Molendinar

An assessment of population growth drivers in Molendinar reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Molendinar's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 6,707. This figure represents an increase of 257 individuals, a 4.0% rise from the 2021 Census count of 6,450 people. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 6,707 in June 2025 and 56 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 876 persons per square kilometer, similar to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed roughly 77.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. However, these state projections lack age category splits; thus, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings aligned with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort. Based on projected demographic shifts, Molendinar is expected to exhibit above median population growth among Australian non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the area's population is projected to expand by 880 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 13.1% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Molendinar, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Molendinar has averaged approximately seven new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 38 homes were approved, with an additional seven approved so far in FY26. On average, 1.2 people have moved to the area annually for each dwelling built over these five years. However, this rate has increased to 18.3 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $389,000. This year, $21.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating steady investment activity. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Molendinar has significantly reduced construction levels, at 76.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. The area's recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining its traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

New construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest, reflecting ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. As of now, there are an estimated 1662 people in the area per dwelling approval. Future projections show Molendinar adding 880 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Molendinar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that may affect this region. Notable initiatives include Foxwell Day Hospital & Health Precinct, Costco Wholesale Coomera, Westfield Coomera Shopping Centre, and Coomera Connector Stage 1 - Central Section. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Molendinar remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Molendinar has a skilled workforce with notable representation in lifestyle and retail sectors. The unemployment rate is 5.2%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.5% over the past year. As of December 2025, there are 3,709 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.2%.

This is higher than Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%. Workforce participation in Molendinar stands at 69.9%, exceeding Regional Qld's 64.5%. According to Census responses, only 10.9% of residents work from home. The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and construction.

Molendinar has a particular specialization in accommodation & food, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.3% of Molendinar's workforce compared to Regional Qld's 4.5%. There are 1.2 workers for every resident in Molendinar, indicating it functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 1.5% while labour force increased by 2.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Qld experienced employment growth of 0.7% and labour force growth of 1.0%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Molendinar's employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to its current employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Molendinar SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $48,908 and an average of $61,294 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, with Regional Qld having a median income of $53,146 and an average of $66,593. By March 2026, estimated median income would be approximately $54,464 and average income $68,257, based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year 2023. According to census data, household income ranks at the 51st percentile ($1,767 weekly), while personal income is at the 28th percentile. Income distribution shows 36.3% (2,434 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, consistent with surrounding region trends of 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 48th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Molendinar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Molendinar, as evaluated at the latest Census (2016), comprised 84.2% houses and 15.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Regional Qld had 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Molendinar was 23.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.5% and rented ones at 35.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,850, higher than Regional Qld's average of $1,655. Median weekly rent in Molendinar was $450, compared to Regional Qld's $345. Nationally, Molendinar's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,850 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $450 compared to the national figure of $375.

Molendinar features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 78.9% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 23.3% couples without children, and 15.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 21.1%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 6.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Regional Queensland average of 2.5.

Molendinar shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 25.6%, surpassing the Rest of Qld average of 20.6%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 17.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 36.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 24.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.7% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Molendinar has 22 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together provide 588 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Molendinar is rated as good, with residents typically located 299 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport, used by 92% of residents. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 10.9% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 84 trips per day, equating to approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop.

Molendinar's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Molendinar. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age cohorts. The rate of private health cover was relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~3,340 people), compared to 52.5% in Regional Qld and a national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues impacted 8.1% of residents, while asthma affected 7.9%. A total of 71.8% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population were broadly typical. The area had 12.4% of residents aged 65 and over (828 people), lower than the 20.4% in Regional Qld. Health outcomes among seniors were above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Molendinar was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Molendinar has a significant cultural diversity with 26.1% speaking a language other than English at home and 37.0% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, making up 47.1%. Judaism, however, is overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to Regional Qld's 0.1%.

In ancestry, the top groups are English (24.0%), Australian (20.5%), and Other (10.5%). Korean (2.0%) Maori (1.9%), and New Zealand (1.4%) ethnicities are notably overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.2%, 0.8%, and 0.9% respectively.

Molendinar's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Molendinar has a median age of 36, which is lower than the Regional Queensland figure of 41 and Australia's median age of 38. The 15-24 cohort is over-represented in Molendinar at 16.4%, compared to the Regional Queensland average, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 7.2%. Between 2021 and the present, the 25-34 age group has increased from 12.5% to 14.8% of the population, and the 15-24 cohort has risen from 14.8% to 16.4%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 13.3% to 11.6%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 15.3% to 13.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Molendinar's age profile will change significantly. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to expand by 349 people (35%), from 994 to 1,344. Meanwhile, both the 5-14 and 15-24 age groups are expected to decrease in number.