Geelong
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Geelong are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Geelong's population is 13,699 as of November 2025. This shows an increase of 195 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,504. The change is inferred from ABS estimates of 13,736 in June 2024 and 97 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,068 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 92.4% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends forecast a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australia's regional areas, with Geelong expected to grow by 4,012 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 29.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Geelong among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Geelong has seen approximately 120 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 600 homes. As of FY-26, there have been four approvals recorded so far. On average, each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 has attracted 0.5 new residents per year. This suggests that new construction is keeping pace with or even exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially driving population growth beyond current projections.

The average expected construction cost value of these properties is $426,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. In FY-26, Geelong has registered $721.9 million in commercial approvals, reflecting high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Geelong has seen 17.0% less new development per person, yet it ranks among the 91st percentile nationally for development activity. Recent periods have shown an increase in this activity. New developments in Geelong consist of approximately 13.0% detached dwellings and 87.0% attached dwellings.

This trend towards denser development offers accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers. This shift marks a significant departure from the current housing pattern, which is predominantly composed of houses (67.0%). This change may be due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. Geelong has around 99 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low-density area. Future projections estimate that Geelong will add approximately 4,049 residents by 2041. Construction activity is maintaining pace with projected growth, although buyers may face increasing competition as the population grows.

Geelong has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 35thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 47 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Barwon Women's and Children's Hospital, Cunningham Place, Nyaal Banyul Geelong Convention and Event Centre, and Geelong Hospital Emergency Department Expansion. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Geelong has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Geelong has a well-educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.1% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.9%.

As of June 2025, 7,964 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.3% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Geelong was 63.4%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction, with notable concentration in the former at 1.3 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.7% versus the regional average of 7.5%.

There are 2.7 workers for every resident, indicating Geelong functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 1.9%, labour force by 2.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment fall by 0.9%, labour force contract by 0.4%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but local projections suggest Geelong's growth could be approximately 7.1%% over five years and 14.6% over ten years based on its employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Geelong had a median income among taxpayers of $53,582. The average income stood at $76,010. This is above the national average and compares to levels of $48,741 and $60,693 across Rest of Vic., respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for median income would be approximately $60,098 as of September 2025. Average income estimates for the same period are around $85,253. According to the 2021 Census, personal income ranks at the 58th percentile with $843 weekly, while household income sits at the 38th percentile. Income analysis reveals that 29.5% of Geelong's population (4,041 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the region where 30.3% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 84.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Geelong displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Geelong's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 67.1% houses and 32.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro Vic., on the other hand, had 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Geelong was at 31.7%, similar to Non-Metro Vic.'s level. Mortgaged dwellings constituted 27.3%, while rented dwellings were 41.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Geelong was $1,703, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,712. Median weekly rent in Geelong was $340, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $335. Nationally, Geelong's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,703 against the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less at $340 than the national figure of $375.

Geelong features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 56.1% of all households, including 20.0% couples with children, 26.2% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 43.9%, with lone person households at 37.2% and group households comprising 6.7%. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Geelong exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Geelong's educational attainment is notably higher than broader benchmarks. 37.0% of its residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the rest of Victoria and 27.3% in the SA3 area. This educational advantage is driven by a significant number of residents holding bachelor degrees (23.7%), postgraduate qualifications (8.9%), and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 31.2% of residents aged 15 and above having them, including advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (19.9%). Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.0% in tertiary education, 7.1% in primary education, and 5.1% pursuing secondary education.

Geelong operates a robust network of 9 schools educating approximately 2,633 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1035) and balanced educational opportunities. The area has 5 primary and 4 secondary schools serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Geelong has 124 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 37 routes, carrying out 9,756 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 178 meters to the nearest stop.

On average, there are 1,393 daily trips across all routes, equating to about 78 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Geelong is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Geelong faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is high at approximately 57% of the total population (~7,822 people), compared to 52.7% across the rest of Victoria.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 10.6% of residents and asthma impacting 8.6%. Sixty-six point three percent declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.9% across the rest of Victoria. Seventeen point two percent of residents are aged 65 and over (2,363 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

In terms of cultural diversity, Geelong records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Geelong's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, with 85.6% being citizens, 81.0% born in Australia, and 87.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 45.0%. Judaism is overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to 0.1% regionally.

The top three ancestry groups are English (27.7%), Australian (24.5%), and Irish (11.4%). Dutch (1.8%) and Croatian (0.9%) are notably overrepresented, while Scottish is slightly higher at 9.0%.

Geelong's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Geelong was 39 years as of 2021, significantly lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but closely aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Geelong had a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (21.0%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (7.3%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds was notably above the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, Geelong's median age decreased by 1.3 years, from 40 to 39, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. Key changes showed that the proportion of residents aged 25-34 grew from 17.6% to 21.0%, while those aged 35-44 increased from 12.2% to 13.4%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 declined from 12.2% to 10.4%, and those aged 55-64 dropped from 13.7% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Geelong's age profile. The number of residents aged 25-34 is projected to increase markedly by 1,838 people (64%), reaching 4,710 from the 2021 figure of 2,871. Meanwhile, numbers in the 55-64 age range are expected to decrease by 54.