Molendinar

An assessment of population growth drivers in Molendinar reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census Molendinar's population is estimated at around 6709 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 259 people (4.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6450 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 6708 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 56 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 877 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 78.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. These state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of Australia's non-metropolitan areas is projected for Molendinar (SA2), expected to grow by 977 persons to 2041 reflecting a total increase of 14.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Molendinar, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Molendinar has averaged approximately 7 dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling around 38 homes. In FY-26 so far, 2 approvals have been recorded. This results in an estimated 1481 people per dwelling approval, reflecting a quiet development environment. The average number of new residents arriving per new home has increased from 1.2 over the past 5 financial years to 18.3 over the past 2 years, indicating growing popularity and potential supply constraints. New properties are constructed at an average value of $542,000, focusing on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

Commercial approvals this financial year total $21.6 million, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Molendinar has significantly less development activity, which is 76.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. All new construction has been detached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. Developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests, indicating strong demand for family homes despite density pressures.

Molendinar is expected to grow by 976 residents through to 2041, potentially leading to increased competition among buyers and stronger price growth if current development rates continue.

Molendinar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch identified 16 potential impact projects. Key initiatives include Foxwell Day Hospital & Health Precinct, Costco Wholesale Coomera, Westfield Coomera Shopping Centre, and Griffith University Gold Coast Campus Expansion. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Molendinar has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Molendinar has a skilled workforce with notable representation in lifestyle and retail sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.1% as of September 2024, with an estimated employment growth of 1.3%.

As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 6.1%, which is 1.0% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 5.1%. Workforce participation in Molendinar is 64.5%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and construction. The area has a strong specialization in accommodation & food, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.3% versus the regional average of 4.5%.

There are 1.2 workers for every resident, indicating Molendinar functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. During the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.3%, labour force increased by 2.2%, resulting in unemployment rising by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Qld experienced employment growth of 1.7% and labour force growth of 2.1%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows QLD employment contracted by 0.01% (losing 1,210 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%, broadly in line with the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Molendinar's employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Molendinar suburb has a median taxpayer income of $46,481 and an average income of $60,433, according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is below the national average, with Rest of Qld's median income being $53,146 and average income being $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $51,087 (median) and $66,422 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household income ranks at the 51st percentile ($1,767 weekly), while personal income sits at the 29th percentile. The earnings profile shows that 36.3% of locals (2,435 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 31.7% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 48th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Molendinar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Molendinar's dwelling structure in its latest Census report showed 84.2% houses and 15.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Qld's 44.5% houses and 55.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Molendinar was 23.0%, similar to Non-Metro Qld. Mortgaged dwellings were at 41.5% and rented ones at 35.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,850, above the Non-Metro Qld average of $1,750. The median weekly rent figure was $450 compared to Non-Metro Qld's $420. Nationally, Molendinar's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher at $375.

Molendinar features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 78.9% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 23.3% couples without children, and 15.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 21.1%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 6.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.3.

Molendinar shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 25.6% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Rest of Qld average of 20.6%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 5.7% and graduate diplomas at 2.2%. Vocational credentials are prominent with 36.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 24.5%.

Educational participation is high at 32.7%, with 10.5% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Molendinar has 22 active public transport stops. These are served by buses along five different routes. The total number of weekly passenger trips is 588.

Residents have good access to these stops, with an average distance of 299 meters to the nearest one. On average, there are 84 trips per day across all routes, which equals about 26 weekly trips per stop.

Molendinar's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Molendinar residents show relatively positive health outcomes.

Prevalence of common conditions is low across younger and older age groups. Approximately 51% (~3431 people) have private health cover, lower than Queensland's average. Mental health issues affect 8.1%, asthma affects 7.9%. 71.8% report no medical ailments, compared to 69.4% in Rest of Qld. 12.0% (805 people) are aged 65+, lower than Queensland's average of 17.1%. Health outcomes among seniors exceed averages, outperforming the general population.

Molendinar was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Molendinar has a significant level of cultural diversity, with 26.1% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 37.0% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Molendinar, making up 47.1% of people. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented compared to the rest of Queensland, comprising 0.3% of Molendinar's population versus 0.2%.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups are English (24.0%), Australian (20.5%), and Other (10.5%). There are also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups such as Korean (2.0% vs regional 1.6%), Maori (1.9% vs 1.6%), and New Zealand (1.4% vs 1.4%).

Molendinar's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Molendinar has a median age of 36, which is lower than the Rest of Qld figure of 41 and marginally lower than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of Qld average, Molendinar has an over-representation of the 15-24 cohort (16.3% locally) and an under-representation of the 65-74 year-olds (7.0%). Between 2021 and present, the 25 to 34 age group grew from 12.5% to 14.5%, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 14.8% to 16.3%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 13.3% to 11.7%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 15.3% to 14.0%. Demographic modeling indicates that Molendinar's age profile will significantly change by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to expand notably, increasing by 419 people (43%) from 972 to 1,392. Conversely, both the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.