Molendinar

An assessment of population growth drivers in Molendinar reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Molendinar's population is estimated at around 6,707 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 257 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,450 people in the suburb. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release (June 2025) and validation of 56 new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 876 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. The primary driver for this growth was overseas migration contributing approximately 78.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted, with proportional growth weightings applied for age cohorts where necessary. Future population dynamics anticipate an above median growth for non-metropolitan areas, projecting the suburb to grow by 881 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 13.1% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Molendinar, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Molendinar has received approximately 7 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 38 homes. In FY26 so far, 7 approvals have been recorded. On average, about 1.2 new residents arrive per year for each new home built between FY21 and FY25. However, this has increased to 18 people per dwelling over the past two financial years. New properties are constructed at an average value of $542,000.

This financial year, $21.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Molendinar has significantly less development activity, with 76.0% below the regional average per person. New construction is completely comprised of detached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1481 people. By 2041, Molendinar is expected to grow by 881 residents.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth.

Molendinar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that may affect the region. Notable ones include Foxwell Day Hospital & Health Precinct, Costco Wholesale Coomera, Westfield Coomera Shopping Centre, and Coomera Connector Stage 1 - Central Section. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Molendinar has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Molendinar has a skilled workforce with notable representation in lifestyle and retail sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.2% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.5% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In December 2025, 3709 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.2% higher than Regional Qld's rate of 4%.

Workforce participation in Molendinar was 69.6%, exceeding Regional Qld's 64.5%. Census responses indicated that only 10.9% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and construction. Molendinar had a particularly strong specialization in accommodation & food, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 0.3% compared to Regional Qld's average of 4.5%. As of the Census, there were 1.2 workers for every resident, indicating that Molendinar functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. During the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.5% while labour force increased by 2.5%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Qld experienced employment growth of 0.7% and labour force growth of 1.0%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Molendinar. These projections suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth patterns differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Molendinar's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Molendinar suburb has a median taxpayer income of $46,481 and an average income of $60,433, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average. Regional Qld's median income is $53,146 with an average income of $66,593. By March 2026, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $51,761 and an average income of $67,298, based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year 2023. According to Census 2021 data, Molendinar's household income ranks at the 51st percentile ($1,767 weekly) and personal income at the 29th percentile. The earnings profile shows that 36.3% of locals (2,434 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. This is consistent with broader trends across regional levels, where 31.7% are in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 48th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Molendinar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Molendinar, as per the latest Census evaluation, 84.2% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 15.8% being semi-detached apartments, or other dwellings. In comparison, Regional Qld had 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Molendinar stood at 23.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.5% and rented ones at 35.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,850, higher than Regional Qld's average of $1,655. The median weekly rent in Molendinar was $450 compared to Regional Qld's $345. Nationally, Molendinar's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,850 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $450 against the national figure of $375.

Molendinar features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 78.9% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 23.3% couples without children, and 15.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 21.1%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 6.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Regional Queensland average of 2.5.

Molendinar shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates of 25.6% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Rest of Qld average of 20.6%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 17.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 36.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (24.5%) being prominent.

Educational participation is high, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.5% in primary, 8.9% in secondary, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Molendinar has 22 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together facilitate 588 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as good, with residents typically residing 299 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most Molendinar residents commute outwards, primarily using cars (92%). On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling in Molendinar, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, only 10.9% of Molendinar residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages 84 trips per day, equating to approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop.

Molendinar's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Molendinar's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Common health conditions are seen at a standard level across both young and old age cohorts in the area. Private health cover is relatively low, with approximately 51% of the total population (~3,430 people) having it. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (8.1%) and asthma (7.9%). A majority of residents, 71.8%, report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population in Molendinar are typical. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (12.5%, or 838 people) than Regional Qld's average of 20.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Molendinar are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Molendinar was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Molendinar's cultural diversity is notable, with 26.1% speaking a language other than English at home and 37.0% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 47.1% of Molendinar's population. Judaism, however, is overrepresented, making up 0.3%, compared to Regional Qld's 0.1%.

In terms of ancestry, English (24.0%) and Australian (20.5%) are the top groups but lower than regional averages of 29.6% and 26.5% respectively. 'Other' ancestry comprises 10.5%. Notably, Korean (2.0%), Maori (1.9%), and New Zealand (1.4%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to Regional Qld's 0.2%, 0.8%, and 0.9% respectively.

Molendinar's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Molendinar's median age is 36, which is lower than Regional Queensland's figure of 41, and slightly lower than Australia's median age of 38. The 15-24 cohort in Molendinar is notably over-represented at 16.4%, compared to the Regional Queensland average, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 7.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 12.5% to 14.9% of Molendinar's population, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 14.8% to 16.4%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort declined from 13.3% to 11.6%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 15.3% to 13.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Molendinar's age profile will change significantly. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to expand by 348 people (35%), growing from 999 to 1,348. Conversely, both the 5-14 and 15-24 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.