Molendinar

An assessment of population growth drivers in Molendinar reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Molendinar's population was approximately 6,702 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 252 people from the 2021 Census count of 6,450. The growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 6,708 in June 2024 and 56 new validated addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 876 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 77.6% of overall gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, based on 2021 data and released in 2023. These state projections lack age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings using ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort. By 2041, the population is projected to increase by 977 persons, reflecting a 14.7% total rise over the 17 years based on the latest annual ERP population numbers. This indicates an above median population growth for Australian non-metropolitan areas.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Molendinar, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Molendinar has averaged approximately seven new dwelling approvals per year. Between financial years 2021-22 (FY-21) and 2025-26 (FY-25), 38 homes were approved, with two more approved in FY-26 as of the current date. Over these five financial years, an average of 1.2 people moved to the area for each dwelling built. However, this ratio has increased to 18.3 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

The average expected construction cost value for new homes is $389,000. This year, $21.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Molendinar has significantly lower construction levels, at 76.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

New construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (84.0% at Census), demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. The estimated population count per dwelling approval is 1662 people, reflecting its quiet and low activity development environment. Future projections show Molendinar adding 983 residents by the year 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Molendinar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Foxwell Day Hospital & Health Precinct, Costco Wholesale Coomera, Westfield Coomera Shopping Centre, and Griffith University Gold Coast Campus Expansion. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Molendinar remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Molendinar has a skilled workforce with notable representation in lifestyle and retail sectors. Its unemployment rate was 5.1% as of September 2024.

Over the past year, there was an estimated employment growth of 1.3%. As of September 2025, 3679 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.0% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation in Molendinar is well above standard at 64.5%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and construction.

Employment specialization is particularly high in accommodation & food, with a share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.3% of Molendinar's workforce compared to 4.5% in Rest of Qld. There are 1.2 workers for every resident, indicating that the area functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 1.3%, while labour force increased by 2.2%, resulting in a rise of 0.8 percentage points in unemployment rate. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows QLD employment contracted by 0.01% with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Molendinar's employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Molendinar SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $46,481 and an average of $60,433 in financial year 2022. This was lower than national averages, with Rest of Qld's median being $50,780 and average at $64,844. By September 2025, estimates project median income to be approximately $52,984 and average at $68,888, based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99%. Household incomes rank at the 51st percentile ($1,767 weekly), with personal incomes at the 28th percentile. Income distribution shows 36.3% (2,432 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 48th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Molendinar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Molendinar's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 84.2% houses and 15.8% other dwellings. In contrast, Non-Metro Qld had 44.5% houses and 55.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Molendinar was 23.0%, similar to Non-Metro Qld's figure. Mortgaged dwellings constituted 41.5%, while rented dwellings were at 35.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Molendinar was $1,850, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,750. The median weekly rent in Molendinar was $450, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $420. Nationally, Molendinar's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher at $450 versus the national figure of $375.

Molendinar features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 78.9% of all households, consisting of 39.0% couples with children, 23.3% couples without children, and 15.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 21.1%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 6.5% of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.3.

Molendinar shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 25.6% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Rest of Qld average of 20.6%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 17.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 36.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 11.9% while certificates make up 24.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Molendinar has 22 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together facilitate 588 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average located just 299 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 84 trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop.

Molendinar's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows Molendinar residents have relatively positive health outcomes. The prevalence of common health conditions is low across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 50% (~3,351 people) have private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues (8.1%) and asthma (7.9%) are the most common medical conditions in the area. About 71.8% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 69.4% across Rest of Qld. As of 2021, 12.0% (803 people) of Molendinar's population is aged 65 and over, lower than the 17.1% in Rest of Qld. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Molendinar was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Molendinar has a high level of cultural diversity, with 26.1% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 37.0% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Molendinar, making up 47.1% of people. However, Judaism is overrepresented compared to the rest of Queensland, comprising 0.3% of Molendinar's population versus 0.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are English at 24.0%, Australian at 20.5%, and Other at 10.5%. Notably, Korean (2.0%) and Maori (1.9%) are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.6% each.

Molendinar's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Molendinar's median age is 36, which is lower than the Rest of Qld figure of 41 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 15-24 cohort is over-represented in Molendinar at 16.4%, compared to the Rest of Qld average, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 7.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 12.5% to 14.6% of the population, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 14.8% to 16.4%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort declined from 13.3% to 11.7%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 15.3% to 14.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Molendinar's age profile will change significantly. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to expand by 416 people (43%), growing from 975 to 1,392. Conversely, both the 5-14 and 15-24 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.