Geelong
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Geelong are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Geelong's population is 13,750 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase from 13,504 in the 2021 Census, representing a rise of 246 people (1.8%). This change is inferred from ABS estimates: 13,736 in June 2024 and an additional 122 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is 1,072 persons per square kilometer, aligning with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 92.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends forecast a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australia's regional areas, with Geelong expected to grow by 4,012 persons by 2041, recording a gain of 29.1% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Geelong among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Geelong has seen approximately 120 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, with 600 dwellings approved over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, and 3 approvals recorded so far in FY-26. On average, about 0.5 new residents have been added per dwelling constructed each year between FY-21 and FY-25. New construction has kept pace with or exceeded demand, offering more buying options and enabling population growth that may surpass current projections.

The average value of new properties being constructed is $533,000, which is higher than regional norms but reflects quality-focused development. In the current financial year, commercial approvals totalling $721.9 million have been registered, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Geelong has 17.0% less new development per person, yet it ranks among the 91st percentile nationally for development activity. Recent periods have seen an increase in development activity. New development primarily consists of 87.0% attached dwellings and 13.0% detached dwellings, marking a shift from existing housing patterns, which are currently 67.0% houses.

This trend suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With approximately 99 people per dwelling approval, Geelong exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. Future projections indicate that Geelong will add around 3,998 residents by the year 2041. Construction is maintaining a steady pace with projected growth, although buyers may face growing competition as population increases.

Geelong has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 35thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence a region's performance. AreaSearch has identified 50 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Barwon Women's and Children's Hospital, Geelong Fast Rail, Nyaal Banyul Geelong Convention and Event Centre, and Geelong Hospital Emergency Department Expansion. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Geelong has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Geelong has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.1% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.9%.

As of June 2025, 7,964 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 1.3% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation stands at 63.4%, exceeding Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Health care & social assistance has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.7% compared to the regional average of 7.5%. There are 2.7 workers for every resident in Geelong, indicating it functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 1.9%, and labour force grew by 2.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment fell by 0.9% during the same period. State-level data from Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Geelong's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.1% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Geelong had a median taxpayer income of $53,582 and an average income of $76,010 in financial year 2022. These figures are higher than the national averages and compare to Rest of Vic's $48,741 and $60,693 respectively. By March 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $58,999 and average income $83,695, based on a 10.11% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, personal income ranks at the 58th percentile ($843 weekly) and household income at the 38th percentile. Income analysis shows that 29.5% of Geelong's population (4,056 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the regional trend where 30.3% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Geelong, with only 84.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Geelong displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Geelong, as evaluated at the Census conducted on 28 August 2016, comprised 67.1% houses and 32.9% other dwellings. In Non-Metro Vic., it was 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Geelong was at 31.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.3% and rented ones at 41.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,703, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $1,712. Median weekly rent in Geelong was $340, versus Non-Metro Vic.'s $335. Nationally, Geelong's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,863 and rents were less at $375.

Geelong features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 56.1% of all households, including 20.0% couples with children, 26.2% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 43.9%, with lone person households at 37.2% and group households making up 6.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Geelong exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Geelong's educational attainment significantly exceeds broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 37.0% have university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the rest of Victoria and 27.3% in the SA3 area. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 23.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 31.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (19.9%). Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.0% in tertiary education, 7.1% in primary education, and 5.1% pursuing secondary education. Nine schools operate within Geelong, educating approximately 2,633 students. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1035) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with five primary and four secondary schools serving distinct age groups. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Geelong has 124 active public transport stops serving a mix of train and bus services. These stops are covered by 37 individual routes that collectively facilitate 9,756 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 178 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 1,393 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 78 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Geelong is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Geelong faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 57% (~7,851 people) have private health cover, higher than the Rest of Vic's 52.7%.

Mental health issues affect 10.6% of residents, while asthma impacts 8.6%. About 66.3% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.9% across Rest of Vic. In Geelong, 17.2% (~2,371 people) are aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors in the area are above average, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

In terms of cultural diversity, Geelong records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Geelong's cultural diversity aligns with its wider region, with 85.6% being citizens, 81.0% born in Australia, and 87.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 45.0%. Judaism is overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to 0.1% regionally.

The top three ancestral groups are English (27.7%), Australian (24.5%), and Irish (11.4%). Dutch (1.8%) is notably overrepresented, as are Croatian (0.9%) and Scottish (9.0%), compared to regional averages of 2.0%, 1.5%, and 8.3% respectively.

Geelong's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Geelong was 39 years as of the 2021 Census, compared with Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and Australia's median of 38 years. In comparison to Rest of Vic., Geelong had a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (21.0%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (7.3%). This concentration of residents aged 25-34 was significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between the censuses of 2016 and 2021, Geelong's median age decreased by 1.3 years from 40 to 39, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. Key population changes included an increase in the 25-34 age group from 17.6% to 21.0%, and an increase in the 35-44 cohort from 12.2% to 13.4%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group declined from 12.2% to 10.4%, and the 55-64 age group decreased from 13.7% to 12.3%. Demographic projections suggest significant changes in Geelong's age profile by 2041. The 25-34 age cohort is expected to increase markedly, with an additional 1,828 people (a 63% increase) bringing the total to 4,710 residents. Meanwhile, the number of residents aged 55-64 is projected to fall by 61 people.