Carrara

Population growth drivers in Carrara are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Carrara's population, as estimated by AreaSearch using ABS updates and validated new addresses, was around 14,118 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 980 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,138. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 14,120 residents, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), and an additional 37 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,067 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carrara's growth rate of 7.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area average of 6.0%, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and interstate migration also being positive factors.

For projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia data for each SA2 area (released in 2024, based on 2022), and Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections for years post-2032 (released in 2023, based on 2021). Considering these projections, the suburb of Carrara is expected to grow by 1,519 persons to reach a total population of approximately 15,647 by 2041, reflecting an increase of 10.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrara recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Carrara had approximately 26 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 132 homes. As of FY-26, 58 approvals have been recorded. Historically, each new dwelling constructed has attracted an average of 8.2 new residents per year between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates supply is lagging demand, potentially leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

The average construction value of new homes in Carrara is $654,000, which is higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development. In FY-26, commercial development approvals amounted to $15.8 million, indicating steady investment activity. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Carrara has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 15th percentile nationally in terms of buyer choice, suggesting relatively constrained options for homebuyers. This supports interest in existing homes. The ratio of people to dwelling approvals in Carrara is approximately 1119, indicating an established market.

Population forecasts estimate Carrara will gain 1,535 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth. New development in Carrara consists of 40.0% standalone homes and 60.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers.

Carrara has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified a total of 23 projects likely to affect the area. Notable projects include Coomera Connector Stage 1 South, Nielsens Road Apartment Development, Serenity Estate - Gilston, and Carrara Stadium - 2032 Olympics Venue. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Carrara exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Carrara's workforce shows diversity across sectors, with an unemployment rate of 3.2% as of the past year, reflecting a 2.1% employment growth. As of June 2025, 7,690 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate at 0.7% below Rest of Qld's 3.9%.

Workforce participation is 63.1%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area specializes in arts & recreation, with an employment share twice the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.4% of local workers, below Rest of Qld's 4.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data.

Over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 2.1%, labour force grew by 2.0%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Qld where employment rose by 1.8%, labour force grew by 2.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carrara's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is an illustrative extrapolation not accounting for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Carrara's median income among taxpayers was $50,303 and average income was $61,171 in financial year 2022. This compares to Rest of Qld's figures of $50,780 and $64,844 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest median income will be approximately $57,340 and average income $69,729. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Carrara rank modestly, between the 39th and 43rd percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket dominates with 32.5% of residents (4,588 people), similar to the regional figure of 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carrara, with only 80.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 36th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Carrara displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Carrara, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 52.1% houses and 47.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 71.9% houses and 28.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrara was at 32.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.6% and rented dwellings at 28.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carrara was $1,900, below Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent figure in Carrara was $450, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $435. Nationally, Carrara's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carrara features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 71.0% of all households, including 28.0% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 29.0%, with lone person households at 24.7% and group households comprising 4.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.8.

Carrara shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Carrara trail's residents aged 15+ have university degrees at a rate of 23.2%, compared to Australia's 30.4%. This indicates potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees are most common (16.2%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.0% of residents holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 13.4% and certificates at 26.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.8% currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.9% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 4.5% in tertiary education. Carrara's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,748 students. The area demonstrates socio-educational advantages with an ICSEA score of 1107. All 3 schools offer integrated K-12 education for academic continuity.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrara has 29 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 7 different routes that collectively facilitate 1,033 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these stops is rated as good, with residents typically located 359 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 147 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Carrara are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Carrara's health indicators show below-average results, with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is held by approximately 51% of Carrara's total population (~7,262 people), which is somewhat lower than the average SA2 area. The most frequent medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 8.5% and 7.4% of residents respectively. Conversely, 68.9% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 69.5% across Rest of Qld. Carrara has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 21.1% (2,978 people) compared to the 16.7% in Rest of Qld. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Carrara are above average, even outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Carrara was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrara, found in a study to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, had 13.1% of its population speaking languages other than English at home and 29.5% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 51.7%. Judaism, however, showed an overrepresentation compared to regional averages, making up 0.3% versus 0.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (30.3%), Australian (22.9%), and Other (8.5%). Notably, New Zealanders were overrepresented at 1.4%, Maori at 1.1%, and South Africans at 0.8% compared to regional figures.

Carrara hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Carrara is 42 years, closely matching Rest of Qld's average of 41 but higher than Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 age cohort is notably over-represented in Carrara at 13.7%, compared to the Rest of Qld average, while the 5-14 age group is under-represented at 10.2%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 10.3% to 12.6%, and the 25-34 cohort increased from 12.6% to 13.7%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has declined from 12.9% to 11.1%, and the 5-14 age group dropped from 11.6% to 10.2%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Carrara. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to expand by 635 people (33%), growing from 1,934 to 2,570. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 5-14 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.