over these five years, suggesting balanced supply and demand conditions.

The average construction value of new properties is $454,000. This year has seen $16.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity.

Recent construction comprises 95% standalone homes and 5% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low-density character. With around 19 people per dwelling approval, Armstrong Creek exhibits growth area characteristics. By 2041, AreaSearch projects a population increase of 15,043 residents. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Armstrong Creek has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Harriott Armstrong Creek, Armstrong Creek Sports Centre, Glenlee, and Armstrong Creek Mixed Use Precinct (465 Surf Coast Highway). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Armstrong Creek exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Armstrong Creek has a well-educated workforce. Essential services sectors are well represented there.

The unemployment rate is 2.9%. Employment growth over the past year is estimated at 1.4%, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, 8,205 residents are in work. The unemployment rate is 0.8% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is high at 79.0%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance has particularly notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.5% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.4%, and labour force increased by 2.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.0 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.9%, a labour force decline of 0.4%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer further insight into potential future demand within Armstrong Creek. These projections suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Armstrong Creek's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Armstrong Creek had a median taxpayer income of $59,804 and an average of $74,698 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This was above national averages, contrasting with Rest of Vic.'s median income of $48,741 and average income of $60,693. By September 2025, estimated incomes were approximately $67,076 (median) and $83,781 (average), based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since the financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, Armstrong Creek's household, family, and personal incomes ranked between the 78th and 78th percentiles nationally. Incomes of $1,500 - $2,999 dominated with 47.8% of residents (8,296 people), similar to regional levels where 30.3% fell into this bracket. High housing costs consumed 16.9% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 76th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Armstrong Creek is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Armstrong Creek, as per the latest Census, 95.0% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 5.0% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In contrast, Non-Metro Vic had no houses or other dwellings recorded. Home ownership in Armstrong Creek stood at 11.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 54.1% and rented ones at 34.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, aligning with Non-Metro Vic's average. The median weekly rent was $420, while Non-Metro Vic had no recorded data for rents. Nationally, Armstrong Creek's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and its rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Armstrong Creek features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a median household size of 2.9 people

Family households constitute 80.3% of all households, including 41.5% that are couples with children, 25.6% that are couples without children, and 12.3% that are single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 19.7%, with lone person households making up 13.5% and group households comprising 6.0%. The median household size is 2.9 people.

Armstrong Creek shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Armstrong Creek's educational attainment is notably higher than broader Victorian benchmarks. Among residents aged 15 and above, 31.8% hold university qualifications compared to the state average of 21.7%. This educational advantage is driven by a high proportion of Bachelor degrees (22.0%), postgraduate qualifications (6.3%), and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 39.1% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (14.0%) and certificates (25.1%).

Educational participation is high in Armstrong Creek, with 33.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (11.7%), tertiary education (6.4%), and secondary education (5.7%). The area's five schools have a combined enrollment of 3,601 students. Armstrong Creek demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1054. The educational mix includes two primary schools, one secondary school, and two K-12 schools. With 20.8 school places per 100 residents, the area shows strong educational infrastructure serving both local and surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Armstrong Creek shows that there are currently 48 active transport stops operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 7 individual routes providing service to the area. Together, these routes facilitate 1,156 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in Armstrong Creek is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 261 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 165 trips per day across all routes, which equates to around 24 weekly trips per individual stop.

Armstrong Creek's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout Armstrong Creek.

Prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high, approximately 56% of the total population (around 9,775 people). Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.7 and 9.3% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 72.8%, report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 0% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 5.4% of residents aged 65 and over (around 937 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Armstrong Creek was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Armstrong Creek had a cultural diversity above average, with 19.4% of its population born overseas and 14.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the main religion in Armstrong Creek, comprising 38.1% of people there. However, Other religions were overrepresented at 2.2%, compared to None% across Rest of Vic..

The top three parental ancestry groups were English at 27.9%, Australian at 27.0%, and Irish at 8.3%. Notably, Dutch (2.0%), Sri Lankan (0.4%), and Macedonian (0.3%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Armstrong Creek compared to regional averages of None% each.

Armstrong Creek hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Armstrong Creek has a median age of 30 years, which is lower than both the Rest of Vic average of 43 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Rest of Vic., Armstrong Creek has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (25.0%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (3.4%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 has increased from 17.5% to 19.3%, while the proportion of those aged 55 to 64 has decreased from 5.7% to 4.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Armstrong Creek's age profile will undergo significant changes. The most notable projected growth is in the 25-34 age group, with an increase of 99%, adding 4,289 residents to reach a total of 8,629.