Molendinar

An assessment of population growth drivers in Molendinar reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of the suburb of Molendinar is around 6,709 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 259 people (4.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,450 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 6,708 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 57 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 877 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 78.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. As we examine future population trends, an above median population growth of Australian non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the suburb of Molendinar expected to grow by 977 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 14.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Molendinar, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Molendinar has annually granted approval for approximately 7 residential properties since FY-21. Over the past five financial years, around 38 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of 1.2 people moving to the area per dwelling built over these years. However, this figure has accelerated to 18.3 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating increasing demand and tightening supply.

New homes are being constructed at an average value of $542,000, targeting the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, there have been $21.6 million in commercial approvals, reflecting moderate levels of commercial development compared to previous years. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Molendinar has shown reduced construction activity, with 76.0% below the regional average per person since FY-21. This scarcity of new properties typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Nationally, the area also reflects lower than average development levels, suggesting maturity and possible planning constraints.

Recent development in Molendinar has been entirely comprised of standalone homes, preserving its low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (84.0% at Census), reflecting persistent strong demand for family homes amid densification trends. The estimated count of 1481 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show Molendinar adding 976 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the area.

Molendinar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Foxwell Day Hospital & Health Precinct, Costco Wholesale Coomera, Westfield Coomera Shopping Centre, and Griffith University Gold Coast Campus Expansion. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Molendinar shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Molendinar has a skilled workforce with notable representation in lifestyle and retail sectors. Its unemployment rate was 5.1% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.3% over the past year, according to AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of this date, 3679 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.0% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%.

Workforce participation was fairly standard at 69.1%, compared to Rest of Qld's 65.7%. Based on Census responses from September 2025, a low 10.9% of residents worked from home. The dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and construction. Notably, employment in accommodation & food was at 1.4 times the regional average.

Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence with only 0.3% employment compared to the regional average of 4.5%. There were 1.2 workers for every resident as of the Census date, indicating that Molendinar functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.3% while labour force increased by 2.2%, resulting in a rise in unemployment by 0.8 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Qld recorded employment growth of 1.7%, labour force growth of 2.1%, and an increase in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Molendinar. These projections suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Molendinar's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Molendinar suburb had median taxpayer income of $46,481 and average income of $60,433 in financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages of $53,146 (median) and $66,593 (average). By September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $51,087 and average is $66,422, based on a 9.91% increase from financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranked at the 51st percentile ($1,767 weekly) and personal income at the 29th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band included 36.3% of Molendinar residents (2,435 individuals). Housing affordability pressures were severe with only 80.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 48th percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Molendinar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Molendinar, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 84.2% houses and 15.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Molendinar stood at 23.0%, with the rest either mortgaged (41.5%) or rented (35.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,850, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,655. The median weekly rent in Molendinar was recorded at $450, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $345. Nationally, Molendinar's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Molendinar features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.9% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 23.3% couples without children, and 15.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 21.1%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 6.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

Molendinar shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 25.6% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Rest of Qld average of 20.6%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent with 36.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (24.5%).

Educational participation is high at 32.7%, comprising primary education (10.5%), secondary education (8.9%), and tertiary education (6.6%).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Molendinar has 22 active public transport stops serving mixed bus routes. Five individual routes operate here, collectively offering 588 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 299 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward in this primarily residential area, where cars remain the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, above the regional average. Only 10.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census).

Service frequency averages 84 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop.

Molendinar's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Molendinar's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Common health conditions are seen at a standard level across both young and old age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low, with approximately 51% of the total population (~3,431 people) having it. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are mental health issues (8.1%) and asthma (7.9%), while 71.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.6% across Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 11.9% of residents aged 65 and over (798 people), which is lower than the 20.4% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than those of the general population.

Molendinar was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Molendinar has a high level of cultural diversity, with 26.1% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 37.0% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in Molendinar, comprising 47.1% of the population. Judaism is overrepresented in Molendinar compared to the rest of Queensland, making up 0.3% of the population versus 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English at 24.0%, Australian at 20.5%, and Other at 10.5%. Korean (2.0%), Maori (1.9%), and New Zealand (1.4%) ethnicities are notably overrepresented in Molendinar compared to regional averages.

Molendinar's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Molendinar's median age in 2021 was 36 years, which is lower than the Rest of Qld figure of 41 years and marginally lower than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of Qld average, Molendinar had a notably over-represented 15-24 cohort (16.4%) and an under-represented 65-74 year-old group (7.0%). Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 12.5% to 15.2%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 14.8% to 16.4%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort declined from 13.3% to 11.5% and the 45-54 group dropped from 15.3% to 13.8%. Demographic modeling suggests Molendinar's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to expand by 372 people (37%) from 1,019 to 1,392. Conversely, both 5-14 and 15-24 age groups are projected to see reduced numbers.