Molendinar

An assessment of population growth drivers in Molendinar reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Molendinar's population was estimated at 6,702 as of November 2025, based on AreaSearch analysis and ABS updates. This showed an increase of 3.9% since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,450. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 6,708 in June 2024, derived from latest ERP data release by ABS and validated new addresses. This resulted in a density ratio of 876 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 78.0% of overall gains.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023 were used, based on 2021 data. These state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applied proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023, based on 2022 data. Future population dynamics anticipate an above median growth for Australia's non-metropolitan areas. The suburb of Molendinar is projected to grow by 977 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 14.7% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Molendinar, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Molendinar has had approximately 7 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 38 homes. In FY26 so far, there have been 2 approvals. On average, Molendinar has seen about 1.2 new residents per year for each new home built between FY21 and FY25, indicating a balanced supply and demand in the housing market during that period. However, recent data shows this ratio increasing to 18.3 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, reflecting Molendinar's growing popularity and potential supply constraints. The average construction value of new properties is $542,000.

This year alone, there have been $21.6 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development in the area. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Molendinar has significantly less development activity, with 76.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new construction typically supports demand and pricing for existing dwellings. When compared nationally, Molendinar also reflects lower development activity, suggesting market maturity and potential development constraints. All new constructions in Molendinar have been detached dwellings, maintaining the area's low-density nature and appealing to space-seeking buyers.

This trend favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (84.0% at Census), indicating strong demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1481 people, reflecting Molendinar's quiet and low-activity development environment. Future projections estimate Molendinar will add 983 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

Molendinar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 16 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Foxwell Day Hospital & Health Precinct, Costco Wholesale Coomera, Westfield Coomera Shopping Centre, and Griffith University Gold Coast Campus Expansion. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Molendinar shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Molendinar has a skilled workforce with notable representation in lifestyle and retail sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.5% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.6%.

As of June 2025, 3700 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate is 0.6% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Molendinar is 64.5%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and construction. Accommodation & food has particularly high concentration, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.3% of Molendinar's workforce compared to Rest of Qld's 4.5%. The area functions as an employment hub with 1.2 workers per resident, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. In the 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 1.6% while labour force grew by 2.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Molendinar's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released on July 1st, 2022, Molendinar's median income among taxpayers is $46,481. The average income for the area was $60,433 during this period. This places Molendinar below the national average in terms of both median and average incomes. In comparison, the Rest of Qld had a median income of $50,780 and an average income of $64,844 during the same financial year. Based on Wage Price Index growth figures, which indicate a 13.99% increase since July 2022, current estimates suggest Molendinar's median income would be approximately $52,984 and the average income around $68,888 by September 2025. According to data from the 2021 Census, Molendinar's household income ranks at the 51st percentile ($1,767 weekly), while personal income sits at the 29th percentile. Income distribution shows that the predominant cohort in Molendinar is 36.3% of locals (2,432 people) who fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 category. This aligns with broader trends across the region where 31.7% of residents also fall into this income bracket. Housing affordability pressures in Molendinar are severe, with only 80.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 48th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it within the fifth decile.

Molendinar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Molendinar's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.2% houses and 15.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 44.5% houses and 55.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Molendinar was at 23.0%, similar to Non-Metro Qld's level. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (41.5%) or rented (35.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,850, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,750. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $450, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $420. Nationally, Molendinar's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Molendinar features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.9% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 23.3% couples without children, and 15.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.1%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households making up 6.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.3.

Molendinar shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 25.6% of residents aged 15+, surpassing the Rest of Qld average of 20.6%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 17.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 36.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 24.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education. Molendinar is home to Trinity Lutheran College, serving 1,325 students. The area displays above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1082). All one school offers integrated K-12 education, providing academic continuity throughout students' journey.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Molendinar has 22 active public transport stops operating currently. These are served by buses along five different routes. The total weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes is 588.

Residents' access to transport is rated as good, with an average distance of 299 meters to the nearest stop. Service frequency across all routes averages 84 trips per day, which translates to approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop.

Molendinar's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Molendinar residents have relatively positive health outcomes.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is at approximately 51% of the total population (~3,428 people), slightly lagging behind the average SA2 area. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 8.1 and 7.9% of residents respectively. 71.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.4% across Rest of Qld. The area has 12.0% of residents aged 65 and over (804 people), lower than the 17.1% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Molendinar is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Molendinar has a significant cultural diversity, with 26.1% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 37.0% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Molendinar, making up 47.1% of the population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented in Molendinar compared to the rest of Queensland, with 0.3% of the population identifying as Jewish.

The top three ancestry groups are English at 24.0%, Australian at 20.5%, and Other at 10.5%. Some ethnic groups show notable divergences: Korean is overrepresented at 2.0%, Maori at 1.9%, and New Zealand at 1.4% compared to regional averages.

Molendinar's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Molendinar's median age is 36, which is lower than the Rest of Qld figure of 41 and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 15-24 cohort in Molendinar is over-represented at 16.3%, compared to the Rest of Qld average, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 7.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 12.5% to 14.5%, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 14.8% to 16.3%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort declined from 13.3% to 11.7%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 15.3% to 14.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Molendinar's age profile will change significantly. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to expand by 420 people (43%), from 971 to 1,392. Conversely, both the 5-14 and 15-24 age groups are expected to decrease in number.