Molendinar

An assessment of population growth drivers in Molendinar reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Molendinar's population is around 6,709 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 259 people (4.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,450 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,708 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 57 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 877 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 77.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. As we examine future population trends, an above-median population growth for locations outside of capital cities is projected, with the area expected to grow by 977 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 14.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Molendinar, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Molendinar has seen around 7 new homes approved annually, totalling 38 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 4 approvals have been recorded. Given an average of 1.2 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, with recent figures showing this has accelerated to 18.3 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, suggesting increasing demand and tightening supply. Development projects average $389,000 in construction value. Additionally, $21.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

Relative to the rest of Qld, Molendinar records markedly lower building activity (76.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. This level is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. Furthermore, recent development has been entirely comprised of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (84.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. The estimated count of 1662 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Molendinar is expected to grow by 976 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Molendinar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 16 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Foxwell Day Hospital & Health Precinct, Costco Wholesale Coomera, Westfield Coomera Shopping Centre, and Griffith University Gold Coast Campus Expansion, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Molendinar has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Molendinar features a skilled workforce, with lifestyle and retail sectors notably represented, an unemployment rate of 5.2%, and 1.5% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 3,709 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.2% above Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (69.8% compared to Regional Qld's 65.4%). Based on Census responses, a low 10.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and construction. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in accommodation & food, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishing has a limited presence with 0.3% employment compared to 4.5% regionally. With 1.2 workers for every resident, as at the Census, the area functions as an employment hub, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.5% and the labour force increased by 2.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.9 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Qld recorded employment growth of 0.7%, labour force growth of 1.0%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Molendinar. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Molendinar's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Molendinar SA2's median income among taxpayers is $48,908, with an average of $61,294. This is below the national average, and compares to Regional Qld's median of $53,146 and average of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $53,755 (median) and $67,368 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household income ranks at the 51st percentile ($1,767 weekly), while personal income sits at the 28th percentile. Income brackets indicate the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 36.3% of residents (2,435 people), aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 48th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Molendinar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Molendinar, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 84.2% houses and 15.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Molendinar was lagging that of Regional Qld, at 23.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (41.5%) or rented (35.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Regional Qld average at $1,850, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $450, compared to Regional Qld's $1,655 and $345. Nationally, Molendinar's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Molendinar features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 78.9% of all households, comprising 39.0% couples with children, 23.3% couples without children, and 15.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 21.1%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 6.5% of the total. The median household size of 3.0 people is larger than the Regional Qld average of 2.5.

Molendinar shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile stands out regionally, with university qualification rates (25.6% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the Rest of Qld average of 20.6%, reflecting the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees lead at 17.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (24.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.7% of residents aged 15+ currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 22 active transport stops operating within Molendinar, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 5 individual routes, collectively providing 588 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 299 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A relatively low 10.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 84 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop.

Molendinar's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Molendinar, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show low prevalence of common health conditions, while the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~3,341 people). This compares to 52.5% across Regional Qld and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.1% and 7.9% of residents, respectively, while 71.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 12.0% of residents aged 65 and over (802 people), which is lower than the 20.4% in Regional Qld. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Molendinar was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Molendinar scores highly on cultural diversity, with 26.1% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 37.0% born overseas. The main religion in Molendinar is Christianity, which makes up 47.1% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Judaism, which comprises 0.3% of the population, compared to 0.1% across Regional Qld.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Molendinar are English, comprising 24.0% of the population (lower than the regional average of 29.6%), Australian, comprising 20.5% of the population (lower than the regional average of 26.5%), and Other, comprising 10.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Korean is notably overrepresented at 2.0% of Molendinar (vs 0.2% regionally), Maori at 1.9% (vs 0.8%), and New Zealand at 1.4% (vs 0.9%).

Molendinar's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

With a median age of 36, Molendinar is considerably lower than the Regional Qld figure of 41 and similarly marginally lower than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Regional Qld average, the 15 - 24 cohort is notably over-represented (16.4% locally), while 65 - 74 year-olds are under-represented (7.0%). In the period since 2021, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 12.5% to 15.2% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 14.8% to 16.4%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 13.3% to 11.5% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 15.3% to 13.8%. Demographic modeling suggests Molendinar's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, increasing by 373 people (37%) from 1,018 to 1,392. Conversely, both the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age groups will see reduced numbers.