Molendinar
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Molendinar reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Molendinar's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 6,708. This figure reflects an increase of 258 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,450. The change is inferred from ABS estimates: 6,708 in June 2024 and an additional 58 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 876 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are used, based on 2021 data and released in 2023. However, these state projections lack age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings using ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is expected by 2041, with the area projected to expand by 977 persons, reflecting a total increase of 14.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Molendinar, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Molendinar has averaged approximately seven new dwelling approvals per year. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, there were 38 homes approved. As of FY26, no new dwelling approvals have been recorded yet. On average, 1.2 new residents per year arrived per new home over the past five financial years.

However, recent data indicates this has intensified to 18.3 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $542,000. Additionally, $21.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating balanced commercial development activity. When compared to the Rest of Qld, Molendinar shows substantially reduced construction levels, with 76.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings.

Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. New construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest, demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes. The estimated count of 1662 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show Molendinar adding approximately 977 residents by 2041. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Molendinar has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 16 projects likely to impact the region. Notable initiatives include Foxwell Day Hospital & Health Precinct, Gold Coast University Hospital Sub-Acute Expansion, Costco Wholesale Coomera, and Westfield Coomera Shopping Centre. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Molendinar remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Molendinar's workforce is skilled with notable representation in lifestyle and retail sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.6%.

As of June 2025, 3700 residents are employed, an unemployment rate of 4.5%, which is 0.6% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Molendinar is 64.5%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and construction. Employment specialization is particularly high in accommodation & food, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.3% of Molendinar's workforce compared to Rest of Qld's 4.5%. There are 1.2 workers for every resident, indicating Molendinar functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 1.6% while labour force increased by 2.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows QLD employment contracted by 0.23%, with a state unemployment rate of 4.2%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with local growth projections for Molendinar estimated at approximately 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Molendinar's median taxpayer income was $46,481 and average was $60,433 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of Qld having a median income of $50,780 and average income of $64,844. As of March 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $51,924 (median) and $67,510 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. Census data shows household income ranks at the 51st percentile ($1,767 weekly) and personal income at the 29th percentile. Income distribution indicates 36.3% of Molendinar's population (2,435 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, slightly higher than the surrounding region's 31.7%. Housing affordability is severe, with only 80.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 48th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Molendinar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The structure of dwellings in Molendinar, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 84.2% houses and 15.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Qld's 44.5% houses and 55.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Molendinar was at 23.0%, similar to Non-Metro Qld. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (41.5%) or rented (35.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,850, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,750. The median weekly rent figure in Molendinar was $450, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $420. Nationally, Molendinar's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher at $450 versus the national figure of $375.

Molendinar features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.9% of all households, consisting of 39.0% couples with children, 23.3% couples without children, and 15.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 21.1%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 6.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.3.

Molendinar shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 25.6% of residents aged 15+, exceeding the Rest of Qld average of 20.6%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 17.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent with 36.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (24.5%).

Educational participation is high at 32.7%, comprising 10.5% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education. Molendinar is home to Trinity Lutheran College serving 1,325 students. It demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1082. All schools offer integrated K-12 education for academic continuity.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Molendinar's public transport analysis shows 22 active stops in operation, all of which are bus services. There are five different routes serving these stops, together offering 588 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents located an average of 299 meters from the nearest stop.

The service frequency averages 84 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop.

Molendinar's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows Molendinar residents have relatively positive health outcomes. Prevalence of common conditions is low across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 50% (~3,354 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues (8.1%) and asthma (7.9%) are the most common medical conditions in the area. Around 71.8% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Rest of Qld at 69.4%. Molendinar has 12.0% (804 people) of residents aged 65 and over, lower than Rest of Qld's 17.1%. Health outcomes among seniors in Molendinar are strong, even better than the general population's health metrics.

Molendinar is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Molendinar's cultural diversity is notable, with 26.1% speaking a language other than English at home and 37.0% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 47.1% of Molendinar's population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented in Molendinar at 0.3%, compared to 0.2% across Rest of Qld.

In terms of ancestry, English (24.0%), Australian (20.5%), and Other (10.5%) are the top groups represented. Some ethnic groups show significant differences: Korean is overrepresented at 2.0% in Molendinar compared to 1.6% regionally, Maori at 1.9% versus 1.6%, and New Zealand at 1.4%.

Molendinar's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Molendinar's median age in 2021 was 36 years, which is lower than the Rest of Qld figure of 41 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 15-24 cohort was notably over-represented at 16.4% locally compared to the Rest of Qld average. Conversely, those aged 65-74 were under-represented at 7.0%. Between 2021 and the present, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 12.5% to 14.6%, while the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 14.8% to 16.4%. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 13.3% to 11.7%, and the 45 to 54 age group has dropped from 15.3% to 14.0%. Demographic modeling indicates that Molendinar's age profile will significantly evolve by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to expand notably, with an increase of 415 people (43%) from 976 to 1,392. Conversely, both the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.